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Boom on Wall Street, Bust in Oil: Iran Deal Flips the Script · The Ben Ferguson Podcast

0:00
Speaker 1: What a difference a diplomatic breakthrough can make. And today
0:04
Speaker 1: the financial markets are sending a loud and clear message.
0:07
Speaker 1: After President Trump announced a deal with Iran aimed at
0:11
Speaker 1: ending the conflict and reopening the sort of hor moves
0:14
Speaker 1: and restoring stability to one of the most important energy
0:17
Speaker 1: corridors in the world, investors took politics out of it,
0:21
Speaker 1: and they reacted immediately. Wall Street surged on the news,
0:26
Speaker 1: the Nasdaq exploded higher by more than three percent, and
0:30
Speaker 1: the SMP climbed one point seven percent, and the Dow
0:34
Speaker 1: Jones Industrial averaged jumped nearly four hundred and seventy points
0:38
Speaker 1: as investors celebrated the prospect of lower energy costs and
0:42
Speaker 1: reduce geopolitical risk as well as a more stable global economy.
0:48
Speaker 1: And perhaps the biggest story for everyday Americans happens in
0:52
Speaker 1: the oil markets. Oil prices collapsed. Now why does that matter?
0:57
Speaker 1: Because oil is the lifeblood of the global economy. When
1:01
Speaker 1: all prices rise, everything gets more expensive. The cost to
1:06
Speaker 1: fill up your car, the price of groceries, shopping costs,
1:10
Speaker 1: airline tickets. And President Trump knows that. And for months
1:14
Speaker 1: the markets had been pricing in fear. What would happen
1:18
Speaker 1: if the conflict in the Middle East continued and if
1:21
Speaker 1: the stratiform moves remained disrupted or closed, roughly one fifth,
1:25
Speaker 1: as you know, the world's oil supply moves through that
1:28
Speaker 1: narrow waterway, and the fear of shortages drove the price
1:31
Speaker 1: is much higher. But when President Trump announced the deal
1:35
Speaker 1: had been reached to reopen the straight and restore energy flows,
1:39
Speaker 1: the traders immediately while they repriced the risk. As you know,
1:43
Speaker 1: crude oil has now fallen nearly five percent. US crew
1:47
Speaker 1: to oil has actually dropped more than five percent overall.
1:51
Speaker 1: It's fallen to the lowest levels in months. At one point,
1:55
Speaker 1: West Texas intermediate crude actually drop below eighty dollars a
2:00
Speaker 1: barrel for the first time since March as well, and
2:03
Speaker 1: that's just on a number on a trading screen. That's
2:06
Speaker 1: a potential tax cut literally for American families. Lower oil
2:11
Speaker 1: prices can eventually translate into lower prices at the gas pump.
2:16
Speaker 1: Analysts say it could take one to two weeks before
2:19
Speaker 1: consumers starts seeing meaningful relief as cheap recruit works its
2:23
Speaker 1: way through the supply chain. But if you think about
2:26
Speaker 1: the ripple effect, here's what matters.
2:28
Speaker 2: The most.
2:29
Speaker 1: A family filling up two vehicles every week spends less
2:33
Speaker 1: on gas. A trucking company spends less moving goods across America.
2:38
Speaker 1: Airlines spend a lot less on fuel, and businesses then
2:42
Speaker 1: have lower transportation costs. And when people spend less, well,
2:47
Speaker 1: they have less pressure to raise prices on consumers. And
2:51
Speaker 1: that's why investors were so enthusiastic about everything that's happened
2:55
Speaker 1: the last twenty four hours. This wasn't just about ending
2:58
Speaker 1: a conflict thousands of miles away. This was about reducing
3:02
Speaker 1: one of the biggest inflation threats facing the world economy.
3:06
Speaker 1: Even European markets reacted with enthusiasm, with major indexes hitting
3:11
Speaker 1: record highs as the proposed prospect of the US are
3:14
Speaker 1: Indian agreement not only lowered energy costs but boosted confidence
3:19
Speaker 1: all over the world. Now, Democrats are still trying to
3:22
Speaker 1: score political points, but let's be clear, what we're witnessing
3:26
Speaker 1: right now is the economy looking at what the world's
3:29
Speaker 1: going to look like when the deal is done. Now,
3:32
Speaker 1: the markets, clearly they're beyond excited about this, and the
3:36
Speaker 1: judgment is simple. The possibility of peace is good for prosperity,
3:41
Speaker 1: lower risk means lower oil prices. Lower oil prices mean
3:45
Speaker 1: lower inflation pressure, and lower infraation pressure. Is exactly what
3:50
Speaker 1: American consumers have been demanding after years of battling higher prices.
3:55
Speaker 1: It's really why Donald Trump was elected. Well, the stock
3:58
Speaker 1: market they're so celebrating today is liberals are crying the
4:03
Speaker 1: old market is falling, and that means good things for everyone.
4:07
Speaker 1: So regardless of what the Democrats say, what we're witnessing
4:11
Speaker 1: right now is this the markets are betting that this
4:15
Speaker 1: deal could mean cheaper energy, stronger consumer confidence, and a
4:19
Speaker 1: major economic win for every American. In fact, that's exactly
4:24
Speaker 1: what the world markets are saying as well. So yes,
4:28
Speaker 1: Democrats are going to try to score points and tell
4:30
Speaker 1: you the deal is bad, but Wall Street and the
4:33
Speaker 1: economic markets they're reading the fine print, and what they're
4:36
Speaker 1: celebrating is a deal that gets Americans and the rest
4:40
Speaker 1: of the world moving in the right direction. All right,
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Speaker 1: Patriot and make that switch today. Well, it is officially
6:40
Speaker 1: a war of words, the Democratic Party coming all out
6:44
Speaker 1: saying that the deal that Donald Trump has agreed to
6:46
Speaker 1: with Iran will is a terrible deal. It is a
6:50
Speaker 1: horrible deal and you should be disappointed in Donald Trump. Well,
6:54
Speaker 1: today Vice President JD. Vance he went on offense defending
6:58
Speaker 1: the President's historic agreement with the Ran, and he laid
7:01
Speaker 1: out exactly why the administration believes this deal is a
7:05
Speaker 1: massive win for every American as well as for stability
7:09
Speaker 1: not only in the Middle East, but also for the
7:11
Speaker 1: global economy. Now, Vance made it clear from the beginning,
7:15
Speaker 1: this is not a giveaway to Iran that has been
7:18
Speaker 1: the talking points of Democrats. He went on Sean Handy's
7:22
Speaker 1: show on Fox News Channel and he was asked about
7:25
Speaker 1: the Barack Obama deal in Barack Obama criticizing this new
7:30
Speaker 1: deal that Donald Trump has come up with, and I
7:32
Speaker 1: want you to hear what Van Sedden response.
7:35
Speaker 3: Ama took a shot and said, I don't think this
7:37
Speaker 3: deal is any better than the.
7:38
Speaker 4: Deal we had before.
7:40
Speaker 3: The jcpoway was dramatically different than what you were describing
7:44
Speaker 3: here tonight.
7:44
Speaker 5: And I'd ask the president, the former president, I'd say, Obama,
7:48
Speaker 5: why in the world, if it's the same thing, why
7:53
Speaker 5: is it that the golf.
7:53
Speaker 4: Arabs hated your deal and they love our deal. They
7:57
Speaker 4: are the ones who are in the region.
7:58
Speaker 5: They know what it means to enrich the worst terrorist
8:01
Speaker 5: regime in the world, and they also know what it
8:03
Speaker 5: means to turn over a new leaf and to go
8:06
Speaker 5: to a different future. So I think President Obama he
8:09
Speaker 5: should acknowledge that the people who are closest to this,
8:13
Speaker 5: they love the Trump deal, they hate the Obama deal,
8:15
Speaker 5: and that's maybe the biggest endorsement of this plan.
8:18
Speaker 4: Now.
8:18
Speaker 2: In the interviews that JD.
8:20
Speaker 1: Vance did clearly trying to push back on the lies
8:23
Speaker 1: of the left in the media. One of the things
8:25
Speaker 1: that Vance made very clear is he pushed back aggressively
8:29
Speaker 1: against the claims that the United States is handing Iran
8:33
Speaker 1: literally billions of dollars just for signing the agreement.
8:38
Speaker 2: JD.
8:38
Speaker 1: Vance said that is not what is happening here at all.
8:41
Speaker 1: And here's more of why. He says, the facts actually
8:45
Speaker 1: matter to.
8:46
Speaker 3: The people like me that have been very skeptical of
8:49
Speaker 3: the regime. Sure for all these years, number one state
8:51
Speaker 3: sponsor for terror, death to Israel, death oral America. I'm
8:56
Speaker 3: skeptical if this is all true. Reagan talked about this,
9:01
Speaker 3: He said there might be an opportunity for peace in
9:03
Speaker 3: that region, and it might be all of these countries
9:06
Speaker 3: finally getting along. And you even expressed hope that that
9:09
Speaker 3: might be a result of this.
9:11
Speaker 5: Well, again, I'll tell you the Gulf Coast countries, under
9:13
Speaker 5: the President's leadership, they actually feel that that's possible. They
9:16
Speaker 5: don't believe anything either. They're not certain. They're not gonna
9:19
Speaker 5: predict what the Ranians are going to do five years
9:20
Speaker 5: from now, but they see real opportunity. So we're gonna
9:23
Speaker 5: walk down this pathway. We're gonna see how serious.
9:25
Speaker 4: The Iranians are.
9:26
Speaker 5: And Shaun Us, what if they don't meet these obligations,
9:28
Speaker 5: what if they don't do what they promise they're going
9:30
Speaker 5: to do. Number one, they don't get any benefits of
9:32
Speaker 5: the bargain. And as the President would say, we have
9:35
Speaker 5: all the cards. Their economy will still be in very
9:37
Speaker 5: tough shape if they don't get the relief that they
9:40
Speaker 5: need to get in order to make progress. We're still
9:43
Speaker 5: going to have incredible military might, We're still going to
9:46
Speaker 5: have diplomatic leverage over them. We have the cards, and
9:49
Speaker 5: if they don't out of the commitment, we'll figure out
9:51
Speaker 5: what to do.
9:52
Speaker 4: When we get there.
9:53
Speaker 1: Now, that was one of the biggest points ad Vance
9:55
Speaker 1: wanted Americans to understand, and his words is the White
9:59
Speaker 1: House put it out so clearly later in the day.
10:01
Speaker 1: Iran does not get rewards upfront. Iran must earn any
10:06
Speaker 1: economic relief by actually changing their behavior. Now, according to Vance,
10:12
Speaker 1: the sanctioned relief and any broader economic opening, they're tied
10:17
Speaker 1: directly to Iran making long term commitments to abandon any
10:22
Speaker 1: path to a nuclear weapon and also allowing international verification
10:27
Speaker 1: to confirm their compliance at all times.
10:30
Speaker 3: We are not giving them an American dollar. Number one true,
10:34
Speaker 3: And number two, did the US ever sign off on
10:37
Speaker 3: the qataris paying that money.
10:39
Speaker 4: No, we've not.
10:40
Speaker 5: The agreement says they are not getting a single dime
10:43
Speaker 5: of American money.
10:44
Speaker 4: That's just not what this is.
10:46
Speaker 5: What the agreement does say, Sean is again, if the
10:49
Speaker 5: Iranians behave, and if there are sanctions relief, and if
10:53
Speaker 5: the Iranians are integrated into the world economy, we would
10:56
Speaker 5: invite other countries, not US, but other countries to invest
10:59
Speaker 5: in their country. That's fine, but only if they comply
11:03
Speaker 5: with the terms of the agreement.
11:06
Speaker 4: Really, we have an option here, right.
11:07
Speaker 5: The President of the United States has given us optionality,
11:10
Speaker 5: which is great for the American people.
11:12
Speaker 4: Step back for a second.
11:14
Speaker 5: Their conventional military is destroyed, their nuclear weapons program is destroyed.
11:18
Speaker 5: The strait of horror moves is now open. Now we
11:20
Speaker 5: have two pathways. Good to tell free. It is open,
11:23
Speaker 5: toll free, and that's very explicit in the agreement. But
11:25
Speaker 5: now we have two pathways we can go down. Pathway
11:27
Speaker 5: number one is the Iranian economy continues to be strangled.
11:31
Speaker 5: We don't want that, that's not our desire. But in
11:34
Speaker 5: order for them to get pathway too, which is reintegration
11:37
Speaker 5: into the world economy, they have to behave like a
11:39
Speaker 5: normal country.
11:40
Speaker 4: It's a very simple principle.
11:41
Speaker 5: Actually, and what's different about this than previous iterations of
11:46
Speaker 5: the Iranian government previous negotiations is one, the President's negotiating
11:51
Speaker 5: from a position of strength. But number two, we're actually
11:53
Speaker 5: talking directly to them. Tell ya, Sean of five years
11:56
Speaker 5: down the road, they're going to honor that commitment because
11:58
Speaker 5: I can't.
11:59
Speaker 4: Predict the future, or what I can tell you is if.
12:01
Speaker 5: They don't hono their commitments, they don't get a dime
12:04
Speaker 5: from anybody the United States ever, but a dime from
12:07
Speaker 5: anybody else either.
12:09
Speaker 1: Vans went on to explain that the agreement ensures that
12:12
Speaker 1: Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, while simultaneously, as
12:16
Speaker 1: he mentioned, opening the straight ofform moves and the second
12:19
Speaker 1: point is incredibly important. The straight offor Moves is one
12:22
Speaker 1: of the most critical shipping lanes on Earth. We've talked
12:25
Speaker 1: about that on this show multiple times, and a huge
12:29
Speaker 1: percentage of the world's all supply, more than twenty percent,
12:32
Speaker 1: moves through that narrow passage. Now, when Iran threatened the
12:35
Speaker 1: waterway and the conflict that escalated, the energy markets, as
12:39
Speaker 1: you know, panicked. Oil prices climbed because traders feared a
12:42
Speaker 1: disruption of the global supply chain well. Now, with the
12:46
Speaker 1: agreement expected to reopen the straight offom moves without tolls
12:49
Speaker 1: or interference, Vance as Americans now can have security, and
12:55
Speaker 1: that is really important. Freedom of navigation for ships around
12:58
Speaker 1: the world and the stabil for the global energy markets
13:02
Speaker 1: that helps Americans as well.
13:05
Speaker 2: Now. JD. Vance also made it clear it was time to.
13:08
Speaker 1: Blast the media for literally selling the IRGC. That's the
13:14
Speaker 1: Islamic Revolutionary Guards talking points again. The media is selling this,
13:19
Speaker 1: Democrats selling this for twenty four hours and he already
13:23
Speaker 1: said this. The markets are reacting. They know what the
13:27
Speaker 1: deal says and they're not buying into what the media
13:30
Speaker 1: is selling you, which is the IRGC's talking points.
13:34
Speaker 4: And here's the thing. Yes, you're right.
13:36
Speaker 5: Sometimes, when you know information about this deal will leak out,
13:40
Speaker 5: you'll have somebody on a propaganda channel in that country,
13:44
Speaker 5: in Iran who will say something that isn't true.
13:47
Speaker 4: I think it's it's sort of expected.
13:49
Speaker 5: It frustrates me too, but it's expected that some Yahoo
13:52
Speaker 5: is going to say something about the deal that is untrue.
13:55
Speaker 5: What really bothers me and frustrates me and is unexpected
13:58
Speaker 5: when the American media literally picks up talking points in
14:02
Speaker 5: propaganda from the RGC that has no support in the
14:05
Speaker 5: text of the agreement that we've actually negotiated, and no
14:09
Speaker 5: basis in reality.
14:10
Speaker 4: This is good for the American people.
14:12
Speaker 5: The Iranians don't get a dime unless they behave and
14:15
Speaker 5: change their behavior, and this means that Iran will never
14:18
Speaker 5: have a nuclear weapons.
14:19
Speaker 4: Why they did this at a dime?
14:21
Speaker 3: Did they ever get an American dime a taxpayer dollar?
14:24
Speaker 4: No?
14:24
Speaker 5: So, Number one, First of all, they never get a
14:26
Speaker 5: dime of American tax payer money ever, full stop, not
14:29
Speaker 5: even close.
14:30
Speaker 4: What we have said is there's a lot.
14:32
Speaker 5: Of economic benefit in the United States for leaving a
14:34
Speaker 5: lot of sanctions and welcoming them back into the world economy.
14:38
Speaker 4: There's a lot of benefit.
14:39
Speaker 5: They're not American money, but there's a lot of economic
14:41
Speaker 5: prosperity that can flow from that. What the President said
14:44
Speaker 5: to them is, we want you to be a successful country.
14:46
Speaker 5: But for you to be a successful country, you've got
14:49
Speaker 5: to give up on this threat. You've got to give
14:51
Speaker 5: up on this desire to have a nuclear weapon. And
14:53
Speaker 5: if you do that, the United States is willing to
14:56
Speaker 5: have a much better relationship.
14:57
Speaker 2: Now you listen to what JD.
14:59
Speaker 1: Van says there, and he's assuring the American people that
15:01
Speaker 1: pallets of cash like went out under the Obama administration. Well,
15:05
Speaker 1: that's not going to happen. And what the Trump administration
15:08
Speaker 1: is saying is that peace through strength has quickly worked.
15:12
Speaker 1: It's produced a framework that achieves several major objectives. Number
15:16
Speaker 1: one being that Iran remains blocked from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
15:21
Speaker 1: Number two, the Strait of hor Moves is reopened, protecting
15:25
Speaker 1: global commerce and lowering pressure on energy prices. Number three,
15:30
Speaker 1: America is not writing a blank check to Tehran. Any
15:34
Speaker 1: economic benefits are contingent on Iranian compliance. And number four,
15:40
Speaker 1: the agreement creates pathway to a more stable Middle East
15:44
Speaker 1: without a prolonged military conflict. Now, there are still technical
15:49
Speaker 1: negotiations ahead, and the full text the agreement has not
15:52
Speaker 1: yet been seen by the public. But what Van said
15:56
Speaker 1: is the administration tends to release the text so the
15:59
Speaker 1: American people can read it for themselves. A lot of
16:02
Speaker 1: this is because of how much the media has been
16:05
Speaker 1: pushing Iranian propaganda, and yet again President Trump showing the
16:10
Speaker 1: transparency is what his administration is all about. For the
16:14
Speaker 1: American people. It is news that the President has been
16:19
Speaker 1: talking about and telegraphing for quite some time. So here
16:23
Speaker 1: it is President Trump. The deal is scheduled to get signed.
16:28
Speaker 1: That is the headline President Trump announcing over the weekend
16:31
Speaker 1: at a peace agreement between the United States and Iran
16:34
Speaker 1: has effectively been completed and now is awaiting formal signatures.
16:39
Speaker 1: In a true social post, President Trump said the deal
16:42
Speaker 1: is scheduled to get signed tomorrow and immediately after it
16:46
Speaker 1: is signed, the Hormez Strait is open to all now.
16:50
Speaker 1: Trump later stated that the agreement with Iran was now
16:53
Speaker 1: complete and announced that the US naval blockade would end
16:56
Speaker 1: as part of the arrangement. Senior administration officials of indicated
17:00
Speaker 1: they believe the deal is highly likely to be finalized
17:03
Speaker 1: early this week. White House officials reportedly said they were
17:06
Speaker 1: approximately eighty five percent confident of an agreement that would
17:10
Speaker 1: be signed, stressing that any sanctions relief for economic benefits
17:14
Speaker 1: for Iran would be tied to compliance with the terms
17:18
Speaker 1: of the agreement. The administration is repeatedly emphasized that the
17:21
Speaker 1: deal is quote performance base, meaning Iran must fulfill its
17:26
Speaker 1: obligations before receiving significant economic concessions.
17:30
Speaker 2: Now.
17:30
Speaker 1: President Trump's key message on Iran has been very simple.
17:34
Speaker 1: He's repeatedly argued that the objective is also basic. Iran
17:39
Speaker 1: cannot have a nuclear weapon. According to reports early Sunday,
17:44
Speaker 1: Trump said Iran no longer wants a nuclear weapon and
17:48
Speaker 1: express confidence that the agreement would ensure Tehran does not
17:52
Speaker 1: pursue one in the future.
17:54
Speaker 2: Now.
17:54
Speaker 1: Trump has also rejected reports about leaked Iranian versions of
17:58
Speaker 1: the agreements, saying quote terms that Iran leaked out have
18:02
Speaker 1: nothing to do with the terms that were agreed to
18:05
Speaker 1: in writing. He further described Iranian negotiators as very dishonorable
18:10
Speaker 1: people for leaking what he says were inaccurate details. Now,
18:14
Speaker 1: what the deal appears to include that I'm being told
18:17
Speaker 1: is this now the full text, I want to be
18:20
Speaker 1: honest about this has not been released publicly, but I've
18:23
Speaker 1: been told from people that I trust that in the framework,
18:26
Speaker 1: this is what is in there. Number One, reopening the
18:29
Speaker 1: straight up our moves to commercial shipping. We've already seen
18:32
Speaker 1: oil prices drop significantly on that news. Number two ending
18:38
Speaker 1: the US naval blockade. Number three, a sixty day period
18:43
Speaker 1: of negotiations over RAN's nuclear program. The other issue in
18:48
Speaker 1: the deal is this Iranian's commitment to not pursue nuclear weapons,
18:53
Speaker 1: and then there are different things tied to that that
18:57
Speaker 1: also includes the quote potential sanction relief, all again tied
19:02
Speaker 1: to verified compliance. This is literally the definition of trust.
19:07
Speaker 1: But verify now if you're looking at this from a
19:09
Speaker 1: big picture moment for the Trump White House, this message
19:13
Speaker 1: at peace through strength not only is their plan, but
19:16
Speaker 1: it's worked. And after months and military pressure, economic pressure,
19:21
Speaker 1: and international negotiations, the administration is now saying this is
19:25
Speaker 1: a major diplomatic victory that not only could reopen one
19:29
Speaker 1: of the world's most important energy corridors, but also forces
19:33
Speaker 1: a ran back to the negotiation table and now concessions
19:38
Speaker 1: on their nuclear ambitions. President Trump is now betting that
19:42
Speaker 1: the maximum pressure that was produced and what years of
19:45
Speaker 1: diplomacy could not under other administrations, is that now we
19:50
Speaker 1: have in Iran that agrees not only to keep the
19:52
Speaker 1: stratiform moves open and return to the negotiating table, but
19:56
Speaker 1: now publicly is saying that they are not going to
19:59
Speaker 1: obtain a nuclear weapon. The administration is now saying the
20:03
Speaker 1: deal is done quote unquote, and now the world's going
20:06
Speaker 1: to be watching to see if Tehran will actually follow through.
20:09
Speaker 2: Now.
20:10
Speaker 1: To be clear, Iran could lie, Iran could renig, Iran
20:15
Speaker 1: could not sign the deal at the last moment. All
20:18
Speaker 1: of these things are real options. By the way, they
20:20
Speaker 1: could also sign the deal, and after they sign that deal,
20:25
Speaker 1: something else could happen. They could well break the terms
20:29
Speaker 1: of the deal. There is a lot that could happen.
20:34
Speaker 1: There is a lot that could go wrong when you're
20:36
Speaker 1: dealing with a terrorist organization, and that is exactly who
20:39
Speaker 1: we are dealing with. There is no doubt that things
20:41
Speaker 1: could change. But what the President has also made clear
20:45
Speaker 1: is this, if they do renig on the deal, if
20:48
Speaker 1: they lie, if they try to cheat, if they do
20:52
Speaker 1: something they're not supposed to do, America will respond, and
20:56
Speaker 1: more than likely we will respond in a military manner,
20:59
Speaker 1: will certainly re respond instantly with sanctions. We will respond
21:04
Speaker 1: in any way that we need to, in any way
21:07
Speaker 1: that we feel like we need to to protect America.
21:11
Speaker 1: Because this does boil down to one issue. This is
21:14
Speaker 1: a national security, a national defense issue. The President has
21:19
Speaker 1: made that abundantly clear. By the way, the same Democrats
21:23
Speaker 1: that are criticizing this president right now are the same
21:26
Speaker 1: Democrats that demanded that Iran not getting nuclear weapons that
21:30
Speaker 1: promised to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. This is
21:35
Speaker 1: the same Democratic Party and the Obama administration and the
21:38
Speaker 1: Biden administration that said there was a red line with
21:42
Speaker 1: Iran getting a nuclear weapon.
21:43
Speaker 2: So if you're a liberal.
21:44
Speaker 1: Right now and you're angry over what the President just
21:47
Speaker 1: pulled off, you're then actually really angry with the same
21:50
Speaker 1: foreign policy that the Democratic Party promised you, promised you
21:55
Speaker 1: that they were going to follow through on, and they
21:58
Speaker 1: did not do it. So here we are inching closer,
22:01
Speaker 1: many would argue, much closer to a real nuclear deal,
22:05
Speaker 1: a real deal that keeps America safe and honestly the
22:09
Speaker 1: rest of the world. Are there things that could change, Yes,
22:13
Speaker 1: But if you want a real headline right now, here's
22:16
Speaker 1: what I would write. The Iran War is over. A
22:19
Speaker 1: deal has been reached between the US and Iran. President
22:23
Speaker 1: Trump is urging the ships of the world to start
22:26
Speaker 1: your engines because the Strait of Hormuz opens on Friday.
22:32
Speaker 1: President Trump yet again confirming not just the US but
22:36
Speaker 1: to the world that a peace deal with Iran is complete,
22:40
Speaker 1: and most importantly, adding that the Strait of Hormuz was
22:43
Speaker 1: reopening and that the US Navy blockade of the Strait
22:47
Speaker 1: would come to an end. This is a victory that
22:50
Speaker 1: every American should celebrate and many around the world should celebrate.
22:54
Speaker 1: And as a victory the President, by the way, gave
22:56
Speaker 1: us on his birthday weekend as he turned a years old.
23:01
Speaker 1: The Vice President JD. Van saying, this Iran deal will
23:05
Speaker 1: transform the Middle East and ensure that Tehran will never
23:09
Speaker 1: ever have a nuclear weapon. By the way, world leaders
23:14
Speaker 1: are also praising President Trump at this hour, saying it
23:18
Speaker 1: is hugely important the Iranian peace deal. And what's happening
23:23
Speaker 1: with crude oil? Well, at this moment, as I'm recording,
23:26
Speaker 1: this crude has fallen to the lowest price since March
23:31
Speaker 1: the fifth on the Iran war. Ending something else that
23:35
Speaker 1: the President of the United States of America promised.
23:38
Speaker 2: What happen now?
23:39
Speaker 1: This is good news as well going into the midterm elections.
23:43
Speaker 1: And make no mistake about it, President was looking at
23:45
Speaker 1: that calendar just like every other candidate that.
23:48
Speaker 2: Was on the ballot.
23:49
Speaker 1: Now, story number two, there's a second.
23:51
Speaker 2: Part of this story.
23:53
Speaker 1: And for months, the so called experts have told Americans
23:56
Speaker 1: to brace for skyrocketing energy prices and then skyrocketing inflation,
24:01
Speaker 1: and then massive economic pain because of the tensions with
24:04
Speaker 1: the RAN and then the uncertainty in the Middle East. Instead,
24:07
Speaker 1: what happened. President Donald Trump announced that a deal had
24:10
Speaker 1: been reached with the RAN and that meant the strifermus
24:13
Speaker 1: would reopen, and almost immediately, the markets responded with exactly
24:18
Speaker 1: what the present predicted weeks and months ago. It was
24:21
Speaker 1: a message that was impossible to ignore, even if you're
24:26
Speaker 1: crazy lefty. Oil prices immediately dropped. Crude oil. As I'm recording,
24:31
Speaker 1: this has fallen sharply after the announcement, wiping out much
24:34
Speaker 1: of the quote unquote war premium the traders had built
24:37
Speaker 1: into the market. Investors now saw a world where old
24:40
Speaker 1: shipments could move freely again, and more importantly, where fears
24:44
Speaker 1: of a prolonged regional conflict were reduce, and that meant
24:48
Speaker 1: that energy supplies would then remain stable once again. President
24:53
Speaker 1: Donald Trump was right Throughout all the negotiations. Trump argued
24:57
Speaker 1: that peacers strength would work. He insisted that some pressure
25:00
Speaker 1: on a RAN would force its leaders to the table
25:02
Speaker 1: and ultimately it would produce a better outcome than endless conflict. Critics,
25:07
Speaker 1: of course, they mock the approach. They predict a disaster
25:10
Speaker 1: they warned that oil prices would soar and that American
25:13
Speaker 1: consumers would be left paying the price indefinitely. Instead, yet
25:16
Speaker 1: again the opposite is happening. It's exactly what the President said.
25:20
Speaker 1: It would be temporarily and the pain would be worth
25:23
Speaker 1: it because we wouldn't have what could happen with a
25:26
Speaker 1: nuclear Iran. Now, the moment confidence actually returned was the
25:31
Speaker 1: moment that shipping lanes where announced they would also remain open,
25:34
Speaker 1: and then energy supplies would continue flowing. And now traders
25:37
Speaker 1: are selling oil. Markets are forward looking. They don't trade
25:41
Speaker 1: on politics. They trade on what their expectations are. And
25:45
Speaker 1: the expectation now is that the risk of a major
25:48
Speaker 1: disruption and global oil surprise has again fallen dramatically. That's
25:52
Speaker 1: not politics, that's oil economics. And this all matters because yes,
25:58
Speaker 1: oil impacts almost everything Americans purchase and really the world.
26:03
Speaker 1: And when oil prices rise, transportation costs rise, shipping costs rise,
26:08
Speaker 1: manufacturing costs rise, food prices rise, airline tickets become more expensive,
26:14
Speaker 1: and inflation. You guessed, it gets a lot worse. But
26:18
Speaker 1: what President Trump said is this was temporary, and when
26:20
Speaker 1: the oil prices fall, the opposite thing happens. Lower oil
26:24
Speaker 1: prices create downward pressure on gasoline prices, and they help
26:28
Speaker 1: businesses control costs, and they reduce inflationary pressure throughout the
26:33
Speaker 1: entire economy, and they put more money back into the
26:35
Speaker 1: pockets of you guessed it, hard working Americans. This is
26:39
Speaker 1: why the energy markets matter so much. And just to remember,
26:43
Speaker 1: it was a very short time ago there were warnings
26:46
Speaker 1: that crude oil could spike well above one hundred dollars
26:48
Speaker 1: per barrel if the tensions escalated. Some analysts were predicting
26:52
Speaker 1: a major shock to the global economy. At the stratiform
26:54
Speaker 1: moves remained threatened at all, nearly one fifth of the
26:57
Speaker 1: world's all supply moves through that narrow waterway. But because
27:01
Speaker 1: now Trump has announced the deal, and because the markets
27:04
Speaker 1: react to actual facts, not politics, they believe a deal
27:08
Speaker 1: has been reached and the shipping routes will remain open.
27:11
Speaker 1: And now that means their fears are fading, and that
27:14
Speaker 1: means the prices are falling. For the Trump administration, this
27:18
Speaker 1: is more than just an energy story. It's also a
27:20
Speaker 1: validation of a broader argument the present made for years
27:24
Speaker 1: that strong American leadership creates economic certainty instead of uncertainty.
27:29
Speaker 1: Trump has repeatedly said that lower energy costs lead to
27:32
Speaker 1: lower inflation, stronger economic growth, and a more affordable cost
27:37
Speaker 1: of living. He also said long time ago, that's why
27:40
Speaker 1: we must be energy independent aka drill, baby drill, And
27:45
Speaker 1: that's why many of US supporters argue that the market
27:48
Speaker 1: reaction that we're seeing right now is proved that that
27:51
Speaker 1: is principal in action.
27:53
Speaker 2: Now.
27:53
Speaker 1: The test is going to come in the weeks and
27:54
Speaker 1: months ahead. Let's be clear the details the agreement, yes,
27:58
Speaker 1: they matter most important. Lee Iran's compliance matters, and that
28:03
Speaker 1: means the issue of stability in the region is also
28:06
Speaker 1: extremely important. But right now, the market's initial verdict is clear.
28:11
Speaker 1: The announcement is a deal with a RAN and it
28:14
Speaker 1: didn't send the old prices soaring. It sent them falling
28:17
Speaker 1: by more than five percent. And what does that mean
28:19
Speaker 1: for millions of Americans who have spent years battling higher
28:22
Speaker 1: prices the gas pump under previous administrations, by the way,
28:25
Speaker 1: that did it on purpose to force you into green
28:28
Speaker 1: alternative energy, well gas prices, grocery store prices and everything
28:32
Speaker 1: in between. They're going to come falling down, which brings
28:35
Speaker 1: me to my final point. Once again. President Donald Trump
28:39
Speaker 1: is pointing to the scoreboard and saying exactly what he
28:41
Speaker 1: said all along. When peace, stability and American strength returned
28:46
Speaker 1: to the equation, prices come down, and the American economy, well,
28:50
Speaker 1: that's what wins. And what does that mean. It means
28:53
Speaker 1: the American worker wins. It means the retiree wins. It
28:57
Speaker 1: means that the small business owner wins. And that's that's
29:00
Speaker 1: what we're seeing right now.
29:02
Speaker 2: We'll keep following this story.
29:03
Speaker 1: I can promise you that we've got a lot more
29:06
Speaker 1: that's going to happen the days ahead. So make sure
29:08
Speaker 1: you don't forget Grab our podcast, the Ben Ferguson Podcasts
29:12
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