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Election Day Eve: Where Things Stand & What the Stakes Are for America · The Ben Ferguson Podcast

0:01
Speaker 1: I can't believe I'm getting to say this, center, but
0:04
Speaker 1: we are right there, one day before the presidential election.
0:11
Speaker 1: Welcome to Verdict with Ted Cruz, Ben Ferguson with you.
0:15
Speaker 1: It seems like we've been talking about this forever, and
0:17
Speaker 1: yet we are finally at the doorstep of finding out
0:21
Speaker 1: who's going to be the next president of the United
0:23
Speaker 1: States of America.
0:24
Speaker 2: Well, as they say, is at a monster truck rally tomorrow. Tomorrow, Tomorrow,
0:29
Speaker 2: Dear God, this will all be over. This long and terminable,
0:33
Speaker 2: never ending election will be over, God willing tomorrow. And
0:38
Speaker 2: what we're going to talk about today the day before
0:41
Speaker 2: election day, is two things. Number one, the stakes, what
0:44
Speaker 2: happens if Trump wins, what happens of Kamala wins. And
0:48
Speaker 2: number two, the lay of the land, where the polls are,
0:51
Speaker 2: what to expect, what tomorrow is going to look like.
0:53
Speaker 2: Both of those we're going to break down for you
0:55
Speaker 2: because everyone is waiting with baited breath to see what happens.
1:00
Speaker 1: We're also going to look at what the first one
1:02
Speaker 1: hundred days are going to look like if there is
1:04
Speaker 1: a Trump administration or a Harris administration, and that will
1:08
Speaker 1: be the closing arguments. For so many of your family members.
1:11
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3:10
Speaker 1: Right now, Senator, you've been all over You've been out
3:14
Speaker 1: on the road. I've been out on the road as well.
3:17
Speaker 1: I've been doing a lot of TV and radio over
3:20
Speaker 1: the last couple weeks. And if there's anything that people
3:23
Speaker 1: ask me, if they ask me one today at a
3:25
Speaker 1: thousand times a day, it's this question, what do you
3:29
Speaker 1: think our chances are? How is it looking? Is there
3:32
Speaker 1: really a chance Kamala Harris could beat Donald Trump? I'm
3:35
Speaker 1: going to ask you the question I've been getting every
3:37
Speaker 1: Day Times one thousand.
3:38
Speaker 3: Your thoughts on that to start with.
3:41
Speaker 2: Well, look on the last question. Yes, Unfortunately, there is
3:44
Speaker 2: a chance that Kamala wins. You know, I will say
3:46
Speaker 2: a month ago, I would have put the odds of
3:49
Speaker 2: the presidential at fifty to fifty. I think the last
3:53
Speaker 2: two weeks have been really good. I think the momentum
3:56
Speaker 2: is with Trump. I think he's been doing a lot
3:59
Speaker 2: of things right. We talked about in previous podcasts, how
4:02
Speaker 2: he's been joyful, how he's been having fun, things like
4:05
Speaker 2: going to McDonald's, things like driving the garbage truck. He
4:09
Speaker 2: has been behaving like a winning campaign. I think people
4:12
Speaker 2: can pick up on that. I also think the Kamala
4:14
Speaker 2: campaign is panicking. I think they feel like it's slipping
4:17
Speaker 2: away from them. If I if I were laying odds
4:21
Speaker 2: right now, I would put it at sixty forty that
4:24
Speaker 2: Trump wins. Now sixty forty. That actually scares the hell
4:28
Speaker 2: out of me, because what I'm saying is, I think
4:30
Speaker 2: there's a forty percent chance that we wake up on Wednesday,
4:33
Speaker 2: or maybe a month from Wednesday, if the knuckleheads in
4:36
Speaker 2: Philadelphia and Detroit and Milwaukee are still counting votes for
4:39
Speaker 2: a month but whenever this is resolved, I think there's
4:44
Speaker 2: a forty percent chance Kamala Harris's president. That is terrifying
4:48
Speaker 2: because the stakes for this country. I've never seen an
4:51
Speaker 2: election remotely this close. And so look, you were talking
4:56
Speaker 2: about first one hundred days. Let's talk for a minute.
4:59
Speaker 3: If Trump wins.
5:01
Speaker 2: If Trump wins, which you and I both hope and pray,
5:05
Speaker 2: is what happens, We're going to see a lot of
5:08
Speaker 2: things happen starting on January twentieth. Number one, on the border,
5:12
Speaker 2: we will secure the border. And understand, this is not
5:17
Speaker 2: going to take a year. I don't even believe it's
5:20
Speaker 2: going to take six months. This will happen in January
5:23
Speaker 2: and February of next year. Why because the single most
5:28
Speaker 2: important determinant of illegal immigration is one single question. It's
5:32
Speaker 2: a policy question. What happens when an illegal immigrant is apprehended?
5:37
Speaker 2: And if the answer is they're put on a plane
5:38
Speaker 2: and send home, the number's plummet. Understand, almost everyone that
5:42
Speaker 2: comes to this country carries a cell phone with them,
5:44
Speaker 2: So if they get here and suddenly they're flying back,
5:48
Speaker 2: they pick up the phone and call their friends and
5:49
Speaker 2: family and say, hey, don't come. They're not letting you stay.
5:52
Speaker 2: On the other hand, if when they get here they
5:56
Speaker 2: do what happens under Joe Biden Kamala Harris, which is
5:58
Speaker 2: they let him go and they fly them to every
6:00
Speaker 2: city in America. Well, they've still got that cell phone.
6:02
Speaker 2: They call it, call home and tell their friends and family, Hey,
6:05
Speaker 2: come on to America. Once you get here, you get
6:08
Speaker 2: to stay. Trump will end catch and release on January twentieth,
6:12
Speaker 2: and we will see the numbers plummet. That's number one,
6:17
Speaker 2: by the way. On the flip side, Kamala, we've seen
6:20
Speaker 2: a decrease in the legal immigration over the last couple
6:23
Speaker 2: of months because frankly, Kamala and Biden that they're really cynical.
6:27
Speaker 2: They think the voters are stupid, that they know the
6:30
Speaker 2: press will dutifully report, Oh, the numbers are down, it's
6:32
Speaker 2: all solved. If Kamala wins, God help us, the numbers
6:36
Speaker 2: will skyrocket. We have seen eleven and a half million
6:39
Speaker 2: people in the last four years. If Kamala is president
6:41
Speaker 2: for another four years, eleven and a half will become
6:44
Speaker 2: twenty five or thirty million. That is their objective, to
6:48
Speaker 2: invade this country with what they see as future Democrat
6:52
Speaker 2: voters and we will see it. It will only get worse.
6:55
Speaker 2: So just on immigration, the delta is massive.
7:01
Speaker 1: And not only that, but I also think we need
7:03
Speaker 1: to remind people that this administration made a deal with
7:06
Speaker 1: Mexico for them to help them get the numbers to
7:09
Speaker 1: go down temporarily heading up until election day, and that
7:14
Speaker 1: will all disappear if she wins.
7:16
Speaker 3: Correct.
7:18
Speaker 2: Absolutely no, No, the invasion continues full force, and I
7:22
Speaker 2: don't think we wait till January. The invasion starts going
7:25
Speaker 2: in mid November.
7:26
Speaker 3: Again.
7:28
Speaker 2: If Kamala wins, then they're like, all right, no need
7:30
Speaker 2: to pretend anymore. Let's go, let's bring in. We brought
7:33
Speaker 2: it in eleven and a half. I bet you we
7:34
Speaker 2: can do much.
7:35
Speaker 3: More than that.
7:36
Speaker 2: I mean, it will only escalate. Remember the government of
7:39
Speaker 2: Mexico announced just a few months ago that they were
7:43
Speaker 2: paying for buses to take illegal immigrants from Mexico's southern
7:46
Speaker 2: border all the way through Mexico and drop them off
7:49
Speaker 2: at their northern border. At our southern border. By the way,
7:52
Speaker 2: the government of Mexico is putting soldiers at or armed
7:55
Speaker 2: police officers on those buses to take them up there.
7:58
Speaker 2: They're doing it because Kamala Harria took the CVP one
8:01
Speaker 2: app which enables an illegal immigrant to apply to come
8:05
Speaker 2: into this country illegally, and they expanded it to now
8:09
Speaker 2: it applies to all of Mexico. So this is Kamala
8:14
Speaker 2: is trying to make the invasion of this country more
8:17
Speaker 2: rapid and more efficient, and Mexico will be eagerly complicit
8:22
Speaker 2: if God forbid she's president.
8:24
Speaker 1: Let me ask you another question before we get into
8:27
Speaker 1: the Senate races and the control of the Senate in
8:30
Speaker 1: the House, and also some of the other big issues
8:33
Speaker 1: that I think people are going to think about on
8:34
Speaker 1: election day, which include the economy. But the second most
8:39
Speaker 1: question I'm getting the most and I want to know
8:41
Speaker 1: if you're getting this as well, is will this election
8:45
Speaker 1: be fair? And how do we not know who the
8:49
Speaker 1: winner is on election night? I think most people believe
8:52
Speaker 1: we won't know an election night who's going to win
8:53
Speaker 1: between Trump and Harris, just because that seems to be
8:56
Speaker 1: this insane trend that in twenty twenty four we can't
8:59
Speaker 1: count votes. What are the odds we don't know who
9:01
Speaker 1: the president is on election night?
9:05
Speaker 2: Look, I think they're quite high because Democrats are both
9:08
Speaker 2: incompetent and they are engaged in malfeasans. Listen Texas. Texas
9:13
Speaker 2: is the second largest state in the country. It is
9:16
Speaker 2: smaller only than California. It's bigger than New York, it's
9:18
Speaker 2: bigger than Florida. We will be done on election night
9:23
Speaker 2: on Tuesday night. I'm going to predict by midnight, we
9:28
Speaker 2: will know the result in the presidential race, will know
9:30
Speaker 2: the result in my race, in the Senate race, we
9:32
Speaker 2: will know the result in the congressional races. There might
9:36
Speaker 2: be an individual state Rep race where it is within
9:40
Speaker 2: a few hundred votes where there has to be a recount.
9:42
Speaker 2: That sometimes happens on an individual district. But we will
9:46
Speaker 2: have the results in almost every race, if not every
9:51
Speaker 2: single race, by the end of election night in Texas.
9:54
Speaker 2: Now and if in Texas we can counter damn voats.
9:57
Speaker 2: Why can't they do that in Philadelphia? Why can't they
9:59
Speaker 2: do that in Detroit? Why can't they do that in Milwaukee?
10:02
Speaker 2: Why can't they do that in Atlanta? Why can't they
10:04
Speaker 2: do that in blue cities in swing states? And the answer,
10:10
Speaker 2: sadly is that I think the Democrats running them they
10:14
Speaker 2: wanted to lay it. And will there be voter fraud
10:18
Speaker 2: election day? Yes, and there has been voter fraud in
10:22
Speaker 2: every election as long as there have been elections. I've joked,
10:25
Speaker 2: if you went back to the cavemen when they were
10:28
Speaker 2: electing the Grand Puba, somebody stuffed the ballot box. That
10:32
Speaker 2: is human nature. Now there are two things that are
10:35
Speaker 2: good news. Number One, in red states, in states like Texas,
10:40
Speaker 2: like Florida, like Georgia, we have seen those states pass
10:45
Speaker 2: serious voter integrity laws, so it is much harder to
10:49
Speaker 2: cheat in red states. It's not impossible, but it's harder.
10:53
Speaker 2: We have things like photo id laws, we have things
10:56
Speaker 2: like banning ballad harvesting that make it significantly more difficult
11:00
Speaker 2: to cheat. In blue states or purple states, they have
11:04
Speaker 2: not passed election integrity laws. And the reason they haven't
11:08
Speaker 2: is Democrats have decided voter fraud is good for them.
11:12
Speaker 2: And by the way, this is new a decade ago.
11:14
Speaker 2: Like when I first got to the Senate twelve years ago,
11:17
Speaker 2: you had Democrats who were willing to be reasonable on
11:21
Speaker 2: enhancing election integrity. This has happened in the last few
11:25
Speaker 2: years that Democrats as a party have all decided we
11:28
Speaker 2: like voter fraud. The more of it, the better, And
11:32
Speaker 2: it is a very cynical decision. I think they've decided
11:35
Speaker 2: voter fraud is good for them politically. So Blue states
11:39
Speaker 2: have done nothing zero to enhance election integrity. We talked
11:43
Speaker 2: about in the last podcast how in Michigan a Chinese
11:47
Speaker 2: national voted illegally in the presidential election. The Chinese national
11:51
Speaker 2: came in and used his student ID, and the idiot
11:54
Speaker 2: Democrats in Michigan have decided a student ID is acceptable
11:58
Speaker 2: to vote, even though you don't have to be America
12:00
Speaker 2: con citizen to get a student I d so in
12:06
Speaker 2: Blue states and purple states, there will be fraud, and
12:08
Speaker 2: there will be more fraud than there is in red states.
12:11
Speaker 2: Here's the second level of good news. Historically, voter fraud
12:15
Speaker 2: only matters at the margin. They say, it only matters
12:18
Speaker 2: when it's close. What that means is we've got to
12:22
Speaker 2: win by a big enough margin they can't steal it.
12:25
Speaker 2: As Trump puts it, we need to win too big
12:28
Speaker 2: to rig. And so I will say, especially in these
12:31
Speaker 2: battleground states, we need to show up. If it's a
12:34
Speaker 2: half point or a point margin, we could be in trouble.
12:38
Speaker 2: If we win by five points, we'll be fined. And
12:40
Speaker 2: so we just need to make sure people turn out
12:43
Speaker 2: in big enough numbers that the election cannot be stolen.
12:47
Speaker 1: You talk about turnout, and this comes back to the issues.
12:50
Speaker 1: I still think this election is economy first nationwide and
12:55
Speaker 1: then safety, and that obviously encompasses the border. What are
13:00
Speaker 1: your thoughts on what is driving people of the polls,
13:03
Speaker 1: because the early voting numbers nationwide are very big compared
13:07
Speaker 1: to what we've seen the past.
13:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you look at the state of Texas, we
13:12
Speaker 2: are projecting north of seventy percent, maybe north of seventy
13:15
Speaker 2: five percent of the votes have already been cast, have
13:17
Speaker 2: been cast in early votes. That's not true in every state,
13:20
Speaker 2: but we're seeing a lot of early votes being cast
13:22
Speaker 2: all across the country. Listen, it's very state by state.
13:26
Speaker 2: Almost every public opinion poll that has done, the top
13:30
Speaker 2: two issues are either illegal immigration slash border security or
13:35
Speaker 2: economy slash inflation, and they both tend to be at
13:38
Speaker 2: about thirty percent and one or the others one and
13:41
Speaker 2: the others two, and they go back and forth. Typically
13:44
Speaker 2: the thirty issue is crime and that tends to be
13:48
Speaker 2: around nine or ten percent, although you could say crime
13:51
Speaker 2: and illegal immigration they're certainly intertwined. So there's no doubt
13:55
Speaker 2: those are the two monster issues on the board, or
14:00
Speaker 2: voters that are voting on illegal immigration or overwhelmingly voting
14:03
Speaker 2: for Donald Trump or overwhelmingly voting for Republicans. On the economy,
14:09
Speaker 2: it's a little bit more mixed. But inflation is a
14:12
Speaker 2: real problem. But it's hurting people. And let's go back
14:14
Speaker 2: to the first one hundred days. If Trump wins, we
14:18
Speaker 2: will see the regulatory assault that has been launched over
14:22
Speaker 2: the last four years on oil, gas and immediately. And
14:27
Speaker 2: you might think, all right, if you're in Texas, you
14:29
Speaker 2: get oil and gas are intertwined with jobs. But if
14:32
Speaker 2: you're in another state you may say, okay, what do
14:34
Speaker 2: I care about energy? You need to understand assaulting American
14:39
Speaker 2: energy is a massive driver of inflation because energy costs
14:45
Speaker 2: are inputs to everything. Let's take food. You might think, well,
14:49
Speaker 2: what does energy have to do with food. Well, for
14:51
Speaker 2: one thing, the fertilizers that farmers use have natural gas
14:55
Speaker 2: as a major input in them, and it drives up
14:59
Speaker 2: the cost of fertile Not only that every tractor, every
15:03
Speaker 2: bit of farm equipment uses diesel. Not only that, once
15:08
Speaker 2: you have reaped your crops, you take trucks to take
15:12
Speaker 2: them to the warehouse, taken to the grocery store, and
15:15
Speaker 2: so the cost of energy kicks in at every single
15:19
Speaker 2: level and drives it up. We will see again on
15:22
Speaker 2: January twentieth, I believe of next year, Trump will end
15:26
Speaker 2: that assault on energy. That is going to result in
15:30
Speaker 2: significantly increasing American oil production, natural gas production, that is
15:35
Speaker 2: going to result in driving down costs. That will mean
15:37
Speaker 2: not only costs that you pay at the gas pump,
15:41
Speaker 2: not only costs that you pay for paying your heating bill,
15:44
Speaker 2: but also cost that you pay in everything else. And
15:46
Speaker 2: I think we will see beyond that. We will see
15:49
Speaker 2: across the board an effort to repeal job killing regulations,
15:53
Speaker 2: and that, in turn, I believe will stimulate economic growth,
15:56
Speaker 2: which again brings inflation down as you get both moving forward.
16:01
Speaker 2: So on the economy, I think there's a big upside
16:04
Speaker 2: of Trump wins. If Kamala wins, we're gonna see more
16:07
Speaker 2: of the same. We're going to see the assault on
16:10
Speaker 2: American energy will only get worse. And listen, there's a
16:14
Speaker 2: big difference between Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Joe Biden's
16:18
Speaker 2: a puppet. He is mentally, he's not there any more.
16:22
Speaker 2: I think he is having his strings pulled by others.
16:26
Speaker 2: Kamala is a true believer. I think every bad policy
16:29
Speaker 2: of Joe Biden gets worse under Kamala.
16:32
Speaker 1: Harris, no doubt, And I think that's the reason why
16:36
Speaker 1: we see these massive early voting numbers that obviously is encouraging.
16:40
Speaker 1: Let me tell you this election, I've been burning the
16:42
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16:45
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16:51
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Speaker 1: off your first order. So now let's get back to
18:19
Speaker 1: the first hundred days, and this really comes down to
18:23
Speaker 1: I call it the closing arguments. There are a lot
18:27
Speaker 1: of people listening right now. They may have family members,
18:30
Speaker 1: they may have friends that are still on the fence
18:32
Speaker 1: deciding if they're going to vote or not an election day,
18:34
Speaker 1: take the time to do it, and I think we
18:36
Speaker 1: got to arm them with the important data of comparing contrasts.
18:40
Speaker 1: So what are some of the other things that are
18:43
Speaker 1: going to look very different in the first hundred days
18:45
Speaker 1: from a Harris campaign if she wins to a Trump administration.
18:49
Speaker 2: If he wins, well, as I said, on the border,
18:52
Speaker 2: Trump will secure the border. Kam l will open the
18:54
Speaker 2: borders even more. On energy, Trump will end the war
18:58
Speaker 2: on energy, which were reduced in inflation. Kamala will only
19:02
Speaker 2: increase the war and energy, which will increase inflation. On taxes, now,
19:07
Speaker 2: this question depends on what happens in the House and Senate.
19:11
Speaker 2: If Kamala wins and Republicans win the Senate, and I
19:13
Speaker 2: think there is a good chance right now Republicans win
19:16
Speaker 2: the Senate, although we need to take that deadly seriously
19:19
Speaker 2: because if the Democrats get the White House, the House,
19:21
Speaker 2: and the Senate, the country I think could be irreparably damaged.
19:24
Speaker 2: But if we end up with Kamala and the White
19:27
Speaker 2: House and a Republican Senate. It means we will not
19:31
Speaker 2: see a massive tax increase.
19:33
Speaker 3: That's good.
19:34
Speaker 2: But if Trump wins and we have a Republican Senate
19:36
Speaker 2: in the House, we will see the twenty seventeen tax
19:40
Speaker 2: cuts extended. Most of the twenty seventeen tax cuts expire
19:44
Speaker 2: next year. Trump has said he wants to extend them.
19:47
Speaker 2: Kamalas said she wants to let them expire. The Wall
19:50
Speaker 2: Street Journal calls this a six trillion dollar election. That's
19:55
Speaker 2: the delta of how much your taxes are going up
19:59
Speaker 2: versus how much they're going going down or staying down,
20:01
Speaker 2: depending on if the Democrats are Republicans win. If Trump wins,
20:05
Speaker 2: for example, and we have a Republican House and Senate,
20:07
Speaker 2: I think we'll see things like his proposal for no
20:10
Speaker 2: tax on tips. I think we'll pass that. As you know,
20:12
Speaker 2: I am the author of the no tax on tips
20:14
Speaker 2: legislation in the Senate. My legislation already has bipilate partisan support.
20:19
Speaker 2: I think will pass it into law. He is also
20:21
Speaker 2: advocating no tax on Social Security benefits. That's something I
20:25
Speaker 2: very much agree with. I think we'll get that done.
20:27
Speaker 2: That will impact you want to talk about seniors, Seniors
20:31
Speaker 2: struggling with inflation. No tax on social security benefits will
20:36
Speaker 2: be a real benefit to seniors quickly. So on taxes,
20:40
Speaker 2: there's a big, big delta. But let's also touch on
20:43
Speaker 2: foreign policy. If Trump wins, I think both of the
20:48
Speaker 2: wars that are ongoing right now end next year. I
20:51
Speaker 2: think the war on Ukraine ends, the war in Ukraine ends,
20:54
Speaker 2: and I think Trump forces a negotiated settlement. I think
20:57
Speaker 2: Russia will lose. It will not be a victory for Utin,
21:00
Speaker 2: but Trump will also say We're not gonna write checks indefinitely,
21:05
Speaker 2: end this and be done, and I think we'll get
21:07
Speaker 2: it resolved. I think Putin is scared of Trump. Putin
21:10
Speaker 2: is not scared of Kamala Harris, so I think that
21:12
Speaker 2: will resolve. And on Israel, I think the war in
21:15
Speaker 2: Israel resolves as well, and I think it resolves with
21:18
Speaker 2: Israel defeating Hamas. What Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have
21:22
Speaker 2: done is undermine Israel consistently. That has extended the war,
21:26
Speaker 2: that is encouraged Hamas, that is encouraged Hesbela, that has
21:30
Speaker 2: encouraged Iran. If Trump wins, we see the oil sanctions
21:34
Speaker 2: on Iran being enforced again, and their money suddenly plummets.
21:37
Speaker 2: The money going to Hamas and Hesbela plummets. And I
21:40
Speaker 2: actually think America standing strongly with Israel accelerates the resolution
21:45
Speaker 2: of this war. So the upside on foreign policy is
21:48
Speaker 2: very high. But if Kamala wins, I think we would
21:52
Speaker 2: see a Kamala Harris administration undermine Israel even more. I
21:56
Speaker 2: think it extends the war. I think it encourages Hamas,
21:58
Speaker 2: it encourages Has, I think it encourages Iran. You see
22:03
Speaker 2: Kamala continuing to flow billions of dollars to Iran. You
22:07
Speaker 2: know it was amazing. Man. When Kamala Harris did the
22:09
Speaker 2: sixty Minutes interview, they asked her what's the biggest threat
22:13
Speaker 2: to American She said Iran? And apparently sixty Minutes doesn't
22:17
Speaker 2: actually employ real journalists because they didn't ask the obvious
22:20
Speaker 2: follow up, Well, wait, if Iran is the biggest threat
22:24
Speaker 2: to America right now in your judgment, why did you
22:27
Speaker 2: flow a hundred billion dollars to Iran? Why are you
22:30
Speaker 2: funding the people who want to murder us? They didn't
22:32
Speaker 2: ask her that, and she has no answer to that
22:34
Speaker 2: she can't give an answer to that. But if she wins,
22:37
Speaker 2: the hundred billion dollars that has gone to Iran becomes
22:40
Speaker 2: two hundred billion or more, and that means Amas gets
22:43
Speaker 2: more money, HESBLA gets more money, More Israelis die, more
22:46
Speaker 2: Jews die, more Americans die, more of our allies die,
22:49
Speaker 2: the world gets more dangerous. So I will say on
22:52
Speaker 2: foreign policy, the consequences are massive and really frightening.
23:00
Speaker 3: You put this together, I called the trifecta.
23:03
Speaker 1: You've got a security issue at home with an open
23:07
Speaker 1: border the crime, you've got inflation the economy, and you
23:12
Speaker 1: have a foreign policy. And yet we're still having this
23:15
Speaker 1: real conversation center about there's a real chance Harris could
23:21
Speaker 1: win this thing. There is part of me that just
23:23
Speaker 1: steps back and goes, how is that even possible? And
23:26
Speaker 1: then I answer the question, it's because we become so
23:29
Speaker 1: tribal in this country, right. I mean, let's be honest.
23:32
Speaker 1: I think forty eight forty and a half percent are
23:35
Speaker 1: hardcore Democrats, forty eight percent are hardcore Republicans are fighting
23:39
Speaker 1: over two or three percent in the middle, and so
23:41
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter who the Democrats run.
23:43
Speaker 3: I think Harris his proof of that right.
23:45
Speaker 1: She was a terrible VP candidate, our presidential candidate. The
23:49
Speaker 1: first time around, she had one of the lowest approval
23:51
Speaker 1: ratings in the history of a VP. And yet now
23:54
Speaker 1: all of a sudden it was a coronation no one
23:56
Speaker 1: voted for. Let's not forget that. You have the corruption
23:59
Speaker 1: of the Biden family that should have been hangoverhead. Completely
24:02
Speaker 1: disconnect there because we are so divided as a country,
24:05
Speaker 1: and that concerns me as well.
24:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I don't think we are that divided. I
24:11
Speaker 2: don't think it's forty eight forty eight in terms of tribalism.
24:14
Speaker 2: I think there are a number of people who are
24:17
Speaker 2: not very engaged in politics and who the media is
24:21
Speaker 2: deliberately deceiving, and we need to have people understand the
24:24
Speaker 2: stakes of it. I don't think they're I don't think
24:26
Speaker 2: forty eight percent of the country are hardcore Democrats. In fact,
24:28
Speaker 2: I think this country is solidly center right. But we
24:32
Speaker 2: need to move them, we need to persuade them. And
24:34
Speaker 2: it's where the media being corrupt is such a problem.
24:36
Speaker 2: And so listen on the merits. We ought to be
24:41
Speaker 2: winning sixty five thirty five everywhere, but we're not. So
24:44
Speaker 2: let's break it down. Let's run through the swing states.
24:47
Speaker 2: So let's start with Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is the most important
24:50
Speaker 2: swing state. It's the largest swing state. If you look
24:54
Speaker 2: at right now the real clear politics average, Trump is winning,
24:58
Speaker 2: but barely. The average right now is Trump at forty
25:02
Speaker 2: eight point three and Kamala Harris at forty eight point zero.
25:06
Speaker 2: So Trump is up point zero three. And to give
25:10
Speaker 2: you a CeNSE, at this point two days to the election,
25:14
Speaker 2: Biden was up four point three and Clinton was up
25:16
Speaker 2: two point eight. And by the way, Clinton was up
25:18
Speaker 2: two point eight and Trump one in twenty sixteen. Now,
25:21
Speaker 2: if you look at the most recent polls, let me
25:23
Speaker 2: just go through the most recent ones. The most recent
25:26
Speaker 2: one was New York Times Sienna. That was a tie
25:28
Speaker 2: forty eight to forty eight. The one before that was
25:30
Speaker 2: Trump was plus one. The one before that was Trump
25:32
Speaker 2: plus two. The one before that was Trump plus one.
25:35
Speaker 2: The one before that was Harris plus two. The one
25:37
Speaker 2: before that was a tie. The one before that was
25:39
Speaker 2: Harris plus two. The one before that was Harris plus one.
25:42
Speaker 2: The one before that was Trump plus two. So the
25:45
Speaker 2: long and short of it is, Pennsylvania is really damn close,
25:48
Speaker 2: all right, let's go through the other swing states. Arizona, Arizona.
25:53
Speaker 2: I feel better about I think Trump is gonna win Arizona.
25:56
Speaker 2: The current average is Trump plus two point six. Here
26:01
Speaker 2: are the last several poles. The most recent Trump plus
26:04
Speaker 2: three before that, Trump plus four before that, Trump plus
26:07
Speaker 2: six before that, Trump plus one before that, Trump plus
26:10
Speaker 2: two before that, Trump plus eight before that, Trump plus
26:13
Speaker 2: two before that, a tie before that, Harris plus one.
26:16
Speaker 2: So it's been pretty consistent for a while that Trump's
26:19
Speaker 2: gotta lead. I think we win Arizona. How about Nevada, Nevada,
26:25
Speaker 2: Trump's gotta lead, but it's closer. The average in Nevada
26:29
Speaker 2: is Trump plus one. What are the most recent polls,
26:33
Speaker 2: and this is a lot more spotty. The most recent
26:35
Speaker 2: poll is Harris plus three before that, Trump plus six
26:42
Speaker 2: before that, Harris plus one before that, Trump plus six
26:48
Speaker 2: before that, Harris plus one before that, Trump plus two
26:52
Speaker 2: before that, a tie. So Nevada, it depends on the turnout.
26:58
Speaker 2: It's bumpy. I mean, we are leading in Nevada right now,
27:01
Speaker 2: but narrowly.
27:03
Speaker 3: All right.
27:04
Speaker 2: How about Wisconsin. Wisconsin is a really really important swing state.
27:11
Speaker 2: After Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are the two most important
27:14
Speaker 2: swing states. The current Real Clear Politics average Harris is
27:19
Speaker 2: up zero point three percent. Here are the most recent polls.
27:25
Speaker 2: Harris plus two before that, Trump plus one before that,
27:29
Speaker 2: Harris plus one before that, Trump plus one before that,
27:32
Speaker 2: Harris plus two before that, Trump plus three before that,
27:35
Speaker 2: a tie before that.
27:36
Speaker 3: A tie.
27:37
Speaker 2: So Wisconsin's another one that is raizor thin. How about Michigan. Michigan,
27:47
Speaker 2: the average right now is Harris plus zero point nine.
27:51
Speaker 2: Here are the most recent polls. The most recent is
27:54
Speaker 2: a tie before that, Trump plus one before that, a
27:57
Speaker 2: tie before that, Harris plus two before that, Trump plus
28:00
Speaker 2: two before that, Harris plus one, then Harris plus three,
28:03
Speaker 2: then Harris plus one, then a tie. Michigan is close,
28:08
Speaker 2: but accord to the public polling, the Democrats have a
28:10
Speaker 2: slight advantage. Let's take North Carolina. North Carolina. I think
28:15
Speaker 2: we're gonna win North Carolina. The current average is Trump
28:19
Speaker 2: plus one point five. Here are the most recent polls.
28:23
Speaker 2: There was one that just came out New York Times
28:25
Speaker 2: Siena that showed Harris plus two, but that's an outlier.
28:29
Speaker 2: Here are all the previous polls. Trump plus two, Trump
28:31
Speaker 2: plus four, Trump plus three, Trump plus two, Trump plus three,
28:35
Speaker 2: Trump plus one, Harris plus one tie. I think we'll
28:39
Speaker 2: end up winning North Carolina. But an open question in
28:44
Speaker 2: North Carolina is what is the impact of the hurricane
28:47
Speaker 2: And many of the areas hit are rider parts of
28:50
Speaker 2: the state. Does that depress turnout? I certainly hope not,
28:54
Speaker 2: but that is an X factor that no one has
28:56
Speaker 2: a firm answer. All right, final swing states, talk about Georgia.
29:01
Speaker 2: I think we'll win Georgia as well. The current average
29:05
Speaker 2: is Trump plus one point nine. Here are the most
29:09
Speaker 2: recent polls. The New York Times SANA poll showed Harris
29:13
Speaker 2: plus one, but again that was an outlier. Here are
29:15
Speaker 2: the previous polls before that. Trump plus one, Trump plus two,
29:19
Speaker 2: Trump plus five, Trump plus one, Trump plus two, Trump
29:22
Speaker 2: plus two tie, Trump plus one, Trump plus six. At
29:26
Speaker 2: the end of the day, I think we win Georgia,
29:29
Speaker 2: North Carolina, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, Michigan. In Wisconsin, Damned if
29:37
Speaker 2: I know Trump wins those he wins. But if we don't,
29:43
Speaker 2: we could be looking at President Kamala Harris.
29:45
Speaker 1: And that is the part that is obviously very scary.
29:48
Speaker 1: I want to ask you a final overview. What is
29:52
Speaker 1: the closing argument? What is your challenge to the listeners
29:55
Speaker 1: of Verdict, what is it that they really need to
29:57
Speaker 1: be focused on the last twenty four hours and so
30:00
Speaker 1: the final show before election day, And before I get
30:05
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32:21
Speaker 1: question center closing argument to the audience, a verdict. That's
32:25
Speaker 1: our last show before election day. What is your challenge
32:28
Speaker 1: to them?
32:30
Speaker 3: Listen?
32:30
Speaker 2: The question and every presidential election is are you better
32:33
Speaker 2: off now than you were four years ago? On the merits,
32:36
Speaker 2: it's not even close. You look at the economy. The
32:39
Speaker 2: economy is a trainck. Inflation's a train wreck. The border
32:42
Speaker 2: is worse than a train wreck. National security what both
32:46
Speaker 2: public safety? We are seeing violent criminal, illegalaliens being released
32:50
Speaker 2: every day. They are murdering Americans, they are raping women,
32:54
Speaker 2: they are raping and murdering children. Our safety is seriously compromised.
32:59
Speaker 2: We've seen the greatest I think the greatest risk of
33:02
Speaker 2: a terrorist attack we've ever seen from our open border
33:05
Speaker 2: inviting terrorists in this country, and the world's on fire.
33:09
Speaker 2: Think back under Donald Trump, and we had Donald Trump
33:11
Speaker 2: as president of Republican Senate, a Republican House. We had peace,
33:14
Speaker 2: we had prosperity, We had booming economic growth. People's lives
33:18
Speaker 2: were better. Millions of people were coming off food stamps,
33:21
Speaker 2: millions of people were moving into prosperity, Wages were going up.
33:25
Speaker 2: Safety and security was enhanced, the border was the safest
33:29
Speaker 2: it had been in forty five years. Those are the
33:33
Speaker 2: basic facts. That's the difference. And so I want to say,
33:37
Speaker 2: listen the verdict listeners. I'm going to say a little
33:41
Speaker 2: bit selfishly, I think we have the smartest, best informed,
33:45
Speaker 2: most patriotic, most amazing listeners in the planet. You guys
33:49
Speaker 2: are part of this discussion. Listen, Ben and I. All right,
33:53
Speaker 2: it is right now Sunday night. It is one oh
33:57
Speaker 2: four am, so it actually is Monday morning.
34:01
Speaker 3: It is four am.
34:03
Speaker 2: It is one o four am. I've spent the entire
34:05
Speaker 2: day on the campaign trail. I am bleary eyed and exhausted,
34:09
Speaker 2: and I'm going to spend all day tomorrow on the
34:11
Speaker 2: campaign trail. But Ben and I do this, and Ben's
34:14
Speaker 2: got to get up at like, I don't know, two
34:16
Speaker 2: thirty of the morning or something to do with his morning show.
34:18
Speaker 2: It's a little bit crazy. I don't know, actually think
34:20
Speaker 2: Ben sleeps. But we do this for a reason, which
34:25
Speaker 2: is that our listeners want to know the truth, want
34:28
Speaker 2: to know what's happening, want to be informed. One understand,
34:32
Speaker 2: how do we save America? How do we defend the constitution,
34:34
Speaker 2: how do we defend freedom. How do we fight to
34:38
Speaker 2: this country? I believe with all my heart is the
34:41
Speaker 2: greatest country in the history of the world, and I
34:43
Speaker 2: think our country is hanging by a thread. And so
34:47
Speaker 2: I want to say, look, I have every confidence that
34:50
Speaker 2: every Verdict listener has already voted early or is going
34:54
Speaker 2: to vote on Tuesday. So I'm not even going to
34:56
Speaker 2: insult you by telling you to vote, because if you're
34:58
Speaker 2: listening to Verdict, if you're the listener, you're going to vote.
35:01
Speaker 2: You love America and you're going to vote no matter what.
35:04
Speaker 2: So I want to encourage you. Of course you're going
35:06
Speaker 2: to do that, but get others to vote on Tuesday. Seriously,
35:10
Speaker 2: spend time, sit down and make phone calls. Drive someone
35:13
Speaker 2: to the polls. Call you know, call somebody, Call your sister,
35:18
Speaker 2: your son, your next door neighbor, your coworker, call somebody,
35:21
Speaker 2: and say, look, this election matters. If you get two, three, four,
35:25
Speaker 2: five people to vote who wouldn't have voted otherwise, you
35:27
Speaker 2: can change the outcome. And so I just want to
35:29
Speaker 2: have a call to action across this country. I know
35:35
Speaker 2: you love our country. I'm really frightened about this election.
35:39
Speaker 2: I'm hopeful, I'm optimistic. I said, I'm sixty forty, but
35:44
Speaker 2: that forty scares the hell out of me. So I
35:46
Speaker 2: want to call on our verdict, listeners, do not let
35:49
Speaker 2: the forty come to pass. Spend your time Monday and
35:54
Speaker 2: Tuesday getting people to show up and vote an election
35:58
Speaker 2: day so that when we're sitting there Tuesday night, we
36:01
Speaker 2: are celebrating and we're not horrified and weeping for a country.
36:06
Speaker 3: Amen to that.
36:07
Speaker 1: We will be back with you in some capacity, hopefully
36:10
Speaker 1: on election night, and we'll at least be able to
36:14
Speaker 1: talk more to you. Then, don't forget. We do the
36:17
Speaker 1: show Monday, Wednesday, Friday. Share this podcast please. Hopefully it'll
36:21
Speaker 1: inspire others to go vote and it makes you grab
36:25
Speaker 1: my podcast. I'll keep you updated as well, the Ben
36:27
Speaker 1: Ferguson podcasts as well. On election Day, I'll have that
36:31
Speaker 1: for you in the morning, and the Center I will
36:33
Speaker 1: see you back here tomorrow