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COUNTDOWN TO SIGNING—Iran Deal Nears Finish Line Amid High Stakes · The Ben Ferguson Podcast

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  Speaker 1: The strain has opened, but the straits have been opened
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  Speaker 1: for a number of months already, and you just didn't
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  Speaker 1: know about it. You know, you as reporters, weren't able
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  Speaker 1: to get it. I just announced yesterday that we're bringing that.
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  Speaker 1: We brought a lot of ships to and nobody knew
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  Speaker 1: about it. I guess we did a pretty good job,
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  Speaker 1: beater a right. But we've put many, many ships across
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  Speaker 1: and millions, hundreds of millions of barrels of oil well brought.
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  Speaker 1: We're brought across.
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  Speaker 2: You're listening to the forty seven Morning Update with Ben ferguson.
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  Speaker 3: Good Monday morning. So nice have you with us on
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  Speaker 3: the forty seven Morning Update. And well we've got two
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  Speaker 3: huge stories for you. First up, President Donald Trump announcing
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  Speaker 3: a deal with the Ran that could bring an end
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  Speaker 3: to the conflict in the Middle East, and the markets
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  Speaker 3: and the world are reacting. Plus, you guessed at crude
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  Speaker 3: oil prices dropping significantly. That means lower prices for Americans
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  Speaker 3: as fears of a never ending war are disappearing. We've
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  Speaker 3: got that for you as well. I want to take
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  Speaker 3: a quick moment and talk to you about an incredible
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  Speaker 3: It's the forty seven Morning Update, and it starts right now.
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  Speaker 2: Story number one.
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  Speaker 3: It is news that the President has been talking about
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  Speaker 3: and telegraphing for quite some time. So here it is
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  Speaker 3: President Trump. The deal is scheduled to get signed. That
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  Speaker 3: is the headline President Trump announcing over the weekend at
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  Speaker 3: a peace agreement between the United States and Iran has
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  Speaker 3: effectively been completed and now is awaiting formal signatures. In
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  Speaker 3: a true social post, President Trump said the deal is
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  Speaker 3: scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed,
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  Speaker 3: the Hormez Strait is open to all now. Trump later
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  Speaker 3: stated that the agreement with Iran was now complete and
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  Speaker 3: announced the US naval bockade would end as part of
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  Speaker 3: the arrangement. Senior administration officials of indicated they believe the
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  Speaker 3: deal is highly likely to be finalized early this week.
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  Speaker 3: White House officials reportedly said they were approximately eighty five
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  Speaker 3: percent confident of an agreement that would be signed, stressing
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  Speaker 3: that any sanctions relief for economic benefits for Ran would
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  Speaker 3: be tied to compliance with the terms of the agreement.
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  Speaker 3: The administration has repeatedly emphasized that the deal is quote
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  Speaker 3: performance base, meaning Iran must fulfill its obligations before receiving
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  Speaker 3: significant economic concessions. Now, President Trump's key message on Iran
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  Speaker 3: has been very simple. He's repeatedly argued that the objective
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  Speaker 3: is also basic. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. According
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  Speaker 3: to reports early Sunday, Trump said Iran no longer wants
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  Speaker 3: a nuclear weapon and express confidence that the agreement would
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  Speaker 3: ensure Tehran does not pursue one in the future.
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  Speaker 2: Now.
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  Speaker 3: Trump has also rejected reports about leaked Iranian versions of
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  Speaker 3: the agreement, saying, quote, the terms that Iran leaked out
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  Speaker 3: have nothing to do with the terms that were agreed
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  Speaker 3: to in writing. He further described Iranian negotiators as very
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  Speaker 3: dishonorable people for leaking what he says were inaccurate details. Now,
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  Speaker 3: what the deal appears to include that I'm being told
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  Speaker 3: is this now the full text, I want to be
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  Speaker 3: honest about. This has not been released publicly, but I've
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  Speaker 3: been told from people that I trust that in the framework,
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  Speaker 3: this is what is in there. Number One, reopening the
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  Speaker 3: straightup hour, moves to commercial shipping. We've already seen oil
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  Speaker 3: prices drop significantly on that news. Number two ending the
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  Speaker 3: US naval blockade. Number three a sixty day period of
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  Speaker 3: negotiations over RAN's nuclear program. The other issue and the
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  Speaker 3: deal is this Iranian's commitment to not pursue nuclear weapons,
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  Speaker 3: and then there are different things tied to that that
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  Speaker 3: also includes the quote potential sanctions relief, all again tied
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  Speaker 3: to verified compliance. This is literally the definition of trust
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  Speaker 3: but verified. Now, if you're looking at this from a
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  Speaker 3: big picture moment for the Trump White House, this message
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  Speaker 3: at peace through strength not only is their plan, but
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  Speaker 3: it's worked and after months a military pressure, economic pressure,
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  Speaker 3: and international negotiations, the administration is now saying this is
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  Speaker 3: a major diplomatic victory that not only could reopen one
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  Speaker 3: of the world's most important energy corridors, but also forces
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  Speaker 3: a Ran back to the negotiation table and now concession
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  Speaker 3: on their nuclear ambitions. President Trump is now betting that
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  Speaker 3: the maximum pressure that was produced and what years of
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  Speaker 3: diplomacy could not under other administrations, is that now we
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  Speaker 3: have in Iran that agrees not only to keep the
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  Speaker 3: stratiform moves open and return to the negotiating table, but
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  Speaker 3: now publicly is saying that they are not going to
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  Speaker 3: obtain a nuclear weapon. The administration is now saying the
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  Speaker 3: deal is done quote unquote, and now the world's going
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  Speaker 3: to be watching to see if Tehran will actually follow through. Now,
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  Speaker 3: to be clear, Iran could lie, Iran could renig, Iran
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  Speaker 3: could not sign the deal at the last moment. All
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  Speaker 3: of these things are real options. By the way, they
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  Speaker 3: could also sign the deal, and after they signed that deal,
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  Speaker 3: something else could happen. They could well break the terms
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  Speaker 3: of the deal. There is a lot that could happen.
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  Speaker 3: There is a lot that could go wrong when you're
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  Speaker 3: dealing with a terrorist organization, and that is exactly who
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  Speaker 3: we are dealing with. There is no doubt that things
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  Speaker 3: could change. But what the President has also made clear
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  Speaker 3: is this, if they do renig on the deal, if
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  Speaker 3: they lie, if they try to cheat, if they do
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  Speaker 3: something they're not supposed to do, America will respond, and
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  Speaker 3: more than likely we will respond in a military manner.
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  Speaker 3: We will certainly re respond instantly with sanctions. We will
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  Speaker 3: respond in any way that we need to, in any
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  Speaker 3: way that we feel like we need to to protect America.
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  Speaker 3: Because this does boil down to one issue. This is
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  Speaker 3: a national security, a national defense issue. The President has
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  Speaker 3: made that abundantly clear. By the way, the same Democrats
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  Speaker 3: that are criticizing this president right now. Are the same
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  Speaker 3: Democrats that demanded that Iran not getting nuclear weapons, that
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  Speaker 3: promise to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. This is
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  Speaker 3: the same Democratic Party and the abomadministration and the Biden
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  Speaker 3: administration that said there was a red line with Iran
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  Speaker 3: getting a nuclear weapon. So if you're a liberal right
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  Speaker 3: now and you're angry over what the president just pulled off,
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  Speaker 3: you're then actually really angry with the same foreign policy
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  Speaker 3: that the Democratic Party promised you, promised you that they
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  Speaker 3: were going to follow through on, and they did not
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  Speaker 3: do it. So here we are inching closer, many would argue,
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  Speaker 3: much closer to a real nuclear deal, a real deal
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  Speaker 3: that keeps America safe and honestly the rest of the world.
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  Speaker 3: Are there things that could change, Yes, But if you
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  Speaker 3: want a real headline right now, here's what I would write.
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  Speaker 3: The Iran War is over. A deal has been reached
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  Speaker 3: between the US and Iran. President Trump is urging the
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  Speaker 3: ships of the world to start your engines because the
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  Speaker 3: Strait of Hormuz opens on Friday. President Trump yet again
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  Speaker 3: confirming not just the US but to the world that
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  Speaker 3: the peace deal with Iran is complete and most importantly,
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  Speaker 3: adding that the Strait of Ramuz was reopening and that
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  Speaker 3: the US Navy blockade of the strait would come to
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  Speaker 3: an end. This is a victory that every American should
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  Speaker 3: celebrate and many around the world should celebrate. And as
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  Speaker 3: a victory the President, by the way, gave us on
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  Speaker 3: his birthday weekend as he turned eighty years old. The
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  Speaker 3: Vice President JD. Van saying this Iran deal will transform
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  Speaker 3: the Middle East and ensure that Tehran will never ever
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  Speaker 3: have a nuclear weapon. By the way, world leaders are
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  Speaker 3: also praising President Trump at this hour, saying it is
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  Speaker 3: hugely important the Iranian peace deal. And what's happening with
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  Speaker 3: crude oil, Well, at this moment, as I'm recording this,
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  Speaker 3: crude has fallen to the lowest price since March the fifth,
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  Speaker 3: on the Iran war ending. Something else that the President
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  Speaker 3: of the United States of America you promised would happen. Now,
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  Speaker 3: this is good news as well going into the midterm elections.
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  Speaker 3: And make no mistake about it, President was looking at
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  Speaker 3: that calendar just like every other candidate that was on
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  Speaker 3: the ballot.
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  Speaker 2: Now, story number two.
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  Speaker 3: There's a second part of this story. And for months,
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  Speaker 3: the so called experts have told Americans to brace for
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  Speaker 3: skyrocketing energy prices and then skyrocketing inflation, and then massive
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  Speaker 3: economic pain because of the tensions with the RAN, and
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  Speaker 3: then the uncertainty in the Middle East. Instead, what happened.
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  Speaker 3: President Donald Trump annown said the deal had been reached
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  Speaker 3: with the RAN and that meant the sort of news
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  Speaker 3: would reopen, And almost immediately, the markets responded with exactly
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  Speaker 3: what the present predicted weeks and months ago. It was
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  Speaker 3: a message that was impossible to ignore, even if you're
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  Speaker 3: crazy lefty. Oil prices immediately dropped. Crude oil. As I'm recording,
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  Speaker 3: this has fallen sharply after the announcement, wiping out much
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  Speaker 3: of the quote unquote war premium the traders had built
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  Speaker 3: into the market. Investors now saw a world where old
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  Speaker 3: shipments could move freely again, and more importantly, where fears
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  Speaker 3: of a prolonged regional conflict or reduce, and that meant
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  Speaker 3: that energy supplies would then remain stable once again. President
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  Speaker 3: Donald Trump was right. Throughout all the negotiations. Trump argued
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  Speaker 3: that peacers strength would work. He insisted that maximum pressure
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  Speaker 3: on Iran would force its leaders to the table and
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  Speaker 3: ultimately it would produce a better outcome than endless conflict. Critics,
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  Speaker 3: of course, they mocked the approach. They predict a disaster.
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  Speaker 3: They warned that oil prices would soar and that American
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  Speaker 3: consumers would be left paying the price indefinitely. Instead, yet
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  Speaker 3: again the opposite is happening. It's exactly what the President said.
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  Speaker 3: It would be temporarily and the pain would be worth
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  Speaker 3: it because we wouldn't have what could happen with a
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  Speaker 3: nuclear irant. Now, the moment confidence actually returned was the
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  Speaker 3: moment that shipping lanes were announced they would also remain open,
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  Speaker 3: and then energy supplies would continue flowing. And now trade
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  Speaker 3: are selling. Oil markets are forward looking. They don't trade
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  Speaker 3: on politics. They trade on what their expectations are. And
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  Speaker 3: the expectation now is that the risk of a major
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  Speaker 3: disruption and global oil surprise has again fallen dramatically. That's
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  Speaker 3: not politics, that's oil economics. And this all matters because yes,
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  Speaker 3: oil impacts almost everything Americans purchase and really the world.
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  Speaker 3: And when oil prices rise, transportation costs rise, shipping costs rise,
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  Speaker 3: manufacturing costs rise, food prices rise, airline tickets become more expensive,
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  Speaker 3: and inflation. You guessed it gets a lot worse. But
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  Speaker 3: what President Trump said is this was temporary, and when
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  Speaker 3: the oil prices fall, the opposite thing happens. Lower oil
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  Speaker 3: prices create downward pressure on gasoline prices, and they help
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  Speaker 3: businesses control costs, and they reduce inflationary pressure throughout the
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  Speaker 3: entire economy, and they put more money back into the
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  Speaker 3: pockets of you guessed it, hardware Americans. This is why
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  Speaker 3: the energy markets matter so much. And just to remember,
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  Speaker 3: it was a very short time ago there were warnings
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  Speaker 3: that crude ol could spike well above one hundred dollars
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  Speaker 3: per barrel if the tensions escalated. Some analysts were predicting
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  Speaker 3: a major shock to the global economy. At the stratiform
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  Speaker 3: moves remained threatened at all, nearly one fifth of the
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  Speaker 3: world's all supply moves through that narrow waterway. But because
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  Speaker 3: now Trump has announced the deal, and because the markets
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  Speaker 3: react to actual facts, not politics, they believe a deal
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  Speaker 3: has been reached and the shipping routes will remain open,
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  Speaker 3: And now that means their fears are fading, and that
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  Speaker 3: means the prices are falling. For the Trump administration, this
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  Speaker 3: is more than just an energy story. It's also a
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  Speaker 3: validation of a broader argument the present made for years
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  Speaker 3: that strong American leadership creates economic certainty instead of uncertainty.
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  Speaker 3: Trump has repeatedly said that lower energy costs lea to
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  Speaker 3: lower inflation, stronger economic growth, and a more affordable cost
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  Speaker 3: of living. He also said long time ago, that's why
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  Speaker 3: we must be energy independent aka drill, baby drill, And
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  Speaker 3: that's why many of US supporters argue that the market
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  Speaker 3: reaction that we're seeing right now is proof that that
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  Speaker 3: is principal in action. Now, the test is going to
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  Speaker 3: come in the weeks and months ahead. Let's be clear.
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  Speaker 3: The details of the agreement, yes, they matter most importantly.
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  Speaker 3: Iran's compliance matters, and that means the issue of stability
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  Speaker 3: in the region is also extremely important. But right now,
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  Speaker 3: the market's initial verdict is clear. The announcement is a
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  Speaker 3: deal with a RAN and it didn't send the old
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  Speaker 3: prices soaring. It sent them following by more than five percent.
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  Speaker 3: And what does that mean for millions of Americans who
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  Speaker 3: have spent years battling higher prices the gas pump under
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  Speaker 3: previous administrations, by the way, that did it on purpose
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  Speaker 3: to force you into green, alternative energy. Well gas prices
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  Speaker 3: grocery store prices and everything in between. They're going to
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  Speaker 3: come falling down, which brings me to my final point.
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  Speaker 3: Once again, President Donald Trump is pointing to the scoreboard
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  Speaker 3: and saying exactly what he said along. When peace, stability
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  Speaker 3: and American strength returned to the equation, prices come down,
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  Speaker 3: and the American economy, well, that's what wins. And what
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  Speaker 3: does that mean. It means the American worker wins, it
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  Speaker 3: means the retiree wins. It means that the small business
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  Speaker 3: owner wins. And that's what we're seeing right now.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you for listening to the forty seven Morning Update
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  Speaker 2: with Ben Ferguson. Please make sure you hit subscribe wherever
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  Speaker 2: you're listening to this podcast right now and for more
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  Speaker 2: and we will see you back here tomorrow