Predicting War: The Science of Geopolitical Forecasting

Logosofia no Dia a Dia · Apr 24, 2026 · 21m

What if you could foresee the next major conflict months before the first shot is fired? Geopolitical forecasting blends game theory, expert analysis, and AI to predict wars, economic fallout, and humanitarian crises. From Cold War-era scenario planning at RAND to modern machine learning models crunching satellite data, this episode dives into the methods—and limitations—of anticipating global conflict. We examine historical failures (like the Yom Kippur War intelligence breakdown) and cutting-edge tools like DARPA’s Snow Globe, where AI personas simulate crises. The stakes couldn’t be…