Latest / The Ben Ferguson Podcast / Iran Deal Sealed, Oil Prices Reeled

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Iran Deal Sealed, Oil Prices Reeled · The Ben Ferguson Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: M M. Mister President Clilewitz text to the MU he released.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: I think pretty soon, I would say, I mean I
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: wanted to be released because it's a very powerful document.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: It's not like the Obama document, which was just a
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: terrible document. This is a very powerful document, and I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: wanted to be released. So probably pretty soon, I would say,
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: after some time after Friday.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: You're listening to the forty seven Morning Update with Ben Ferguson.
• 0:28
  Speaker 3: Good Tuesday morning. Nice to have you with us on
• 0:30
  Speaker 3: the forty seven Morning Update, and we've got two big
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: stories for you. First up, jd Vance comes out explaining
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: why the Trump Iran deal is a major victory for
• 0:40
  Speaker 3: all Americans plus the stock market. Well, they reacted in
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: a big way, meaning more money in your pocket and
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: what it could actually mean for prices at the pump.
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• 2:37
  Speaker 4: Today.
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: It's forty seven Morning Update and it starts right now.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: Story number one, Well.
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  Speaker 3: It is officially a war of words. The Democratic Party
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  Speaker 3: coming all out saying that the deal that Donald Trump
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: has agreed to with Iran will is a terrible deal.
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  Speaker 3: It is a horrible deal, and you should be disappointed
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  Speaker 3: in Donald Trump. Well, today, Vice President JD. Vance he
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: went on offense defending the President's historic agreement with Iran,
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  Speaker 3: and he laid out exactly why the administration believes this
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  Speaker 3: deal is a massive win for every American as well
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  Speaker 3: as for stability not only in the Middle East, but
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  Speaker 3: also for the global economy. Now, Vance made it clear
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  Speaker 3: from the beginning, this is not a giveaway to Iran
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  Speaker 3: that has been the talking points of Democrats. He went
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  Speaker 3: on Sean Handy's show on Fox News Channel and he
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  Speaker 3: was asked about the Barack Obama deal in Barack Obama
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  Speaker 3: criticizing this new deal that Donald Trump has come up
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  Speaker 3: with and I want you to hear what Vance said
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: in response.
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  Speaker 5: I'ma took a shot and said, I don't think this
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  Speaker 5: deal is any better than the deal we had before
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  Speaker 5: the jcpoway was dramatically different than what you were describing
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  Speaker 5: here tonight.
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  Speaker 6: And I'd ask the president, the former president, I'd say, Obama,
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  Speaker 6: why in the world, if it's the same thing, why
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  Speaker 6: is it that the golf Arabs hated deal and they
• 4:00
  Speaker 6: love our deal. They are the ones who are in
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  Speaker 6: the region. They know what it means to enrich the
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  Speaker 6: worst terrorist regime in the world, and they also know
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  Speaker 6: what it means to turn over a new leaf and
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  Speaker 6: to go to a different future. So I think President
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  Speaker 6: Obama he should acknowledge that the people who are closest
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  Speaker 6: to this, they love the Trump deal, they hate the
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  Speaker 6: Obama deal, and that's maybe the biggest endorsement of this plan.
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  Speaker 4: Now.
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  Speaker 3: In the interviews that JD. Vance did clearly trying to
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  Speaker 3: push back on the lies of the left in the media.
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  Speaker 3: One of the things that Vance made very clear is
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  Speaker 3: he pushed back aggressively against the claims that the United
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  Speaker 3: States is handing Iran literally billions of dollars just for
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  Speaker 3: signing the agreement.
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  Speaker 4: JD.
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  Speaker 3: Vance said that is not what is happening here at all.
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  Speaker 3: And here's more of why. He says, the facts actually
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  Speaker 3: matter to.
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  Speaker 5: The people like me that have been very skeptical of
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  Speaker 5: the regime. Sure for all these years, number one state
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  Speaker 5: sponsor for terror, death to Israel, death oral America. I'm
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  Speaker 5: skeptical if.
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  Speaker 4: This is all true.
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  Speaker 5: Reagan talked about this in eighty five. He said there
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  Speaker 5: might be an opportunity for peace in that region, and
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  Speaker 5: it might be all of these countries finally getting along,
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  Speaker 5: and you even expressed hope that that might be a
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  Speaker 5: result of this.
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  Speaker 6: Well, again, I'll tell you the Gulf coast countries under
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  Speaker 6: the President's leadership, they actually feel that that's possible. They
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  Speaker 6: don't believe anything either, They're not certain. They're not going
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  Speaker 6: to predict what the Ranians are going to do five
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  Speaker 6: years from now, but they see real opportunity. So we're
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  Speaker 6: gonna walk down this pathway. We're going to see how
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  Speaker 6: serious the Iranians are and Shawn us, what if they
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  Speaker 6: don't meet these obligations, what if they don't do what
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  Speaker 6: they promise they're going to do. Number One, they don't
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  Speaker 6: get any benefits of the bargain, and as the President
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  Speaker 6: would say, we have all the cards. Their economy will
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  Speaker 6: still be in very tough shape if they don't get
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  Speaker 6: the relief that they need to get in order to
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  Speaker 6: make progress. We're still going to have incredible military might,
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  Speaker 6: We're still going to have diplomatic leverage over them. We
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  Speaker 6: have the cards, and if they don't out of the commitment,
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  Speaker 6: we'll figure out what to do when we get there.
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  Speaker 3: Now, that was one of the biggest points Advance wanted
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  Speaker 3: Americans to understand and his words, and as the White
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  Speaker 3: House put it out so clearly later in the day,
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  Speaker 3: Iran does not get rewards up front. Iran must earn
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  Speaker 3: any economic relief by actually changing their behavior. Now, according
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  Speaker 3: to Vance, the sanction relief and any broader economic opening
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  Speaker 3: they're tied directly to Iran making long term commitments to
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  Speaker 3: abandon any path to a nuclear weapon and also allowing
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  Speaker 3: international verification to confirm their compliance at all times.
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  Speaker 5: We are not giving them an American dollar. Number one true,
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  Speaker 5: And number two, did the US ever sign off on
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  Speaker 5: the qataris paying that money?
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  Speaker 4: No, we've not.
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  Speaker 6: The agreement says they are not getting a single dime
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  Speaker 6: of American money.
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  Speaker 4: That's just not what this is.
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  Speaker 6: What the agreement does say, Sean is again, if the
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  Speaker 6: Iranians behave, and if there are sanctions relief, and if
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  Speaker 6: the Iranians are integrated into the world economy, we would
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  Speaker 6: invite other countries, not US, but other countries to invest
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  Speaker 6: in their country. That's fine, but only if they comply
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  Speaker 6: with the terms of the agreement.
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  Speaker 4: Really, we have an option here, right.
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  Speaker 6: The President of the United States has given us optionality,
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  Speaker 6: which is great for the American people.
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  Speaker 4: Step back for a second.
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  Speaker 6: Their conventional military is destroyed, their nuclear weapons program is destroyed.
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  Speaker 6: The strait of horror moves is now open. Now we
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  Speaker 6: have two pathways that are good to tell free. It
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  Speaker 6: is open, toll free, and that's very explicit in the agreement.
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  Speaker 6: But now we have two pathways we can go down.
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  Speaker 6: Pathway number one is the Iranian economy continues to be strangled.
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  Speaker 4: We don't want that, that's not our desire.
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  Speaker 6: But in order for them to get pathway too, which
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  Speaker 6: is reintegration into the world economy, they have to behave
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  Speaker 6: like a normal country. It's a very simple principle actually,
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  Speaker 6: And what's different about this than previous iterations of the
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  Speaker 6: Iranian government previous negotiations. Is one, the President's negotiating from
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  Speaker 6: a position of strength.
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  Speaker 4: But number two, we're actually talking directly to them.
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  Speaker 6: Tell you Sean of five years down the road, they're
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  Speaker 6: going to honor that commitment.
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  Speaker 4: Because I can't.
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  Speaker 6: Predict the future, what I can tell you is if.
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  Speaker 4: They don't honor their commitments, they don't get a dime.
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  Speaker 6: From anybody the United States ever, but a dime from
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  Speaker 6: anybody else either.
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  Speaker 3: Vance went on to explain that the agreement ensures that
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  Speaker 3: Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, while simultaneously, as
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  Speaker 3: he mentioned, opening the straight ofform Moves and the second
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  Speaker 3: point is incredibly important. The Straight of hor Moves is
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  Speaker 3: one of the most critical shipping lanes on Earth. We've
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  Speaker 3: talked about that on this show multiple times, and a
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  Speaker 3: huge percentage of the world's all supply, more than twenty percent,
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  Speaker 3: moves through that narrow passage. Now, when Iran threatened the
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  Speaker 3: waterway and the conflict, that escalated the energy markets, as
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  Speaker 3: you know, panicked. Oil prices climbed because traders fear the
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  Speaker 3: disruption of the global supply chain. Well, now, with the
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  Speaker 3: agreement expected to reopen the Straight of horm moves without
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  Speaker 3: tolls or interference. Vance as Americans now can have security
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  Speaker 3: and that is really important. Freedom of navigation for ships
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  Speaker 3: around the world and the stability for the global energy
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  Speaker 3: markets that helps Americans as well. Now. JD. Vance also
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  Speaker 3: made it clear it was time to blast the media
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  Speaker 3: for literally selling the IRGC that's the Islamic Revolutionary Guards
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  Speaker 3: talking points. Again, the media is selling this, Democrats selling
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  Speaker 3: this for twenty four hours and he already said this.
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  Speaker 3: The markets are reacting. They know what the deal says
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  Speaker 3: and they're not buying into what the media is selling you,
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  Speaker 3: which is the IRGC's talking points.
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  Speaker 4: And here's the thing. Yes, you're right.
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  Speaker 6: Sometimes, when you know information about this deal will leak out,
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  Speaker 6: you'll have somebody on a propaganda channel in that country,
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  Speaker 6: in Iran who will say something that isn't true.
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  Speaker 4: I think it's it's sort of expected.
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  Speaker 6: It frustrates me too, but it's expected that some Yahoo
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  Speaker 6: is going to say something about the deal that is untrue.
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  Speaker 6: What really bothers me and frustrates me and is unexpected
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  Speaker 6: when the American media literally picks up talking points in
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  Speaker 6: propaganda from the RGC that has no support in the
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  Speaker 6: text of the agreement that we've actually negotiated, and no
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  Speaker 6: basis in reality, this is good for the American people.
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  Speaker 6: The Iranians don't get a dime unless they behave and
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  Speaker 6: change their behavior, and this means that Iran will never
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  Speaker 6: have a nuclear weapons.
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  Speaker 5: We do this get a dime. Do they ever get
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  Speaker 5: an American dime a taxpayer dollar?
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  Speaker 6: No? So number one, First of all, they never get
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  Speaker 6: a dime of American tax payer money ever, full stop,
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  Speaker 6: not even close.
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  Speaker 4: What we have said is there's a lot.
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  Speaker 6: Of economic benefit in the United States relieving a lot
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  Speaker 6: of sanctions and welcoming them back.
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  Speaker 4: Into the world economy. There's a lot of benefit.
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  Speaker 6: They're not American money, but there's a lot of economic
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  Speaker 6: prosperity that can flow from that. What the President said
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  Speaker 6: to them is, we want you to be a successful country.
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  Speaker 6: But for you to be a successful country, you've got
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  Speaker 6: to give up on this threat. You've got to give
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  Speaker 6: up on this desire to have a nuclear weapon. And
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  Speaker 6: if you do that, the United States is willing to
• 11:01
  Speaker 6: have a much better relationship.
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  Speaker 3: Now you listen to what jd. Van says there, and
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  Speaker 3: he's assuring the American people that pallets of cash like
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  Speaker 3: went out under the Obama administration. Well, that's not going
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: to happen. And what the Trump administration is saying is
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: that peace through strength has clearly worked. It's produced a
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  Speaker 3: framework that achieves several major objectives. Number one being that
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: Iran remains blocked from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Number two,
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  Speaker 3: the Strait of hor Moves is reopened, protecting global commerce
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: and lowering pressure on energy prices. Number three, America is
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  Speaker 3: not writing a blank check to Tehran. Any economic benefits
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: are contingent on Iranian compliance. And number four, the agreement
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: creates pathway to a more stable Middle East without a
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: prolonged military conflict. Now, there are still technical negotiations ahead,
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: and the full text the agreement has not yet been
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: seen by the public. But what Van said is the
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: administration tends to release the text so the American people
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: can read it for themselves. A lot of this is
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: because of how much the media has been pushing Iranian propaganda,
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: and yet again President Trump showing the transparency is what
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: his administration is all about for the American people. Next story,
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  Speaker 3: number two, what a difference a diplomatic breakthrough can make.
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: And today the financial markets are sending a loud and
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: clear message. After President Trump announced the deal with Iran
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the sort of
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  Speaker 3: hormus and restoring stability to one of the most important
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: energy corridors in the world, investors took politics out of it,
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: and they reacted immediately. Wall Street surged on the news,
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: the Nasdaq exploded higher by more than three percent, and
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: the SMP climbed one point seven percent, and the Dow
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: Jones Industrial averaged jumped nearly four hundred and seventy points
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  Speaker 3: as investors celebrate the prospect of lower energy costs and
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: reduce geopolitical risk as well as a more stable global economy.
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: And perhaps the biggest story for everyday Americans happens in
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: the oil markets. Oil prices collapsed. Now why does that matter?
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: Because oil is the lifeblood of the global economy. When
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: aill prices rise, everything gets more expensive. The cost to
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: fill up your car, the price of groceries, shopping costs,
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: airline tickets. And President Trump knows that. And for months
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: the markets had been pricing in fear. What would happen
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: if the conflict in the Middle East continued and if
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: the stratiform moves remained disrupted or closed roughly one fifth.
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: As you know, the world's oil supply moves through that
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: narrow waterway, and the fear of shortages drove the price
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: is much higher. But when President Trump announced the deal
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: had been reached to reopen the straight and restore inner flows,
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: the traders immediately while they reprice the risk. As you know,
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: crude oil has now fallen nearly five percent. US crew
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: to oil has actually dropped more than five percent overall.
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: It's fallen to the lowest levels in months. At one point,
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: West Texas intermediate crude actually drop below eighty dollars a
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: barrel for the first time since March as well, and
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: that's just on a number on a trading screen. That's
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: a potential tax cut literally for American families. Lower oil
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: prices can eventually translate into lower prices at the gas pump.
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: Analysts say it could take one to two weeks before
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: consumers starts seeing meaningful relief as cheaper crud works its
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: way through the supply chain. But if you think about
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: the ripple effect, here's what matters the most. A family
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: filling up two vehicles every week spends less on gas.
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: A trucking company spends less moving goods across America. Airlines
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: spend a lot less on fuel, and businesses then have
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: lower transportation costs. And when people spend less, well, they
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: have less pressure to raise prices on consumers. And that's
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: why investors were so enthusiastic about everything that's happened the
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: last twenty four hours. This wasn't just about ending a
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: conflict thousands of miles away. This was about reducing one
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: of the biggest inflation threats facing the world economy. Even
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: European markets reacted with enthusiasm, with major indexes hitting record
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: highs as the proposed prospect of the US are Indian
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: agreement not only lowered energy costs but boosted confidence all
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: over the world. Now, democrats are still trying to score
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: political points, but let's be clear, what we're witnessing right
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: now is the economy looking at what the world's going
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: to look like when the deal is done. Now, the markets,
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: clearly they're beyond excited about this, and the judgment is simple.
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: The possibility of peace is good for prosperity. Lower risk
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: means lower oil prices. Lower oil prices mean lower inflation pressure,
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: and lower infration pressure is exactly what American consumers have
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: been demanding after years of battling higher prices. It's really
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: why Donald Trump was elected. Well, the stock market they're
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: celebrating today is liberals are crying the old market is falling,
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: and that means good things for everyone. So regardless of
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: what the Democrats say, what we're witnessing right now is
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: this the markets are betting that this deal could mean
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: cheaper energy, stronger consumer confidence, and a major economic win
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: for every American. In fact, that's exactly what the world
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: markets are saying as well. So yes, Democrats are going
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: to try to score points and tell you the deal
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: is bad, but Wall Street and the economic markets they're
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: reading the fine print, and what they're celebrating is ad
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: they get to Americans and the rest of the world
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: moving in the right direction.
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: Thank you for listening to the forty seven Morning Update
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: with Ben Ferguson. Please make sure you hit subscribe wherever
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  Speaker 2: you're listening to this podcast right now and for more
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  Speaker 2: and we will see you back here tomorrow.