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Testing Premises Before They Fail
What if the biggest flaw in your national security analysis isn't the data, but the premise you started with? This episode explores the rigorous methods — from the CIA's Analysis of Competing Hypotheses to IQT Labs' Snowglobe framework — for systematically stress-testing assumptions before they shape decisions. We trace the lineage from Richards Heuer's cognitive bias research to modern LLM-powered red teaming, and examine how tools like Monte Carlo simulations and premortems force analysts to confront what they'd rather ignore. The surprising finding? These methods are most valuable not when…
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