The Brutal Problem of AI Wargame Evaluation

Logosofia no Dia a Dia · Apr 9, 2026 · 27m

AI wargame simulations are moving from research labs into real policy planning, but how do we know they actually work? This episode explores the brutal evaluation problem: when simulating future crises, there's no ground truth to compare against. We walk through five candidate methodologies—backtesting, inter-run consistency, expert red-teaming, predictive calibration, and process validity—and reveal why most published projects skip rigorous evaluation entirely. From temporal contamination in historical simulations to the eloquence trap in expert reviews, discover why this is the field's…