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Bonus Pod: WHY New Hampshire Matters...and Iowa...and South Carolina · The Ben Ferguson Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Senator Cruz and I set down and did a really
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: really fun discussion about Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina moving
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: into Super Tuesday, especially with Ron De Santis dropping out.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: So what does history have to say about those states
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: picking who's going to actually be the president? And what
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: does it look like now moving forward with Donald Trump
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: against Nikki Haley. Here is our deep dive, especially as
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: you're getting ready to see what happens in New Hampshire.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: It's verdict with Senator Ted Cruz.
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: You know, I think it's interesting if you look at
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: the history of the primaries, and I want to do
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a deep dive into these early
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: state primaries the role that they have played. And so
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: let's start with Iowa and the Iowa caucuses have played
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: a very significant role. Let's start on the Democrat side
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: and go back to nineteen seventy six. Nineteen seventy six,
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: the Democrat winner of the Iowa caucus. Do you know
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: who it was?
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I don't.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: It was the governor of Georgia, an unknown candidate by
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: the name of Jimmy Carter. Really, Iowa caucus is basically
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: propelled Jimmy Carter to become president of the United States,
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: and he went and he worked it. He worked it
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: on the ground their ninety nine counties in Iowa. He
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: went and did grassroots events after grassroots event, and Jimmy
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: Carter's victory in the Iowa caucus was pivotal. Without that,
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: he doesn't become president. You then look nineteen eighty four,
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: So nineteen eighty Carter's the incumbents of the caucus doesn't matter.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: Eighty four is the next open presidential race. The winner
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: of it was Walter Mondale forty nine percent. So Mondale,
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: Jimmy Carter's VP wins a big victory in the Iowa caucus,
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: goes on to be the nominee and lose the general election.
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: Nineteen eighty eight, the winner of the Iowa caucus was
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Dick Geppart.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Now over to caucus.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: Dick Gephart got thirty one percent, Paul Simon got twenty
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: seven percent, Michael Decaccus got twenty two percent. Now tight. Now,
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: remember you know Geppart was from Missouri. Missouri is not
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: that far from Iowa, so there was a midwestern Iowa
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: has historically given some additional credence to midwesterners, and dou
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: caucus was from Massachusetts. So it was it was a
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: hard match. And so that was one where the winner
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: did not win the nomination. Nineteen ninety two. Who won
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: the Democrat Iowa caucus in ninety.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Two, I'm gonna guess was it Bill Clinton?
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: Now?
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Okay, who was it?
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: In fact, Bill Clinton got three percent?
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Really he got crushed.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: The winner was Tom Harkin. Yeah, So Iowa didn't really
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: matter because Harkin was a home state hero. And so
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: it basically Iowa was written off in ninety two. Two thousand,
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: what Democrat won? Al Gore he got sixty three percent.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: He beat Bill Bradley by thirty seven percent. So in
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: two thousand, the Iowa caucas winner won the Democrat nomination.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: Two thousand and four, John Kerry won. He got thirty
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: eight percent, beat John Edwards with thirty two percent.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and that was a tight race.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: That was a tight race, and Carrie obviously went on
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: to win the nomination lose the general. Two thousand and eight,
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: the winner Barack Obama. Yep, Barack Obama won with thirty
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: eight percent. He beat John Edwards. Hillary was third in Iowa.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: Twenty sixteen, Hillary Clinton wins the Iowa caucus, but with
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: fifty percent to Bernie's forty nine and it was a
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: neck and neck photo finished.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: So I remember that night. That was an incredible night
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: because no one had a clue what was going to happen,
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: and it was. It was a dog fight in that
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Democratic primary like we hadn't seen in modern political history.
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: It was, and it was, it was neck and neck.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: And then two thousand, remember the Iowa Democrat caucus was
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: a mess, and you had had Pete Boutage Edge and
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: Bernie Sanders both coming out with twenty six percent. All
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: right Republican side. So conventional wisdom today is Iowa is
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: more conservative and more evangelical. There's certainly a very large
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: evangelical population in Iowa. What's interesting is that Iowa has
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: not always played that role. And I'm going to tell
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: you in a minute. We moved into Hampshire. New Hampshire
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: has not always played the role of the more moderate state,
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: and so over history they've changed some. So nineteen seventy
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: six Republican primary. Who won Iowa nineteen seventy.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Six, I have no idea Gerald Ford, but.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: He beat Reagan forty five to forty three.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: So it was close.
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: It was Remember Ford is the incumbent Presidenteah. So this
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: is when Reagan is when airing the incumbent president, and
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: he comes incredibly close to beating him. But Ford, the
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: more moderate choice, narrowly wins Iowa in seventy six. All right,
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: how about nineteen eighty, so Reagan has so Reagan has
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: almost beaten forward four years earlier. So who wins Iowa
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: and eight?
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: I would assume he would have just owned it there.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: You would assume, but you would assume incorrectly. The winner
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: of Iowa nineteen eighty was George Herbert Walker Bush with
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: thirty two percent. Reagan got thirty so it's still tight.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: It was tight. But again, so that's two elections in
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: a row, seventy six and eighty the more moderate candidate
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: beat the more conservative candidate in Iowa. All right, fast
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: forward eighty four was Reagan unopposed? Eighty eight? The winner
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: of Iowa Bob Dole. Now again as a Kansas s guy,
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: the midwestern Dole had an advantage, but Iowa was consequential.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: Do you remember who took second in eighty eight in Iowa?
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Would it have been Bush?
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: Now?
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Who was it?
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: That's why it was notable? Yeah, it was Pat Robertson.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: That's right, Yeah, the Christian conservative that that was, That
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: was the evangelical. He went hard in on evangelicals and
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: it worked. So Pat Robertson got twenty five percent. What
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: was the mantra then, I'm trying to remember what was
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: the exact words it was. It was it was, oh,
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: it was something with Christian and it was the way
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: that he'd cast the vote that time, and it was
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: a huge moving block. Do you remember that, the Christian coalition?
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Christian coalition, but it was under that and there was
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: something else he said, and it was like and it
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: stuck with people. I'll think of it in a second,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: but it was big.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: So Bush forty one was was third at nineteen percent,
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: Jack Kemp with eleven percent, Pete DuPont was seven percent,
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: so that that was eighty eight all right, Fast forward
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: to ninety six. The winner of Iowa ninety six was
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: Bob dol Oh twenty six percent. So he's a Midwesterner
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: but again quite moderate. But in second place. Do you
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: remember who was second place?
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: I have no idea.
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: Pat Buchanan, yeah, twenty three percent, so almost beats Bob
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: dole Uh in Iowa that year, and that that became
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: a big, big deal, all right, two thousand? Who wins Iowa?
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Two thousand? Iowa? I'm trying to think of an underdog,
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: because it seems like they're going with the under Who
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: was it?
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: George W. Bush? Okay, big victory, big victory with evangelicals.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: Remember his dad had won it narrowly, had beaten Reagan narrowly.
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: And George W. Bush had a lot more credibility with
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: evangelicals than his dad did, and he spent a lot
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: of time I was on that campaign. Winning Iowa was
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: a big deal.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: You came in second there that year. Steve Forbes, that's right.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: So Bush wins Iowa with forty one percent. Steve Forbes
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: thirty one percent, Alan Keys fourteen percent, Gary Bauer nine percent,
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: John McCain five percent, and John McCain basically wrote Iowa.
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: He said I'm not competing there and orin Hatch one percent.
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: Two thousand and eight, next open seat. The winner of
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: Iowa was my Cuckabee.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: That's the two thousand and eight's where you started to
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: see the sort of evangelical conservative winning. So Huckabee wins
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: with thirty four percent. Mitt Romney second with twenty five percent,
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: Fred Thompson at thirteen percent, John McCain thirteen percent, Ron
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: Paul ten percent, and there was a whole libertarian thing.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: Ron Paul's ten percent was significant, Rudy Giuliani with four percent,
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: and Duncan Hunter with one percent twenty twelve. So the
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: winner in twenty twelve was Rick Santaurum with twenty five percent,
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: but he basically tied with Mitt Romney at twenty five percent.
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: Remember they didn't Claire winner.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they could figure it out, and people were frustrated
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: over that because it was like, are you cooking the
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: books here? Why are you not saying someone won well?
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: And that ended up hurting Santaurum a lot because.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: You couldn't claim victory. You want to claim victory.
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: The benefit of winning Iowa well, one of the benefits
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: typically Iowa whittles down the field. It eliminates candidates. The
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: sort of conventional wisdom is there three passes out of Iowa,
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: the top three come out, and typically the winner gets
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: a bounce. Centaorum did not get a bounce, and obviously
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: Mitt Romney ended up going on to win the nomination
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: twenty sixteen. Yours truly I got twenty eight percent in
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: Iowa won the Iowa caucus. Donald Trump got twenty four percent.
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: Rubio got twenty three percent. So Rubio almost beat Trump
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: and Iowa. That year, Ben Carson got nine percent, Ran
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: Paul five percent, Jeb Bush three percent, Carly Fiorina two percent,
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: and others seven percent between them. And then you look
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: at this year, Donald Trump fifty one percent, the Santus
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: twenty one percent. So so Trump wins by thirty points.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: So we were saying, you know, traditionally today people think
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: of New Hampshire more moderate. Well that hasn't always been
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: the case. So let's take the Democrat side. First of all,
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: Democrat side nineteen seventy six, who wins New Hampshire? Who
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: Jimmy Carter? So Jimmy Carter wins, iwin New Hampshire. He's
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: the nominee's the president. You win both. It's it's game over.
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: Mojudahl was second with twenty three percent. Jimmy Carter had
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: twenty nine percent. Nineteen eighty. No, nineteen eighty is interesting.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: Jimmy Carter is the incumbent president, but he gets a
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: very strong primary from Ted Kennedy. Carter wins, but he
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: wins New Hampshire with forty eight percent, and Ted Kennedy
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: gets thirty eight percent. Obviously Kennedy's from mass Choosetts to
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: so you have the neighboring effect. But that was and
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: Jerry Brown got ten percent in that race. Wow, eighty four?
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: Who wins an eighty four? Nineteen eighty four the Democrat primary?
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: I have no idea.
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: Gary Hart really, senator from Colorado. He gets thirty nine percent.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: Walter Mondale, the VP who goes on to be the nominee,
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: gets just twenty nine percent. All right, nineteen eighty eight.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: The winner is Michael Ducacus, the neighboring governor. He gets
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: thirty thirty six percent. Dick Geppard, who just won Iowa,
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: gets twenty percent. Nineteen ninety two. Okay, who wins New Hampshire.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Ninety Democratic side? I'm trying to remember who all was
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: in that race in ninety two? Who was it?
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: The winner is Paul Songas.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm glad, I'm actually glad I didn't know that one.
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: Thirty three percent. Second place is Bill Clinton at twenty
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: five percent. And remember look Bill Clinton and Iowa had
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: gotten three percent.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: He got crushed.
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: Name. Yeah, and then after that the whole Jennifer Flower
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: story came out, so he's getting crushed on that too.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: And Bill Clinton turned a second place finish in New Hampshire,
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: uh with twenty five percent into saying the comeback kid. Yeah,
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: that second play propelled him to the presidency. Year two
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: thousand what Democrat wins al Gore? But al Gore beats
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: beats Bill Bradley fifty forty six percent, so very close primary.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: Bill Bradley's from New Jersey, yep, So you've got the
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: northeastern thing. But it was interesting how neck and neck
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: and and New Hampshire has been pretty good at picking
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: the eight.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Year fatigue of Clinton, right, and that and that actually
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: hurt I think al Gore at the end because if
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: I remember correctly, al Gore's campaign did not utilize Bill Clinton.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: They they kind of they hid him. Yeah, they did
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: not around the.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: Game Peach, you had Monica Lewinsky. I mean they did
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: ran away.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: From Bill Clinton. Yeah.
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: You look at two thousand and four the winner of
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: New Hampshire, John Kerrey with thirty eight percent second place,
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: Howard Dean, the governor of neighboring Vermont, the famous six
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: percent two thousand and eight, who wins New Hampshire in
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: two thousand and eight in.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: The Democrats Obama or was it Clinton?
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: Hillary Clinton thirty nine? Obama gets thirty six percent, John
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Edwards seventeen, Bill Richardson five, Dennis Kucinich one percent. You
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: go to twenty sixteen, the winner of New Hampshire was
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: Bernie Sanders with sixty percent.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: I remember that, Phil the Byrne, Hillary.
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: Clinton thirty eight percent. And then in twenty twenty the
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: winner of New Hampshire again Bernie Sanders twenty six percent,
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: Pete budaj Edge twenty four, Klobuchar to twenty percent, Elizabeth
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: Warren nine percent, Joe Biden eight percent, Tom Styr four percent,
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: Tulsea Gabbard three percent, and Andrew Yang three percent.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: Go back to Joe Biden, just saying, what was that
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: number again for him?
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: Eight percent?
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: And he still became President of the United States of
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: America eight percent. Wow.
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: And we'll get to that moment because there's a lot
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: to say. All right, let's talk about Republicans in New Hampshire.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: All right, So we talked about nineteen seventy six that
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: Gerald Ford narrowly wins Iowa. But think happens in.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire seventy six, gotta be Reagan.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: So again, Jerald Ford narrowly wins New Hampshire. Ford gets
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: fifty percent, Reagan gets forty nine.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: Real, okay, so he kept the momentum all right.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: Nineteen eighty. So nineteen eighty remember who won on the
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: in Iowa. That was George Herbert walker Bush. We get
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: to New Hampshire, did Reagan pull that one off? Reagan
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: wins New Hampshire with fifty percent of the vote, George
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: Herbert walker Bush twenty three percent.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: So that's when it flipped and the campaign got in.
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: And by the way, remember the sort of popular narrative
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: today of New Hampshire's more moderate Will you look at
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: that cycle? It was the more moderate candidate one Iowa
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: and the more conservative candidate won New Hampshire. Now that
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: was also Reagan had a singular breakout moment where he's
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: in the middle of the debate, a debate that ultimately
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: he had paid for, and the moderator. There was a debate.
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: There was an argument about whether additional candidates who hadn't
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: made the debate stage should be allowed to debate, and
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: Reagan wanted them to, and the moderator tried to say
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: no and said turn off Reagan's microphone. And Reagan leans
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: forward famously and says, mister Breen, I paid for this microphone,
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: and it was seen at the time as a level
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: of presidential leadership. Yeah, and he had, in fact paid
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: for the microphone. Was he was funding the whole debate?
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: All right? Fast forward to eighty eight. Who wins in
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: eighty eight It's got to be Bush, George Herbert Walker
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: Bush thirty eight percent, Bob Dole twenty eight percent. And
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: so New Hampshire. One of the interesting patterns about New Hampshire,
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: it's a state that has tended to reward runner ups.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: So remember New Hampshire gave gave it to Reagan over
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: Bush forty one and then eight years later gives it
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: to Bush forty one over Bob Dole. All Right, you
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: go from there to nineteen ninety six, Who wins New
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: Hampshire Night ninety six?
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Ninety six? New Hampshire has gotta be It's got it?
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: Is it Bush?
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: Nope?
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Who is it?
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: Pat Buchanan? Okay, Buchanan wins New Hampshire twenty seven percent,
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: Bob Dole twenty six percent. Lamar Alexander twenty three percent,
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: Steve Forbes twelve percent, Dick Luger five percent, Allen Keys
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: three percent, Morey Taylor one percent.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: Oh ninety six got okay?
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: Two thousand? Who wins New Hampshire in two thousand?
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: So two thousand, that's why I was. I thought you
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: said so Bush. I would have said Bush that in
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: two thousand.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: Nope, two thousand. I remember I was on this campaign.
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: I remember well. Bush had just won Iowa decisively. John
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: McCain wins New Hampshire forty nine percent to George W.
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: Bush's thirty percent, Steve Forbes thirteen percent, Allen Keys six percent. Now,
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: I gotta say that it was a nineteen point victory.
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: Kicked our teeth in the best thing that ever happened
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: to the Bush two thousand campaign, because the campaign in
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: Austin at times would get over confident and run entitled
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: and be afraid to run hard, and after Iowa, all
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: of those instincts were in full display. Getting our teeth
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: kicked in in New Hampshire in two thousand made the
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: campaign actually get out in fight, and it made it ultimately. Ironically,
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: losing New Hampshire helped propel Bush forty three on to win.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: Two thousand and eight, the winner of New Hampshire.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: John McKay John mckainn again again.
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: Thirty seven percent, Mitt Romney thirty two percent, So he's
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: in second huckyby eleven percent. So Huckeby's won Iowa gets
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: crushed in New Hampshire. Rudy Giuliani eight percent, Ron Paul
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: eight percent, Fred Thompson one percent. Twenty twelve, the winner
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: of New Hampshire Mitt Romney. Yeah, he was second four
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: years earlier, and there's a pattern. New Hampshire tends to
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: like people who were second in the previous cycle. Mitt
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: Romney thirty nine percent, Ron Paul twenty three percent, John
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: Huntsman seventeen, Rick Santorum, who had just won Iowa nine percent,
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: newt Gingrich nine percent, and then twenty sixteen, Donald Trump,
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: with a big victory thirty five percent, So he loses
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: Iowa goes on to win New Hampshire. New Hampshire played
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: a pivotal part in electing Trump. The first time Kasik
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: was second, i was third in New Hampshire, so Trump
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: won a significant victory. Now we see in modern times,
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: New Hampshire tends not to like the winner of the
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: Iowa Caucuses.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: It's almost like they want to say, hold on, we
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: start it here, and we're our own people, we're our
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: own place.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: And look, part of the reason is as the Iowa
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: Caucasus has gotten more evangelical, New Hampshire is not a
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: very evangelical state. There's just not a large evangelical population there.
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: It's kind of flinty New Englander. There is a there's
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: a libertarian streak in New Hampshire that's really significant. Ron
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: Paul has done well over the years. My supporters in
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: New Hampshire had a lot of Libertarians who were backing
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: me in New Hampshire. But it's a very different state.
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: And there's also a populis strain. And so understand it's
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: not there is one the sort of faith and religiosity,
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: the sort of evangelical question. There's secondly the ideological conservative
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: versus moderate. But there's thirdly the populist And remember New
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: Hampshire's a state that Pat Buchanan won, and Pat Buchanan
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: in many ways and then Ross Perot there is a
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: foundation for Donald Trump in the Pat Buchanan and Ross
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: Perot campaigns of the populist and so New Hampshire combines
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: all of those and the reason Trump in sixteen did
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: so well in New Hampshire as he tapped into that
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: same pat bu Cannon Ross pro populis movement in New Hampshire.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: All right, Third state South Carolina, because the three with
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: some frequency, those three states pick the president all right,
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: Democrat side. Nineteen eighty eight, the winner of the Democrat
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: caucus Jesse Jackson fifty five percent, Al Gore seventeen percent,
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: Do Caucus six percent, get Part two percent. So ducaucas
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: goes on to win, but he gets crushed in South Carolina. Now,
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: the primary vote in South Carolina on the Democrat side
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: is very heavily African American. Yeah, so Jesse Jackson wins
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: a big, big victory, but it doesn't decide the winner
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: that year. Nineteen ninety two, the winner of South Carolina
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: Bill Clinton Bill Clinton with sixty three percent. Paul Songas,
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: who had just won New Hampshire, gets eighteen percent, Tom
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: Harkins seven percent, and Jerry Brown six percent. So Bill
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: Clinton's second place in New Hampshire the Comeback Kids sets
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: him up for a stunning victory in South Carolina that
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: ends up giving him the nomination and ultimately electing him president.
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: Two thousand, Al Gore with ninety two percent. So Gore
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: in the southern Bill Bradley gets two percent, So it's
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: just a southern southern thing. Two thousand and four. Who
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: won South Carolina? In two thousand and four the Democrat primary?
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: I have no idea. Who was it?
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: John Edwards?
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Oh, that's yeah, that's right.
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: He was from North Carolina. He was a neighbor forty
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: six percent, John Carey thirty percent, Al Sharpton ten percent,
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: Wesley Clark seven percent, Howard Dean five percent, Joe Leeberman
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: two percent.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: I remember that changed Super Tuesday, and there was a
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: lot of questions about Super Tuesday. Who was going to
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: do well after Edwards did so well?
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Two thousand and eight, the winner of South Carolina
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: Barack Obama. Z oh for the Democrats. Obama wins Iowa,
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: South Carolina, Hillary wins New Hampshire. Obama ends up winning
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: twenty sixteen. Who wins South Carolina?
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: Who was it?
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: Hillary Clinton was seventy three percent? Bernie Sanders just twenty
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: six percent, So Bernie did great, had won New Hampshire,
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: was in a dominant position South Carolina.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: Boom, Welcome to reality right.
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: Twenty twenty the winner of South Carolina?
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Who was it?
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden forty eight percent, Bernie Sanders twenty percent. Interesting,
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: So understand in twenty twenty Bernie had won Iowa and
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: New Hampshire. Yeah, and then South Carolina came in and
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: the African American vote rallied. Bernie has had trouble getting
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: the African American vote historically, And for the Democrats South Carolina,
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: they circled the wagons and elected Joe Biden. South Carolina's
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: got a long history of it, all right, How about
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: nineteen eighty Republican side?
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: Who was it? Was it? Reagan?
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: Who wins South Carolina?
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: Reagan?
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: Reagan? Okay, generally speaking, if you win two of the
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: first three, you're the guy you're gonna be the nominee.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: So Reagan that cycle in nineteen eighty lost Iowa, but
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: then won New Hampshire in South Carolina nineteen eighty eight.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: Who wins South Carolina?
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: Eighty eight?
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: Was a Bush Bush forty one with forty nine percent.
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: And by the way, eighty Reagan wins South Carolina fifty
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: five percent, John Connolly thirty percent, George Herbert Walker Bush
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: fifteen percent. So he had a huge letdown that year. Yeah,
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: go back to eighty eight. We're Bush forty one is
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: Reagan's VP? He wins with forty nine percent, Bob Dole
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: twenty one percent, Pat Robertson nineteen percent, Jack Kempell eleven.
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: So again, South Carolina pivotally elects elects forty one as
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: president or is pivotal in that? All? Right? Ninety six?
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: Who wins the Republican.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Primary ninety six? Who was it?
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: Bob Dole forty five percent, Pat Buchanan twenty nine percent,
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: Steve Forbes thirteen percent, Lamar Alexander ten percent, Alan Keys
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: two percent. Two thousand? Who wins South Carolina?
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: Had him been Bush?
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: George W. Bush fifty three percent, John McGain forty two percent,
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: Alan Keyes five percent. So Bush wins Iowa? This is
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: in two thousand, gets crushed in New Hampshire and comes
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: back and wins South Carolina, goes on to win the
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: nomination get elected president. There is often a connection between
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: Iowa and South Carolina. They are more conservative generally speaking,
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: they're more evangelical generally speaking, although Iowa was a lot
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: more evangelical than the South Carolina. But there are similarities
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: between the two two thousand and eight, the winner of
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: South Carolina?
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: Who was it?
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: John McCain thirty three percent, huw could be thirty percent, So.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: So how Coyby was still hanging around.
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: Remember Huckabee had won Iowa. Yeah, loses New Hampshire and
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: then South Carolina decides it thirty three percent to thirty percent.
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: That was neck and neck. And by the way, third
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: place was Fred Thompson at sixteen percent.
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: And he really went all in in that state, if
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: I remember correctly, he spent a lot of time there,
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: in a lot of money he did.
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: Met Romney fifteen percent, Ron Paul four percent, Rudy Giuliani
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: two percent. Twenty twelve, Newt Gingrich at forty percent, he wins,
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: met Romney at twenty eight percent, Sentaorum seventeen percent, Ron
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: Paul thirteen So Santorum ad one. Iowa didn't get the bounce,
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: and Gingrich comes along and steals South Carolina makes a
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: hard push, but then Romney ultimately wins later. So that
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: was that was the year where it didn't play according
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: to type was twenty twelve, twenty sixteen. Trump wins South
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: Carolina thirty three percent and Rubio and I basically tie.
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: He takes twenty two percent. I take twenty two percent.
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: He beats me by like seventeen hundred votes. It was,
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: it was less than two thousand votes.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: I hope you enjoyed our special conversation of really inside
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: politics on what happens in these primary states. Don't forget
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: Sender Cruise, and I will be back with you Wednesday
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: morning with all of our reaction to what happened in
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: the primary in New Hampshire. Plus make sure you hit
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: that subscribe or auto download button wherever you're listening to
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: this podcast and the Senate, and I will see you
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: back here tomorrow morning.