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UBS Trending Extra: Will the Iran War cause a recession? · UBS Trending

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  Will the Iran conflict push the U.S.
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  economy into recession?
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  It's a good question
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  that businesses and households are considering,
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  especially going into the midterm election.
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  What we've found,
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  according to this chart,
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  is that while growth expectations have decelerated
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  since the start of the Iran conflict,
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  they haven't completely eroded.
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  In fact,
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  this chart shows that we should expect growth to be around
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  2%, which is the long term average of the US economy.
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  Part of this surprising founding is due to the fact of the,
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  OBBBA stimulus refunds, more tax dollars that is less spent.
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  It helps buffer consumers as well as businesses
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  in a more challenging environment.
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  Originally, we had thought that this would be enough
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  to propel this year
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  into an above trend growth here, but it's just enough to help,
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  help businesses and consumers continue spending to a trend year.
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  Even though with a stagflation area
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  headwind like the Iran war conflict.
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  To discover a little more about this,
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  to read more about this topic, as well as what CIOs thinking
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  about the Federal Reserve
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  policy, mid-term elections,
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  as well as a next steps for the AI trade,
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  please take a look at our recent report, the Q2 CEO Macro
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  Briefing Book that's published on UBS.com/CIO.