Latest / The Ben Ferguson Podcast / Win-Win or Wishful Thinking—Iran MOU Insight w guest Ben Domenech

Transcript

Win-Win or Wishful Thinking—Iran MOU Insight w guest Ben Domenech · The Ben Ferguson Podcast

0:00
Speaker 1: This is one of those.
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Speaker 2: Really, I'm just going to start off by saying unique
0:05
Speaker 2: and frustrating moments that I have in my career where
0:09
Speaker 2: I would love to come on here and tell you
0:11
Speaker 2: that the rand nuclear deal after seeing the memo of
0:14
Speaker 2: understanding is amazing, but I cannot do that. This is
0:19
Speaker 2: awkward when you are trying to tell people that love
0:22
Speaker 2: the president that he's getting bad advice. And to be clear,
0:27
Speaker 2: it's awkward when you're going on TV and you're having
0:29
Speaker 2: to say this. And my good friend Ben Namichi, you
0:32
Speaker 2: have to deal with this a lot right now. Congratulations.
0:35
Speaker 2: I'm watching you on TV and I'm smiling and laughing
0:37
Speaker 2: because I know how stressful it is because you want
0:39
Speaker 2: to pick your words wisely. He's also the man in
0:42
Speaker 2: charge of the Daily Wire opinion editor and host of
0:45
Speaker 2: the Big Bench Show as well. You can grab that
0:47
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, and you see him on
0:49
Speaker 2: FOXATIONW So Ben, you and I I think are very
0:52
Speaker 2: much alike on this where it's like how do you
0:54
Speaker 2: thread the needle? I started the show by saying, there's
0:57
Speaker 2: three big things that I have major concerns on and
1:01
Speaker 2: why I feel like this is this is not the
1:04
Speaker 2: deal that we should be advocating for. And I think
1:06
Speaker 2: the presence getting bad advice number one, the Lebanon clause
1:09
Speaker 2: terrifies me in this minomum of understanding. The Hormuz clause also,
1:14
Speaker 2: I think, is a disaster waiting to happen. We're rewarding
1:17
Speaker 2: Iran with an essence control of the strait and be like, well,
1:21
Speaker 2: hold on, Oman's in there too, Like that's not something
1:23
Speaker 2: like to make it better in my mind. And then
1:25
Speaker 2: the third part about this is we're actually they're the
1:28
Speaker 2: ones that shut down the straight and we're rewarding them
1:31
Speaker 2: with more than.
1:32
Speaker 1: Palettes of cash.
1:33
Speaker 2: If you were angry about pallets of cash sent by Obama,
1:36
Speaker 2: you should be losing your mind right now because the
1:38
Speaker 2: money question here is a big part of this. And
1:40
Speaker 2: if Iran is going to actually get paid before the
1:42
Speaker 2: deal is final, then they might just straight up be
1:45
Speaker 2: lying to us to get their hands on the cash
1:47
Speaker 2: and then not get the deal done either. Those are
1:49
Speaker 2: my three glaring things. Let's walk through them and get
1:52
Speaker 2: your take.
1:53
Speaker 3: So I'll go in reverse order. First off, the money
1:56
Speaker 3: part of this is to me the most embarrassing and ridiculous.
2:01
Speaker 3: You should not have to pay this type of price
2:03
Speaker 3: to the Ayatola in order to have some kind of
2:07
Speaker 3: deal in this situation, unfreezing what could ultimately be you know,
2:12
Speaker 3: as much as three hundred billion dollars, and also of
2:16
Speaker 3: course unfreezing right off the bat, you know, a smaller
2:19
Speaker 3: portion of that, and allowing them to sell oil right
2:22
Speaker 3: off the bat before they've actually done anything measurably to
2:27
Speaker 3: demonstrate that they're going to move in the direction that
2:29
Speaker 3: we want to me. That's just abhorrent. You can't do
2:32
Speaker 3: that because once we know what they spend money on,
2:36
Speaker 3: then have so much experience, we know what their shopping
2:39
Speaker 3: list is. Okay, it's missiles, it's weapons or terrorists, it's
2:44
Speaker 3: weapons for people who want to kill Americans. It's weapons
2:46
Speaker 3: for people who want to kill friends of America. And
2:49
Speaker 3: that's what they're going to do. Again, it's not they're
2:51
Speaker 3: not building roads with this craft, they're not creating a
2:55
Speaker 3: universal healthcare system with this They're just going to start
2:59
Speaker 3: throwing it away.
3:00
Speaker 2: We laugh because it's so absurd. We know what they're
3:03
Speaker 2: going to do with the money. The other part that
3:05
Speaker 2: I think is absurd is the money is going to
3:08
Speaker 2: who's de facto in charge right now of Iran, and
3:12
Speaker 2: that is a terrorist organization. We've declared a terrorist organization.
3:16
Speaker 2: Obama said, their terrorist organization. Biden said, their tarist organization.
3:20
Speaker 2: We've said it. It's the RGC, like that's who's in charge.
3:24
Speaker 3: Well, and this is the thing that is so odd
3:26
Speaker 3: about this because it's the president has made and I
3:32
Speaker 3: appreciate you, you know, walking people through the difficulty of
3:36
Speaker 3: criticizing here. Part of the reason that it's difficult is
3:39
Speaker 3: because the president has made so many great decisions when
3:42
Speaker 3: it comes to foreign policy and national security. I have been,
3:45
Speaker 3: you know, really blown away by how smart he's been,
3:48
Speaker 3: how much he has made key decisions at key moments
3:52
Speaker 3: to deploy American military might in ways that have served
3:55
Speaker 3: our interest. I think it's been great. The problem is
3:59
Speaker 3: this deal on does a lot of that from my perspective,
4:02
Speaker 3: and the Strait is the perfect example of that. Before
4:05
Speaker 3: this conflict started, Iran was not in control of the
4:08
Speaker 3: straight up horn moves. The idea that they would be
4:10
Speaker 3: charging tolls and fees in order to go through it
4:13
Speaker 3: was absurd. Now this deal presupposes that they're going to
4:17
Speaker 3: start doing that sixty days from now, and the money
4:20
Speaker 3: that they are going to get from selling their oil
4:22
Speaker 3: is going to start immediately. So the idea that this
4:26
Speaker 3: is a situation where I mean, Trey Gouty said this,
4:28
Speaker 3: I'm not sure that it's true. I think we could
4:31
Speaker 3: see the way it plays out, but he argued that
4:33
Speaker 3: this was actually a worse outcome than before the war.
4:37
Speaker 3: I would disagree slightly, only because their ballistic missile program
4:41
Speaker 3: has been set back significantly, their military program has been
4:44
Speaker 3: set back significantly in terms of their navy, and we've
4:47
Speaker 3: also seen the deaths of a number of their leading
4:50
Speaker 3: military figures and religious deocrats who want us dead. Those
4:55
Speaker 3: are all good things, and so we shouldn't pretend that
4:57
Speaker 3: that's not good. The problem is if you come out
4:59
Speaker 3: of this with a deal where the Iranians actually have
5:02
Speaker 3: more money to spend on their grocery list, and they
5:06
Speaker 3: feel like they've won, they feel like that we came
5:08
Speaker 3: to them on our bended need begging for a deal,
5:12
Speaker 3: which is certainly how this seems given the context of it.
5:16
Speaker 3: How much does that play into setting us back? Which
5:19
Speaker 3: you know, the President's taking huge strives forward in re
5:21
Speaker 3: establishing American authority around the world, making sure that you know,
5:26
Speaker 3: nations that are our opponents fear us. There's a reason
5:29
Speaker 3: that Chinese, you know, for instance, didn't come to the
5:31
Speaker 3: Uranians aid, even though they're proxy, and that's something that
5:35
Speaker 3: I think is a very good thing. Unfortunately, this outcome
5:39
Speaker 3: seems like it's being settled for entirely domestic political reasons,
5:42
Speaker 3: and that the spin around it. Quite honestly, the spin,
5:46
Speaker 3: I don't know if you obsessed this the same way.
5:48
Speaker 3: Spin coming from the president seems more reluctant. It seems
5:51
Speaker 3: more about the economic ramifications. And you know, he admits, hey,
5:55
Speaker 3: if they go back on this, we'll be dropping bombs
5:57
Speaker 3: on their head again, you know, shortly. And that was
6:01
Speaker 3: even if you're doing that, the money's already flowing.
6:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, he said that in Paris. I want to play this.
6:06
Speaker 2: It was simple eight seconds before he got on the jet.
6:08
Speaker 2: And here's what he said.
6:10
Speaker 1: If they don't come through, is it a threat that
6:12
Speaker 1: we bomb? You could call whatever you want, but it'll
6:17
Speaker 1: probably happen. Let's be clear.
6:19
Speaker 2: You and I believe him one hundred percent that he
6:21
Speaker 2: will bomb the living crap out of him again if
6:22
Speaker 2: he needs to. So that goes back to the politics
6:25
Speaker 2: of this and the part Trey Gouty, by the way,
6:28
Speaker 2: said this one of your colleagues at Fox. He said,
6:30
Speaker 2: you know this deal is in place. The IATELA doesn't
6:34
Speaker 2: get doesn't have term limits in a year and a
6:36
Speaker 2: half two years like the president does, and he's still
6:40
Speaker 2: going to be in charge. So you make a deal here,
6:43
Speaker 2: and yeah, you can have trust that the President's going
6:45
Speaker 2: to do what he needs to do. But if the
6:47
Speaker 2: framework's still there, then guess what the next guy inherits it.
6:50
Speaker 1: And that's not a good thing either. If this is
6:52
Speaker 1: what's in it.
6:53
Speaker 3: Exactly, if Gavin Newsom's in that oval office, or god forbid,
6:57
Speaker 3: somebody else, you know, it's it's not a situation where
7:00
Speaker 3: I think you can have any confidence that they would
7:02
Speaker 3: do what is necessary. And look, I want to be
7:05
Speaker 3: clear about this. This is not an advocacy for some
7:08
Speaker 3: kind of extended boots on the ground conflict. And I
7:12
Speaker 3: think it was actually and I'll be critical of Vice
7:15
Speaker 3: President here because he responded to something that I said
7:17
Speaker 3: about him and he declared he sort of lumped me
7:20
Speaker 3: in with other folks, said they want to have this
7:23
Speaker 3: extended war where we're just bombing until every Iranian is dead.
7:27
Speaker 3: That's yes, that is not true. The simple fact is
7:31
Speaker 3: I want an outcome that is in America's interest, and
7:34
Speaker 3: it is not in America's interest to hand billions of
7:37
Speaker 3: dollars to people who want to kill us and our friends.
7:40
Speaker 3: That's just facts, and the fact that you have, I mean,
7:44
Speaker 3: that's a total straw man. It's the same way that
7:46
Speaker 3: the Obama bros. Paid you know, played this back when
7:49
Speaker 3: they were arguing for the JCPOA. They said, well, if
7:52
Speaker 3: we don't do this, if this is such an existential threat,
7:54
Speaker 3: we will have to have another endless war in the
7:56
Speaker 3: Middle East. And that's what everybody who's critical of this is. No,
8:01
Speaker 3: that is just not true. What we want is a
8:04
Speaker 3: resolution to this that doesn't have us handing over a
8:07
Speaker 3: gigantic bag of money to the people who hate us.
8:10
Speaker 2: Well, let me ask you about that criticism in the
8:13
Speaker 2: back and forth for people that don't know what caused that,
8:17
Speaker 2: explain that real quick You had said some things very quickly.
8:20
Speaker 2: You were in the first to sound the alarm. That's,
8:22
Speaker 2: by the way, I think it's brave. And there's a
8:24
Speaker 2: lot of people that are saying what you're saying and
8:26
Speaker 2: what I'm saying now behind the scenes, they're not going
8:28
Speaker 2: to say it publicly because they don't want to take
8:30
Speaker 2: the heat from the MAGA world, Right, I say it
8:34
Speaker 2: this way. I really do believe this. I believe the
8:35
Speaker 2: present's getting bad advice. And when your president, when you
8:39
Speaker 2: feel like the present's getting bad advice, I think it's
8:41
Speaker 2: our job to tell him that publicly.
8:43
Speaker 1: And that's what you're basically saying.
8:45
Speaker 3: Really, yeah, I mean, I look the what Ben is
8:48
Speaker 3: referring to the fact that I went on Special Report
8:50
Speaker 3: and said that we shouldn't be backsliding into some kind
8:53
Speaker 3: of hillbilly Obama version of foreign policy. What I mean
8:56
Speaker 3: by that is this, if you are just rebranding the
9:00
Speaker 3: approach that Obama used as being a you know, screaming
9:04
Speaker 3: American eagle saying, you know, this is a great plan,
9:07
Speaker 3: that is just not accurate. It's not what is actually
9:10
Speaker 3: going on, and it ignores the truth about what the
9:13
Speaker 3: facts of these plans are. And so from my perspective,
9:16
Speaker 3: this is a this is kind of a branding exercise.
9:19
Speaker 3: You know, the Vice President's been out there, he's been
9:21
Speaker 3: arguing for it. Clearly he believes in it. I don't.
9:24
Speaker 3: I think that it's a mistake, and I think that
9:26
Speaker 3: we should be free to criticize in this situation, in
9:28
Speaker 3: part because I think the President himself kind of thinks
9:31
Speaker 3: this may or may not work. You know, we've got
9:33
Speaker 3: sixty days to figure out what's going to happen. There
9:36
Speaker 3: could be some major changes to it, but look, I
9:39
Speaker 3: don't want some kind of warmed over version of we
9:43
Speaker 3: need to pay off terrorist states in order to keep
9:45
Speaker 3: the peace in the world. I don't think that's true.
9:47
Speaker 3: I think what you know, the fact is we have
9:50
Speaker 3: done great damage to the Iranian regime. I think that's
9:53
Speaker 3: a good thing. But we do not need to turn
9:55
Speaker 3: this into some situation where, you know, everyone who has
9:59
Speaker 3: a critique of this deal, which has critics by the
10:01
Speaker 3: way that run the gamut on Capitol Hill, they do
10:04
Speaker 3: not just include the Hawks on a rand. They include
10:06
Speaker 3: a lot of other people too. That is a sign
10:09
Speaker 3: that I think that this deal should be reconsidered. The
10:12
Speaker 3: President should reconsider it, and over the next sixty days,
10:16
Speaker 3: if once this is presumably signed on Friday, you're going
10:20
Speaker 3: to have, I think, a real work to try to
10:23
Speaker 3: make this something that is better than it currently is.
10:26
Speaker 2: Let me ask you devil's advocate question here, and my
10:28
Speaker 2: guess with me. Is Ben Dominic, that Daily Wire editor.
10:32
Speaker 2: He's the opinion section there, also hosts the Big Ben Show.
10:36
Speaker 1: My question for.
10:37
Speaker 2: You is, is this and could this possibly just be
10:41
Speaker 2: the pressure of the mid terms and maybe the president
10:45
Speaker 2: understands And I said this on Fox earlier today. Look,
10:49
Speaker 2: midterms are coming. It's clear the present understands it and
10:52
Speaker 2: feels it. Other Republicans understand it and feel it. I
10:55
Speaker 2: have no doubt that the President will bomb them back
10:58
Speaker 2: into the Stone ages yet again, needs to is some
11:01
Speaker 2: of this maybe Hey, I just need to hit pause
11:03
Speaker 2: right now, get oil prices down, gas prices down, and
11:07
Speaker 2: I'm not afraid to deal with them after. But I
11:09
Speaker 2: don't want to deal with them in the minority. I mean,
11:11
Speaker 2: they had a vote, and if it wasn't for John Fetterman,
11:14
Speaker 2: war power on a RAM would have looked very different
11:16
Speaker 2: for the president. It only only because of Fetterman did
11:19
Speaker 2: it not pass the Senate.
11:20
Speaker 1: And that was yesterday.
11:22
Speaker 3: Look, I think you're completely on to what's actually going
11:26
Speaker 3: on here. The dynamics of this are driven by the
11:29
Speaker 3: fact that there are a bunch of Republicans who are
11:31
Speaker 3: trying to keep their jobs, who are scared about gas
11:34
Speaker 3: prices and what it's done to middle and working class
11:36
Speaker 3: families going into the summer, and they're scared about the
11:40
Speaker 3: situation in the in the oil markets, and they want
11:43
Speaker 3: a short term solution in order to keep their jobs.
11:46
Speaker 3: I think the problem is that, as you said, the
11:49
Speaker 3: Ietol doesn't have that kind of restriction on him, and
11:52
Speaker 3: once he starts getting that money, he's going to keep it,
11:55
Speaker 3: and he's going to use it and he's going to
11:56
Speaker 3: spend it. And so that's I think the real problem
11:59
Speaker 3: here that they have short term We've got to keep
12:02
Speaker 3: a hold of things. Guess what, you know, the historic trends,
12:05
Speaker 3: we're always going to be against them. I think Republicans
12:07
Speaker 3: are likely to lose the House in the fall, even
12:10
Speaker 3: though it's a lot closer than it used to be
12:13
Speaker 3: in terms of how much Democrats have gone insane, and
12:17
Speaker 3: it's a real run thing. When it comes to the Senate,
12:19
Speaker 3: it's tougher than I think people expected it to be.
12:22
Speaker 3: And what that ultimately means, I think is that these
12:25
Speaker 3: domestic political pressures are putting the president in the position
12:27
Speaker 3: where he has to make a short term call that
12:30
Speaker 3: may end up going and falling back over the entire
12:34
Speaker 3: party in November or December, assuming that the Iranians do
12:38
Speaker 3: the exact same kind of thing that they've done so
12:40
Speaker 3: many times in the past.
12:42
Speaker 2: Final question for you on this, and this goes back
12:45
Speaker 2: to Israel. You are an ally Israel, so am I.
12:48
Speaker 2: I'm unabashful about that. This Lebanon clause concerns me because
12:52
Speaker 2: it neuters I think Israel's ability to do what they
12:56
Speaker 2: need to do to go after terrace in Lebanon, and
12:59
Speaker 2: there are a lot of them there. And by the way,
13:00
Speaker 2: those chaists there will get immediate instant funding from RAM
13:03
Speaker 2: when they start getting this money from all sales, which
13:05
Speaker 2: would happen immediately before the deal's even done. Apparently that
13:09
Speaker 2: worries me. And look, then you've got to go with
13:12
Speaker 2: Hold on a second. If we're there to protect Israel
13:15
Speaker 2: and their ally, why would we have that in there
13:18
Speaker 2: as well.
13:20
Speaker 3: I think this is an indication of the strain that
13:23
Speaker 3: has developed between the Israeli government and VV and the president.
13:27
Speaker 3: But let me tell you this. Look, I was on
13:31
Speaker 3: one of our Dally Wire programs yesterday with our friend
13:35
Speaker 3: Baion Arsarga, and she said, look, if this was a
13:37
Speaker 3: bad deal for Israel, but a good deal for the
13:40
Speaker 3: United States. I would still be in favor of it
13:42
Speaker 3: because the United States needs to look for its interest.
13:44
Speaker 3: But the truth is this is a bad deal for
13:46
Speaker 3: both parties, and I think that that's something that has
13:50
Speaker 3: to be factored into here. There should be no aspect
13:54
Speaker 3: of this deal that has anything to do with what's
13:56
Speaker 3: going on in Lebanon. That is not part of this deal.
14:00
Speaker 3: And hezblot is I mean, look, the Israeli Israeli leadership
14:07
Speaker 3: and their military deserve the right to defend themselves, which
14:10
Speaker 3: is what they are doing in this instance. They should
14:13
Speaker 3: be allowed to continue to do that. And I realized
14:15
Speaker 3: that disrupts things for some of the other aims that
14:18
Speaker 3: the President has, but you know, basically preventing them from
14:22
Speaker 3: defending themselves is a very bad message to send in
14:26
Speaker 3: that region. We should allow them to do that, and
14:28
Speaker 3: we should make sure that they have the ability to
14:31
Speaker 3: do that. And preventing them from doing that just because
14:34
Speaker 3: of some deal that you, quite frankly I think is
14:37
Speaker 3: not going to last long term, is absurd. We know
14:40
Speaker 3: the consequences of stuff like this, and as you said,
14:43
Speaker 3: that money is going to start flowing to these terrorist
14:45
Speaker 3: groups immediately. And they are going to be more lives
14:47
Speaker 3: lost because of it.
14:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great point.
14:50
Speaker 2: I also think, based on my intel, you may have
14:52
Speaker 2: something different that there's more than a handful of Republican
14:56
Speaker 2: centers right now that are saying this is a bad deal.
14:59
Speaker 3: Yes, yes, it's all I've been getting in terms of
15:03
Speaker 3: my phone call today. And again, the people who are
15:06
Speaker 3: saying that are not necessarily the people who were raw Rah,
15:09
Speaker 3: let's go into Iran. It's a lot of the people
15:11
Speaker 3: who were like, Okay, you know, if the president believes
15:13
Speaker 3: in this, you know, I'm there with him. But now
15:16
Speaker 3: they're saying, look, this is not how we wanted this
15:19
Speaker 3: to get wrapped up. You know, we thought we could
15:21
Speaker 3: achieve something a lot better. And look, maybe there's a
15:24
Speaker 3: part of this that is driven by the hubris of
15:26
Speaker 3: how successful he's been in every other area. But look,
15:29
Speaker 3: we'll have the ability to look back in the future
15:31
Speaker 3: and see how this is judged, assuming that it goes
15:34
Speaker 3: forward the way that it currently is.
15:36
Speaker 2: Make sure you check out Ben and the work he
15:38
Speaker 2: does the Daily Wire opinion editor there. They did great
15:40
Speaker 2: work there. Also hosts The Big Bench Show. You can
15:42
Speaker 2: check him out also on Fox station show as well.
15:44
Speaker 2: Ben Dominic, I appreciate you coming on and having this conversation.
15:47
Speaker 2: It's a hard one, but I hope it's one that
15:49
Speaker 2: everyone listening now understands this better. You can decide what
15:52
Speaker 2: you want on this afterwards, what you want to advocate for,
15:55
Speaker 2: but I say it, these are the tough conversations, and
15:58
Speaker 2: I think the most important is con servatives, and that's
16:01
Speaker 2: why we had it for you today.
16:01
Speaker 1: So Ben, things a coming on.
16:03
Speaker 3: Great to be with you.
16:05
Speaker 2: My goal today is to educate you about what is
16:08
Speaker 2: in the deal, or maybe what's not in the deal,
16:10
Speaker 2: and why I believe that the President is getting bad
16:14
Speaker 2: advice from some people around him. All right, that's the
16:17
Speaker 2: whole goal here. I want to make this deal better.
16:20
Speaker 2: I want to make it better for the president. I
16:22
Speaker 2: want to make it better for the American people. I
16:23
Speaker 2: want to make it better for national security, and I
16:25
Speaker 2: believe the president is getting bad advice.
16:27
Speaker 1: Now.
16:28
Speaker 2: For months, we've all been told the objective of this
16:32
Speaker 2: entire thing with Iran was simple, stop the world's leading
16:36
Speaker 2: state sponsor of terrorism from obtaining a nuclear weapon. I
16:40
Speaker 2: do believe the President is absolutely doing that. So let's
16:43
Speaker 2: just start with that, all right, We also were told
16:46
Speaker 2: this about restoring stability of the Middle East and ensure
16:49
Speaker 2: freedom of navigation through the most important waterway on Earth,
16:53
Speaker 2: the Straight.
16:53
Speaker 1: Of Horn Moves.
16:55
Speaker 2: When it comes to that, that is now my biggest
16:58
Speaker 2: concern is that we are actually not going to get that.
17:02
Speaker 2: And you may say, Ben, what do you mean we're
17:03
Speaker 2: not going to get that? Well, if you look at
17:06
Speaker 2: the Memo of understanding, Iran is going to be rewarded,
17:10
Speaker 2: is the best way I can describe it. With having
17:12
Speaker 2: power over the Strait of Hormuz. That is something that
17:16
Speaker 2: I think is unacceptable. I don't believe that's the right decision.
17:20
Speaker 2: I think that that is one of the most important
17:23
Speaker 2: waterways on Earth, and we've witnessed how much it is
17:26
Speaker 2: can be used against us, and now we're seeing it
17:29
Speaker 2: straight up how much it is being used against us.
17:32
Speaker 2: All right, So let's just I want to start with that.
17:36
Speaker 1: Now.
17:37
Speaker 2: The text, the proposal and the Memo of understanding is
17:43
Speaker 2: out there.
17:43
Speaker 1: You can read it.
17:44
Speaker 2: I'll read parts of it to you if I need to,
17:47
Speaker 2: but I'm going to give you the overall all right,
17:50
Speaker 2: this is where the debate now is erupting, and where
17:52
Speaker 2: guys like me are saming the alarm telling you this
17:55
Speaker 2: is not the right agreement. There are real aretuments now
18:00
Speaker 2: over whether the agreement achieves the goals that I mentioned
18:03
Speaker 2: above all right, whether Tehran walks away with significant concessions, which,
18:07
Speaker 2: based on what we have read, the answer is they're
18:11
Speaker 2: winning here, okay, in this agreement.
18:14
Speaker 1: Now.
18:14
Speaker 2: The agreement has also been defended by President Trump, his administration,
18:18
Speaker 2: Vice President J. D. Vance, and top White House staff
18:22
Speaker 2: as a framework, and they want you to understand that
18:25
Speaker 2: this is, I guess, in essence, like the best deal
18:27
Speaker 2: we could get done really really fast. I still don't
18:30
Speaker 2: think that means it's a good deal or worth signing
18:34
Speaker 2: as it reads right now. I also want to tell
18:37
Speaker 2: you there's a lot of hardcore America First conservatives in
18:40
Speaker 2: the House inscent that I have talked to this afternoon
18:44
Speaker 2: and all day today, who have said the same thing
18:47
Speaker 2: to me over and over and over again. They've all
18:51
Speaker 2: said they can't believe that this is what we have now.
18:56
Speaker 2: Good friend of mine was pretty brave and came out
18:59
Speaker 2: early and has taken an awful lot of heat on
19:03
Speaker 2: what he has said, and that has been Dominich Ben
19:06
Speaker 2: is a Fox News contributor.
19:08
Speaker 1: You see him on Fox a lot.
19:10
Speaker 2: You see him on Brettbear's show, and I'm going to
19:13
Speaker 2: have him on in a moment to explain why he
19:16
Speaker 2: has concerns over this deal. And I think this is
19:19
Speaker 2: one of those grand conversations that is so important because
19:24
Speaker 2: if we don't know what's in the deal and then
19:27
Speaker 2: then then that's a disaster. And we've also been told
19:29
Speaker 2: that there's like certain things in the steel they can't
19:31
Speaker 2: tell us about. That makes no sense to me at all.
19:34
Speaker 2: Putting Qatar's interests ahead of Americans. Sorry, that's not your job.
19:39
Speaker 2: I don't care if you are the Vice president United
19:42
Speaker 2: States of America to put the concerns of Qatar and
19:46
Speaker 2: their privacy in this memory of understanding ahead of the
19:49
Speaker 2: United States citizens who elected you. I just want to
19:52
Speaker 2: I want to say that on the on the record
19:54
Speaker 2: very clearly.
19:55
Speaker 1: Now.
19:57
Speaker 2: Vice President j. D. Vance has talked about the framework.
20:00
Speaker 2: He said that can permanently in hostilities and prevent Iran
20:03
Speaker 2: from becoming a nuclear power.
20:05
Speaker 1: That's good.
20:06
Speaker 2: Some security analysts, by the way, and pro Israel voices
20:10
Speaker 2: I'm one of those, are pointing to several provisions now
20:14
Speaker 2: that we believe give Iran way too much leverage. So
20:18
Speaker 2: let me walk them through these biggest controversies for you
20:20
Speaker 2: so you understand this. Number one is the Lebanon clause
20:25
Speaker 2: and what happens to Israel's position. All right, this is
20:29
Speaker 2: the first major point of controversies involving Lebanon as well,
20:33
Speaker 2: and the agreement in the Memo of understanding basically commits
20:37
Speaker 2: all parties to quote respect Lebane's sovereignty and in military
20:42
Speaker 2: operations on Lebanese territory where they are housing terrorists.
20:46
Speaker 1: Okay.
20:47
Speaker 2: Iran has interpreted this language as requiring Israel and its
20:52
Speaker 2: forces to leave Lebanon. Iranian officials publicly stated that a
20:56
Speaker 2: final agreement requires all of Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon. That
21:01
Speaker 2: means that they can then advocate supports and money and
21:06
Speaker 2: munitions and whatever else to the terrorist proxies that are
21:09
Speaker 2: in Lebanon. That is something we should not agree to
21:13
Speaker 2: in writing ever. All right now, many are now arguing
21:17
Speaker 2: that this is effectively providing political protection for Hesbelah. I'm
21:22
Speaker 2: not in favor of that, the Iranian back militia, which
21:25
Speaker 2: we try to annihilate, and so is Israel. This has
21:29
Speaker 2: been one of Israel's greatest security threats and a massive
21:32
Speaker 2: killer of Jews. So just understand this now. Their argument,
21:36
Speaker 2: by the way, is straightforward. To understand. Israel has literally
21:40
Speaker 2: spent years warning the world that Hesbelah has built not
21:45
Speaker 2: only a massive missile arsenal along its northern border.
21:48
Speaker 1: With Iran support.
21:49
Speaker 2: But they argue that forcing Israel to withdraw from before
21:53
Speaker 2: Hesbelah is fully neutralized would allow Iran's proxy network to
21:57
Speaker 2: not only survive, but then to thrive.
22:00
Speaker 1: All right, that is a problem.
22:02
Speaker 2: Now, let me tell you what supporters of the agreement
22:04
Speaker 2: are going to tell you, so you understand both sides.
22:06
Speaker 1: I think this is really important.
22:08
Speaker 2: Supporters are going to respond that this language is only
22:12
Speaker 2: intended to create a broader cease fire and reduce the
22:16
Speaker 2: chance of a regional war, and not to reward hesplots.
22:20
Speaker 2: They're already saying this on TV, all right. And they
22:23
Speaker 2: also say the exact implementation of security arrangements quote remains
22:28
Speaker 2: subject to further negotiations.
22:29
Speaker 1: Look, it's in writing.
22:31
Speaker 2: This is a bad part of the deal, and that's
22:33
Speaker 2: why I'm telling you about it right now.
22:35
Speaker 1: All right.
22:36
Speaker 2: Number two is the straight of horn moves, all right,
22:38
Speaker 2: the straight of hor Moos clause and I'm going to
22:40
Speaker 2: go through a lot of this would have been Dominich
22:41
Speaker 2: in a minute, because I want you to already said,
22:43
Speaker 2: but this is the one that really concerns me, and
22:46
Speaker 2: I think it should concern you as well. All Right,
22:49
Speaker 2: the Straight of Horor moves is insanely important. Okay, roughly
22:52
Speaker 2: one fifth of the world's all supply moves through this
22:55
Speaker 2: narrow waterway. It should never be controlled by Iran because
22:59
Speaker 2: if it is, it will be weaponized. And everyone knows
23:01
Speaker 2: that during this conflict, we saw it like in real time.
23:06
Speaker 2: Iran disrupted shipping and threatened global energy markets and put
23:09
Speaker 2: out their minds in the water, and we're trying to
23:12
Speaker 2: bomb ships like it's a problem.
23:14
Speaker 1: Now.
23:14
Speaker 2: Early American demands called for a complete reopening under unrestricted
23:19
Speaker 2: international navigation, but the current framework of the deal, based
23:24
Speaker 2: on what we now know, actually provides for a temporary
23:28
Speaker 2: period of toll free passage followed by negotiations involving Iran
23:33
Speaker 2: and Oman over future administration arrangements. Now, this could clearly
23:39
Speaker 2: give Tehran massive leverage over a route that many beliefs
23:43
Speaker 2: should remain entirely free under international norms and international waters
23:48
Speaker 2: and it shouldn't be under the control of a terrorist organization,
23:51
Speaker 2: which is a RAN in the IRGC.
23:54
Speaker 1: That is the problem here.
23:55
Speaker 2: Now, the Trump administration is already pushed back on this,
23:58
Speaker 2: and I want you to understand what they're saying. The
24:01
Speaker 2: Trump administration is arguing that the immediate priority is to
24:04
Speaker 2: reopen global commerce and prevent another energy shock and get
24:09
Speaker 2: oil prices down, which you should be in favor of.
24:11
Speaker 1: All right.
24:12
Speaker 2: Officials also say the agreement requires a RAND to restore
24:15
Speaker 2: quote safe toll free shipping and that future arrangements remain
24:20
Speaker 2: subject to negotiations quote unquote. Now I go back to
24:24
Speaker 2: the core part here. I don't think we should ever
24:27
Speaker 2: trust Iran to be in control of the strait. Let
24:30
Speaker 2: me give you another example of just kind of some
24:32
Speaker 2: of the shock out there. And look, I want to
24:35
Speaker 2: be clear, I think the present's getting bad advice. And
24:38
Speaker 2: that's why I'm doing the show the way I'm doing
24:40
Speaker 2: it today because I want you to understand what I
24:43
Speaker 2: think is so we should be so worried about, cautious about.
24:47
Speaker 2: And even Trey Goudie who went on Fox News Channel.
24:50
Speaker 2: He has a show on Fox's a he's a conservative guy.
24:53
Speaker 2: This is what he said on TV about this earlier.
24:56
Speaker 2: Listen carefully to the words he uses.
24:58
Speaker 4: Sandra, is wonderful to see you a It's a little surprised, honestly.
25:01
Speaker 4: I mean, we literally had our foot on their throat
25:04
Speaker 4: militarily economically. And I read this MoU if you will,
25:09
Speaker 4: I guess about forty eight hours ago, and I didn't
25:12
Speaker 4: believe it. I thought somebody was spoofing me when I
25:15
Speaker 4: saw it, because I see what we're giving up. And
25:19
Speaker 4: then I see this word down blend. And I'm not
25:21
Speaker 4: the smartest guy on the World Center. But if you
25:23
Speaker 4: can downblend, then you can uplend. And how long would
25:27
Speaker 4: it take Iran to upblend? Because Donald Trupe is going
25:29
Speaker 4: to be gone in January twenty twenty nine, but the
25:32
Speaker 4: so called Supreme Leader is not going to be So
25:35
Speaker 4: here's my question for my fellow citizens. Do you really
25:38
Speaker 4: think Iran has abandoned its nuclear ambition? Do you believe them?
25:43
Speaker 4: What do you think they're going to do with the
25:45
Speaker 4: three hundred billion dollars? What are they going to do
25:47
Speaker 4: with the old revenue? You think they're going to build schools?
25:51
Speaker 4: You think they're going to build like they're going to
25:53
Speaker 4: make women's lives better or are they going to continue
25:56
Speaker 4: to target America in Israel. I happen to think.
25:59
Speaker 2: The Trey's right, Donald Trump's going to be gone, and
26:05
Speaker 2: this memo of understanding and this agreement could still be there,
26:08
Speaker 2: and that would allow for Ran to do insane things
26:11
Speaker 2: and they're playing. As he described, the Antitotle will still
26:15
Speaker 2: be there. He is absolutely correct. The Ietol is still
26:17
Speaker 2: going to be there, and this is going to end
26:19
Speaker 2: up being a massive problem, which is the reason why
26:22
Speaker 2: I don't believe we should agree to this deal of
26:24
Speaker 2: the way it's being described.
26:26
Speaker 1: I just don't. I really don't.
26:30
Speaker 2: I think it is truly shocking, okay, to see that
26:38
Speaker 2: this is the best we could do when we had
26:40
Speaker 2: our foot, as Trey put it on their throat in Iran.
26:44
Speaker 2: So let's go into now the big question about money.
26:47
Speaker 2: It's an important question. Iran, based on this memo of understanding,
26:53
Speaker 2: is going to get paid before a final deal has
26:56
Speaker 2: been reached.
26:57
Speaker 1: That is a disaster, all right.
27:00
Speaker 2: This memo includes immediate economic measures just for negotiating, including
27:07
Speaker 2: sanctioned waivers that allows rands, oil exports, and related banking
27:11
Speaker 2: transactions to resume immediately. Then broader economic reconstruction and access
27:17
Speaker 2: immediately to frozen assets that are tied to compliance in
27:20
Speaker 2: future negotiations. But they get access to it very quickly,
27:24
Speaker 2: some of it within six days. This is providing economic
27:29
Speaker 2: relief that we shouldn't be providing, and it's providing it
27:32
Speaker 2: before ran is fully dismantled its nuclear capabilities, and it
27:36
Speaker 2: gives Tehran the resources up front while requiring the United
27:42
Speaker 2: States and our allies to trust future compliance, which you've
27:47
Speaker 2: never been able to trust ran On.
27:51
Speaker 1: Okay, that's just what you need to understand here. Clearly.
27:55
Speaker 2: Now, security analysts are also coming out and saying that
28:00
Speaker 2: this is not the smart move because now Iran, you're
28:03
Speaker 2: giving them everything they want to behave without having to
28:07
Speaker 2: guarantee that they're going to behave. And Jade Vance came
28:13
Speaker 2: out and argue that Iran is quote not simply receiving
28:16
Speaker 2: a cash payment for sign the deal. He stated that
28:19
Speaker 2: quote no funds are being transferred merely as a signing bonus,
28:23
Speaker 2: and that significant financial benefits are contingent upon verified changes,
28:29
Speaker 2: including he says, nuclear compliance and broader behavioral changes. He
28:32
Speaker 2: also said that the proposer in a billion reconstruction effort
28:35
Speaker 2: would not involve American taxpayer money, and when only proceed
28:39
Speaker 2: if Iran fundamentally transforms its conduct. But the problem is
28:43
Speaker 2: they're getting money instantly, they're getting control of the stratiform moves,
28:46
Speaker 2: and they're limiting Israel's ability to protect itself in Lebanon.
28:49
Speaker 1: Why would we give them all that?
28:52
Speaker 2: So here's the question I want you to ask yourself
28:55
Speaker 2: real quick, all right, does this deal represent.
29:00
Speaker 1: What Trump said his goal was.
29:03
Speaker 2: Is this a diplomatic breakthrough that permanently changes Iran's behavior
29:09
Speaker 2: or is this a deal that's kicking the can down
29:12
Speaker 2: the road and giving a ran a massive payday for
29:17
Speaker 2: acting normal for a moment.
29:21
Speaker 1: That is the question that we need to be asking,
29:24
Speaker 1: and it's the.
29:24
Speaker 2: Reason why, by the way, a lot of concertos now
29:27
Speaker 2: are coming out and just being honest about this deal.
29:31
Speaker 2: I don't want to say brave, but look like I
29:33
Speaker 2: don't want to be out there going against the president
29:35
Speaker 2: United States of America. And that's the reason why I
29:37
Speaker 2: also said the way I said earlier, I believe he's
29:40
Speaker 2: just getting bad at Vice.
29:42
Speaker 1: I really do. I think that's really what this is.
29:48
Speaker 2: Don't forget to share this podcast, by the way, with
29:50
Speaker 2: your family and your friends on social media, wherever you
29:53
Speaker 2: can hit that subscribe or auto download
29:55
Speaker 1: Button, and I'll talk to you again tomorrow