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The AI Wargame's Flat Hierarchy Problem
The promise of AI in geopolitical wargaming is simulating thousands of perspectives simultaneously. But there's a critical flaw: Large Language Models treat every actor as a peer, giving equal weight to a press release from a local NGO and a troop mobilization order from a superpower. This episode explores the "Exhaustive List Fallacy," why adding more actors often makes simulations less accurate, and how technical limitations like context thinning and the attention mechanism create dangerous noise. We examine the 2026 DARPA simulation pivot to hierarchical modeling and why "digital…
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