Latest / Logosofia no Dia a Dia
Why Skin in the Game Beats Silicon in Forecasting
Prediction markets, expert elicitation, and AI wargames all claim to predict the Iran-Israel ceasefire. This episode examines why financial incentives often outperform pure simulation, and how to triangulate signals when the world is on fire. Episode 2145 — myweirdprompts.com/n/2145 (permanent short link: myweirdprompts.com/852160)
The skinny
The skinny isn't ready yet — notes appear once the transcript is processed.