Latest / The Ben Ferguson Podcast / Chaos & Shutdown: What it All Means & What Comes Next

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Chaos & Shutdown: What it All Means & What Comes Next · The Ben Ferguson Podcast

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome.
0:00
Speaker 2: It is Verdict with Senator Ted Cruz, Ben Ferguson with
0:03
Speaker 2: you and Senator You're still.
0:06
Speaker 1: Stuck in Washington, d C as we speak.
0:09
Speaker 2: Usually everybody's going home right now, but it's midnight and
0:13
Speaker 2: you're still there.
0:15
Speaker 3: Well, it is eleven thirty two pm right now, Thursday night.
0:18
Speaker 3: I am usually home in Texas, getting ready to go
0:21
Speaker 3: to bed in my own bed with my wife and kids.
0:23
Speaker 4: I am in Washington, d C. Right now.
0:26
Speaker 3: It looks like there's a very good chance me we
0:28
Speaker 3: may be in Washington, d C. On Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday.
0:32
Speaker 3: We could be in d C on Christmas Day. We
0:35
Speaker 3: are twenty four hours away from a government shutdown. At
0:38
Speaker 3: this point, the path ahead appears very uncertain. We're gonna
0:43
Speaker 3: break that down. We're gonna explain what is going on,
0:45
Speaker 3: what is a continuing resolution, what does this mean, and
0:48
Speaker 3: how does this likely get resolved.
0:49
Speaker 4: We're gonna explain that coming up.
0:52
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2:38
Speaker 2: an interesting conversation center about what's happening in Washington.
2:41
Speaker 1: And look, there's.
2:43
Speaker 2: The politics of it that everybody's obsessed with and pointing fingers.
2:49
Speaker 2: I love doing this show because I think we can
2:51
Speaker 2: look at it a little bit differently. I want people
2:54
Speaker 2: to understand, starting off with what is actually being fought over,
2:58
Speaker 2: and that is a CR. Can you explain in layman's
3:01
Speaker 2: terms what a CR is? Why we keep having these
3:05
Speaker 2: over Christmas time? And is this the normal way that
3:09
Speaker 2: government does work or is this abnormal?
3:12
Speaker 4: Yeah, look, it's a very good question.
3:14
Speaker 3: People are very confused about it. And let me do
3:16
Speaker 3: my best to explain number one, what this fight fight
3:19
Speaker 3: is about. Then and then some basic principles to think
3:22
Speaker 3: about it, because there are a lot of people who
3:24
Speaker 3: are right now yelling, but it's hard to understand what's
3:28
Speaker 3: going on. So for the federal government to operate, Congress
3:33
Speaker 3: has to appropriate funds. Appropriating funds is voting to spend money.
3:38
Speaker 3: Unless Congress appropriates funds, money can't be spent. Now, there
3:43
Speaker 3: are three principal ways money gets appropriated. The first and
3:48
Speaker 3: the best one is Congress actually passing appropriation bills through
3:52
Speaker 3: the regular order, through the process of legislating. They're typically
3:56
Speaker 3: thirteen appropriations bills. For each of them may major cabinet
4:01
Speaker 3: areas and subject matters, and the way it should operate
4:05
Speaker 3: as Congress takes up an appropriation bill, the House passes that,
4:08
Speaker 3: the Senate passes at the President signs it. That's the
4:10
Speaker 3: way it normally works. It almost never works that way anymore,
4:14
Speaker 3: especially when you have what we have now, which is
4:16
Speaker 3: divided government. We have right now a Republican House barely
4:20
Speaker 3: a very very small Republican majority in the House. We
4:24
Speaker 3: have a Democrat Senate and Democrat President. And so as
4:26
Speaker 3: a result, appropriations bills will not pass, and they will
4:30
Speaker 3: not pass because the Republican House and the Democrats Senate
4:33
Speaker 3: fundamentally disagree on what should be in those appropriation bills.
4:37
Speaker 3: There's a second way you fund the government, and that's
4:39
Speaker 3: through what's called an omnibus, or sometimes you call it
4:42
Speaker 3: a minibus. Basically, what that is is a bunch of
4:45
Speaker 3: appropriation bills jammed together. So instead of thirteen separate bills,
4:50
Speaker 3: you can get an omnibus would be all thirteen. A
4:53
Speaker 3: minibus is sometimes say four or five, six of them,
4:57
Speaker 3: but it is a specific appropriation for a portion of
4:59
Speaker 3: government that frequently how things are done, all crammed together. Again,
5:04
Speaker 3: we can't get agreement. Doing it in divided government is
5:07
Speaker 3: very difficult, and I will point out that Joe Biden
5:09
Speaker 3: and the Democrats are providing the zero leadership to do
5:12
Speaker 3: anything other than embracing radical positions that of course Republicans
5:16
Speaker 3: in the House aren't going to agree with. So the
5:18
Speaker 3: third way, and they are really only three, is what's
5:21
Speaker 3: called a continuing resolution. So a continuing resolution typically does
5:25
Speaker 3: not specify how how money will be appropriated. It simply
5:29
Speaker 3: says what we're doing now, let's continue going forward, and
5:33
Speaker 3: a continuing resolution is typically for a set period of time.
5:39
Speaker 3: A continuing resolution is usually abbreviated a CR, and a
5:43
Speaker 3: CR basically said a continued resolution basically says what we're
5:46
Speaker 3: spending today, keep spending tomorrow, and you sometimes will get
5:51
Speaker 3: You can get a long term CR, like you could
5:53
Speaker 3: get say a year long CR that says for the
5:55
Speaker 3: next year, we're just going to spend what we're spending
5:57
Speaker 3: right now. You can get a short term CR. Sometimes
6:00
Speaker 3: crs are short, as short as a day or two
6:02
Speaker 3: or a week or more. Now, why is this fight happening.
6:05
Speaker 3: This fight is happening because at midnight Friday night, funding
6:11
Speaker 3: for the government expires, and that was set in the
6:15
Speaker 3: last funding battle. Congress funded it through midnight Friday night.
6:20
Speaker 3: That means at twelve oh one am on Saturday, funding
6:24
Speaker 3: for the government will expire. Now, if we get to
6:25
Speaker 3: twelve oh one am, and I got to say sitting
6:28
Speaker 3: here right now, that seems like a very likely outcome
6:31
Speaker 3: that we're going to get to twelve oh one without
6:32
Speaker 3: this being resolved, the result will be a quote unquote
6:37
Speaker 3: government shutdown. Now, what does a government shutdown mean? Well,
6:41
Speaker 3: that phrase is overstated because much of government does not
6:45
Speaker 3: shut down. Number One mandatory spending. Mandatory spending is government
6:50
Speaker 3: spending that is written that is automatically spent, that doesn't
6:52
Speaker 3: need to be appropriated, mandatory spending is not affected. What
6:56
Speaker 3: does that mean. It means so security checks will go
6:58
Speaker 3: out regardless. It means Medicare will go out regardless, It
7:01
Speaker 3: means Medicaid will go out regardless. It means anything that
7:04
Speaker 3: is written as mandatory spending happens regardless, because you don't
7:10
Speaker 3: need appropriations. That's just written to automatically be spent. What
7:14
Speaker 3: else does it mean, Well, if you have a government shutdown,
7:18
Speaker 3: it is existing law that even in the case of
7:21
Speaker 3: a shutdown, when Congress has not appropriated funds, essential services continue. So,
7:26
Speaker 3: for example, if at twelve oh one am on Friday,
7:31
Speaker 3: we have a government shutdown, the military is not going
7:34
Speaker 3: to suddenly cease to operate. We have soldiers and sailors
7:37
Speaker 3: and airmen and marines who are deployed in harm's way.
7:41
Speaker 3: The military is the very definition of essential services, so
7:45
Speaker 3: they'll continue to defend this nation. It means that there
7:49
Speaker 3: are a host of positions throughout government that are deemed essential,
7:53
Speaker 3: and by the way, that's decided typically agency by agency.
7:58
Speaker 4: It is up to.
8:00
Speaker 3: Each agency to decide how many, which ones of their
8:04
Speaker 3: employees are essential. At some cabinet departments. You take it
8:08
Speaker 3: to a cabinet department like the Commerce Department. Historically you
8:12
Speaker 3: have seventy percent or more of the employees that are
8:15
Speaker 3: deemed non essential. If you're deemed non essential, when there's
8:17
Speaker 3: a government shutdown, you stay home, you don't go to work,
8:19
Speaker 3: you don't do anything. And by the way, typically all
8:25
Speaker 3: government employees stop being paid. So one of the consequences
8:29
Speaker 3: of a shutdown is if you're a federal government employee,
8:32
Speaker 3: your paycheck doesn't come.
8:33
Speaker 1: Now.
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Speaker 3: Sometimes Congress will make exceptions so for example and pass shutdowns.
8:40
Speaker 3: We have made exceptions with some frequency for active duty military,
8:44
Speaker 3: but that actually takes Congress moving in and legislating and saying,
8:47
Speaker 3: you know what, We're going to pay our soldiers, sailors, airmen,
8:50
Speaker 3: and marines. But if Congress doesn't act, they don't get paid.
8:55
Speaker 3: In the last big shutdown we had when Trump was president,
8:58
Speaker 3: I went to the Senate Flora and fought to pay
9:01
Speaker 3: coast guardsmen. Look, the Coastguard was saving people who were drowning,
9:06
Speaker 3: they were guarding our border, they were working, and they
9:09
Speaker 3: weren't being paid. And the Democrats stood up and objected
9:11
Speaker 3: to paying Coast guardsmen during the shutdown. So the basic
9:16
Speaker 3: principle is, the vast majority of federal government employees don't
9:21
Speaker 3: get paid during a shutdown. And by the way, if
9:25
Speaker 3: you're a young enlisted man, I mean you might need
9:27
Speaker 3: like your paycheck to pay your rent next month, you
9:32
Speaker 3: might need your paycheck to pay your food. Like many
9:34
Speaker 3: of these these government employees are not wealthy and they
9:37
Speaker 3: are living paycheck to paycheck, So having the paycheck stop
9:41
Speaker 3: puts real burdens, particularly on the load to median income
9:45
Speaker 3: federal workers. On top of that, when the shutdown ends,
9:51
Speaker 3: the federal workers all get paid, they get paid back pay.
9:53
Speaker 3: So what we end up doing is having a significant
9:56
Speaker 3: chunk of federal workers not work for a period of time,
10:00
Speaker 3: and then they don't get paid during that period of time,
10:02
Speaker 3: and then after the fact they get paid on the
10:03
Speaker 3: back end. So we waste a bunch of government money.
10:07
Speaker 3: That's what's at stake. Now, how do we think through
10:10
Speaker 3: this fight? What does it mean? I'm going to suggest
10:13
Speaker 3: four key principles that are important. I want to start
10:18
Speaker 3: with one that almost no one talking about this is
10:21
Speaker 3: talking about. But it's a very simple one. Count to eighteen.
10:26
Speaker 3: I want to repeat that Ben, count to eighteen. To
10:31
Speaker 3: eighteen is a majority of the House of Representatives. The
10:33
Speaker 3: House Representatives has four hundred and thirty five representatives. Two
10:36
Speaker 3: hundred eighteen is half of it. Unless you have absences
10:40
Speaker 3: or vacancies. Nothing can pass the House without two hundred
10:44
Speaker 3: and eighteen votes. So we have seen. There have been
10:48
Speaker 3: two different attempts so far by House leadership to pass
10:52
Speaker 3: a CR continuing resolution. The first attempt was a continuing
10:57
Speaker 3: resolution that extended until the middle of March, and it
11:00
Speaker 3: included a variety of different programs. Now, I want you
11:03
Speaker 3: to understand. I want you to imagine for a second, Ben,
11:06
Speaker 3: that you wake up tomorrow morning and your name is
11:10
Speaker 3: Mike Johnson. You're the Speaker of the House. I want
11:12
Speaker 3: you to engage in some simple math. You need to
11:14
Speaker 3: get to eighteen.
11:15
Speaker 2: Okay, if you don't get to two eight in my life,
11:18
Speaker 2: I don't think I want to get to that name
11:20
Speaker 2: in the morning, because I know how stressful that job's
11:22
Speaker 2: got to be.
11:23
Speaker 3: So I want to walk through just the simple reality
11:26
Speaker 3: that Mike is facing.
11:27
Speaker 4: He needs to eighteen.
11:30
Speaker 3: Now, a continuing resolution continues funding the current discussion is
11:35
Speaker 3: through mid March. On top of that, you've got a
11:39
Speaker 3: significant number of House members who are insisting at least
11:42
Speaker 3: two things be included in the continuing Resolution. Number one
11:47
Speaker 3: is one hundred and ten billion dollars in funding for
11:50
Speaker 3: farmers and ranchers and ag that have just been hammered
11:53
Speaker 3: across this country. So if you don't add that money
11:57
Speaker 3: for farmers and ranchers and ags, you lose's dozens of Republicans,
12:02
Speaker 3: you lose a ton of votes if you don't have
12:04
Speaker 3: ag there. So you're sitting there going, Okay, we need
12:07
Speaker 3: to take care of our farmers and ranchers. We need
12:09
Speaker 3: to have that money. Secondly, you've got disaster relief, and
12:13
Speaker 3: in particular two states that have been just hammered by
12:17
Speaker 3: disasters recently, Florida and North Carolina. Now the Florida and
12:21
Speaker 3: North Carolina members are saying, if you do not have
12:23
Speaker 3: disaster relief in this bill, I'm voting no. So here's
12:28
Speaker 3: the challenge. The first version, Mike Johnson sits down, he
12:32
Speaker 3: extends government funding, he puts funding for farmers and ranchers
12:36
Speaker 3: in there, he puts disaster relief in there. Now, there
12:40
Speaker 3: are a significant number of Republicans who is a matter
12:44
Speaker 3: of principles say they will never ever ever vote for
12:46
Speaker 3: continuing resolution. So if you're only looking to Republicans, you
12:52
Speaker 3: can't get to two eighteen because they're a bunch of them.
12:54
Speaker 3: They're going to vote no, no matter what. They're just
12:57
Speaker 3: like no, no, no, I will not vote yes. No.
13:01
Speaker 3: So you're Mike Johnson, you've got to get to get
13:02
Speaker 3: to eighteen. You look at Republicans. There are not two
13:05
Speaker 3: hundred and eighteen Republicans who will vote yes. Your only
13:09
Speaker 3: choice is to get Democrat votes. If you've got to
13:12
Speaker 3: get to to eighteen, where you'd like to start is
13:15
Speaker 3: give me two hunterd eighteen Republicans. There are not I
13:19
Speaker 3: don't believe there are two hundred eighteen Republicans who will
13:21
Speaker 3: vote vote for any CR. That means you must get Democrats. Now, Democrats,
13:28
Speaker 3: let's look at something like relief for farmers and ranchers.
13:32
Speaker 3: Most Democrats today, the Democrats by and large don't care
13:36
Speaker 3: about farmers and ranchers. So the Democrats are like, I'm
13:38
Speaker 3: not going to vote for aid for farmers and ranchers.
13:40
Speaker 3: Why would I do that? And Florida and North Carolina
13:43
Speaker 3: are both Republican states, so Most of the Democrats are like,
13:46
Speaker 3: why would I give disaster relief to Florida and North Carolina.
13:48
Speaker 3: I'm not from there, I'm a liberal New Yorker. Why
13:51
Speaker 3: would I help out Florida? And So what happens is
13:55
Speaker 3: the Democrats say, Okay, if you want my vote, I
14:00
Speaker 3: need X, Y, and Z. Now these are demands made
14:04
Speaker 3: by Democrat members of Congress. So they're bad, they're bad policies,
14:09
Speaker 3: they're terrible. And so the first bill that Mike Johnson
14:14
Speaker 3: rolled out had some elements in it that were really bad. Now,
14:18
Speaker 3: I don't like elements that are bad, But what is
14:23
Speaker 3: Mike Johnson supposed to do? If there were two hundred
14:26
Speaker 3: and eighteen Republican votes there, he would not have to
14:29
Speaker 3: agree to really bad Democrat provisions. There are a bunch
14:33
Speaker 3: of Republicans who are like, hell, no, no matter what,
14:36
Speaker 3: I won't vote for you. So Mike Johnson, on the
14:40
Speaker 3: first version, I think, felt he had no choice but
14:44
Speaker 3: get the Democrat votes to pass it. Now, when he
14:46
Speaker 3: rolled it out, Twitter went crazy and a whole bunch
14:50
Speaker 3: of people criticized it and they said, they're Democrat provisions
14:54
Speaker 3: in here that are terrible. Now, mind you just remember
14:58
Speaker 3: the very simple principal, count to two eighteen. If you
15:01
Speaker 3: can get to two eighteen and a better bill, awesome,
15:04
Speaker 3: And by the way, to eighteen doesn't even get it
15:06
Speaker 3: done because you've also got to get it to pass
15:07
Speaker 3: the Senate, which Chuck Schumer and the Democrats control. But
15:10
Speaker 3: let's just focus on the House. If you can't get
15:14
Speaker 3: to two eighteen, nothing will pass. All right, let me
15:17
Speaker 3: talk about a second principle. I've got four principles that
15:19
Speaker 3: I want to lay out. Number one is count to
15:20
Speaker 3: tow eighteen. And just remember this because almost all of
15:24
Speaker 3: the commentary is ignoring the fact that nothing will pass
15:28
Speaker 3: unless you can get to to eighteen. And by the way,
15:32
Speaker 3: so the first bill, Johnson had a cr through mid March,
15:40
Speaker 3: had far made, had disaster relief, and had a bunch
15:44
Speaker 3: of gives he had to give to Democrats because he
15:46
Speaker 3: had to get Democrat votes to get it to pass.
15:49
Speaker 3: Twitter went crazy, blasted him, you terrible rhino. How could
15:53
Speaker 3: you possibly propose? Democrat asks, Well, the answer would be
15:58
Speaker 3: because he's got to get to eighteen, and so the
16:01
Speaker 3: first one crashed and burned. Then Trump wants to raise
16:06
Speaker 3: the death ceiling. Now, what's the death ceiling. Let's talk
16:09
Speaker 3: about that, because there's sort of two elements in these battles.
16:12
Speaker 3: One is funding the government. The other is the debt ceiling,
16:16
Speaker 3: which is a cap on how much the federal government
16:20
Speaker 3: can borrow. Now, every president hates the death ceiling. When
16:27
Speaker 3: Trump is president, he's got to raise the debt ceiling
16:31
Speaker 3: because if he doesn't raise the death ceiling, we will
16:34
Speaker 3: run into the death ceiling. And if we did not
16:38
Speaker 3: actually raise it, the United States would default on its debt,
16:41
Speaker 3: which would be disastrous for this country. So Trump wants
16:46
Speaker 3: to raise the death ceiling. Now, Trump is also angry
16:49
Speaker 3: with Kevin McCarthy, the former Speaker of the House, because
16:52
Speaker 3: he extended the dead ceiling. The death ceiling is scheduled
16:54
Speaker 3: to expire next summer. I think June or July it remember,
16:57
Speaker 3: but next summer. So so six months into the Trump presidency,
17:01
Speaker 3: the dead ceilings scheduled to hit, and Trump is very
17:05
Speaker 3: focused on He's mad at McCarthy, very mad at McCarthy
17:10
Speaker 3: that six months into his presidency, he is going to
17:12
Speaker 3: hit the deat ceiling because he's got to raise it.
17:15
Speaker 3: And that's true of every president. And so Trump is demanding,
17:18
Speaker 3: he wants as part of this continuing the resolution raising
17:22
Speaker 3: the debt ceiling. So he demanded that. Well, Mike Johnson
17:27
Speaker 3: came back as a second version, and he came back
17:29
Speaker 3: with what was called a skinny cr. So it included
17:35
Speaker 3: funding for the government through mid March. It included farm relief,
17:40
Speaker 3: and it included disaster relief. So those are the asks,
17:42
Speaker 3: principally a republican's. And because Trump demanded it, it suspended
17:49
Speaker 3: the debt ceiling for two years. So it gave two
17:52
Speaker 3: of the four years of the Trump presidency no debt ceiling,
17:54
Speaker 3: which is what Trump is is insisting being this bill.
17:58
Speaker 3: So this second bill was by and large the bill
18:01
Speaker 3: that was being demanded by Republicans. Well, we had a
18:05
Speaker 3: vote tonight. What was the vote result, Ben.
18:09
Speaker 1: It didn't pass.
18:11
Speaker 3: Okay, As I said, rule number one is count to
18:13
Speaker 3: two eighteen. The vote was one hundred and seventy four
18:19
Speaker 3: to two hundred and thirty five. Now I'm going to
18:22
Speaker 3: make a simple observation. One hundred and seventy four is
18:24
Speaker 3: not to eighteen. One hundred and seventy four of the
18:26
Speaker 3: s is two thirty five ofre the nos. The breakdown.
18:31
Speaker 3: Every Democrat but two voted no. Look, the Democrats want
18:36
Speaker 3: Trump to fail, so they're all happy to vote no.
18:39
Speaker 3: There were only two Democrats who voted yes. Now we
18:43
Speaker 3: still had the Republican votes to pass it. Well, what happened.
18:48
Speaker 3: Thirty eight Republicans voted no. You cannot get to to
18:53
Speaker 3: eighteen in this narrow Congress. If thirty eight Republicans vote no,
18:58
Speaker 3: you end up with one hundred and seventy four, which
18:59
Speaker 3: is where we were. So as we're sitting here tonight,
19:03
Speaker 3: I don't know what the hell's going to happen, but
19:07
Speaker 3: on the death sailing. And to be clear, this skinny
19:09
Speaker 3: proposal was almost exactly what President Trump demanded. He put
19:14
Speaker 3: out a statement urging every Republican vote for this now.
19:17
Speaker 3: He was unequivocal the Great Deal. Vote for it now
19:21
Speaker 3: because it had almost entirely what was asked for by
19:25
Speaker 3: Republicans and it had very few of the things asked
19:28
Speaker 3: for by Democrats. And it didn't just fail.
19:30
Speaker 4: It failed.
19:32
Speaker 3: One hundred and seventy four is way way way below
19:35
Speaker 3: two eighteen. And to be clear, it failed because thirty
19:37
Speaker 3: eight Republicans voted no. So what's next. Let me move
19:45
Speaker 3: to the second principle. I told you I got four
19:47
Speaker 3: principles to think through this. Here's the second principle. Funding
19:52
Speaker 3: should be about leverage. Listen, we're living in a time
19:57
Speaker 3: right now. You spent a lot of time on Twitter.
19:59
Speaker 3: I spent alle a lot of time on Twitter. I
20:03
Speaker 3: get that sense. You're frustrated with Washington. Washington's the swamp.
20:06
Speaker 3: You don't like government, just shut it down ra In
20:11
Speaker 3: my view, Now, listen, there are some Republicans. There are
20:15
Speaker 3: swampy Republicans Mitch McConnell are terrified of a government shutdown,
20:18
Speaker 3: who on every battle over government spending, they want to
20:21
Speaker 3: surrender on everything because they think the government shutting down
20:24
Speaker 3: is the end of the universe. That view is wrong.
20:27
Speaker 3: The government shutting down is not the end of the universe. However,
20:33
Speaker 3: I think you should use battles over government funding as
20:37
Speaker 3: leverage to get something. So if you think back to
20:41
Speaker 3: twelve years ago when I was a brand new baby
20:43
Speaker 3: senator and I led a filibuster against Obamacare, and we
20:47
Speaker 3: had a government shutdown, and I was painted by the
20:50
Speaker 3: media as the point of the government shutdown. To be clear,
20:56
Speaker 3: my position was not shut the government down, Raar. My
21:00
Speaker 3: position was we should fund the entirety of the federal government,
21:03
Speaker 3: but don't fund Obamacare, that we should use funding as leverage.
21:07
Speaker 3: And I had a very detailed and laid out plan
21:10
Speaker 3: to get to victory. Now we failed in twenty thirteen
21:13
Speaker 3: with that objective, in significant part because Republican leadership Mitch
21:17
Speaker 3: McConnell and John Bayner waged war against me. They joined
21:21
Speaker 3: with the Democrats and said, nope, we want to fund
21:23
Speaker 3: all of Obamacare.
21:24
Speaker 4: To hell with you.
21:26
Speaker 3: And when you're fighting the Democrats and leadership in your
21:30
Speaker 3: own party, you lose. But I will say to everyone tweeting,
21:36
Speaker 3: shut it down, shut it down, shut it down. I
21:39
Speaker 3: get you're on your phone. That feels good. What do
21:42
Speaker 3: I care shut it down? Well, let me tell you
21:45
Speaker 3: when you have a shutdown.
21:46
Speaker 4: Number one, if you.
21:47
Speaker 3: Have a bunch of soldiers stationed abroad who are not
21:50
Speaker 3: getting paid, who are not able to feed their families,
21:53
Speaker 3: that ain't good. By the way, it is also important
21:58
Speaker 3: to recognize so the last big shutdown we had was
22:00
Speaker 3: when Trump was president. So when Trump's president, if you
22:03
Speaker 3: have a shutdown and you want to navigate through it,
22:06
Speaker 3: and by the way, Chuck Schumer forced the last shutdown
22:09
Speaker 3: when Trump was president. His administration was able to mitigate
22:12
Speaker 3: the harms of the shutdown because they wanted to. If
22:15
Speaker 3: we have a shutdown twenty four hours from now, Joe
22:18
Speaker 3: Biden the Democrats will do everything they can to make
22:21
Speaker 3: it as painful as possible.
22:23
Speaker 4: So it means a.
22:24
Speaker 3: Crap tout of federal workers will not get paid going
22:26
Speaker 3: into Christmas. That doesn't make him thrilled. And by the way,
22:29
Speaker 3: it's not just federal workers that we're not big fans of.
22:32
Speaker 3: It's not bureaucrats that are regulating the hell out of
22:36
Speaker 3: business and destroying jobs. They're among them. But it's also prosecutors.
22:41
Speaker 3: It is also border patrol agents, it is also marines,
22:46
Speaker 3: I mean is it's coast guardsmen. It's a lot of
22:48
Speaker 3: people who are good people doing great work who get
22:51
Speaker 3: their pay cut off. But Biden will also implement the
22:56
Speaker 3: policies in ways. So for example, what will they do.
22:58
Speaker 3: They'll shut down every national park in America. So maybe
23:02
Speaker 3: you and your family over Christmas break, we're planning to
23:05
Speaker 3: go see a national park. Maybe you're planning to go
23:08
Speaker 3: see the Smithsonian. Now Christmas is not a huge time
23:10
Speaker 3: for that, but shutting down the museum, shutting down the
23:15
Speaker 3: national parks, it is one hundred percent Biden will do that,
23:19
Speaker 3: and that is done to inflict maximum pain. Let's say
23:25
Speaker 3: you're taking your family on vacation and you want your
23:28
Speaker 3: passport processed. Well, you know what, Biden's going to shut
23:32
Speaker 3: that down. You're not going to get your passport processed.
23:36
Speaker 3: Every consumer face it hurt.
23:39
Speaker 2: They're saying they want to make it hurt, and they
23:42
Speaker 2: want you to blame Republicans, and they want you to say,
23:45
Speaker 2: this is.
23:45
Speaker 1: What they did, this is their fault, and it's a
23:48
Speaker 1: blame game.
23:49
Speaker 3: It is a blame game, and they want to make
23:50
Speaker 3: it painful, and they want to blame Republicans. So I
23:53
Speaker 3: will just say to everyone, and look, I'm reading Twitter.
23:55
Speaker 3: I'm reading people that I like it, agree with the
23:57
Speaker 3: or just like shut it down, shut it down, shut
23:59
Speaker 3: it down. That I get. There's a lot about government
24:04
Speaker 3: that frustrates the heck out of me. But let me
24:07
Speaker 3: just ask, Okay, what's the endgame. Do you really think
24:11
Speaker 3: if we have a government shutdown for the next month
24:15
Speaker 3: and Trump arrives on January twentieth with the government shutdown
24:19
Speaker 3: for a month, that that helps Trump? Do you really
24:23
Speaker 3: think that helps the incoming administration? By the way, come
24:26
Speaker 3: January twentieth, it stays shut down. You still got to
24:28
Speaker 3: get to two eighteen. There are people around Trump will say, well, no, no, no,
24:33
Speaker 3: everyone will blame the shutdown on Joe Biden. I promise
24:36
Speaker 3: you they won't in significant part because when it's Republicans
24:42
Speaker 3: screaming we want to shut down, it's actually not ridiculous
24:47
Speaker 3: of Democrats to say, well, if the Republicans want to
24:50
Speaker 3: shut down, then it's the Republican shutdown. I mean, that's
24:52
Speaker 3: not an insane thing to say. The media will say it,
24:54
Speaker 3: the Democrats will say it. And when you have Republicans screaming,
25:00
Speaker 3: I want to shut down, that becomes not a.
25:03
Speaker 4: Very difficult narrative to tell.
25:05
Speaker 3: So if you're arguing, who cares about the shutdown, let's
25:09
Speaker 3: shut it down, let me just ask what are you
25:11
Speaker 3: trying to accomplish with that? What's the leverage you're trying
25:14
Speaker 3: to get, and what's the endgame? When does the shut
25:17
Speaker 3: down end? Or do you really think we should never
25:20
Speaker 3: pay our active duty military again? And I don't think
25:23
Speaker 3: there are many people And that's one of the dangers
25:26
Speaker 3: of people just yelling when they don't actually look at well,
25:28
Speaker 3: what does this mean?
25:30
Speaker 4: And let me be clear, I have been.
25:33
Speaker 3: Vigorous in saying we should use funding as leverage, but
25:37
Speaker 3: leverage for an achievable, concrete, discrete outcome. I'm not hearing
25:42
Speaker 3: anyone who's saying shut it down. Shut it down. Now,
25:44
Speaker 3: some people are saying, all right, here's what we should
25:47
Speaker 3: get leverage for. We should get leverage for Trump's demand
25:52
Speaker 3: that we suspend the debt ceiling. And here's the third
25:55
Speaker 3: principle I want to say. There are some people are
25:58
Speaker 3: arguing for eliminating the death ceiling permanently, altogether, just getting
26:02
Speaker 3: rid of the dead ceiling, never again having to worry
26:04
Speaker 3: about it. And by the way, one of the plans
26:05
Speaker 3: that's discussed is, well, the Democrats have always wanted to
26:08
Speaker 3: eliminate the death ceiling, so let's just do that, and
26:11
Speaker 3: that's how we get out of this.
26:12
Speaker 4: I pray that is not the endgame here.
26:16
Speaker 3: Eliminating the debt ceiling would be the single worst step
26:19
Speaker 3: we could possibly take if you care about spending or
26:24
Speaker 3: deficits or debt.
26:26
Speaker 4: Now, why is that?
26:27
Speaker 3: Okay, let's do a little history. Historically, the debt ceiling
26:32
Speaker 3: has been the single greatest leverage Republicans have had to
26:37
Speaker 3: force spending restraint. Now, this has only happened, and it's
26:42
Speaker 3: only worked against the opposing party. So one of the
26:45
Speaker 3: challenges with the death ceiling is when your own party
26:48
Speaker 3: is in power. Trump wants the dead ceiling raised. Every
26:50
Speaker 3: president wants the dead ceiling raised. Republicans, as a general matter,
26:56
Speaker 3: are not willing to exert massive leverage on their own
26:59
Speaker 3: part party's president and force spending restraints. So when Trump
27:03
Speaker 3: was president the first time, the debt ceiling was not
27:06
Speaker 3: leverage against Trump because Republicans didn't want to do that.
27:09
Speaker 4: I understand that.
27:11
Speaker 3: But when Democrats are in the White House, Republicans the
27:15
Speaker 3: debt ceiling is the single most effective lever point that
27:18
Speaker 3: has been used against Democrats to force spending restraints. And
27:23
Speaker 3: I want to point to a couple of examples. Number one,
27:25
Speaker 3: Graham Rudman Hollings. Graham Rudman Hollings, passed decades ago, remains
27:31
Speaker 3: the single most effective spending restraint that has ever been
27:34
Speaker 3: passed into law. Phil Graham, former Senator from Texas, was
27:37
Speaker 3: the lead author. How did that get passed? It got
27:40
Speaker 3: passed because of the debt ceiling. Got passed because Republicans
27:44
Speaker 3: forced it and said we won't raise the debt ceiling
27:46
Speaker 3: unless you pass meaningful structural reform to.
27:50
Speaker 4: Reign in spending. And Graham Hollings.
27:55
Speaker 3: Was in effect for many years and had a very
27:58
Speaker 3: positive effect reigning in the growth of spending. I'll point
28:01
Speaker 3: to a second example twenty ten, the Budget Control Act.
28:05
Speaker 3: Twenty ten, Barack Obama was president and Republicans used the
28:09
Speaker 3: debt ceiling to force Barack Obama to agree to something
28:14
Speaker 3: called the Budget Control Act. The Budget Control Act again
28:18
Speaker 3: significantly constrain the growth of federal spending. It was only
28:24
Speaker 3: through the debt ceiling we got that. Now the argument
28:29
Speaker 3: and by the way, today we the Republican senators, we
28:32
Speaker 3: all had lunch.
28:33
Speaker 1: JD.
28:34
Speaker 3: Vance came to express his views. To the lunch, there
28:39
Speaker 3: were a number of Republicans saying, well, we should just
28:41
Speaker 3: get rid of the debt ceiling now. And I'll tell
28:44
Speaker 3: you I expressed my views. If we get rid of
28:46
Speaker 3: the debt ceiling, it would be utterly disastrous. If you
28:49
Speaker 3: care remotely about government spending, eliminate the debt ceiling would
28:53
Speaker 3: be a massive mistake. And I just put it up.
28:56
Speaker 3: If we get rid of the debt ceiling, there will
28:58
Speaker 3: come another Democrat president. I get the urge to live
29:02
Speaker 3: in the moment of we're in charge.
29:03
Speaker 4: Wuha.
29:04
Speaker 3: But unfortunately, there will come another time when the American
29:09
Speaker 3: people elect a Democrat. And for anyone who has an
29:12
Speaker 3: attention span beyond twelve seconds, you recognize throughout history that
29:16
Speaker 3: politics has been a pendulum and it goes from one
29:19
Speaker 3: party to the other. So we will get another Democrat president.
29:21
Speaker 3: And I told my colleagues today at lunch, I said,
29:23
Speaker 3: all right, you get rid of the death ceiling. Get
29:26
Speaker 3: ready for President Elizabeth Warren. And if you don't like
29:30
Speaker 3: a thirty six trillion dollar debt, get ready for a
29:32
Speaker 3: fifty trillion dollar debt. Because the Democrats, Elizabeth Warren wants
29:38
Speaker 3: to eliminate the death ceiling. AOC wants to eliminate the
29:41
Speaker 3: death ceiling. Chuck Schumer wants to eliminate the debt ceiling
29:44
Speaker 3: because they want to spend us into oblivion. So I
29:47
Speaker 3: will say, one potential way out of this is to
29:51
Speaker 3: cut an absolute deal with the Democrats that gets rid
29:54
Speaker 3: of the debt ceiling. Forever, we will have given away
29:58
Speaker 3: what history has proven. And by the way, I'll go
30:00
Speaker 3: go back. I'll go back to about a decade I
30:03
Speaker 3: don't have the most recent stats, but about a decade ago,
30:06
Speaker 3: it was the case that of the previous fifty one
30:08
Speaker 3: times Congress had raised the debt ceiling, twenty eight of
30:13
Speaker 3: those times that had attached meaningful conditions to the death ceiling.
30:16
Speaker 3: So it's leverage. Remember my principal number two. As you
30:18
Speaker 3: was spending for leverage, this is related on principal number three.
30:22
Speaker 3: The death ceiling is about getting leverage for concessions. Now
30:27
Speaker 3: here's the problem I mentioned to you. There are a
30:30
Speaker 3: bunch of Republicans in the House who say they'll never
30:32
Speaker 3: vote for continued resolution. There are also a bunch of
30:35
Speaker 3: Republicans in the House who say they will never ever
30:37
Speaker 3: ever vote to raise the debt ceiling. I got to
30:40
Speaker 3: tell you, I don't think that makes any sense. I've
30:42
Speaker 3: never said it, and I consider myself very much a
30:45
Speaker 3: fiscal conservative. But forty percent of every dollar the federal
30:50
Speaker 3: government spends is borrowed unless you're prepared to slash the
30:52
Speaker 3: federal government budget by forty percent tomorrow. And by the way,
30:56
Speaker 3: there is literally no serious person on planet Earth who
30:59
Speaker 3: is prepared to do that and is able to do that.
31:01
Speaker 3: Even if you would with a magic wand do that.
31:04
Speaker 3: There's no way to make that happen. Unless you're prepared
31:06
Speaker 3: to do that. The death ceiling will have to be raised.
31:09
Speaker 3: My position has always been I'm willing to vote to
31:13
Speaker 3: raise the death ceiling if we are getting concessions that
31:16
Speaker 3: are raining in the out of control spending that's bankrupting
31:20
Speaker 3: our country. However, in the House there are a bunch
31:24
Speaker 3: of Republicans who simply say, I will never ever ever
31:26
Speaker 3: vote to raise the dead ceiling, no matter what. It
31:29
Speaker 3: doesn't matter what we get. My answer is no, that
31:32
Speaker 3: is a real problem. Let me make one final principle.
31:39
Speaker 3: Mike Johnson, who's the Speaker of the House. There are
31:42
Speaker 3: a bunch of voices on TV, a bunch of voices
31:44
Speaker 3: on talk radio, a bunch of voices on Twitter saying
31:46
Speaker 3: get rid of Mike Johnson, throw them overboard. I'm going
31:49
Speaker 3: to tell you something that I believe is an absolute fact.
31:54
Speaker 3: Mike Johnson is the single most conservative Speaker of the
31:57
Speaker 3: House that will ever be Speaker of the House in
32:00
Speaker 3: our lifetime. He is undoubtedly the most conservative Speaker of
32:05
Speaker 3: the House we have ever had in our lifetime. It's
32:07
Speaker 3: not even close. It's not even arguable and I'm here
32:12
Speaker 3: to tell you listen, Mike Johnson may lose his job
32:14
Speaker 3: over this. He has a very perilous It's a tiny
32:17
Speaker 3: majority in the House. You've got a bunch of House
32:20
Speaker 3: members saying I'm going to vote against him. I will
32:23
Speaker 3: tell you this, If Mike Johnson has toppled a Speaker
32:25
Speaker 3: of the House, and he might be Kevin McCarthy was
32:27
Speaker 3: Mike Johnson is orders of magnitude more conservative than Kevin McCarthy.
32:32
Speaker 3: It's not even close. If Mike Johnson is toppled as
32:37
Speaker 3: Speaker of the House, we will end up with a
32:40
Speaker 3: Speaker of the House who is much much more liberal
32:45
Speaker 3: than Mike Johnson. I think that is indisputable. I know
32:50
Speaker 3: Mike Well. He's a good man. He's a decent man.
32:53
Speaker 3: He's a strong Christian, he is a man of humility.
32:56
Speaker 3: And everyone on Twitter is saying, but he gave the
32:59
Speaker 3: Democrats concessions. I want to go back to the first principle.
33:04
Speaker 3: I said, count to two eighteen. If Mike Johnson could
33:11
Speaker 3: draft a bill that makes it out of the House
33:14
Speaker 3: with two hundred and eighteen Republicans, he would I don't
33:18
Speaker 3: believe that is possible. There's certainly nothing to indicate its possible.
33:22
Speaker 4: Right now.
33:24
Speaker 3: If you cannot get to too eighteen with Republicans because
33:28
Speaker 3: a bunch of Republicans say I will not vote for
33:30
Speaker 3: anything you propose no matter what, then Mike Johnson is
33:35
Speaker 3: forced to get Democrat votes. To get Democrat votes, he
33:39
Speaker 3: must give Democrats things they want. And so I don't
33:45
Speaker 3: know what will happen. I think there's a reasonable chance
33:48
Speaker 3: somehow out of this we get some very short term
33:53
Speaker 3: cr a week or two or three, and then in
33:57
Speaker 3: mid January we're back in the middle of this mess.
34:00
Speaker 3: And that's possible. I'll tell you in the Senate, we're
34:01
Speaker 3: all sitting there. We have no idea what's going to happen.
34:05
Speaker 3: I got to tell you I feel for Mike Johnson.
34:07
Speaker 3: I think he is trying with all his might.
34:10
Speaker 1: And.
34:12
Speaker 3: I would just encourage you to focus on listen. I
34:14
Speaker 3: think we need people to be serious about changing the
34:19
Speaker 3: direction of the battleship of government, and to do so,
34:26
Speaker 3: you actually need a strategy that can get the votes
34:30
Speaker 3: to prevail. If you can't get the votes, it's easy
34:35
Speaker 3: to tweet about it. I mean that's from the cheap
34:38
Speaker 3: seats thirty eight Republicans voted No. One hundred and seventy
34:44
Speaker 3: four is not to eighteen, and so I don't know
34:48
Speaker 3: what the result is here. I think it is chaotic.
34:52
Speaker 3: We will get through this one way or another. But
34:56
Speaker 3: the fundamental structural dynamics, and it's one of the things
35:00
Speaker 3: bok Going forward into the next year. I'm really optimistic
35:02
Speaker 3: about the Trump presidency. I'm really optimistic about a Republican
35:06
Speaker 3: Senate in the House. But I'll tell you the Senate's
35:09
Speaker 3: going to be a lot easier. We've got fifty three
35:11
Speaker 3: Republicans coming in next year. By the way, we still
35:13
Speaker 3: have a Democrat Senate today, so I haven't even this
35:16
Speaker 3: whole discussion has ignored the fact that you've got to
35:17
Speaker 3: get Chuck Schumer and the Democrats to agree with whatever
35:19
Speaker 3: you do, which is even harder. But next year we'll
35:23
Speaker 3: have fifty three Republicans in the Senate. Fifty three is
35:26
Speaker 3: a big enough majority that we can lose three votes
35:28
Speaker 3: and still get things done. So I think the Senate
35:30
Speaker 3: will be able to pass pretty good legislation, not fantastic,
35:35
Speaker 3: not wonderful, but surprisingly good. The House worries me enormously
35:41
Speaker 3: next year because the majority is so excruciatingly small that
35:47
Speaker 3: if you lose a handful of votes, you cannot get
35:51
Speaker 3: to two eighteen. And so I think Mike Johnson is
35:55
Speaker 3: trying to work miracles right now. But the single heart
36:00
Speaker 3: artist challenge of the next two years in terms of
36:02
Speaker 3: passing good legislation is going to be getting to two
36:05
Speaker 3: eighteen in the House, and I don't know what the
36:07
Speaker 3: answer is to that.
36:09
Speaker 2: I will say this, I really really hope that people
36:12
Speaker 2: that are listening to this listen to what you had
36:15
Speaker 2: to say, and they understand that we do this show
36:20
Speaker 2: not to just go out there as you described it
36:22
Speaker 2: and throw things out there from the cheap seats without
36:26
Speaker 2: doing the math. And I think most people listen to
36:29
Speaker 2: show want to know what's really happening, and I hope
36:32
Speaker 2: that this gives them at least a map to understand
36:35
Speaker 2: the reality of a situation instead of just gaining Twitter followers,
36:40
Speaker 2: because you take a position knowing that people are going
36:42
Speaker 2: to retweet it and knowing that people are going to
36:45
Speaker 2: like it in general, and then you're going to build
36:48
Speaker 2: your populator, because there's a lot of people that are
36:50
Speaker 2: doing that right now. But like you said, the number
36:53
Speaker 2: comes down to the number and two eighteen is the number,
36:56
Speaker 2: and we're nowhere close to that.
36:58
Speaker 1: Right now.
36:58
Speaker 2: I want to take a moment to talk about something
37:00
Speaker 2: that's incredibly important, and that is this, Do you have
37:04
Speaker 2: a firearm?
37:05
Speaker 1: Do you carry a firearm? Well?
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37:11
Speaker 2: I asked that question because I know exactly what happens
37:14
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37:16
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37:20
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37:22
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Speaker 2: Hit that subscribe out download button uh and on those
39:17
Speaker 2: in between days, grab my podcast to Ben ferguson Podcasts.
39:20
Speaker 2: I'll keep you updated, and when we get a deal done,
39:22
Speaker 2: I promise you will be here for you. We'll explain it.
39:25
Speaker 2: If we don't get a deal done. Right now there's
39:27
Speaker 2: a government shutdown. We'll explain that as well, even in
39:30
Speaker 2: more detail, and how we got to where that point is.
39:33
Speaker 2: But the center, I will see you back here in
39:34
Speaker 2: a couple of days