Latest / The Ben Ferguson Podcast / Trump's Tariff Tango-The Art of the Deal
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: The art of the deal.
- 0:02Speaker 2: That's the best way you can describe what is happening
- 0:05Speaker 2: right now is Donald Trump has announced tariffs that are
- 0:08Speaker 2: going to be paused for nations who aren't retaliating. What
- 0:12Speaker 2: happened to China. China's raid has been cranked up to
- 0:15Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty five percent, clearly making a statement
- 0:20Speaker 2: that we want to work with everyone but China, who
- 0:23Speaker 2: is retaliating against the US. And what happened on the
- 0:26Speaker 2: stock market after the announcement, it soared immediately. It is
- 0:30Speaker 2: the world united against the Chinese Communist Party if you
- 0:35Speaker 2: want to talk about it from a political aspect. Now,
- 0:38Speaker 2: when the announcement came through, this is what it sounded
- 0:41Speaker 2: like on Fox News.
- 0:43Speaker 1: All right, Fox News Alert.
- 0:46Speaker 3: Moving markets right now is a brand new truth social
- 0:49Speaker 3: out from President Trump. The now is surging now at
- 0:52Speaker 3: fifteen hundred points on this President Trump has just put
- 0:56Speaker 3: out a true social saying based on the lack of
- 0:58Speaker 3: respect that China has shown to the world's markets. I
- 1:01Speaker 3: am hereby raising the tariff charge to China by the
- 1:04Speaker 3: US to one hundred and twenty five percent effective immediately.
- 1:09Speaker 3: At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will
- 1:12Speaker 3: realize that the days of ripping off the USA and
- 1:14Speaker 3: other countries is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and
- 1:19Speaker 3: based on the fact that more than seventy five countries
- 1:21Speaker 3: have called reps of the United States, including the Department's Commerce, Treasury,
- 1:26Speaker 3: and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects
- 1:28Speaker 3: being discussed relative to trade, trade barriers, tariffs, currency manipulation,
- 1:33Speaker 3: and non monetary terraffs, and that these countries have not,
- 1:37Speaker 3: at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape or
- 1:42Speaker 3: form against the US. And here's the big news, grabbing
- 1:45Speaker 3: the headlines. I've authorized a ninety day pause capital letters
- 1:50Speaker 3: and a substantially lowered reciprocal tariff during this period of
- 1:55Speaker 3: ten percent, also effective Immediately, he finishes with, thank you
- 2:00Speaker 3: for your attention on this matter. That's a new true
- 2:03Speaker 3: social john out from the President moments ago. The markets
- 2:06Speaker 3: obviously reacting to that, well.
- 2:09Speaker 4: That ought to put a lot of pressure on China,
- 2:11Speaker 4: I would think. And the EU, which had just authorized
- 2:15Speaker 4: petitive tariffs on the United States based on the reciprocal
- 2:19Speaker 4: tariffs that the President announced against the EU. We'll see
- 2:22Speaker 4: what Canada has to say as well, because they took
- 2:24Speaker 4: retaliatory steps, so you've got, I mean out of There
- 2:28Speaker 4: was that list in the New York Times the other day.
- 2:31Speaker 4: It was of twenty countries, and of those twenty countries,
- 2:34Speaker 4: three one group of countries the EU was thinking about retaliation.
- 2:38Speaker 4: China was retaliating, Canada was retaliating the other seventeen.
- 2:42Speaker 1: And I know that there's a lot more than just twenty.
- 2:44Speaker 4: But the other seventeen were either offering concessions or were
- 2:48Speaker 4: entering into negotiations. So the President is clearly reacting to
- 2:52Speaker 4: these countries that want to play ball and want to
- 2:54Speaker 4: talk about evening the playing field. But for China and
- 2:58Speaker 4: Canada and potentially the EU, and I know the EU
- 3:00Speaker 4: hasn't yet pulled the trigger, they've just authorized it, they're
- 3:04Speaker 4: going to find themselves at a very difficult place. Now.
- 3:06Speaker 4: All these other countries, and there could be seventy or
- 3:09Speaker 4: more of them, are going to have a ninety day
- 3:11Speaker 4: pause on reciprocal tariffs. In meantime, China's got these one
- 3:14Speaker 4: hundred and four percent tariffs against it, Canada is going
- 3:17Speaker 4: to have tariffs against it, and the EU, if it
- 3:19Speaker 4: goes ahead and pulls the trigger, will have punitive tariffs
- 3:22Speaker 4: against it as well. So I'm really interested to see
- 3:25Speaker 4: what the EU does in the hours ahead. It may
- 3:27Speaker 4: pull back.
- 3:28Speaker 1: This was the initial reaction. As this was happening.
- 3:31Speaker 2: We were watching the Nasdaq skyrocket because so many people
- 3:36Speaker 2: were excited about what the President had just done. So
- 3:39Speaker 2: let me break this down for you another way. Donald
- 3:42Speaker 2: Trump is coming out and he's saying, if you were
- 3:45Speaker 2: a good partner, if you were not retaliating, you will
- 3:49Speaker 2: get a better deal. If you were first the table
- 3:52Speaker 2: like I promised, you will get a better deal.
- 3:54Speaker 1: And Wall streets surging.
- 3:56Speaker 2: On Wednesday after the blowout, tenured Treasury auction and helped
- 4:00Speaker 2: calm fears of a financial crisis. Delivering a sharp rebuke
- 4:04Speaker 2: to doomsayers who predicted foreign investors with free American assets
- 4:10Speaker 2: in protest of Donald Trump's trade agenda. All of that
- 4:13Speaker 2: line from the media around the world and in this
- 4:16Speaker 2: country and from the Democratic Party, well, that's all crap.
- 4:20Speaker 2: Now President Trump announcing that pause in the tar hikes
- 4:24Speaker 2: on many of these countries. The Dow at one point
- 4:26Speaker 2: was up about six percent, SMP five hundred up seven
- 4:30Speaker 2: and a half percent, and the Nasdaq store soared up
- 4:34Speaker 2: eight point nine percent. Capping a dramatic rebound from a
- 4:38Speaker 2: week of steep losses triggered by spiking bond yields and
- 4:43Speaker 2: escalating global tariffs. Now, the President knew that this was
- 4:46Speaker 2: going to be a tough negotiation, and that's the reason
- 4:48Speaker 2: why he dug in the spark a remarkably strong thirty
- 4:53Speaker 2: nine billion dollar auction of ten year Treasury notes. The
- 4:58Speaker 2: bond sold it a yel of four point four to
- 5:01Speaker 2: three five percent, also lower than expected, with a significant
- 5:05Speaker 2: stop through, a sign that investors were eager to buy
- 5:09Speaker 2: even below prevailing market rates. Foreign buyers, classified as indirect bidders,
- 5:15Speaker 2: scooped up a whopping eighty eight percent of their allocation,
- 5:20Speaker 2: far exceeding historical norms. Analysis characterized the auction as quote
- 5:26Speaker 2: extremely strong, very strong, and unprecedented, depending on who you
- 5:31Speaker 2: talk to. Now, at the same time this was all
- 5:34Speaker 2: going on, Donald Trump said on social media that he
- 5:37Speaker 2: would pause the tariff hikes for ninety days on countries
- 5:40Speaker 2: that were not retaliating against US tariff's announced last week.
- 5:44Speaker 2: The ten percent baseline tariff, he said, will remain for days.
- 5:48Speaker 2: Wall Street had been gripped by panic, especially from the
- 5:52Speaker 2: media and the left, that Trump's tariff offensive would spark
- 5:55Speaker 2: an American sellout or a sell America route, with foreign creditors,
- 6:00Speaker 2: especially China and Japan, dumping treasuries. Yields on the ten
- 6:05Speaker 2: years surge more than sixty basis points over four days,
- 6:10Speaker 2: the biggest move since the financial crisis back in two
- 6:13Speaker 2: thousand and eight. Talk of a liquidity crunch and emergency
- 6:17Speaker 2: fed intervention. We're even dominating the doomsdayers and their headlines
- 6:22Speaker 2: in propaganda. Well, the Treasury Secretary Scott descent urged calm, saying, quote,
- 6:28Speaker 2: there are some very large leverage players who are experiencing losses.
- 6:33Speaker 2: They are having to deleverage. I believe there's nothing systemic
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- 8:35Speaker 2: The auction also vindicated that view demand was broad and deep,
- 8:40Speaker 2: undercutting claims that foreign buyers were staging a boycott of
- 8:44Speaker 2: the US Treasury. Prices also rose sharply after the results,
- 8:49Speaker 2: and yields fell back from crisis levels. Stocks then followed suit,
- 8:54Speaker 2: surging across the board as investors reassessed the risk outlook now.
- 8:59Speaker 2: The turnaround came just one day after a disappointing three
- 9:04Speaker 2: year auction had amplified fears of collapsing demand.
- 9:08Speaker 1: Again that's how the media put it.
- 9:10Speaker 2: Analysts then started warning of a potential demand strike driven
- 9:15Speaker 2: by Trump's tariffs, high inflation.
- 9:17Speaker 1: And rising deficits.
- 9:19Speaker 2: Some even speculated that the FED might have to intervene
- 9:22Speaker 2: to stabilize the markets with what they were trying to
- 9:25Speaker 2: describe as a quote bailout. Instead, investors showed up in
- 9:30Speaker 2: record number with record force, reaffirming confidence in US debt
- 9:36Speaker 2: and sending a message at America's capital markets remained the
- 9:39Speaker 2: most trusted in the world. Even amid a global trade realignment,
- 9:44Speaker 2: people wanted their money in America. The bond market now
- 9:48Speaker 2: turns its attention to Thursday's thirty year auction. But after
- 9:52Speaker 2: what we're seeing right now, Wall Street's mood has clearly
- 9:56Speaker 2: shifted from panic to almost overwhelming common confidence. Now China,
- 10:01Speaker 2: by the way, is striking back at Trump. They are saying,
- 10:05Speaker 2: let's go to tariff wars if you want to.
- 10:08Speaker 1: We're not backing down.
- 10:10Speaker 2: This is also isolating China, which is part of the
- 10:13Speaker 2: big plan by Donald Trump. China strikes back at Trump
- 10:17Speaker 2: with immediate eighty four percent tariffs on US goods. They're
- 10:21Speaker 2: slamping that eighty four percent tariff on US goods from
- 10:24Speaker 2: Thursday on ramping the impost. Beijing hurried their move to
- 10:30Speaker 2: just the latest debacle in their international trade war, sparked
- 10:33Speaker 2: by President Donald Trump. This is their words, and they said,
- 10:36Speaker 2: we had no choice but to stand up for China. Well,
- 10:40Speaker 2: that's not even going over well with a guy by
- 10:42Speaker 2: the name of Kevin O'Leary, you know him from Shark Tank,
- 10:45Speaker 2: is mister wonderful.
- 10:47Speaker 1: Here's what he said on CNN.
- 10:49Speaker 5: One hundred and four percent tariffs in China are not enough.
- 10:52Speaker 5: I'm advocating four hundred percent. I do business in China.
- 10:56Speaker 5: They don't play by the rules. They've been in the
- 10:58Speaker 5: whil for decades. They have never abided by any of
- 11:01Speaker 5: the rules they agreed to when they came in for decades.
- 11:04Speaker 5: They cheat, they steal, they steal ip I can't litigate
- 11:07Speaker 5: in their courts. They take product, technology, they steal it,
- 11:12Speaker 5: they manufacture it and sell it back. Here never has
- 11:16Speaker 5: an administrator. I want Chia on an airplane to Washington
- 11:22Speaker 5: to level the playing field. This is not about tariffs anymore.
- 11:26Speaker 5: Nobody has taken on China yet, not the Europeans, no administration.
- 11:31Speaker 1: For decades.
- 11:32Speaker 5: As someone who actually does business there, I've had enough.
- 11:35Speaker 5: I speak for millions of Americans who have ip that
- 11:39Speaker 5: have been stolen by the Chinese. I have nothing against
- 11:43Speaker 5: the Chinese people. They brought great literacy, art, and tech
- 11:48Speaker 5: to the world. The government cheats and steals, and finally
- 11:53Speaker 5: an administration. You may not like Trump, you may not
- 11:56Speaker 5: like his style or his rhetoric. Finally an administration that
- 12:00Speaker 5: puts up and says enough four hundred percent tariffs. Tomorrow morning,
- 12:07Speaker 5: he'll tell you why she can only stay the supreme
- 12:09Speaker 5: leader if people are employed. If we wipe out any
- 12:14Speaker 5: business there. Because we are still thirty nine percent of
- 12:17Speaker 5: all consumables on Earth and twenty five percent of the
- 12:20Speaker 5: world's GDP, America is the number one economy on Earth
- 12:24Speaker 5: with all the cards. We will not have that forever.
- 12:26Speaker 5: It's time to squeeze Chinese heads into the wall.
- 12:30Speaker 1: Now, well, hold on.
- 12:32Speaker 6: I hear you, But hold on. If we're talking about people,
- 12:36Speaker 6: the average consumer, not necessarily the head honchos of businesses
- 12:40Speaker 6: all across the globe. Can they withstand the pressure of
- 12:44Speaker 6: that sort of tax on the good land?
- 12:47Speaker 1: There will be.
- 12:48Speaker 6: But yeah, but what's your timeline compared to You don't
- 12:50Speaker 6: know the average Americans timeline, what they can actually survive.
- 12:53Speaker 1: There's people right now.
- 12:54Speaker 5: Who can serve one hundred percent Tomorrow morning, cheese on
- 12:57Speaker 5: an airplane to Washington to cut a deal.
- 12:59Speaker 2: You go go back to what O'Leary says here, and
- 13:02Speaker 2: he says, number one, this is not about tariffs anymore.
- 13:06Speaker 2: Nobody has taken on China yet, not the Europeans, no
- 13:10Speaker 2: administration for decades, and someone who actually does business there,
- 13:14Speaker 2: I've had enough.
- 13:15Speaker 1: Like he's in business in China.
- 13:17Speaker 2: O'Leary says, he said, then the government referring.
- 13:20Speaker 1: To China cheats and steals.
- 13:22Speaker 2: And finally, you may not like Trump, you may not
- 13:25Speaker 2: like his style, you may not like his rhetoric. Finally,
- 13:29Speaker 2: you have a US administration that puts up and says enough.
- 13:34Speaker 2: He's also absolutely right about the bigger, broader play here
- 13:39Speaker 2: that Donald Trump is clearly trying to do with China.
- 13:41Speaker 1: He says, he can only stay the Supreme leader.
- 13:43Speaker 2: If people are employed, if we wiped out any business there,
- 13:47Speaker 2: because we are still thirty nine percent of all consumables
- 13:51Speaker 2: on Earth. America is the number one economy on Earth
- 13:54Speaker 2: with all the cards, we will not have that forever.
- 13:58Speaker 2: So as he said, it's time to squeeze Chinese heads
- 14:01Speaker 2: into the wall. That is exactly, by the way, what
- 14:04Speaker 2: Donald Trump understands as well. Now the left in the media,
- 14:07Speaker 2: they can't stand the fact that a business guy like
- 14:11Speaker 2: O'Leary is saying this because it basically takes their arguments
- 14:16Speaker 2: away that he's reckless, that he's going to destroy the economy,
- 14:20Speaker 2: that he's going to start World War three, that we're
- 14:22Speaker 2: going to get punished to the American people, we're going
- 14:24Speaker 2: to suffer right, all of these things. It takes it
- 14:28Speaker 2: all off the table. Now, I go back to why
- 14:31Speaker 2: Donald Trump is doing this. He sees China as a
- 14:35Speaker 2: national security threat. More than anything else, he sees China
- 14:44Speaker 2: as a national security threat. And so what he's trying
- 14:49Speaker 2: to do is he's trying to isolate China. He's trying
- 14:53Speaker 2: to make sure that China is on an island by itself,
- 14:58Speaker 2: and everyone else under understands that America is in fact.
- 15:02Speaker 1: On your side.
- 15:06Speaker 2: I also think you got to go back to another
- 15:09Speaker 2: point here, and I want to play this for you
- 15:11Speaker 2: because I think it's an important point. The White House
- 15:14Speaker 2: has said from the very beginning, we're gonna do deals
- 15:17Speaker 2: with good actors, and we're gonna hold those that refuse
- 15:19Speaker 2: to be good actors.
- 15:21Speaker 1: What are we gonna do. We're gonna hold them to account.
- 15:25Speaker 2: Listen to Secretary Bescent at the White House walking out
- 15:28Speaker 2: talking about all this, and when he walked out there,
- 15:31Speaker 2: the Dow was up twenty one hundred points or five
- 15:35Speaker 2: point six seven percent. Here is what Bissett said about
- 15:39Speaker 2: these seventy five countries. It's the Treasury secretary who want
- 15:43Speaker 2: to negotiate with America.
- 15:45Speaker 7: As I said, We've given ninety days, and the only
- 15:49Speaker 7: certainty we can provide is that the US is going
- 15:52Speaker 7: to negotiate in good faith, and we assume that our
- 15:55Speaker 7: allies will too. And so in terms of certainty, we
- 16:00Speaker 7: will see what China does. But what I am certain of,
- 16:03Speaker 7: what I'm certain of is that what China is doing
- 16:07Speaker 7: will affect their economy much more than a will ours,
- 16:10Speaker 7: because they have an export driven flood the world with
- 16:15Speaker 7: cheap export models. And the rest of the world now
- 16:19Speaker 7: understands because when we put up our tear pool, those
- 16:23Speaker 7: exports were already flowing to the rest of the G
- 16:26Speaker 7: seven and to the global ceuth And this is January
- 16:29Speaker 7: where we.
- 16:29Speaker 5: Was just silvery how much of this decision was driven
- 16:32Speaker 5: by the bond market creatoring overnight what case happening block China's.
- 16:37Speaker 1: Selling their bond.
- 16:39Speaker 7: I am nothing that says that, and we actually had
- 16:41Speaker 7: quite a good tenure auction today. And all this was again,
- 16:45Speaker 7: this was driven by the President's strategy. He and I
- 16:49Speaker 7: had a long talk on Sunday, and this was his
- 16:52Speaker 7: strategy all along, and that you know, you might even
- 16:56Speaker 7: say that he go to China into a bad physician.
- 17:01Speaker 7: They responded, they have shown themselves to the world to
- 17:05Speaker 7: be the bad actors, and we are willing to cooperate
- 17:09Speaker 7: with our allies and with our trading partners who did
- 17:13Speaker 7: not retaliate. It wasn't a hard message. Don't retaliate, things
- 17:17Speaker 7: will turn not well.
- 17:18Speaker 1: It wasn't a hard message.
- 17:20Speaker 2: Don't retaliate right and things will end up well for you.
- 17:26Speaker 2: The countries that got that right are the ones that
- 17:29Speaker 2: are happy right now because of this pause, and the
- 17:33Speaker 2: countries that got it wrong, China specifically, they're now being
- 17:38Speaker 2: isolated and they're also being shown for what they actually
- 17:42Speaker 2: are now.
- 17:42Speaker 1: The media does not want you to understand that.
- 17:44Speaker 2: Okay, like the media does not want you to understand
- 17:49Speaker 2: just how big of the deal today is. And the
- 17:53Speaker 2: fact that Wall Street's announcing it this way are reacting,
- 17:56Speaker 2: I should say this way to the announcement is truly incredible.
- 18:00Speaker 2: I also love how many people have just gotten it wrong.
- 18:04Speaker 2: John Bolton, who's an anti Trump guy, on CNN talking
- 18:08Speaker 2: about China, he said on the tariffs that this is
- 18:11Speaker 2: quote economic illiteracy, really economic illiteracy.
- 18:17Speaker 1: Well, then explain what just happened.
- 18:20Speaker 2: And this is the reason why I don't trust these
- 18:22Speaker 2: neo con warmongers like John Bolton.
- 18:25Speaker 8: China's embassy in Washington released a statement, it urges the
- 18:28Speaker 8: White House to quote immediately correct its wrongdoings end quote,
- 18:31Speaker 8: warning that China's response, if American tariffs stay in place,
- 18:34Speaker 8: will quote continue to the end. Perspectively, now from former
- 18:38Speaker 8: you and investor John Bolton, who served as National security
- 18:40Speaker 8: advisor in the first Trump administration, in Richard quest seen
- 18:43Speaker 8: in Business Editor at Large and anchor, Quest means business. So,
- 18:46Speaker 8: investor Bolton, I know you're not economists, but just from
- 18:48Speaker 8: a strategic perspective, do you think China is going to
- 18:51Speaker 8: blink and try to cut a deal with the White House?
- 18:53Speaker 9: It certainly doesn't look like it, But what Trump is
- 18:56Speaker 9: doing is a huge opportunity for China.
- 18:58Speaker 1: Worldwide.
- 19:00Speaker 9: Tariffs are a form of economic illiteracy. Trump has no
- 19:04Speaker 9: idea really what he's talking about. He doesn't understand how
- 19:08Speaker 9: tariffs works. He has said as recently as a few
- 19:11Speaker 9: days ago, he'd used trade surpluses and deficits as like
- 19:15Speaker 9: a profit and loss statement, which they certainly are not.
- 19:19Speaker 9: So what he's doing has put us in a very
- 19:21Speaker 9: vulnerable position, and probably in the worst position possible to
- 19:27Speaker 9: go after the real country problem in the international trading system,
- 19:31Speaker 9: which is China, instead of taking on the country that's
- 19:35Speaker 9: stolen our intellectual property for decades, among other things, by
- 19:38Speaker 9: gathering our allies together, all of whom also suffer from
- 19:42Speaker 9: China's intellectual property theft and engaging in concerted action. We're
- 19:48Speaker 9: at war with our largest trading partners while we're about
- 19:51Speaker 9: to go to war with China as well. It simply
- 19:53Speaker 9: makes no sense. And it's just sad and depressing that
- 19:57Speaker 9: more Republicans haven't stood up and said that this is illiteracy.
- 20:01Speaker 1: It's he illiteracy. I tell you, I gotta say.
- 20:04Speaker 2: I love that these guys like John Bolton look like
- 20:07Speaker 2: such idiots right now, and we need to expose them
- 20:09Speaker 2: when they are because they hate Donald Trump so much
- 20:12Speaker 2: they can't understand even when he's winning, they should be
- 20:15Speaker 2: cheering for it. That's how much Trump derangement syndrome has
- 20:18Speaker 2: set in on these guys like John Bolton. He's angry,
- 20:20Speaker 2: he's not in this White House. He's angry. He's not
- 20:23Speaker 2: in the know. He's angry, he's not in the room.
- 20:26Speaker 2: And then he goes out on TV and says things
- 20:28Speaker 2: like this, when in fact, what he said is not
- 20:30Speaker 2: happening is literally exactly what just happened. We have allies now,
- 20:35Speaker 2: we have people talking, and we have an isolation of China.
- 20:39Speaker 2: So when these when these neo cons talk, laugh in
- 20:42Speaker 2: their face, do.
- 20:44Speaker 1: Me a favor.
- 20:45Speaker 2: Make sure you share this podcast with your family, your friends,
- 20:48Speaker 2: put it up on social media wherever you are on
- 20:50Speaker 2: social media, and I will see you back here tomorrow