The Betting Market for War
00:00 — Introduction 00:09 — The Betting Market for Everything 00:09 — Wrap Up Sources: - Prediction market trader 'Magamyman' made $553,000 on death of Iran's supreme leader (NPR): https://www.npr.org/2026/03/01/nx-s1-5731568/polymarket-trade-iran-supreme-leader-killing - Unpacking claims Polymarket bets on Iran strikes point to insider knowledge (Snopes): https://www.snopes.com/news/2026/03/03/polymarket-bets-iran-strikes/ - Some Alleged Polymarket Insiders Made a Fortune on U.S. Strikes on Iran (Gizmodo)…
The skinny
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