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Simulating Geopolitics Under Asymmetric Information
How a two-stage AI pipeline—combining Monte Carlo simulation with an LLM council—models ceasefire durability by forcing actors to make decisions with incomplete information. This episode unpacks the architecture, the divergences between stages, and what the method reveals about live crisis forecasting. Episode 2143 — myweirdprompts.com/n/2143 (permanent short link: myweirdprompts.com/476510)
The skinny
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