Latest / The Ben Ferguson Podcast / Biden & Dems Driving America off a Cliff with Government Shutdown
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: All right, So, as I am sitting here right now,
- 0:03Speaker 1: we are headed towards a government shutdown. Senator Cruz and
- 0:06Speaker 1: I we're talking about this. At what point do we
- 0:10Speaker 1: do this podcast? When do we record it? Well, it's
- 0:14Speaker 1: well after midnight now, and we were trying to see
- 0:17Speaker 1: if a deal was going to get done at this
- 0:19Speaker 1: point it has not gotten done yet. Now the question
- 0:23Speaker 1: is what should Republicans be fighting over. What should we
- 0:29Speaker 1: be asking for? What is a good deal, what is
- 0:33Speaker 1: a bad deal? How do you get to that magic
- 0:36Speaker 1: number two eighteen? And so, as I was sitting here
- 0:41Speaker 1: with Sender Cruise a moment and I said, look, let's
- 0:43Speaker 1: just have that conversation together. Let's talk it out, because
- 0:47Speaker 1: there's a lot of people online that are saying a
- 0:49Speaker 1: lot of things that are just not accurate about you know,
- 0:53Speaker 1: some people are wanting there to be less government spending
- 0:56Speaker 1: while also raising the debt ceiling, which doesn't make any
- 0:58Speaker 1: sense logically, if you want to cut government spending, then
- 1:02Speaker 1: why would we get rid of the dead ceiling. It's
- 1:04Speaker 1: a fair question to ask. So we're going to explain
- 1:07Speaker 1: it all to you. And what's going on this is
- 1:11Speaker 1: I actually think one of the most important shows that
- 1:14Speaker 1: I've ever been a part of, because look, whether you're
- 1:17Speaker 1: dealing with the government shut down and you're dealing with
- 1:19Speaker 1: trillions of dollars in spending and you're dealing with a
- 1:22Speaker 1: lot of pork ball spending that we're trying to stop. Yes,
- 1:26Speaker 1: this is really important because this is what I mean,
- 1:29Speaker 1: the average Americans working what three and a half months
- 1:32Speaker 1: four months a year to pay their taxes and they're
- 1:35Speaker 1: abusing your tax dollars the way that they are. So
- 1:38Speaker 1: this is a conversation that's important that we should have.
- 1:41Speaker 1: So with that being said, here are four principles that
- 1:45Speaker 1: center Cruise and I came up with to talk about
- 1:47Speaker 1: what's going on now. Now, I want to be clear,
- 1:49Speaker 1: this is not going to be what you see from
- 1:51Speaker 1: like online an X. Okay, this is a different conversation.
- 1:55Speaker 1: But first I want to talk to you real quick
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- 2:07Speaker 1: what you receive when you're a member. I've had to
- 2:10Speaker 1: carry a firearm and I've had to pull the trigger
- 2:12Speaker 1: and I had to save my life one night, and
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- 2:35Speaker 1: many of us carry a firearm. Well, you've got to
- 2:38Speaker 1: protect yourself and protect your Second Amendment rights, and you
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- 3:10Speaker 1: Insurance to make sure you and your family are prepared
- 3:12Speaker 1: for anything. Now, I also want to give you a
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- 3:27Speaker 1: Text the word America to eight seven two two two
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- 3:42Speaker 1: defense gear that you need before it's too late. So
- 3:44Speaker 1: text the word America eight seven two to two right now.
- 3:48Speaker 1: Now here are four principles the center Cruise and I
- 3:52Speaker 1: came up with talk about what's going on. Now. Now,
- 3:54Speaker 1: I want to be clear, this is not going to
- 3:55Speaker 1: be what you see from like online an X. Okay,
- 3:58Speaker 1: this is a different conversation because I want you to
- 4:02Speaker 1: understand the CR. I want you understand why it's happening.
- 4:04Speaker 1: I want you to understand all aspects of it. So
- 4:07Speaker 1: I want you to understand the CR. I want you
- 4:09Speaker 1: understand why it's happening. I want you to understand all
- 4:11Speaker 1: aspects of it. So with that being said, here's my
- 4:14Speaker 1: conversation that Senator Cruise and I just had. All right,
- 4:18Speaker 1: so this is an interesting conversation center about what's happening
- 4:22Speaker 1: in Washington.
- 4:22Speaker 2: And look, there's.
- 4:24Speaker 1: The politics of it that everybody's obsessed with and pointing fingers.
- 4:29Speaker 1: I love doing this show because I think we can
- 4:32Speaker 1: look at it a little bit differently. I want people
- 4:35Speaker 1: to understand, starting off with what is actually being fought over,
- 4:39Speaker 1: and that is a CR. Can you explain in layman's
- 4:42Speaker 1: terms what a CR is? Why we keep having these
- 4:46Speaker 1: over Christmas time? And is this the normal way that
- 4:50Speaker 1: government does work or is this abnormal?
- 4:53Speaker 2: Yeah, look, it's a very good question.
- 4:55Speaker 3: People are very confused about it. And let me do
- 4:57Speaker 3: my best to explain number one, what this fight is about,
- 5:01Speaker 3: and then some basic principles to think about it, because
- 5:04Speaker 3: there are a lot of people who are right now yelling,
- 5:08Speaker 3: but it's hard to understand what's going on. So for
- 5:11Speaker 3: the federal government to operate, Congress has to appropriate funds.
- 5:15Speaker 3: Appropriating funds is voting to spend money. Unless Congress appropriates funds,
- 5:21Speaker 3: money can't be spent. Now, there are three principal ways
- 5:26Speaker 3: money gets appropriated. The first and the best one is
- 5:29Speaker 3: Congress actually passing appropriation bills through the regular Order, through
- 5:35Speaker 3: the process of legislating. There are typically thirteen appropriations bills
- 5:40Speaker 3: for each of the major cabinet areas and subject matters,
- 5:44Speaker 3: and the way it should operate is Congress takes up
- 5:46Speaker 3: an appropriation bill, the House passes that, the Senate passes
- 5:49Speaker 3: at the President signs it. That's the way it normally works.
- 5:52Speaker 3: It almost never works that way anymore, especially when you
- 5:55Speaker 3: have what we have now, which is divided government. We
- 5:58Speaker 3: have right now a Publican House barely a very very
- 6:02Speaker 3: small Republican majority in the House. We have a Democrat
- 6:05Speaker 3: Senate and Democrat President, and so as a result, appropriations
- 6:09Speaker 3: bills will not pass, and they will not pass because
- 6:12Speaker 3: the Republican House and the Democrats Senate fundamentally disagree on
- 6:15Speaker 3: what should be in those appropriation bills. There's a second
- 6:18Speaker 3: way you fund the government, and that's through what's called
- 6:21Speaker 3: an omnibus, or sometimes you call it a minibus. Basically,
- 6:24Speaker 3: what that is is a bunch of appropriation bills jammed together.
- 6:28Speaker 3: So instead of thirteen separate bills you can get an
- 6:32Speaker 3: omnibus would be all thirteen. A minibus is sometimes say
- 6:36Speaker 3: four or five, six of them, but it is a
- 6:38Speaker 3: specific appropriation for a portion of government. That is frequently
- 6:42Speaker 3: how things are done, all crammed together. Again, we can't
- 6:45Speaker 3: get agreement doing it in divided government is very difficult,
- 6:48Speaker 3: and I will point out that Joe Biden and the
- 6:50Speaker 3: Democrats are providing the zero leadership to do anything other
- 6:54Speaker 3: than embracing radical positions that of course Republicans in the
- 6:57Speaker 3: House aren't going to agree with. So the third way,
- 7:00Speaker 3: and there are really only three, is what's called a
- 7:02Speaker 3: continuing resolution. So a continuing resolution typically does not specify
- 7:07Speaker 3: how how money will be appropriated. It simply says, what
- 7:11Speaker 3: we're doing now, let's continue going forward, and a continuing
- 7:15Speaker 3: resolution is typically for a set period of time. Continuing
- 7:21Speaker 3: resolution is usually abbreviated a CR, and a CR basically said,
- 7:25Speaker 3: a continued resolution basically says what we're spending today, keep
- 7:28Speaker 3: spending tomorrow. And you sometimes will get a You can
- 7:32Speaker 3: get a long term CR, like you could get say
- 7:34Speaker 3: a year long CR that says for the next year,
- 7:36Speaker 3: we're just going to spend what we're spending right now.
- 7:39Speaker 3: You can get a short term CR. Sometimes crs are short,
- 7:42Speaker 3: as short as a day or two or a week
- 7:44Speaker 3: or more. Now, why is this fight happening? This fight
- 7:47Speaker 3: is happening because at midnight Friday night, funding for the
- 7:52Speaker 3: government expires, and that was set in the last funding battle.
- 7:57Speaker 3: Congress funded it through mid night Friday night. That means
- 8:02Speaker 3: at twelve oh one am on Saturday, funding for the
- 8:05Speaker 3: government will expire. Now, if we get to twelve oh
- 8:07Speaker 3: one am, and I got to say sitting here right now,
- 8:10Speaker 3: that seems like a very likely outcome that we're going
- 8:12Speaker 3: to get to twelve oh one without this being resolved.
- 8:15Speaker 3: The result will be a quote unquote government shutdown. Now,
- 8:19Speaker 3: what does a government shutdown mean? Well, that phrase is
- 8:23Speaker 3: overstated because much of government does not shut down. Number one,
- 8:28Speaker 3: mandatory spending. Mandatory spending is government spending that is written
- 8:32Speaker 3: that is automatically spent, that doesn't need to be appropriated.
- 8:35Speaker 3: Mandatory spending is not affected. What does that mean. It
- 8:37Speaker 3: means so security checks will go out regardless. It means
- 8:40Speaker 3: Medicare will go out regardless, It means Medicaid will go
- 8:43Speaker 3: out regardless. It means anything that is written as mandatory
- 8:48Speaker 3: spending happens regardless, because you don't need appropriations. That's just
- 8:53Speaker 3: written to automatically be spent. What else does it mean, Well,
- 8:57Speaker 3: if you have a government shutdown, it is existing law
- 9:01Speaker 3: that even in the case of a shutdown, when Congress
- 9:03Speaker 3: has not appropriated funds, essential services continue. So for example,
- 9:09Speaker 3: if at twelve oh one am on Friday we have
- 9:12Speaker 3: a government shutdown, the military is not going to suddenly
- 9:15Speaker 3: cease to operate. We have soldiers and sailors and airmen
- 9:18Speaker 3: and marines who are deployed in harm's way. The military
- 9:23Speaker 3: is the very definition of essential services, so they'll continue
- 9:27Speaker 3: to defend this nation. It means that there are a
- 9:30Speaker 3: host of positions throughout government that are deemed essential, and
- 9:34Speaker 3: by the way, that's decided typically agency by agency.
- 9:39Speaker 2: It is up to.
- 9:41Speaker 3: Each agency to decide how many which ones of their
- 9:45Speaker 3: employees are essential. At some cabinet departments, you take it
- 9:49Speaker 3: to a cabinet department like the Commerce department. Historically you
- 9:53Speaker 3: have seventy percent or more of the employees that are
- 9:55Speaker 3: deemed non essential. If you're deemed non essential, when there's
- 9:58Speaker 3: a government shut down, you stay home, you don't go
- 10:00Speaker 3: to work, you don't do anything. And by the way,
- 10:05Speaker 3: typically all government employees stopped being paid. So one of
- 10:09Speaker 3: the consequences of a shutdown is if you're a federal
- 10:12Speaker 3: government employee, your paycheck doesn't come Now. Sometimes Congress will
- 10:17Speaker 3: make exceptions so for example and pass shutdowns. We have
- 10:22Speaker 3: made exceptions with some frequency for active duty military, but
- 10:25Speaker 3: that actually takes Congress moving in and legislating and saying,
- 10:28Speaker 3: you know what, We're going to pay our soldiers, sailors, airmen,
- 10:31Speaker 3: and marines. But if Congress doesn't act, they don't get paid.
- 10:36Speaker 3: In the last big shutdown we had when Trump was president,
- 10:39Speaker 3: I went to the Senate floor and fought to pay
- 10:42Speaker 3: coast guardsmen. Look, the Coastguard was saving people who were drowning,
- 10:46Speaker 3: they were guarding our border, they were working, and yet
- 10:49Speaker 3: they weren't being paid. And the Democrats stood up and
- 10:52Speaker 3: objected to paying coast guardsmen during the shutdown. So the
- 10:56Speaker 3: basic principle is the vast majority of federal government employees
- 11:02Speaker 3: don't get paid during a shutdown. And by the way,
- 11:05Speaker 3: if you're a young enlisted man, I mean you might
- 11:08Speaker 3: need like your paycheck to pay your rent next month.
- 11:13Speaker 3: You might need your paycheck to pay your food. Like
- 11:15Speaker 3: many of these these government employees are not wealthy and
- 11:18Speaker 3: they are living paycheck to paycheck, So having the paycheck
- 11:21Speaker 3: stop puts real burdens, particularly on the load to median
- 11:25Speaker 3: income federal workers. On top of that, when the shutdown ends,
- 11:32Speaker 3: the federal workers all get paid. They get paid back pay.
- 11:34Speaker 3: So what we end up doing is having a significant
- 11:37Speaker 3: chunk of federal workers not work for a period of time,
- 11:41Speaker 3: and then they don't get paid during that period of time,
- 11:43Speaker 3: and then after the fact they get paid on the
- 11:44Speaker 3: back end. So we waste a bunch of government money.
- 11:48Speaker 3: That's what's at stake. Now, how do we think through
- 11:51Speaker 3: this fight? What does it mean? I'm going to suggest
- 11:54Speaker 3: four key principles that are important. I want to start
- 11:58Speaker 3: with one that that almost no one talking about this
- 12:02Speaker 3: is talking about. But it's a very simple one count
- 12:06Speaker 3: to eighteen. I want to repeat that ben count to eighteen.
- 12:11Speaker 3: To eighteen is a majority of the House of Representatives.
- 12:14Speaker 3: The House Representatives has four hundred and thirty five representatives.
- 12:17Speaker 3: Two hundred eighteen is half of it. Unless you have
- 12:20Speaker 3: absences or vacancies. Nothing can pass the House without two
- 12:25Speaker 3: hundred and eighteen votes. So we have seen there have
- 12:28Speaker 3: been two different attempts so far by House leadership to
- 12:33Speaker 3: pass a CR continuing resolution. The first attempt was a
- 12:37Speaker 3: continuing resolution that extended until the middle of March, and
- 12:40Speaker 3: it included a variety of different programs. Now, I want
- 12:44Speaker 3: you to understand I want you to imagine for a second, Ben,
- 12:47Speaker 3: that you wake up tomorrow morning and your name is
- 12:51Speaker 3: Mike Johnson, You're the Speaker of the House. I want
- 12:53Speaker 3: you to engage in some simple math. You need to
- 12:55Speaker 3: get to eighteen.
- 12:56Speaker 1: Okay, if you don't get to two eighteen, my life.
- 12:59Speaker 1: I don't think want to get to that name in
- 13:01Speaker 1: the morning, because I know how stressful that job's got
- 13:03Speaker 1: to be.
- 13:04Speaker 3: So I want to walk through just the simple reality
- 13:07Speaker 3: that Mike is facing.
- 13:08Speaker 2: He needs to eighteen.
- 13:11Speaker 3: Now, a continuing resolution continues funding. The current discussion is
- 13:16Speaker 3: through mid March. On top of that, you've got a
- 13:20Speaker 3: significant number of House members who are insisting at least
- 13:23Speaker 3: two things be included in the continuing resolution. Number one
- 13:28Speaker 3: is one hundred and ten billion dollars in funding for
- 13:31Speaker 3: farmers and ranchers and ag that have just been hammered
- 13:34Speaker 3: across this country. So if you don't add that money
- 13:37Speaker 3: for farmers and ranchers and ags, you lose dozens of Republicans,
- 13:42Speaker 3: you lose a ton of votes if you.
- 13:44Speaker 2: Don't have AG there.
- 13:46Speaker 3: So you're sitting there going, Okay, we need to take
- 13:48Speaker 3: care of our farmers and ranchers.
- 13:49Speaker 2: We need to have that money.
- 13:51Speaker 3: Secondly, you've got disaster relief, and in particular two states
- 13:56Speaker 3: that have been just hammered by disasters recently, Florida and
- 14:00Speaker 3: North Carolina. Now the Florida and North Carolina members are saying,
- 14:03Speaker 3: if you do not have disaster relief in this bill,
- 14:06Speaker 3: I'm voting no. So here's the challenge. The first version,
- 14:11Speaker 3: Mike Johnson sits down, he extends government funding, he puts
- 14:15Speaker 3: funding for farmers and ranchers in there, he puts disaster
- 14:18Speaker 3: relief in there. Now, there are a significant number of
- 14:22Speaker 3: Republicans who is a matter of principles, say they will never,
- 14:26Speaker 3: ever ever vote for a continuing resolution. So if you're
- 14:30Speaker 3: only looking to Republicans, you can't get to too eighteen
- 14:34Speaker 3: because they're a bunch of them. They're going to vote no,
- 14:36Speaker 3: no matter what. They're just like no, no, no, I
- 14:39Speaker 3: will not vote yes.
- 14:40Speaker 2: I'm a no.
- 14:42Speaker 3: So you're Mike Johnson, You've got to get to get
- 14:43Speaker 3: to eighteen. You look at Republicans. There are not two
- 14:46Speaker 3: hundred and eighteen Republicans who will vote yes. Your only
- 14:50Speaker 3: choice is to get Democrat votes. If you've got to
- 14:53Speaker 3: get to to eighteen, where you'd like to start is
- 14:56Speaker 3: give me two hundred and eighteen Republicans.
- 14:59Speaker 2: There are not.
- 15:00Speaker 3: I don't believe they're two hundred and eighteen Republicans who
- 15:02Speaker 3: will vote vote for any CR. That means you must
- 15:06Speaker 3: get Democrats. Now, Democrats, let's look at something like relief
- 15:12Speaker 3: for farmers and ranchers. Most Democrats today, the Democrats by
- 15:16Speaker 3: and large don't care about farmers and ranchers. So the
- 15:18Speaker 3: Democrats are like, I'm not going to vote for aid
- 15:20Speaker 3: for farmers and ranchers. Why would I do that? And
- 15:23Speaker 3: Florida and North Carolina are both Republican states, so most
- 15:26Speaker 3: of the Democrats are like, why would I give disaster
- 15:28Speaker 3: relief to Florida and North Carolina. I'm not from there.
- 15:31Speaker 3: I'm a liberal New Yorker. Why would I help out Florida?
- 15:34Speaker 3: And so what happens is the Democrats say, Okay, if
- 15:39Speaker 3: you want my vote, I need X, Y, and Z.
- 15:43Speaker 3: Now these are demands made by Democrat members of Congress.
- 15:47Speaker 3: So they're bad, they're bad policies, they're terrible. And so
- 15:52Speaker 3: the first bill that Mike Johnson rolled out had some
- 15:56Speaker 3: elements in it that were really bad. Now I don't
- 15:59Speaker 3: like elements that are bad. But what is Mike Johnson
- 16:05Speaker 3: supposed to do? If there were two hundred and eighteen
- 16:07Speaker 3: Republican votes there, he would not have to agree to
- 16:11Speaker 3: really bad Democrat provisions. There are a bunch of Republicans
- 16:15Speaker 3: who are like, hell, no, no matter what, I won't
- 16:17Speaker 3: vote for you. So Mike Johnson, on the first version,
- 16:23Speaker 3: I think, felt he had no choice but get the
- 16:25Speaker 3: Democrat votes.
- 16:26Speaker 2: To pass it.
- 16:27Speaker 3: Now, when he rolled it out, Twitter went crazy and
- 16:31Speaker 3: a whole bunch of people criticized it, and they said,
- 16:33Speaker 3: there are Democrat provisions in here that are terrible. Now,
- 16:37Speaker 3: mind you just remember the very simple principal, count to
- 16:41Speaker 3: two eighteen. If you can get to two eighteen and
- 16:43Speaker 3: a better bill, awesome. And by the way, two eighteen
- 16:46Speaker 3: doesn't even get it done because you've also got to
- 16:48Speaker 3: get it to pass the Senate, which Chuck Schumer and
- 16:50Speaker 3: the Democrats control. But let's just focus on the House.
- 16:54Speaker 3: If you can't get to two eighteen, nothing will pass.
- 16:57Speaker 3: All right, let me talk about a second principle. I've
- 16:59Speaker 3: got four principle that I want to lay out. Number
- 17:01Speaker 3: one is count to eighteen. And just remember this, because
- 17:04Speaker 3: almost all of the commentary is ignoring the fact that
- 17:08Speaker 3: nothing will pass unless you can get to to eighteen.
- 17:11Speaker 3: And by the way, so the first bill Johnson had
- 17:18Speaker 3: a cr through mid March, had far made, had disaster relief,
- 17:24Speaker 3: and had a bunch of gives he had to give
- 17:26Speaker 3: to Democrats because he had to get Democrat votes to
- 17:28Speaker 3: get it to pass. Twitter went crazy, blasted him, you
- 17:33Speaker 3: terrible rhino. How could you possibly propose? Democrat asks, Well,
- 17:38Speaker 3: the answer would be because he's got to get to
- 17:40Speaker 3: eighteen and so the first one crashed and burned. Then
- 17:45Speaker 3: Trump wants to raise the debt ceiling. Now what's the
- 17:48Speaker 3: death ceiling. Let's talk about that, because there's sort of
- 17:52Speaker 3: two elements in these battles. One is funding the government.
- 17:56Speaker 3: The other is the debt ceiling, which is a cap
- 17:58Speaker 3: on how much the federal government can borrow. Now every
- 18:04Speaker 3: president hates the death ceiling. When Trump is president, he's
- 18:10Speaker 3: got to raise the debt ceiling because if he doesn't
- 18:13Speaker 3: raise the death ceiling, we will run into the death ceiling.
- 18:17Speaker 3: And if we did not actually raise it, the United
- 18:20Speaker 3: States would default on its debt, which would be disastrous
- 18:23Speaker 3: for this country. So Trump wants to raise the death ceiling.
- 18:28Speaker 3: Now Trump is also angry with Kevin McCarthy, the former
- 18:32Speaker 3: Speaker of the House, because he extended the dead ceiling.
- 18:34Speaker 3: The death ceiling is scheduled to expire next summer. I
- 18:37Speaker 3: think June or July, I don't remember, but next summer.
- 18:40Speaker 3: So six months into the Trump presidency the dead ceilings
- 18:43Speaker 3: scheduled to hit, and Trump is very focused on He's
- 18:47Speaker 3: mad at McCarthy, very mad at McCarthy. That's six months
- 18:52Speaker 3: into his presidency. He's going to hit the death ceiling
- 18:54Speaker 3: because he's got to raise it. And that's true of
- 18:57Speaker 3: every president. And so Trump is demanding, he says, part
- 19:00Speaker 3: of this continuing the resolution raising the debt ceiling.
- 19:05Speaker 2: So he demanded that.
- 19:07Speaker 3: Well, Mike Johnson came back as a second version, and
- 19:09Speaker 3: he came back with what was called a skinny cr
- 19:13Speaker 3: So it included funding for the government through mid March.
- 19:18Speaker 3: It included farm relief, and it included disaster relief. So
- 19:22Speaker 3: those are the asks principally a Republicans. And because Trump
- 19:27Speaker 3: demanded it, it suspended the debt ceiling for two years.
- 19:31Speaker 3: So it gave two of the four years of the
- 19:33Speaker 3: Trump presidency no debt ceiling, which is what Trump is
- 19:36Speaker 3: insisting being this bill. So this second bill was by
- 19:41Speaker 3: and large the bill that was being demanded by Republicans. Well,
- 19:45Speaker 3: we had a vote tonight.
- 19:47Speaker 2: What was the vote result? Then it didn't pass.
- 19:52Speaker 3: Okay, As I said, rule number one is count to
- 19:54Speaker 3: two eighteen. The vote was one hundred and seventy four
- 20:00Speaker 3: to two hundred and thirty five. Now I'm going to
- 20:03Speaker 3: make a simple observation. One hundred and seventy four is
- 20:05Speaker 3: not to eighteen. One hundred and seventy four of the
- 20:07Speaker 3: s is two thirty five of the No's the breakdown.
- 20:12Speaker 3: Every Democrat but two voted no. Look, the Democrats want
- 20:17Speaker 3: Trump to fail, so they're all happy to vote no.
- 20:20Speaker 3: There were only two Democrats who voted yes. Now we
- 20:24Speaker 3: still had the Republican votes to pass it. Well, what happened.
- 20:29Speaker 3: Thirty eight Republicans voted no. You cannot get to eighteen
- 20:35Speaker 3: in this narrow congress. If thirty eight Republicans vote no,
- 20:38Speaker 3: you end up with one hundred and seventy four, which
- 20:40Speaker 3: is where we were. So as we're sitting here tonight,
- 20:44Speaker 3: I don't know what the hell's going to happen, but
- 20:48Speaker 3: on the death Sailing. To be clear, this skinny proposal
- 20:51Speaker 3: was almost exactly what President Trump demanded. He put out
- 20:55Speaker 3: a statement urging every Republican vote for this now. He
- 20:58Speaker 3: was unequivocal, I'll vote for it now because it had
- 21:03Speaker 3: almost entirely what was asked for by Republicans, and it
- 21:07Speaker 3: had very few of the things asked for by Democrats.
- 21:10Speaker 3: And it didn't just fail.
- 21:11Speaker 2: It failed.
- 21:13Speaker 3: One hundred and seventy four is way way way below
- 21:16Speaker 3: two eighteen. And to be clear, it failed because thirty
- 21:18Speaker 3: eight Republicans voted no. So what's next. Let me move
- 21:26Speaker 3: to the second principle. I told you I got four
- 21:27Speaker 3: principles to think through this. Here's the second principle. Funding
- 21:33Speaker 3: should be about leverage. Listen, we're living in a time
- 21:38Speaker 3: right now. You spent a lot of time on Twitter.
- 21:40Speaker 3: I spent a lot of time on Twitter. I get
- 21:44Speaker 3: that sense. You're frustrated with Washington. Washington's the swamp. You
- 21:47Speaker 3: don't like government, just shut it down raw in my view, Now, listen,
- 21:54Speaker 3: there are some Republicans. There are swampy Republicans Mitch McConnell
- 21:57Speaker 3: who are terrified of a government shutdown, who on every
- 22:00Speaker 3: battle over government spending, they want to surrender on everything
- 22:03Speaker 3: because they think the government shutting down is the end
- 22:05Speaker 3: of the universe. That view is wrong. The government shutting
- 22:09Speaker 3: down is not the end of the universe. However, I
- 22:14Speaker 3: think you should use battles over government funding as leverage
- 22:18Speaker 3: to get something. So if you think back to twelve
- 22:22Speaker 3: years ago when I was a brand new baby senator
- 22:25Speaker 3: and I led a filibuster against Obamacare, and we had
- 22:28Speaker 3: a government shutdown, and I was painted by the media
- 22:31Speaker 3: as the point of the government shutdown. To be clear,
- 22:37Speaker 3: my position was not shut the government down, raar. My
- 22:41Speaker 3: position was we should fund the entirety of the federal government,
- 22:44Speaker 3: but don't fund Obamacare. That we should use funding as leverage,
- 22:48Speaker 3: and I had a very detailed and laid out plan
- 22:51Speaker 3: to get to victory. Now, we failed in twenty thirteen
- 22:54Speaker 3: with that objective, in significant part because Republican leadership Mitch
- 22:58Speaker 3: McConnell and John Bayner waged war against me. They joined
- 23:02Speaker 3: with the Democrats and said, nope, we want to fund
- 23:04Speaker 3: all of Obamacare.
- 23:05Speaker 2: To hell with you.
- 23:07Speaker 3: And when you're fighting the Democrats and leadership in your
- 23:11Speaker 3: own party, you lose. But I will say to everyone
- 23:16Speaker 3: tweeting shut it down, shut it down, shut it down.
- 23:20Speaker 3: I get you're on your phone. That feels good. Why
- 23:22Speaker 3: do I care shut it down? Well, let me tell
- 23:26Speaker 3: you when you have a shutdown. Number one, if you
- 23:27Speaker 3: have a bunch of soldiers stationed abroad who are not
- 23:31Speaker 3: getting paid, who are not able to feed their families.
- 23:34Speaker 2: That ain't good.
- 23:36Speaker 3: By the way, it is also important to recognize so
- 23:39Speaker 3: the last big shutdown we had was when Trump was president.
- 23:43Speaker 3: So when Trump's president, if you have a shutdown and
- 23:45Speaker 3: you want to navigate through it, And by the way,
- 23:48Speaker 3: Chuck Schumer forced the last shutdown when Trump was president.
- 23:51Speaker 3: His administration was able to mitigate the harms of the
- 23:54Speaker 3: shutdown because they wanted to. If we have a shutdown
- 23:57Speaker 3: twenty four hours from now, Joe Biden, the Democrat, will
- 24:00Speaker 3: do everything they can to make it as painful as possible.
- 24:04Speaker 3: So it means a crap tout of federal workers will
- 24:06Speaker 3: not get paid going into Christmas. That doesn't make him thrilled.
- 24:09Speaker 3: And by the way, it's not just federal workers that
- 24:11Speaker 3: we're not big fans of. It's not bureaucrats that are
- 24:15Speaker 3: regulating the hell out of business and destroying jobs. They're
- 24:18Speaker 3: among them, but it's also prosecutors. It is also border
- 24:24Speaker 3: patrol agents. It is also Marines, I mean is it's
- 24:28Speaker 3: coast guardsmen. It's a lot of people who are good
- 24:31Speaker 3: people doing great work who get their pay cut off.
- 24:34Speaker 3: But Biden will also implement the policies in ways. So
- 24:38Speaker 3: for example, what will they do. They'll shut down every
- 24:40Speaker 3: national park in America. So maybe you and your family
- 24:44Speaker 3: over Christmas break, we're planning to go see a national park.
- 24:48Speaker 3: Maybe you're planning to go see the Smithsonian. Now Christmas
- 24:50Speaker 3: is not a huge time for that, but shutting down
- 24:54Speaker 3: the museums, shutting down the national parks, it is one
- 24:57Speaker 3: hundred percent Biden will do that, and that is done
- 25:02Speaker 3: to inflict maximum pain. Let's say you're taking your family
- 25:07Speaker 3: on vacation and you want your passport processed. Well, you
- 25:12Speaker 3: know what, Biden's going to shut that down. You're not
- 25:14Speaker 3: going to get your passport processed.
- 25:17Speaker 1: Every consumer face, make it hurt, is what they're saying.
- 25:21Speaker 1: They want to make it hurt, and they want you
- 25:23Speaker 1: to blame Republicans, and they want you to say this
- 25:26Speaker 1: is what they did, this is their fault, and it's
- 25:29Speaker 1: a blame game.
- 25:30Speaker 3: It is a blame game, and they want to make
- 25:31Speaker 3: it painful and they want to blame Republicans. So I
- 25:34Speaker 3: will just say to everyone, and look, I'm reading Twitter,
- 25:36Speaker 3: I'm reading people that I like it, agree with the
- 25:38Speaker 3: or just like shut it down, shut it down, shut
- 25:40Speaker 3: it down.
- 25:42Speaker 2: That I get.
- 25:44Speaker 3: There's a lot about government that frustrates the heck out
- 25:46Speaker 3: of me. But let me just ask, Okay, what's.
- 25:49Speaker 2: The end game.
- 25:50Speaker 3: Do you really think if we have a government shutdown
- 25:54Speaker 3: for the next month and Trump arrives on January twentieth
- 25:59Speaker 3: with the government shut down for a month, that that
- 26:02Speaker 3: helps Trump? Do you really think that helps the incoming administration?
- 26:06Speaker 3: By the way, come January twentieth, it stays shut down,
- 26:09Speaker 3: you still got to get to two eighteen. There are
- 26:13Speaker 3: people around Trump will say, well, no, no, no, everyone will
- 26:15Speaker 3: blame the shutdown on Joe Biden. I promise you they
- 26:17Speaker 3: won't in significant part because when it's Republicans screaming we
- 26:24Speaker 3: want to shut down, it's actually not ridiculous of Democrats
- 26:29Speaker 3: to say, well, if the Republicans want to shut down,
- 26:31Speaker 3: then it's the Republican shutdown. I mean, that's not an
- 26:34Speaker 3: insane thing to say. The media will say it, the
- 26:35Speaker 3: Democrats will say it. And when you have Republicans screaming
- 26:41Speaker 3: I want to shut down, that becomes not a very
- 26:44Speaker 3: difficult narrative to tell. So if you're arguing, who cares
- 26:49Speaker 3: about the shutdown, let's shut it down, let me just
- 26:51Speaker 3: ask what are you trying to accomplish with that, what's
- 26:53Speaker 3: the leverage you're trying to get, and what's the endgame?
- 26:57Speaker 3: When does the shutdown end? Or do you think we
- 27:00Speaker 3: should never pay our active duty military again? And I
- 27:03Speaker 3: don't think there are many people And that's one of
- 27:06Speaker 3: the dangers of people just yelling when they don't actually
- 27:09Speaker 3: look at well, what does this mean?
- 27:11Speaker 2: And let me be clear, I have been.
- 27:13Speaker 3: Vigorous in saying we should use funding as leverage, but
- 27:18Speaker 3: leverage for an achievable, concrete, discrete outcome. I'm not hearing
- 27:23Speaker 3: anyone who's saying shut it down, shut it down.
- 27:25Speaker 2: Now.
- 27:25Speaker 3: Some people are saying, all right, here's what we should
- 27:28Speaker 3: get leverage for. We should get leverage for Trump's demand
- 27:32Speaker 3: that we suspend the debt ceiling. And here's the third principle.
- 27:36Speaker 3: I want to say.
- 27:38Speaker 2: There are some.
- 27:38Speaker 3: People arguing for eliminating the debt ceiling permanently altogether, just
- 27:42Speaker 3: getting rid of the death ceiling. Never again having to
- 27:45Speaker 3: worry about it. And by the way, one of the
- 27:46Speaker 3: plans that's discussed is, well, the Democrats have always wanted
- 27:49Speaker 3: to eliminate the death ceiling, so let's just do that,
- 27:52Speaker 3: and that's how we get out of this. I pray
- 27:55Speaker 3: that is not the end game here. Eliminating the debt
- 27:58Speaker 3: ceiling would be the single world first step we could
- 28:01Speaker 3: possibly take if you care about spending or deficits or debt.
- 28:07Speaker 2: Now, why is that?
- 28:08Speaker 3: Okay, let's do a little history. Historically, the debt ceiling
- 28:13Speaker 3: has been the single greatest leverage Republicans have had to
- 28:18Speaker 3: force spending restraint. Now, this has only happened and it's
- 28:23Speaker 3: only worked against the opposing party. So one of the
- 28:26Speaker 3: challenges with the debt ceiling is when your own party
- 28:29Speaker 3: is in power. Trump wants the dead ceiling raised. Every
- 28:31Speaker 3: president wants the dead ceiling raised. Republicans, as a general matter,
- 28:37Speaker 3: are not willing to exert massive leverage on their own
- 28:40Speaker 3: parties president and force spending restraints. So when Trump was
- 28:44Speaker 3: president the first time, the debt ceiling was not leverage
- 28:47Speaker 3: against Trump because Republicans didn't want to do that.
- 28:50Speaker 2: I understand that.
- 28:52Speaker 3: But when Democrats are in the White House Republicans, the
- 28:56Speaker 3: debt ceiling is the single most effective lever point that
- 28:59Speaker 3: has been used against Democrats to force spending restraints. And
- 29:03Speaker 3: I want to point to a couple of examples. Number one,
- 29:06Speaker 3: Graham Rudman Hollings. Graham Rudman Hollings, passed decades ago, remains
- 29:12Speaker 3: the single most effective spending restraint that has ever been
- 29:15Speaker 3: passed into law. Phil Graham, former Senator from Texas, was
- 29:18Speaker 3: the lead author. How did that get passed? It got
- 29:21Speaker 3: passed because of the debt ceiling. Got passed because Republicans
- 29:25Speaker 3: forced it and said, we won't raise the debt ceiling
- 29:27Speaker 3: unless you pass meaningful structural reform to.
- 29:31Speaker 2: Reign in spending. And Graham Hollings.
- 29:36Speaker 3: Was in effect for many years and had a very
- 29:39Speaker 3: positive effect reigning in the growth of spending. I'll point
- 29:42Speaker 3: to a second example twenty ten, the Budget Control Act.
- 29:46Speaker 3: Twenty ten, Barack Obama was president and Republicans used the
- 29:50Speaker 3: debt ceiling to force Barack Obama to agree to something
- 29:55Speaker 3: called the Budget Control Act. The Budget Control Act again
- 29:59Speaker 3: significant constrain the growth of federal spending. It was only
- 30:04Speaker 3: through the debt ceiling we got that. Now the argument.
- 30:10Speaker 3: And by the way, today we the Republican senators, we
- 30:13Speaker 3: all had lunch.
- 30:14Speaker 2: JD. Vance came to express his views. To the lunch.
- 30:20Speaker 3: There were a number of Republicans saying, well, we should
- 30:22Speaker 3: just get rid of the debt ceiling now. And I'll
- 30:25Speaker 3: tell you I expressed my views. If we get rid
- 30:27Speaker 3: of the debt ceiling, it would be utterly disastrous. If
- 30:30Speaker 3: you care remotely about government spending, eliminate the debt ceiling
- 30:34Speaker 3: would be a massive mistake.
- 30:36Speaker 2: And I just put it up.
- 30:36Speaker 3: If we get rid of the dead ceiling, there will
- 30:39Speaker 3: come another Democrat president. I get the urge to live
- 30:43Speaker 3: in the moment of we're in charge.
- 30:44Speaker 2: Wuha.
- 30:45Speaker 3: But unfortunately, there will come another time when the American
- 30:49Speaker 3: people elect a Democrat. And for anyone who has an
- 30:53Speaker 3: attention span beyond twelve seconds, you recognize throughout history that
- 30:57Speaker 3: politics has been a pendulum and it goes from one
- 31:00Speaker 3: to the other. So we will get another Democrat president.
- 31:02Speaker 3: And I told my colleagues today at lunch, I said,
- 31:04Speaker 3: all right, you get rid of the death ceiling, get
- 31:07Speaker 3: ready for President Elizabeth Warren. And if you don't like
- 31:11Speaker 3: a thirty six trillion dollar debt, get ready for a
- 31:13Speaker 3: fifty trillion dollar debt because the Democrats Elizabeth Warren wants
- 31:19Speaker 3: to eliminate the dead ceiling, AOC wants to eliminate the
- 31:22Speaker 3: death ceiling. Chuck Schumer wants to eliminate the dead ceiling
- 31:25Speaker 3: because they want to spend us into oblivion.
- 31:27Speaker 2: So I will say one potential way out of.
- 31:30Speaker 3: This is to cut an absolute deal with the Democrats
- 31:35Speaker 3: that gets rid of the debt ceiling forever. We will
- 31:38Speaker 3: have given away what history has proven. And by the way,
- 31:40Speaker 3: I'll go back. I'll go back to about a decade.
- 31:44Speaker 3: I don't have the most recent stats, but about a
- 31:45Speaker 3: decade ago, it was the case that of the previous
- 31:49Speaker 3: fifty one times Congress had raised the debt ceiling, twenty
- 31:53Speaker 3: eight of those times that had attached meaningful conditions to
- 31:56Speaker 3: the debt ceiling. So it's leverage. Remember my principal number two,
- 31:59Speaker 3: as you spending for leverage, this is related on principle
- 32:03Speaker 3: number three. The debt ceiling is about getting leverage for concessions.
- 32:07Speaker 3: Now here's the problem I mentioned to you. There are
- 32:10Speaker 3: a bunch of Republicans in the House who say they'll
- 32:12Speaker 3: never vote for continued resolution. There are also a bunch
- 32:16Speaker 3: of Republicans in the House who say they will never
- 32:18Speaker 3: ever ever vote to raise the debt ceiling.
- 32:20Speaker 2: I got to tell you, I don't think that makes
- 32:22Speaker 2: any sense.
- 32:23Speaker 3: I've never said it, and I consider myself very much
- 32:26Speaker 3: a fiscal conservative. But forty percent of every dollar the
- 32:30Speaker 3: federal government spends is borrowed unless you're prepared to slash
- 32:33Speaker 3: the federal government budget by forty percent tomorrow. And by
- 32:36Speaker 3: the way, there is literally no serious person on planet
- 32:39Speaker 3: Earth who is prepared to do that and is able
- 32:41Speaker 3: to do that. Even if you would with a magic
- 32:43Speaker 3: wand do that, there's no way to make that happen.
- 32:46Speaker 3: Unless you're prepared to do that, the debt ceiling will
- 32:49Speaker 3: have to be raised. My position has always been I'm
- 32:53Speaker 3: willing to vote to raise the debt ceiling if we
- 32:56Speaker 3: are getting concessions that are raining in the out of
- 32:59Speaker 3: control spending that's bankrupting our country. However, in the House
- 33:04Speaker 3: there are a bunch of Republicans who simply say, I
- 33:06Speaker 3: will never ever ever vote to raise the debt ceiling
- 33:08Speaker 3: no matter what, it doesn't matter what we get. My
- 33:11Speaker 3: answer is no, that is a real problem. Let me
- 33:17Speaker 3: make one final principle, Mike Johnson, who's the Speaker of
- 33:21Speaker 3: the House. There are a bunch of voices on TV,
- 33:24Speaker 3: a bunch of voices on talk radio, a bunch of
- 33:26Speaker 3: voices on Twitter saying get rid of Mike Johnson, throw
- 33:28Speaker 3: them overboard. I'm going to tell you something that I
- 33:31Speaker 3: believe is an absolute fact. Mike Johnson is the single
- 33:37Speaker 3: most conservative Speaker of the House that will ever be
- 33:40Speaker 3: Speaker of the House in our lifetime. He is undoubtedly
- 33:44Speaker 3: the most conservative Speaker of the House we have ever
- 33:47Speaker 3: had in our lifetime. It's not even close, it's not
- 33:49Speaker 3: even arguable. And I'm here to tell you listen, Mike
- 33:54Speaker 3: Johnson may lose his job over this. He has a
- 33:56Speaker 3: very perilous It's a tiny majority in the House. You've
- 34:00Speaker 3: got a bunch of House members saying I'm going to
- 34:01Speaker 3: vote against him. I will tell you this, If Mike
- 34:05Speaker 3: Johnson has toppled a Speaker of the House, and he
- 34:07Speaker 3: might be Kevin McCarthy was, Mike Johnson is orders of
- 34:11Speaker 3: magnitude more conservative than Kevin McCarthy. It's not even close.
- 34:16Speaker 3: If Mike Johnson is toppled as Speaker of the House,
- 34:20Speaker 3: we will end up with a Speaker of the House
- 34:22Speaker 3: who is much much more liberal than Mike Johnson. I
- 34:28Speaker 3: think that is indisputable. I know Mike Well, he's a
- 34:32Speaker 3: good man. He's a decent man, he's a strong Christian,
- 34:35Speaker 3: he is a man of humility. And everyone on Twitter
- 34:38Speaker 3: is saying, but he gave the Democrats concessions. I want
- 34:43Speaker 3: to go back to the first principle. I said, count
- 34:47Speaker 3: to two eighteen. If Mike Johnson could draft a bill
- 34:53Speaker 3: that makes it out of the House with two hundred
- 34:55Speaker 3: and eighteen Republicans, he would I don't believe that is
- 34:59Speaker 3: p possible. There's certainly nothing to indicate it as possible
- 35:03Speaker 3: right now. If you cannot get to two eighteen with
- 35:07Speaker 3: Republicans because a bunch of Republicans say I will not
- 35:10Speaker 3: vote for anything you propose, no matter what, then Mike
- 35:16Speaker 3: Johnson is forced to get Democrat votes. To get Democrat votes,
- 35:20Speaker 3: he must give Democrats things they want. And so I
- 35:25Speaker 3: don't know what will happen. I think there's a reasonable
- 35:28Speaker 3: chance somehow out of this we get some very short
- 35:33Speaker 3: term cr a week or two or three, and then
- 35:38Speaker 3: in mid January we're back in the middle of this
- 35:40Speaker 3: mess again. That's possible. I'll tell you, in the state,
- 35:42Speaker 3: we're all sitting there. We have no idea what's going
- 35:44Speaker 3: to happen. I got to tell you I feel for
- 35:47Speaker 3: Mike Johnson. I think he is trying with all his might,
- 35:51Speaker 3: and I would just encourage you to focus on listen.
- 35:55Speaker 3: I think we need people to be serious about changing
- 36:00Speaker 3: the direction of the battleship of government, and to do so,
- 36:07Speaker 3: you actually need a strategy that can get the votes
- 36:11Speaker 3: to prevail. If you can't get the votes, it's easy
- 36:16Speaker 3: to tweet about it. I mean that's from the cheap seats.
- 36:20Speaker 3: Thirty eight Republicans voted No. One hundred and seventy four
- 36:25Speaker 3: is not to eighteen, and so I don't know what
- 36:29Speaker 3: the result is here. I think it is chaotic. We
- 36:34Speaker 3: will get through this one way or another. But the
- 36:38Speaker 3: fundamental structural dynamics, and it's one of the things look
- 36:41Speaker 3: going forward into the next year. I'm really optimistic about
- 36:43Speaker 3: the Trump presidency. I'm really optimistic about a Republican Senate
- 36:47Speaker 3: in the House. But I'll tell you the Senate's going
- 36:50Speaker 3: to be a lot easier. We've got fifty three Republicans
- 36:52Speaker 3: coming in next year. By the way, we still have
- 36:54Speaker 3: a Democrat Senate today, so I haven't even this whole
- 36:57Speaker 3: discussion has ignored the fact that you've got to get
- 36:59Speaker 3: Chuck Schumer and the Democrat to agree with whatever you do,
- 37:01Speaker 3: which is even harder. But next year we'll have fifty
- 37:05Speaker 3: three Republicans in the Senate. Fifty three is a big
- 37:07Speaker 3: enough majority that we can lose three votes and still
- 37:10Speaker 3: get things done. So I think the Senate will be
- 37:11Speaker 3: able to pass pretty good legislation, not fantastic, not wonderful,
- 37:17Speaker 3: but surprisingly good. The House worries me enormously next year
- 37:23Speaker 3: because the majority is so excruciatingly small that if you
- 37:28Speaker 3: lose a handful of votes, you cannot get to too eighteen.
- 37:33Speaker 3: And so I think Mike Johnson is trying to work
- 37:37Speaker 3: miracles right now. But the single hardest challenge of the
- 37:42Speaker 3: next two years in terms of passing good legislation is
- 37:44Speaker 3: going to be getting to two eighteen in the House.
- 37:47Speaker 2: And I don't know what the answer is to that.
- 37:50Speaker 1: I want to take a moment and talk to you
- 37:51Speaker 1: about IFCJ the International Fellowship of Christians and Jews, wants
- 37:56Speaker 1: to wish you a blessed beginning of the holiday season
- 37:59Speaker 1: as you gather with your families, grateful for the blessings
- 38:02Speaker 1: that God has given us all. But let's also remember
- 38:07Speaker 1: those who are facing unbelievable hardship in need of food, fellowship,
- 38:12Speaker 1: and hope. That includes the people of Israel, who are
- 38:15Speaker 1: threatened daily by attacks from enemies on all sides. And
- 38:19Speaker 1: during these hard times, Israelis are thankful for the fellowship,
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- 38:27Speaker 1: the rest of the world seems to have turned its
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- 38:33Speaker 1: help provide a food box to an elderly Jew or
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