Latest / The Ben Ferguson Podcast / The Strategic Gamble Behind the Two‑Week Pause w Sen Cruz

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The Strategic Gamble Behind the Two‑Week Pause w Sen Cruz · The Ben Ferguson Podcast

0:00
Speaker 1: Senator Cruz and I last night after midnight set down
0:03
Speaker 1: to talk about all of this ceasefire deal, what it means,
0:07
Speaker 1: and we also talked about some of the accusations that
0:11
Speaker 1: are being made against Donald Trump that if he would
0:13
Speaker 1: have bombed these bridges in Iran or bombed their utility facilities,
0:18
Speaker 1: their power plans, that that would constitute as the Democrats
0:21
Speaker 1: and media are pushing it as war crimes.
0:24
Speaker 2: Now, what is an actual war crime?
0:27
Speaker 1: And is Donald Trump anywhere close to that line at all?
0:31
Speaker 1: Or is this just another attack bs propaganda from the
0:35
Speaker 1: radical left and the state sponsored media to slander him.
0:39
Speaker 1: We dive into all of that, and I want you
0:41
Speaker 1: to hear our conversation. All right, Senator, So let's talk
0:44
Speaker 1: about the big news here. And look, the President made
0:47
Speaker 1: it very clear over the Easter weekend there was a
0:50
Speaker 1: hardcore deadline and that deadline was closing in quickly. It
0:54
Speaker 1: was going to be Tuesday night. The President, I said
0:57
Speaker 1: on Piers Morgan Show today, he's not going to flinch,
1:01
Speaker 1: Like you need to listen to him. It's very clear
1:04
Speaker 1: he's not going to flinch. And it was also very
1:07
Speaker 1: clear when he was demanding if you want to get
1:09
Speaker 1: a deal done, you got to open up the strain
1:10
Speaker 1: and horn moves. That is exactly now what Iran is
1:13
Speaker 1: saying they're going to do at least for hopefully the
1:15
Speaker 1: next two weeks while they try to figure this thing out.
1:18
Speaker 1: But that's the reason why the president said pause to
1:21
Speaker 1: major military action.
1:23
Speaker 3: Well I got to say, Ben, you and I also
1:24
Speaker 3: said that exact same thing on on Monday's verdict. And
1:28
Speaker 3: so I'm just sitting here wondering, why Ben do you
1:30
Speaker 3: hurt me? Why do you bring up Piers Morgan?
1:33
Speaker 2: Like? Why? Because I'm the commedy's over there.
1:36
Speaker 1: I was yelling at Dave Smith, the crazy guy that
1:38
Speaker 1: thinks because a terrorist organization.
1:41
Speaker 3: Don't argue with crazy people. It's like wrestling with pigs.
1:46
Speaker 3: You get covered in mud and the pig enjoys it.
1:50
Speaker 2: That's that's true. You would have been proud though.
1:52
Speaker 1: It was a one on one and I will, I
1:55
Speaker 1: say very kindly, I whipped his abs.
1:58
Speaker 2: It just it was a beat down, my friend.
2:00
Speaker 3: Are you familiar with the T shirt I refuse to
2:02
Speaker 3: have a battle of wits with an unarmed band?
2:04
Speaker 2: Yes?
2:05
Speaker 3: Yes, So look Monday's podcast, we did a deep dive
2:09
Speaker 3: on this and the President's threat. President Trump's threat, I
2:13
Speaker 3: believe was not a bluff. He was not kidding, and
2:15
Speaker 3: at eight pm he was prepared to unleash Holy Hell
2:20
Speaker 3: and to take out power plants across the nation of
2:22
Speaker 3: Iran and take out bridges across the nation of Iran.
2:25
Speaker 3: And what we talked about was the big open question
2:28
Speaker 3: was does the Iatola care, to the malos care or
2:31
Speaker 3: are they perfectly happy seeing their economy go literally back
2:36
Speaker 3: into the dark ages see the lights go out. I
2:38
Speaker 3: go back to having candles and be by fire pits
2:44
Speaker 3: because there's no electricity in the country. Well, here's what
2:48
Speaker 3: President Trump put out on Trump's Social on Tuesday, based
2:52
Speaker 3: on conversations with Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif and Field Marshal
2:56
Speaker 3: asim munir A Pakistan and wherein they request that I
3:00
Speaker 3: hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran
3:05
Speaker 3: and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran's agreeing to
3:08
Speaker 3: the all caps, complete, immediate and safe opening of the
3:11
Speaker 3: Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and
3:15
Speaker 3: attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This
3:18
Speaker 3: will be a double sided cease fire. Ceasefires all caps.
3:22
Speaker 3: The reason for doing so is that we have already
3:24
Speaker 3: met and exceeded all military objectives and are very far
3:28
Speaker 3: along with a definitive agreement concerning the long term peace
3:31
Speaker 3: with Iran and peace in the Middle East. We have
3:34
Speaker 3: received a ten point proposal from Iran and believe it
3:38
Speaker 3: is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all
3:42
Speaker 3: of the various points of past contention have been agreed
3:45
Speaker 3: to between the United States and Iran, but a two
3:48
Speaker 3: week period will allow the agreement to be finalized and consummated.
3:52
Speaker 3: On behalf of the United States of America, as President
3:55
Speaker 3: and also representing the countries of the Middle East, it
3:58
Speaker 3: is an honor to have this long term problem close
4:01
Speaker 3: to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter,
4:05
Speaker 3: President Donald J. Trump. Now, in response, Iran put out
4:10
Speaker 3: an official statement, and here's the response of Iran. Tehran,
4:15
Speaker 3: seven April twenty twenty six, on behalf of the Islamic
4:18
Speaker 3: Republic of Iran. I expressed gratitude depreciation for my dear brothers,
4:23
Speaker 3: the Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and the Field Marshal
4:26
Speaker 3: Mounir for their tireless efforts to end the war in
4:28
Speaker 3: the region. In response to the brotherly request of Prime
4:32
Speaker 3: Minister Sharif it is tweet and considering the request by
4:36
Speaker 3: the US for negotiations based on its fifteen point proposal,
4:40
Speaker 3: as well as an announcement by POTUS about acceptance of
4:43
Speaker 3: the general framework of Iran's ten point proposal as a
4:46
Speaker 3: basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran's
4:50
Speaker 3: Supreme National Security Council, if attacks against Iran are halted,
4:56
Speaker 3: are powerful armed forces, each capitalized will cease their defensive
5:02
Speaker 3: operations for a period of two weeks. Safe passage through
5:06
Speaker 3: Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's
5:11
Speaker 3: armed forces and with due consideration of technical limitations. Sayed
5:15
Speaker 3: Abas Aragachi, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Islamic Republic of Iran. Now,
5:22
Speaker 3: as you and I are sitting here, it is a
5:23
Speaker 3: few minutes before midnight Tuesday night. We don't know what's
5:27
Speaker 3: going to happen. We do know there are reports this
5:30
Speaker 3: evening of Iranian ballistic missiles raining down on Israel right now,
5:36
Speaker 3: so it appears as of right now, the two way
5:39
Speaker 3: ceasefire is not being honored by Iran. We don't know
5:43
Speaker 3: what will happen on Wednesday, on Thursday, on Friday, I
5:46
Speaker 3: will say, if Iran can continues offensive attacks on its neighbors,
5:52
Speaker 3: I am skeptical the two week pause will hold.
5:56
Speaker 1: Let me ask you a question about the wording there,
5:58
Speaker 1: because I think this is very interesting and I want
6:00
Speaker 1: your take on it.
6:02
Speaker 2: Two ways ceasefire.
6:03
Speaker 1: There was several people that I talked to in Israel
6:06
Speaker 1: that said, the reason why that verbiage may have been
6:10
Speaker 1: used is to make it clear this was just a
6:12
Speaker 1: ceasefire between the US and Iran. This did not include
6:17
Speaker 1: Israel Iran. That's why it was two way, not three way,
6:21
Speaker 1: right trilateral you know, agreement here, and it looked like Israel.
6:26
Speaker 1: It also basically said like we're still gonna probably be
6:29
Speaker 1: hitting targets over the next two weeks as well. Is
6:31
Speaker 1: that part of the reason why the President said it
6:33
Speaker 1: that way?
6:33
Speaker 2: Do you think so?
6:35
Speaker 3: I'm gonna give you my technical and precise answer. I
6:38
Speaker 3: got no idea. I don't know.
6:42
Speaker 1: Might I love doing this show. If we don't know something,
6:44
Speaker 1: we will tell you, like I'm not.
6:45
Speaker 3: Gonna hide it. Look, I'm reading the same tweet you are.
6:48
Speaker 3: The tweet says this will be a double sided ceasefire. Look,
6:53
Speaker 3: my suspicion is that was meant to include Israel. But
6:57
Speaker 3: I don't know that.
6:59
Speaker 2: Okay, I see pretty oppositely that.
7:01
Speaker 1: I thought it was like a cheeky way of saying, hey,
7:03
Speaker 1: you guys in Israel, y'all got to figure out your
7:06
Speaker 1: own thing. And for the next two weeks, this is
7:08
Speaker 1: just us, this is me, this is U as Iran,
7:10
Speaker 1: and that gives the Israel the freedom to do what
7:12
Speaker 1: they need to continue to do in their opinion.
7:15
Speaker 3: Oh look, maybe I don't know. I have not seen
7:19
Speaker 3: any reports in the media or on X of additional
7:24
Speaker 3: attacks on Iran tonight. They may be happening. I don't
7:27
Speaker 3: know that Israel is not attacking rand tonight, but I
7:30
Speaker 3: have not seen any reports if that's happening. What I've
7:33
Speaker 3: seen is reports of Iran's attacks going out. And you know,
7:42
Speaker 3: for example, the New York Times, always a questionable source
7:49
Speaker 3: retired as follows by the way, twenty eight minutes ago.
7:52
Speaker 3: The New York Times. Okay, you ask, and I answer,
7:56
Speaker 3: albeit with weak sourcing. The New York Times up dated
8:00
Speaker 3: twenty eight minutes ago. Iran War Live updates US, Iran
8:05
Speaker 3: and Israel agree to cease fire.
8:08
Speaker 2: Now, okay, here you go.
8:09
Speaker 3: The deal came shortly before President Trump's deadline for Iran
8:12
Speaker 3: to reopen the Straight of Hormos or face devastation. Israel
8:16
Speaker 3: said the ceasefire did not include Lebanon. Now that seems fair.
8:19
Speaker 3: Lebanon with Hesbela, that's not Iran. Yeah, although Hesbela is
8:23
Speaker 3: an Iranian proxy, But that's fair. Here's what the New
8:26
Speaker 3: York Times reported. And by the way, I don't know
8:29
Speaker 3: what this is. I literally just found it on my
8:31
Speaker 3: phone and I'm reading it, so we'll find out what
8:33
Speaker 3: it says. Here's the latest. The United States in Iran
8:36
Speaker 3: reached an eleventh hour ceasefire deal on Tuesday evening, hours
8:39
Speaker 3: after President Trump threatened to start wiping out Iran's whole
8:42
Speaker 3: civilization if it did not allow commercial shipping to pass
8:46
Speaker 3: safely through the Strait of Hormuse. Mister Trump announced the agreement.
8:50
Speaker 3: Pakistan proposed each side observer a two weeks ceasefire. It
8:54
Speaker 3: will take months for global jet fuel supplies to return
8:57
Speaker 3: to normal. Now here's another aspect. Oil prices plunge and
9:03
Speaker 3: stocks surge after the ceasefire deal. And here's what Iran
9:10
Speaker 3: or Iran The New York Times posted oil prices tumbled
9:13
Speaker 3: and stocks in Asia surged on Tuesday as investors breathed
9:16
Speaker 3: a sigh of relief after the United States in Iran
9:19
Speaker 3: reached a last minute ceasefire agreement, temporarily avoiding a worst
9:22
Speaker 3: case scenario President Trump, following through on his pledge to
9:25
Speaker 3: wipe out Iran the seat. Why is that a worst
9:28
Speaker 3: case scenario? I guess if you're the Iatola, it's a
9:30
Speaker 3: worst case scenario. I'm not sure. For the New York Times,
9:32
Speaker 3: you know, it would be truly horrific if the Islamist
9:37
Speaker 3: regime in Iran that wants to murder Americans, it is
9:40
Speaker 3: murdering Americans if they suffered yet another loss. That's the
9:43
Speaker 3: New York Times. Let me keep reading. The ceasefire deal
9:45
Speaker 3: came ninety minutes for a deadline set by mister Trump.
9:48
Speaker 3: Israel supports President Trump's decision to stop attacking Iran for
9:52
Speaker 3: two weeks subject to the immediate reopening straight of Hormus
9:55
Speaker 3: and the cessation of Iran tax against the United States,
9:58
Speaker 3: Israel and other countries in the region. Officer Prime Minister
10:00
Speaker 3: Benjamin Netanya, who said in the statement, so we don't
10:05
Speaker 3: know right now. But listen, if it gets the straight
10:09
Speaker 3: of Horror moves opened, that's positive. Yes, uh, that is
10:13
Speaker 3: a step in the right direction. I will say the
10:14
Speaker 3: Iranian military, what President Trump said in his Truth Social
10:18
Speaker 3: is exactly right. Many of the military objectives have been accomplished.
10:23
Speaker 3: The military has been degraded almost out of existence. It's
10:27
Speaker 3: one of the reasons the Iranian statement about you know,
10:29
Speaker 3: are very powerful military will stop striking. Yeah, there's virtually
10:34
Speaker 3: no military left. It's like four guys with a slingshot
10:37
Speaker 3: sitting on the back of a camel. So so it's uh,
10:40
Speaker 3: but they're very powerful military. What they do have is
10:43
Speaker 3: some minds and some speedboats with dynamites that have the
10:46
Speaker 3: potential of sinking potentially oil tankers in the strait of
10:50
Speaker 3: hor Moves. And so they are having leverage.
10:53
Speaker 1: By the way to the way, it was ascribed to
10:55
Speaker 1: me by a guy in the military when he was
10:57
Speaker 1: trying to explain to me, like again, it's coming from
11:00
Speaker 1: military mindset, he said, Ben, this is what Americans need
11:03
Speaker 1: to understand, he said, and please explain this wherever you can.
11:07
Speaker 1: We've taken out them as a military. They now have
11:11
Speaker 1: what he described as terrorist weaponry terrorist weaponry is completely
11:16
Speaker 1: different than military weaponry. Military weaponry is like you know,
11:19
Speaker 1: radar and ballistic missiles and airplanes that can have dogfights.
11:23
Speaker 1: He said, Terrorists can do things with fertilizer, they can
11:27
Speaker 1: do things with dynamite. They can do things that are
11:31
Speaker 1: basic as you just described it, like blowing a hole
11:33
Speaker 1: in the side of an old tanker and having a
11:35
Speaker 1: massive you know, economic as well as environmental issue in
11:39
Speaker 1: the sort of horn Moves. And so the point he
11:41
Speaker 1: was making was this idea that I mean he went
11:45
Speaker 1: back to Al Kada and isis you can do a
11:48
Speaker 1: lot of damage with very basic things. Car bombs are
11:52
Speaker 1: great example, with fertilizer, ammonia, you know, the very basics
11:56
Speaker 1: is he described it. He said, the good news is
11:59
Speaker 1: we've we've deestimated the military in Iran. We have not decimated.
12:03
Speaker 1: He described it the terrist aspect of Iran because all
12:06
Speaker 1: you need is a couple crazy guys with very little
12:09
Speaker 1: resources and you can do something on a terrorist scale.
12:12
Speaker 2: And we've seen that all over the world.
12:14
Speaker 3: I think that's exactly right. And understand the straight up
12:16
Speaker 3: Hoom Moves is not Irans to control. That is not
12:20
Speaker 3: part of Iran. That is international waters. It just happens
12:22
Speaker 3: to be nearby to Iran, and the fact that they're
12:26
Speaker 3: willing to act as terrorists.
12:29
Speaker 1: Can you explain to everybody how the straight up hoar
12:31
Speaker 1: moves is supposed to work. I think a lot of
12:33
Speaker 1: people don't understand the international aspect of this. I think
12:37
Speaker 1: also the media has been really portraying and almost like, well,
12:40
Speaker 1: it's kind of Iran's anyway, and they.
12:42
Speaker 2: Let us use it. That is a lie. Can you
12:44
Speaker 2: explain that for people? Real quick?
12:45
Speaker 3: Look, at the end of the day, it doesn't operate
12:47
Speaker 3: materially differently than say the Atlantic Ocean or Pacific Ocean.
12:52
Speaker 3: If you're sailing from New York City to London, you're
12:56
Speaker 3: going to cross the Atlantic, and you know what, there
12:58
Speaker 3: is a possibility across the Atlantic of piracy. Someone someone
13:03
Speaker 3: out on the Atlantic, you could be in an ocean liner,
13:05
Speaker 3: could pilot a ship into your boat and or and
13:09
Speaker 3: have dynamite and explode and sink it. Uh Now, And
13:12
Speaker 3: by the way, piracy used to be a frequent peril.
13:16
Speaker 3: I mean that was not an unusual There's a great
13:19
Speaker 3: series that I've watched on Netflix. You ever watched Black Sales?
13:23
Speaker 2: No?
13:24
Speaker 3: Oh, Black Sales?
13:25
Speaker 1: Why have you been holding out of me for a
13:26
Speaker 1: guy that tells you that all these other movies they
13:28
Speaker 1: gotta watch you you admit this one, This actually seems
13:31
Speaker 1: like one I want to watch now.
13:32
Speaker 3: Yeah. So it's actually not a movie. It's a series
13:34
Speaker 3: and it's like four seasons long, uh, and it's about pirates,
13:39
Speaker 3: Black Sales. It's about pirates in the Caribbean, and so
13:41
Speaker 3: Blackbeard is in it, and it's really well done. I
13:44
Speaker 3: watched the whole thing. Look, I'm on airplanes all the time,
13:47
Speaker 3: so as you know, I download lots of series. By
13:50
Speaker 3: the way, Ben, we have done a movie podcast. We
13:52
Speaker 3: haven't done a Netflix download podcast. I want to do
13:56
Speaker 3: that at some point. Maybe we'll do it for holiday
13:58
Speaker 3: or something. I think those because I have a lot
14:00
Speaker 3: of series I've downloaded. But Black Sales goes through. There
14:04
Speaker 3: was a whole era where where if you're taking you know,
14:06
Speaker 3: cotton from UH from a plantation in the South, and
14:10
Speaker 3: and you're going going to the Caribbean, or you're going
14:14
Speaker 3: to UH to England, UH, you might encounter pirates who
14:18
Speaker 3: would come along with cannons and and boord you and
14:21
Speaker 3: protect potentially kill everyone on board and steal your cargo
14:25
Speaker 3: and pirracy. It's not entirely gone away, but it's mostly
14:29
Speaker 3: gone away. And it's mostly gone away due to the
14:32
Speaker 3: United States and and and one of the things that
14:34
Speaker 3: happened post World War two is the United States took
14:38
Speaker 3: a responsibility of ensuring navigation of the open seas. And
14:42
Speaker 3: it wasn't we didn't have to do that, but but
14:45
Speaker 3: it produced uh more than a half century of global
14:49
Speaker 3: trade and commerce where where people could you could put
14:52
Speaker 3: a shipping container from the United States to England, from
14:55
Speaker 3: the United States to Asia, and the odds of it
14:58
Speaker 3: being robbed on the high seas were pretty low. They
15:01
Speaker 3: weren't zero, but they were pretty low. And it produced
15:05
Speaker 3: you know, when the Roman Empire was at its height,
15:08
Speaker 3: the world saw something called the Pax Romana, the peace
15:11
Speaker 3: of the Romans, because the Roman Empire prevented threats. Well,
15:18
Speaker 3: we had for some time been going through what's called
15:20
Speaker 3: the Pax Americana, which is the peace that the Americans
15:23
Speaker 3: have brought by allowing global shipment and trade. The Strait
15:27
Speaker 3: of Hormus is a much more constricted place because it's
15:29
Speaker 3: just it's going around where you don't have much space,
15:32
Speaker 3: and if you're going through the Suez Canal. You got
15:33
Speaker 3: to pass through there, and it's a narrow passage, which means, Look,
15:40
Speaker 3: if Iran wanted to try to shut off transit across
15:44
Speaker 3: the Atlantic Ocean, and that's a really big body of water,
15:46
Speaker 3: that's not easy to do. The Strait of Hormus is
15:49
Speaker 3: not that big, and so it is a natural choke
15:53
Speaker 3: point where a terrorist can focus. It's interesting Iran is
15:58
Speaker 3: promising to open it up, so we'll see what that means.
16:02
Speaker 3: But there are also reports of Iran continuing the fire
16:05
Speaker 3: ballistic missile, so we'll see if the ceasefire even last
16:09
Speaker 3: twenty four hours. Every missile Iran fires, I think decreases
16:14
Speaker 3: the chance of the ceasefire maintaining.
16:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, you're right. I want to ask you another question.
16:19
Speaker 1: I got a lot of questions ask you Tonight Center
16:21
Speaker 1: because there are questions I keep getting asked and I
16:23
Speaker 1: want your take on them. I was asked this question
16:26
Speaker 1: by Peers Morgan and he said, Ben, what is what
16:28
Speaker 1: is your definition of success in Iran? My answer was, look,
16:35
Speaker 1: I think the media has changed it to the only
16:38
Speaker 1: thing that is acceptable to not be considered a failure
16:41
Speaker 1: is if the regime falls and there's this like massive,
16:44
Speaker 1: you know, moment in Iran where the people win. I said,
16:49
Speaker 1: my definition of success is taking away the threat of
16:53
Speaker 1: Iran being a nuclear power and being able to kill
16:56
Speaker 1: innocent men, women and children and Americans. That is my
16:59
Speaker 1: definition now I bonus right, A moral victory above that
17:03
Speaker 1: would be if you truly saw regime change and the
17:08
Speaker 1: fall of the leadership in Iran. Right now, I'm not
17:11
Speaker 1: so obsessed with that point. I think the people ran,
17:14
Speaker 1: they got to decide for themselves. But for me, it
17:16
Speaker 1: was all about the nuclear capabilities and making sure they
17:19
Speaker 1: could do no harm to us and to innocent people. Also,
17:23
Speaker 1: I think in the Middle East around the world that
17:25
Speaker 1: includes Israel. What is your definition of success here? Because
17:28
Speaker 1: the media is trying to say, ay, this is a quagmire.
17:32
Speaker 1: Quagmire by the way, if you ask Ai, for example,
17:34
Speaker 1: they'll say it's years into a war, if it's stagnant,
17:37
Speaker 1: or you're not making gains, not four weeks in, five
17:40
Speaker 1: weeks in or six weeks.
17:41
Speaker 2: And that's absurd.
17:42
Speaker 1: But the media keeps wanting to use the word we're
17:43
Speaker 1: in a quagmire already. I think that's an absurd lie.
17:47
Speaker 1: And now they're saying, the only way this could be
17:49
Speaker 1: a success for Trump is the way I described it.
17:51
Speaker 1: They describe it, which is the regime falls and that's it.
17:55
Speaker 3: Well, look that there was a very interesting story, a
17:58
Speaker 3: long story in the New York Times today about the
18:01
Speaker 3: inside decision making in the Trump administration behind the decision
18:05
Speaker 3: to go to war with Iran, and it describes the
18:09
Speaker 3: TikTok up to it, right up until the point on
18:12
Speaker 3: Air Force one on Friday where Trump gave the go order.
18:16
Speaker 3: And I was with President Trump on Air Force One
18:18
Speaker 3: at the time he gave the order. I did not
18:21
Speaker 3: know he had given that order, but he was asking
18:23
Speaker 3: me and the others on Air Force one what we
18:25
Speaker 3: thought should he do so, And it turns out on
18:27
Speaker 3: that flight is where he actually gave the go order.
18:29
Speaker 3: And it describes that there was a vigorous debate within
18:32
Speaker 3: the administration that JD. Vance, the Vice President, was the
18:36
Speaker 3: most vocal opponent of striking Iran, and there was a
18:40
Speaker 3: vigorous back and forth among the cabinet. And it described
18:46
Speaker 3: four different steps of the military engagement. Number one decapitating
18:50
Speaker 3: the Iranian regime, taking out the Iotola and the senior
18:54
Speaker 3: military leadership. Number two destroying their ballistic missiles, their drones,
18:59
Speaker 3: their ability to wage war. Number three, incentivizing the Iranian
19:05
Speaker 3: people to rise up and revolt. At number four, seeing
19:09
Speaker 3: a new government, seeing regime change in Iran, and there
19:12
Speaker 3: was considerable debate the according to the Times, and I
19:16
Speaker 3: got to say, just reading the account, I don't know
19:18
Speaker 3: that it's exactly accurate, but it ran in a way
19:23
Speaker 3: that was very plausible. There was considerable agreement that steps
19:26
Speaker 3: one and two were very accomplishable, very achievable, and likely
19:29
Speaker 3: achievable and fairly short order. And there was considerable debate
19:33
Speaker 3: about whether steps three and four, a popular uprising and
19:38
Speaker 3: replacing the regime with another regime, whether those were achievable.
19:43
Speaker 3: I can tell you what the Trump administration has articulated.
19:46
Speaker 3: It is articulated its goal was number two. Number two
19:50
Speaker 3: is what it's described as goal, which is taking out
19:52
Speaker 3: Iran's ability to wage war, and in particular it's described
19:57
Speaker 3: look Iran. There's there's no indication I've seen no evidence
20:01
Speaker 3: that Iran had nuclear weapons or was close to getting
20:04
Speaker 3: nuclear weapons that they were trying. Last summer and President
20:08
Speaker 3: Trump launched bunker busters and took out their nuclear weapons
20:12
Speaker 3: research facilities. Including infordoh in the basement of a mountain
20:16
Speaker 3: that had devastating effect. So the reason this military attack
20:21
Speaker 3: was launched was not to stop an imminent, imminent realization.
20:27
Speaker 2: Of nuclear weapons tomorrow type of thing.
20:29
Speaker 3: Yeah, the reason it was launched is they were vigorously
20:32
Speaker 3: rapidly building ballistic missiles and drones. And they were doing
20:36
Speaker 3: that because they wanted such a large arsenal that if
20:40
Speaker 3: Israel or the United States attacked Iran, they would be
20:42
Speaker 3: able to inflict massive damage on their neighbors and kill
20:46
Speaker 3: a lot of people. And the Trump administration didn't want
20:49
Speaker 3: to be in a position a year from now when
20:51
Speaker 3: say they had launched their nuclear weapons research and development again,
20:56
Speaker 3: but when the cost of intervening was so high that
20:59
Speaker 3: thou of people might die. Because they had so many missiles,
21:02
Speaker 3: they could just carpet bomb their neighbors and kill hundreds
21:06
Speaker 3: or even thousands of people. And so the Trump administration said, look,
21:09
Speaker 3: if they develop enough missiles and enough drones, they would
21:13
Speaker 3: do that as essentially an umbrella to shield their ability
21:16
Speaker 3: to then develop a nuclear weapon. And I think it
21:19
Speaker 3: ran with a nuclear weapon, the odds are unacceptably high
21:22
Speaker 3: they would use it. That was the major reason that
21:25
Speaker 3: we launched this attack, and what the Trump administration articulated
21:30
Speaker 3: is their objective was to take out the air defenses,
21:32
Speaker 3: to take out the Air Force, to take out the Navy,
21:34
Speaker 3: to take out the ballistic missiles, to take out the drones,
21:37
Speaker 3: to take out the launchers, to take out the drone
21:39
Speaker 3: manufacturing capability, to take out the missile manufacturing capability. We've
21:44
Speaker 3: done essentially all of that. The success has been extraordinary. Now,
21:50
Speaker 3: the administration has by and large been very reluctant to
21:54
Speaker 3: use the words regime change. And I understand why. Regime
21:58
Speaker 3: change is associated with Iraq. It's associated with hundreds of
22:02
Speaker 3: thousands of troops on the ground for years on end.
22:04
Speaker 3: It's associated with escalating American casualties and fatalities. And President
22:10
Speaker 3: Trump is not interested in that kind of military conflict.
22:14
Speaker 3: The chances of that happening, I believe, are zero. Trump
22:17
Speaker 3: doesn't want to do that, and so regime change people
22:20
Speaker 3: are really nervous to say that's the objective. What I
22:23
Speaker 3: have said the objective should be is regime collapse. This
22:28
Speaker 3: regime a regime of Islamists who chant death to America,
22:33
Speaker 3: who fund terrorists who are killing Americans. And who want
22:37
Speaker 3: to continue killing Americans. I think that is a danger
22:40
Speaker 3: to the United States. I don't care who takes their place.
22:43
Speaker 3: I don't care if it's the crown Prince, the shaw San,
22:46
Speaker 3: I don't care if it's a military strong man. I
22:48
Speaker 3: don't care if it's the democratically elected leader from the people.
22:52
Speaker 3: That's not my concern. I'm not in the nation building business.
22:56
Speaker 3: My objective is not to turn Iran into Switzerland. That's
22:59
Speaker 3: up to the people of Iran. If they want a
23:02
Speaker 3: peaceful society, that's great. I wish them all the well,
23:06
Speaker 3: all the best at all, but it's not the US
23:09
Speaker 3: military's job to do that. It is the US military's
23:12
Speaker 3: job to take out enemies.
23:13
Speaker 2: Now.
23:14
Speaker 3: I do agree that seeing a regime of tyrants, particularly
23:19
Speaker 3: a regime of tyrants willing to kill up to forty
23:21
Speaker 3: thousand of their own citizens, seeing them fall is not easy.
23:25
Speaker 3: So the objective of regime collapse may prove really difficult.
23:30
Speaker 3: I hope we keep at it. But opening the Strait
23:32
Speaker 3: of Hormuz is a really important tactical step. And by
23:36
Speaker 3: the way, if we end up with a government that
23:40
Speaker 3: has a negotiated settlement where they stop funding terrorists, and
23:42
Speaker 3: they stop killing Americans and they stop trying to kill Americans.
23:46
Speaker 3: That is a huge, huge victory. I don't know if
23:51
Speaker 3: we get there, but what I told President Trump that
23:54
Speaker 3: the day he ordered the attack is this regime has
23:59
Speaker 3: never been weaker than right now, and we will regret it.
24:02
Speaker 3: We will regret it for years and decades if we've
24:04
Speaker 3: missed this opportunity, because there's very few things on planet
24:08
Speaker 3: Earth that would make America safer than getting this murderous
24:12
Speaker 3: regime out of power so they could no longer be
24:15
Speaker 3: able to kill Americans.
24:17
Speaker 1: All right, let me ask you another question that's gotten
24:19
Speaker 1: a lot of fodder online, and I think it's an
24:22
Speaker 1: important one to answer. Democrats and the media really seem
24:27
Speaker 1: to be trying to figure out some way, even if
24:29
Speaker 1: there's success with this Iranian policy of Trump, that they
24:32
Speaker 1: can stick it to Donald Trump. And now the new
24:34
Speaker 1: thing over the last twenty four to forty eight hour
24:36
Speaker 1: has been Donald Trump is advocating for committing war crimes
24:41
Speaker 1: by blowing up bridges potentially in Iran and power plants
24:44
Speaker 1: in Iran. Let's talk about the war crimes aspect of
24:48
Speaker 1: this and deal with what Americans need to know about
24:51
Speaker 1: this new line by the left because they I mean
24:53
Speaker 1: they will they care more about Donald Trump being in
24:56
Speaker 1: trouble than actually taking out a murderer's regime in Iran.
25:00
Speaker 3: That's true. And I will say one of the sad things.
25:02
Speaker 3: It used to be the case for a long long
25:04
Speaker 3: time that politics ended at the water's edge, and in
25:08
Speaker 3: other words, that Republicans and Democrats battle here at home
25:12
Speaker 3: over all sorts of issues, but when it comes to
25:14
Speaker 3: military conflict abroad, when it comes to defending America, that
25:18
Speaker 3: the two sides refrained from partisan attack. I got to
25:22
Speaker 3: say that is not the case anymore. The instant President
25:26
Speaker 3: Trump launched this attack, Democrats began savaging him. You know,
25:30
Speaker 3: we had a classified briefly short shortly after the beginning
25:33
Speaker 3: of this attack where you had the Secretary of State,
25:36
Speaker 3: Secretary Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the head of
25:38
Speaker 3: the CIA, kind of all the top national security apparatus
25:41
Speaker 3: in the Trump administration, and all one hundred senators attended
25:47
Speaker 3: that and they were laying out what was happening. And look,
25:51
Speaker 3: I'm not going to say anything that was said by
25:53
Speaker 3: the briefers in the classified briefing, but I can tell
25:55
Speaker 3: you other than John Fetterman, who has been very positive
25:59
Speaker 3: on what he said publicly about about the conflict with Iran.
26:03
Speaker 3: Every single Democrat senator in the room was highly, highly skeptical,
26:08
Speaker 3: was attacking what happened, was opposing what happened. Was started
26:12
Speaker 3: on day one with we are against standing up to Iran,
26:17
Speaker 3: and I sat there and just kind of shook my head.
26:21
Speaker 3: I was saddened by that. And so one of their
26:24
Speaker 3: talking points when when President Trump said he was going
26:26
Speaker 3: to take out power plants and bridges, and why did
26:28
Speaker 3: he say power plants and bridges? By the way, Look,
26:31
Speaker 3: the biggest thing to take out for Iran is their
26:33
Speaker 3: oil production facility, carg Island, which is the key to
26:36
Speaker 3: where they export virtually all their oil from yep, carg Island.
26:40
Speaker 3: If we really wanted to cripple Iran and and and
26:43
Speaker 3: put them into the Stone Age, we'd take out their
26:46
Speaker 3: their oil facilities. We'd bomb the hell out of carg Island,
26:50
Speaker 3: and Iran's economy would just be screwed for a decade.
26:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, instantly.
26:56
Speaker 1: By the way, people need to understand that, Like if
26:58
Speaker 1: you just wanted to decimate the economic that is how
27:00
Speaker 1: you would do it, and it would not be that.
27:01
Speaker 3: Hard, so Trump very deliberately has not done that. The
27:07
Speaker 3: reason he said power plants and bridges is because they're
27:11
Speaker 3: critically important to the economy. You take out the power plants,
27:13
Speaker 3: the electricity turns off. The military is crippled, but also
27:17
Speaker 3: the economy is crippled, the basic all of banking, all
27:19
Speaker 3: of communication. Lights Literally at night people start lighting candles
27:23
Speaker 3: because there's no longer the light switches don't work. And
27:27
Speaker 3: bridges are essential for transportation, both military and commercial transportation
27:33
Speaker 3: across the country. I think the reason he picked those
27:36
Speaker 3: two is their enormous lever points and his hope is
27:40
Speaker 3: that it would cause the collapse of this regime, I believe.
27:45
Speaker 3: But also it means if there were a new government
27:47
Speaker 3: in Iran, the oil facilities would still be there, so
27:51
Speaker 3: they have the ability to generate billions in revenue pretty quickly,
27:55
Speaker 3: and that billions. If the United States military took out
27:58
Speaker 3: the power infrastructure, if you had billions in oil revenue
28:01
Speaker 3: coming in, you could rebuild. It wouldn't be immediate, but
28:05
Speaker 3: having the revenue stream makes rebuilding much more possible than
28:09
Speaker 3: if you take out the oil infrastructure. The revenue stream
28:13
Speaker 3: is much further down the road. And it's much harder
28:16
Speaker 3: to turn around. I think that's why I picked it.
28:18
Speaker 3: But I will say we're getting a lot of pompous
28:21
Speaker 3: Democrats and pompous news reporters, although I repeat myself on
28:26
Speaker 3: TV saying taking out civilian power plants is a war crime.
28:32
Speaker 2: Well, let me read to you.
28:35
Speaker 3: From the Pentagon's Law of War manuals. So the Pentagon
28:38
Speaker 3: has a manual on the law of war. Here's what
28:40
Speaker 3: it says. Quote, electric power stations are generally recognized to
28:46
Speaker 3: be of sufficient importance to a state's capacity to meet
28:50
Speaker 3: its wartime needs of communication, transport, and industry, so as
28:56
Speaker 3: usually to qualify as military objectives during armed conflicts. And
29:03
Speaker 3: and by the way, the broader section which I will
29:06
Speaker 3: read from you, this is in section five point six
29:10
Speaker 3: point eight point five Examples of military objectives economic objects
29:15
Speaker 3: associated with military operations, And it says before what I
29:19
Speaker 3: just read, economic objects associated with military operations are with
29:23
Speaker 3: war supporting or war sustaining industries have been regarded as
29:28
Speaker 3: military objectives. That is incredibly inconvenient for all of the
29:36
Speaker 3: Trump haters in the Democrat Party or in the media
29:39
Speaker 3: who want to scream war crime, war crime, war crime,
29:41
Speaker 3: because there's no doubt the power generation is integral to
29:46
Speaker 3: the war fighting ability of Iran and and and listen.
29:50
Speaker 3: I will say the fact that Pakistan stepped in it
29:53
Speaker 3: actually goes to what we said on Monday's podcast, which
29:57
Speaker 3: is Trump's threat within any ordinary and rational leader would
30:02
Speaker 3: be incredibly effective. If you actually had a leader that
30:05
Speaker 3: gave a damn about their people, that gave a damn
30:07
Speaker 3: about their economy, that threat would be Holy cow. We
30:10
Speaker 3: can't let that happen. The risk factor is the very
30:14
Speaker 3: real possibility that the I told in the Malas just
30:17
Speaker 3: don't care that they're willing to see that kind of
30:19
Speaker 3: devastation to their country. I will say Pakistan, Pakistan is
30:26
Speaker 3: I've long described Pakistan as a problematic ally. They are
30:30
Speaker 3: an ally, but there are challenges in Pakistan. I actually
30:34
Speaker 3: put Pakistan.
30:35
Speaker 2: It's a very diplomatic way of putting that.
30:37
Speaker 3: Yes, but you know what, they're an ally rather than
30:39
Speaker 3: a friend. But there are real challenges. We work with Pakistan.
30:42
Speaker 3: There are a lot of bad people or enemies of
30:44
Speaker 3: America that are within Pakistan, but we work with the
30:47
Speaker 3: government of Pakistan. And I think the Prime Minister of
30:51
Speaker 3: Pakistan stepped up and said Hey, look, you guys in Iran,
30:55
Speaker 3: don't go down this road and end up crippling. Don't
30:59
Speaker 3: go back to the dark euges. And this goes back
31:03
Speaker 3: to where Pakistan may have some credibility with Iran. I
31:07
Speaker 3: don't know if Pakistan provided Iran something of an off
31:11
Speaker 3: ramp that that's a good interpretation, or if Iran's just
31:14
Speaker 3: seizing on this to delay that's another interpretation that is possible.
31:18
Speaker 3: But I do think Pakistan stepping forward and saying let's
31:23
Speaker 3: have a two week cease fire is an example of
31:26
Speaker 3: a more normal country and a leader who presumably cares
31:31
Speaker 3: about his people at least to a significant extent, stepping
31:35
Speaker 3: forward to Iran and saying, come on, guys, don't keep
31:38
Speaker 3: playing chicken. This doesn't end up.
31:40
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, it's a great point, don't forget. We do
31:43
Speaker 1: this show Monday, Wednesday, Friday. You can also watch it
31:45
Speaker 1: on YouTube as well. So if you are on YouTube
31:49
Speaker 1: put in Verdict with Ted Cruise. You can watch almost
31:51
Speaker 1: every episode that we do on video there and run
31:54
Speaker 1: as a five star review if you wouldn't mind as well.
31:56
Speaker 1: That helps us reach more people and the Senate and
31:58
Speaker 1: I will see you back here on Friday morning,