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Reading the Geopolitical Forecast in Oil Prices
The U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports just went live. Oil spiked. But here's the puzzle: WTI is still below April's highs, which means the market saw this coming. So how do you extract a real geopolitical forecast from commodity futures, options volatility, and prediction markets? This episode breaks down the three layers of market signals—the futures curve shape, options skew, and physical market confirmation—and explains why a thirty-dollar drop across the Brent curve tells you more than today's headline price. Plus: what Polymarket's ceasefire odds actually mean, and when to trust market…
The skinny
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