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Iran Plays Chicken with the World—And Swerves · The Ben Ferguson Podcast

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  Speaker 1: Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif and Field
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  Speaker 1: Marshall ac Manuir of Pakistan and wherein they requested that
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran.
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  Speaker 1: He was extremely serious in my conversation with him just now,
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  Speaker 1: and he was also cautiously but seriously optimistic.
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  Speaker 2: You're listening to the forty seven Morning Update with Ben ferguson.
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  Speaker 3: Good Wednesday morning.
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  Speaker 4: Nice to have you with us on the forty seven
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  Speaker 4: Morning Update, and we've obviously got one very big story today,
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  Speaker 4: a last minute pivot from war to a ceasefire. It
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  Speaker 4: was one of the most dramatic eleventh hour decisions of
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  Speaker 4: President Trump's presidency, and it pulled the world back from
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  Speaker 4: the brink of a potentially catastrophic escalation for a ran.
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  Speaker 3: So what happens next, We have it all for you,
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  Speaker 3: But first.
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  Speaker 4: I want to take a moment and talk to you
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  Speaker 4: about what you can do to help the people in
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  Speaker 4: Israel right now who are literally under fire as we speak,
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  Speaker 4: taking rockets even as the ceasefire has been announced, and
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  Speaker 4: my friends at IFCJ they need your help right now
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: like never before. I want to take a moment and
• 1:11
  Speaker 4: talk to you about a man named Phineas who has
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: a child survived the Holocaust. Phineas survived because Christians hid
• 1:20
  Speaker 4: him from the Nazis, risking everything to save his life. Today,
• 1:25
  Speaker 4: he is in his eighties. He can no longer stand
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  Speaker 4: on his own or leave his home to receive medical care,
• 1:32
  Speaker 4: and when the siren sounds and the missiles fall, he
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: doesn't have time or the strength to reach safety. But
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: once again, Christians are helping save his life. Through the
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: International Fellowship of Christians and Jews, a mobile clinic brings
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: doctors and medicine right inside of his home, providing care
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: he wouldn't receive, especially in wartime. Christians saved my life
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: during the Holocaust, he said, and now again their help me.
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  Speaker 4: So as Israel's Holocaust Remembrance Day approaches, we honor survivors
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  Speaker 4: like Phineas, not just with words, but with action. Give
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  Speaker 4: forty five dollars right now and you can rush life
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  Speaker 4: saving essentials to the vulnerable in Israel under fire eight
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  Speaker 4: at eight four eight eight IFCJ. That's eight eight eight
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  Speaker 4: four eight eight IFCJ, or go online to IFCJ dot org.
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  Speaker 4: That's if CJ dot org. It's a forty seven morning
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  Speaker 4: update and it starts right now.
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  Speaker 3: Story number one.
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  Speaker 4: A Ran has agreed to an immediate opening of the
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  Speaker 4: Strait of hor Moves. This is now what is being
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  Speaker 4: described by President Trump as a two week double sided ceasefire.
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  Speaker 4: And it happened just minutes before the President was seeing
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  Speaker 4: the military end to do exactly what he promised. Now
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  Speaker 4: for weeks, the world has been watching at a ticking clock.
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  Speaker 4: Trumpet issued that stark ultimatum reopen the Straight of hor
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  Speaker 4: Moves or face devastating US strikes targeting Iran's infrastructure. The
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  Speaker 4: deadline was not symbolic. US military assets were already positioned
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  Speaker 4: and officials had signaled that a large scale operation was imminent.
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  Speaker 4: And then with less than two hours ago, everything changed.
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  Speaker 4: Why the Straight of hor Moves matters is a question
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  Speaker 4: many of you may be asking, And to understand the
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  Speaker 4: magnitude of this moment, you have to understand the strategic
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  Speaker 4: choke point at the center of all of this. Now,
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  Speaker 4: this narrow waterway is not just another shipping lane. It
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  Speaker 4: is the artery of the global energy system. Roughly twenty
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  Speaker 4: percent of the world's oil supply flows through it daily.
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  Speaker 4: At the height of the crisis, traffic dropped to nearly zero,
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  Speaker 4: oil prices surge past one hundred dollars a barrel, triggering
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  Speaker 4: global economic shock waves. When I Ran effectively shut down
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  Speaker 4: the Straight during the war, it didn't just challenge the
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  Speaker 4: United States of America. It shook the entire global economy,
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  Speaker 4: sending energy prices soaring and forcing ships to reroute or
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  Speaker 4: halt entirely. And this just wasn't a military standoff. It
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  Speaker 4: was clearly economic warfare by Iran on a global scale.
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  Speaker 4: The ceasefire deal is what could change all of this,
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  Speaker 4: and the breakthrough were being told came through back channel diplomacy,
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  Speaker 4: largely broker by Pakistan, which stepped in at the last
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  Speaker 4: minute to mediate between Washington and Tehran. Now Here is
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  Speaker 4: what the deal includes. Iran agrees to fully reopen the
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  Speaker 4: Strait of Hormuz, allowing safe passage for global shipping, the
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  Speaker 4: most critical condition demanded by President Trump. Then a two
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  Speaker 4: week mutual ceasefire. Both sides agreed to halt their military operations,
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  Speaker 4: Trump calling it a double sided cease fire, and then
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  Speaker 4: a pause on US military strikes, Trumps suspending plant attacks
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  Speaker 4: that have been described earlier in the day as potentially
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  Speaker 4: devastating to Iran's infrastructure. Specifically, they're electrical grid and bridges
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  Speaker 4: that are very important in Iran. The other part about
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  Speaker 4: this is, well, this possibility of a path to a
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  Speaker 4: larger piece deal. Negotiations are expected to begin in Islamabad
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  Speaker 4: built around a ten point iranium proposal that could shape
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  Speaker 4: a longer term agreement in theory. Now, the other question
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  Speaker 4: you may be asking yourself is why did President Trump
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  Speaker 4: make this move? Well, Trump framed that decision not as
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  Speaker 4: a retreat, but as leverage paying off. Here's exactly how
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  Speaker 4: Fox News announced it on Laura Ingram's show, Take a Listen.
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  Speaker 1: We start tonight with a very big Fox News alert.
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  Speaker 1: The deadline is off and we have what's being called
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  Speaker 1: a double sided ceasefire, a live report from the region
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  Speaker 1: in moments. Now, I want to tell you how we
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  Speaker 1: were scheduled to start the show. I spent all afternoon writing.
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  Speaker 1: The script started like this TikTok t minus fifty nine
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  Speaker 1: minutes thirty seconds until Donald Trump's eight pm deadline for
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  Speaker 1: Iran to reopen the Strait of Horn moves. But just
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  Speaker 1: moments ago, Donald Trump posted this and it's the entire truth.
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  Speaker 1: Social post where essentially, he says based on conversations with
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  Speaker 1: Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif and Field Marshal ac Manuur of
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  Speaker 1: Pakistan and wherein they requested that I hold off the
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  Speaker 1: destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and it continues
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  Speaker 1: to go on and on. And I just got off
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  Speaker 1: the phone with President Trump and I will say this,
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  Speaker 1: We'll read the whole post later. He literally just had
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  Speaker 1: to rewrite the whole show. He was extremely serious in
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  Speaker 1: my conversation with him just now, and he was also
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  Speaker 1: cautiously but seriously optimistic. He told me that the negotiations
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  Speaker 1: are and were incredibly complex. He does not want them jeopardized.
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  Speaker 1: There still needs to be an announced agreement. And of
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  Speaker 1: course we all know in this part of the world
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  Speaker 1: anything can happen. But it sure looks like Iran blinked.
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  Speaker 1: So again the truth social post now, I will read
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  Speaker 1: it based on conversation with the Prime Minister Shabash Sharif
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  Speaker 1: and the Field Marshal Assimunier of Pakistan and wherein they
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  Speaker 1: requested that I hold off on the destructive force being
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  Speaker 1: sent tonight to Iran and subject to the Islamic Republic
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  Speaker 1: of Iran, agreeing to the complete, immediate and safe opening
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  Speaker 1: of the Strait of horror moves.
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  Speaker 2: That's key.
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  Speaker 1: I agreed to suspend the bombing and the attack of
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  Speaker 1: Iran for a.
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  Speaker 3: Period of two weeks.
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  Speaker 1: This will be a double sided ceasefire. The reason for
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  Speaker 1: doing so is that we have already met and exceeded
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  Speaker 1: all military objectives and are very far along with a
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  Speaker 1: definitive agreement concerning long term peace with Iran.
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  Speaker 4: Now you listen to that, and here's more of what
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  Speaker 4: the President had to say. The US, as he described it,
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  Speaker 4: has already achieved major military objectives. Iran was now willing
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  Speaker 4: to negotiate seriously, and the ceasefire created that window for
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  Speaker 4: what he called long term peace. The markets are also
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  Speaker 4: reacting immediately, oil prices plunging sharply in stock markets surged
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  Speaker 4: on optimism. That tells you everything about how close the
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  Speaker 4: world believed it was to a major escalation in this war.
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  Speaker 4: But the situation, as you heard Laura Ingram describe it
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  Speaker 4: when she spoke with a present, is still fragile. Despite
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  Speaker 4: this announcement, this is far from over. Missile alerts and
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  Speaker 4: regional tensions are continuing even after to the ceasefire. Israel
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  Speaker 4: has signal it may continue operations independently. Iran has warned
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  Speaker 4: the war is not officially over as well, and the
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  Speaker 4: demands on the table remain massive. Iran once sanctions lifted,
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  Speaker 4: guarantees against future attacks, recognition of its right to enrich uranium.
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  Speaker 4: Those are not small issues. Those are the kinds of
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  Speaker 4: issues that can either lead to a historic deal or
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  Speaker 4: collapse the talks entirely.
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  Speaker 3: And then there's the bigger picture.
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  Speaker 4: Yes, you have a war that's paused but has not ended,
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  Speaker 4: both sides in essence agreeing to that. This ceasefire comes
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  Speaker 4: after nearly forty days of conflict already, it has left
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  Speaker 4: thousands dead, cost over one hundred billion dollars, and triggered
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  Speaker 4: the largest energy disruption in decades. So what we're seeing
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  Speaker 4: right now is clearly not peace. It is a strategic pause.
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  Speaker 4: It is a moment where both sides are testing whether
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  Speaker 4: diplomacy can succeed, where military pressure nearly exploded into something
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  Speaker 4: much bigger. So that is the reality this morning. The
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  Speaker 4: Strait of Hormuz, as I'm recording this, is reopened. The
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  Speaker 4: bombs are for now staying on the ground, and the
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  Speaker 4: world is holding its breath, because in two weeks we're
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  Speaker 4: going to find out whether this was the beginning of
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  Speaker 4: peace or just a calm before the major storm.
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  Speaker 3: Now, finally, let me also say one other thing.
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  Speaker 4: The Strait of Hormoes reopening after Trump announces two week
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  Speaker 4: double side ceasefire is a huge moment. There's also the
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  Speaker 4: reality that the President of United States of America understands
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  Speaker 4: you're dealing with a terish regime and Tehran can do
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  Speaker 4: anything at any moment.
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  Speaker 3: To blow up this entire ceasefire.
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  Speaker 4: It's part of the reason why Israel may be going
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  Speaker 4: it alone for the next two weeks, continuing to go
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  Speaker 4: after targets they believe are important to go after in
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  Speaker 4: a rain. But what it also tells us is this,
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  Speaker 4: after the President spoke with Pakistan's Prime minister, he understood
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  Speaker 4: that there was at least now a real chance that
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  Speaker 4: the threat of a destructive attack on Iran was enough
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  Speaker 4: to get them to the table. And if we can
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  Speaker 4: get peace because of these negotiations, that's good for everyone involved.
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  Speaker 4: I promise you this, We'll watch it closely for you
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  Speaker 4: and keep you updated on exactly what's happening moving forward.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you for listening. To the forty seven Morning Update
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  Speaker 2: with Ben Ferguson. Please make sure you hit subscribe wherever
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: you're listening to this podcast right now and for more
• 11:42
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• 11:46
  Speaker 2: and we will see you back here tomorrow