Latest / Connecting the Dots / AI Demand Surges, Stablecoins Return, and Energy Scales Up

Transcript

AI Demand Surges, Stablecoins Return, and Energy Scales Up · Connecting the Dots

• 0:00
  Today's tech news moves fast, but understanding
• 0:03
  it shouldn't be hard. That's why Snarful Solutions
• 0:06
  Group brings you Connecting the Dots, where we
• 0:09
  break down what's happening in tech and why it
• 0:11
  matters to you. Now, let's dive in with your
• 0:14
  hosts. Good morning, everyone. I'm Alex. And
• 0:18
  I'm Morgan. And you are listening to Connecting
• 0:20
  the Dots, coming to you live from the studios
• 0:22
  of Snarful Solutions Group, right here in Sacramento,
• 0:25
  California. It is Wednesday, January 28th, 2026.
• 0:29
  We made it to the middle of the week. We did.
• 0:31
  The end of January is staring us right in the
• 0:33
  face. It feels like we just host the new year
• 0:36
  and now, well, we're almost a full month down.
• 0:38
  Time flies when you're watching the world change.
• 0:41
  But speaking of things changing, if you're looking
• 0:43
  at your window this morning, depending on where
• 0:45
  you are, it might look a little frightful. Oh,
• 0:48
  yeah. We are looking at the national weather
• 0:50
  maps and wow, there is a serious Arctic blast
• 0:55
  moving through the plains and the Great Lakes
• 0:57
  right now. It looks intense. We're seeing reports
• 1:00
  that this could be the longest duration cold
• 1:02
  snap in several decades for those regions. And
• 1:04
  it's not just staying in the middle of the country.
• 1:06
  It's barreling toward the East Coast. By the
• 1:08
  weekend, yeah. And they're tracking a potential
• 1:10
  winter storm, too. Yeah. So if you're tuning
• 1:13
  in from out east or up north, please bundle up.
• 1:17
  Keep the pets inside. Stay safe. Meanwhile, here
• 1:20
  in Sacramento. Look, I don't want to be the person
• 1:23
  who rubs it in, but we have to report the local
• 1:25
  news. Go ahead, say it. We can take it. We started
• 1:28
  with some classic morning fog, but it's turning
• 1:30
  into a partly sunny day with a high of 58 degrees.
• 1:34
  It's officially sweater weather, but the nice
• 1:37
  kind. The coffee on the patio kind. Right, not
• 1:39
  the survival gear kind. Exactly. Before we get
• 1:43
  into today's analysis, let's do a quick pulse
• 1:45
  check on the markets. The Morningstar market
• 1:47
  update is in. The Dow closed yesterday at 49
• 1:51
  ,040 .88. It was just barely up about 0 .03%.
• 1:57
  And the S &P was basically flat down a tiny fraction
• 1:59
  to close at 6 ,999 .02. Wow, it is literally
• 2:04
  knocking on the door of 7 ,000. It really feels
• 2:06
  like the market is holding its breath a little
• 2:08
  bit, waiting for the next big signal. But you
• 2:10
  know who isn't holding their breath? The crypto
• 2:11
  market. Bitcoin is still on a tear, trading up
• 2:15
  this morning at $89 ,694 .50. It feels like 90k
• 2:19
  is just inevitable at this point. It's certainly
• 2:21
  at the momentum. Now, before we connect the dots
• 2:23
  on today's stories, and we have a huge topic
• 2:26
  today, really about the literal plumbing of the
• 2:28
  future, we have to thank the fuel that keeps
• 2:31
  this show running. I am, of course, talking about
• 2:33
  strong coffee. You know, I was the biggest skeptic
• 2:36
  about instant coffee for years. I thought it
• 2:38
  was just for camping or, I don't know, emergencies.
• 2:41
  Me too. But this stuff is legitimately different.
• 2:44
  It's premium instant coffee, but it tastes like
• 2:47
  a traditional brew you'd get at a cafe. But here's
• 2:50
  the kicker. It's functional. It's packed with
• 2:53
  15 grams of protein, MCTs, and adaptogens like
• 2:57
  ashwagandha. Which is huge because you get that
• 3:00
  clean, sustained energy without the jitters.
• 3:03
  Or the crash later in the morning. It's brain
• 3:04
  food, really. Exactly. If you want to upgrade
• 3:07
  your morning routine, head over to strongcoffeecompany
• 3:09
  .com and use the promo code SNARFL, that's S
• 3:12
  -N -A -R -F -U -L, for 20 % off your entire purchase.
• 3:17
  Definitely worth checking out. Alright, let's
• 3:18
  get into it. We've gone through the Morningstar
• 3:20
  report, and we've pulled out three stories that,
• 3:23
  well, they might seem separate at first glance.
• 3:25
  Chips, crypto, and batteries. But when you layer
• 3:28
  them on top of each other, they tell a single,
• 3:31
  massive story. It's really a story about infrastructure.
• 3:34
  But not the kind we usually talk about. Not roads
• 3:36
  and bridges. No. This is the infrastructure of
• 3:40
  the artificial intelligence age. We're talking
• 3:41
  about the back end. The physical chips that do
• 3:44
  the thinking. The financial rails that move the
• 3:46
  money. And the power grid that keeps the lights
• 3:48
  on. We're watching the world literally restructure
• 3:52
  itself to support this new technology. And we
• 3:54
  have to start with a big one. The machine maker.
• 3:57
  ASML. Dutch chip equipment. Giant. ASML. Just
• 4:02
  drop their Q4 numbers and set. I mean... Surprising
• 4:06
  doesn't quite cover it. No, earth -shattering
• 4:08
  might be closer. ASML shattered records. They
• 4:11
  reported bookings of 13 .2 billion euros in the
• 4:14
  fourth quarter. Okay, so let's put that in context.
• 4:16
  What were the analysts expecting? They were estimating
• 4:19
  around 6 .3 billion. So they didn't just beat
• 4:22
  estimates. They more than doubled them. Yeah.
• 4:24
  In the financial world, for a company of this
• 4:26
  size, I mean this is a massive industrial titan,
• 4:29
  to miss the estimate on the upside by that much
• 4:31
  is almost unheard of. That is a signal if I've
• 4:34
  ever heard one. But why? What exactly are people
• 4:37
  buying? That is the most critical detail. More
• 4:39
  than half of those bookings, 7 .4 billion euros
• 4:43
  worth, were for EUV machines. EUV, extreme ultraviolet
• 4:48
  lithography. Let's break that down for a second.
• 4:50
  We hear that acronym a lot, but what are these
• 4:52
  machines actually doing? Think of them as the
• 4:54
  most expensive... complex printers in existence.
• 4:58
  They use light with an incredibly short wavelength,
• 5:00
  extreme ultraviolet, to print patterns onto silicon
• 5:04
  wafers. And these patterns are so small, they're
• 5:06
  measured in nanometers. Right. You simply cannot
• 5:09
  build the cutting edge processors that run AI,
• 5:11
  like the ones in video designs, without these
• 5:14
  specific machines. So ASML is the bottleneck.
• 5:17
  They are the only toll booth on the highway to
• 5:19
  the future. If you want to play in the AI space,
• 5:21
  you have to pay the toll. So who's writing these
• 5:23
  massive checks? Everyone who wants to stay alive
• 5:26
  in this industry, TSMC, Samsung, Micron, they're
• 5:29
  all racing to expand capacity because their clients,
• 5:33
  Microsoft, Meta, Google, are just screaming for
• 5:35
  more computing power. I saw a quote in the report
• 5:38
  from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Haum. He called this data
• 5:42
  center expansion the largest infrastructure project
• 5:45
  in human history. And he's not exaggerating.
• 5:48
  We're talking about trillions of dollars in investment.
• 5:51
  ASML is sitting right at the supply point of
• 5:54
  that funnel. But here's where the story gets
• 5:56
  a little weird. They're posting record numbers.
• 5:59
  The stock is surging. And yet, they announce
• 6:02
  job cuts. It does seem contradictory on the surface,
• 6:04
  doesn't it? They announce they're cutting about
• 6:05
  1 ,700 jobs. Which is roughly 4 % of their workforce.
• 6:09
  So why? If you're doubling your orders, don't
• 6:12
  you need all hands on deck? Well, it's about
• 6:14
  the type of hands. The CEO, Christophe Fouquet,
• 6:17
  was pretty clear about this. He said the organization
• 6:20
  has become too complex. Bureaucracy. Exactly.
• 6:22
  It's slowing down innovation. So they're trimming
• 6:24
  management and administrative layers to refocus
• 6:27
  specifically on engineering and R &D. So less
• 6:30
  paperwork, more physics. Precisely. They want
• 6:32
  to be agile. When you're trying to keep up with
• 6:35
  the largest infrastructure project in history,
• 6:38
  you can't be bogged down in meetings about meetings.
• 6:40
  There's another nuance here regarding China.
• 6:43
  We talk about the AI boom, but the geopolitical
• 6:46
  side of chips is just as big. It is. The report
• 6:49
  notes that sales to China are expected to drop
• 6:51
  significantly. In 2025, China was a huge chunk
• 6:56
  of their market, about 36 percent. And by 2026?
• 7:00
  They expect that to fall to 20 percent. Because
• 7:02
  of the export restrictions? Right. The US and
• 7:05
  its allies have clamped down. ASML can't sell
• 7:08
  their best stuff, those EUV machines, to China.
• 7:11
  One last thing on ASMR and this is kind of a
• 7:14
  mic drop moment from them. They said they're
• 7:16
  going to stop reporting quarterly bookings after
• 7:18
  this. Yeah, they're going out with a bang. Their
• 7:21
  argument is that the quarterly numbers cause
• 7:24
  too much volatility and don't reflect the long
• 7:26
  -term reality of their business. It's a massive
• 7:28
  flex. It's basically saying we're building the
• 7:31
  infrastructure of the next century, stop obsessing
• 7:34
  over every three months. Exactly. It shows incredible
• 7:37
  confidence. So that's the physical layer, the
• 7:39
  chips. Now let's move to the financial layer.
• 7:41
  We're talking about Tether. The biggest stablecoin
• 7:43
  issuer in the world. Historically, let's be honest,
• 7:47
  they've been the offshore guys. The Cowboys.
• 7:50
  Right. There has always been this air of mystery
• 7:52
  around them. But today's story is about them
• 7:55
  coming home. Tether has officially launched USA.
• 7:59
  This is a massive shift in strategy. USA is a
• 8:02
  US regulated stable coin designed specifically.
• 8:05
  for the american market so how is this different
• 8:08
  from their normal usd t that everyone knows it's
• 8:11
  all about the regulatory rapper yeah usa is issued
• 8:14
  by anchorage digital bank which is a federally
• 8:16
  chartered okay and the reserves the money backing
• 8:19
  the token are custody by cantor fitzgerald. And
• 8:22
  this is happening under the Genius Act. Right,
• 8:25
  the Genius Act. This is the new legislation that
• 8:27
  requires stable coins to have full reserve backing
• 8:30
  and bank or qualified issuer status if they want
• 8:34
  to operate in the U .S. So Tether is basically
• 8:36
  putting on a suit and tie. They are. They appointed
• 8:39
  Bo Heinz, the former executive director of the
• 8:41
  White House Crypto Council, as the CEO of this
• 8:43
  new entity. That's a serious move. It's a very
• 8:46
  clear play to compete with Circles USDC, which
• 8:49
  has dominated the regulated U .S. market for
• 8:51
  a long time. And it's already live, right? Yes.
• 8:54
  Trading on Kraken, Crypto .com, OKX, MoonPay.
• 8:59
  They are not waiting around. You know, when we
• 9:01
  talk about Pether, I think people forget just
• 9:03
  how much money we are talking about. I saw a
• 9:05
  stat in the report that blew my mind. The Treasuries.
• 9:08
  Yes. Tether is the world's 17th largest holder
• 9:11
  of U .S. Treasuries. It's staggering. Think about
• 9:14
  that. They hold more U .S. debt than Germany.
• 9:17
  More than South Korea. More than Australia. That
• 9:20
  is wild a crypto company holding more US debt
• 9:23
  than major industrialized nations Why does that
• 9:26
  matter for the average person? It matters because
• 9:29
  it integrates crypto into the stability of the
• 9:31
  U .S. dollar. If you're the U .S. government,
• 9:33
  you actually want people buying your debt. And
• 9:36
  Tether is a massive whale in that market. A massive
• 9:38
  whale in both the crypto market and the traditional
• 9:40
  bond market. They hold about $8 .6 billion in
• 9:44
  Bitcoin, too. So by launching US ETSO, they're
• 9:47
  trying to cement that position inside the U .S.
• 9:49
  regulatory fence. It's a smart move. If the U
• 9:52
  .S. wants to maintain the dollar's dominance,
• 9:54
  they need regulated stable coins. Tether's saying,
• 9:57
  okay, we have the capital, we have the network,
• 9:59
  and now we'll play by your rules. Just let us
• 10:02
  in. It's legitimizing the financial rails. So
• 10:05
  we have the chips from ASML, we have the digital
• 10:08
  money from Tether, but none of this works without
• 10:11
  electricity. And that brings us to our third
• 10:13
  story. Redwood Materials. This connects everything
• 10:16
  back together. We've been talking about how AI
• 10:19
  requires these massive data centers. Well, those
• 10:21
  data centers are incredibly thirsty for electricity.
• 10:24
  And Redwood Materials, founded by JB Straubel,
• 10:27
  the guy who helped found Tesla, is stepping in.
• 10:30
  They just raised $425 million. Pushing their
• 10:33
  valuation over $6 billion. But look at who invested.
• 10:36
  I saw that. Google joined the round. And NVIDIA's
• 10:39
  venture arm is in there too. That tells you everything.
• 10:41
  Why is Google investing in a battery recycling
• 10:44
  company? Because Redwood isn't just about recycling
• 10:46
  anymore. They're pivoting. Exactly. They're calling
• 10:49
  it Redwood Energy. See, traditionally, their
• 10:51
  pitch was, we take old batteries, break them
• 10:54
  down, and make new materials for EV batteries.
• 10:58
  But now they're realizing there's a middle step.
• 11:00
  They're taking EV batteries that aren't quite
• 11:02
  good enough for a car anymore. Maybe they've
• 11:03
  lost some range, but they aren't dead. But still
• 11:06
  hold a lot of energy. A ton. So Redwood is repurposing
• 11:09
  them into stationary storage units for data centers.
• 11:12
  That makes so much sense. If you're running a
• 11:15
  massive AI server farm, you need backup power.
• 11:19
  You need grid stability. Precisely. Storage is
• 11:22
  now essential infrastructure, to quote the company.
• 11:25
  They're aiming to deploy 20 gigawatt hours of
• 11:27
  grid storage by 2028. That is a lot of power.
• 11:31
  But similar to ASML, there's a human cost to
• 11:34
  this pivot, isn't there? There is. Redwood recently
• 11:37
  laid off about five to six percent of their staff.
• 11:39
  Mostly in cathode engineering. Yes. And that's
• 11:42
  significant. Cathode engineering is the chemistry
• 11:44
  of making new batteries. By cutting there, it
• 11:47
  shows they're shifting resources toward this
• 11:49
  storage business. They're following the market
• 11:51
  demand. The EV market has cooled a bit, but the
• 11:55
  AI energy market is exploding. It's the circle
• 11:58
  of life, but for batteries. It starts in a Tesla,
• 12:01
  drives for 10 years, gets retired, goes to a
• 12:04
  Google data center. And then eventually Redwood
• 12:06
  recycles it back into raw lithium and nickel
• 12:09
  to start the process all over again. It's fascinating
• 12:11
  how these three stories lock together. You can't
• 12:14
  have the AI boom. without the ASML chip. Can't
• 12:17
  have the global financial velocity without the
• 12:19
  stablecoins. And you can't turn any of it on
• 12:21
  without the power and storage from companies
• 12:24
  like Redwood. It is a complete ecosystem being
• 12:26
  built in real time. It really is. Now, before
• 12:29
  we wrap up, we have to mention our other sponsor
• 12:31
  who keeps us looking sharp. Oh, absolutely. We're
• 12:33
  talking about Skoni. Skoni. That's S -K -O -N
• 12:36
  -I. If you play golf, or honestly, if you just
• 12:38
  want incredibly comfortable style of shoes, you
• 12:41
  need to check them out. I have a pair. They are
• 12:43
  game changers. I wear them to the office, then
• 12:46
  straight to the range. And because you listen
• 12:47
  to the show, you can get a deal. Go to scony
• 12:50
  .com and use promo code SNARFL at checkout. That
• 12:53
  gets you 15 % off the entire purchase. 15 % off.
• 12:56
  Do it. Your feet will thank you. They will. So
• 12:59
  let's bring it home. We've covered a lot of ground.
• 13:02
  ASML bookings doubling, Tether entering the US
• 13:05
  banking system, Redwood pivoting to power the
• 13:08
  AI grid. What's the big picture? You know, we
• 13:11
  often talk about infrastructure and people think
• 13:14
  of concrete they think of the Hoover Dam or the
• 13:17
  interstate highway system right but what we saw
• 13:19
  today is the definition of modern infrastructure
• 13:22
  it's not just concrete anymore no it's a 300
• 13:25
  million dollar lithography machine in a clean
• 13:29
  room in Taiwan it's a digital token backed by
• 13:32
  Treasury bills sitting in a US bank It's a recycled
• 13:36
  battery pack outside a data center. It's the
• 13:38
  invisible backbone. Exactly. And the scale of
• 13:41
  investment we're seeing tells me we are still
• 13:44
  in the very early innings of this transformation.
• 13:46
  That's a great point. We get distracted by the
• 13:49
  chat bots and the image generators, but the real
• 13:51
  story is in the copper, the silicon, and the
• 13:53
  energy. Always follow the plumbing. Always follow
• 13:56
  the plumbing. I like that. That is something
• 13:58
  to chew on as you go about your Wednesday. Is
• 14:01
  your portfolio or your career aligned with the
• 14:04
  plumbing? or just the faucet? That's the question.
• 14:09
  Well, that is all we have time for today. Thank
• 14:11
  you so much for tuning in and letting us be a
• 14:14
  part of your morning. It's been a pleasure. We're
• 14:16
  here to help at Snarful, so reach out on our
• 14:18
  website if you have any more questions. That's
• 14:23
  a wrap on today's top stories. Remember, tech
• 14:26
  doesn't have to be complicated, and we're here
• 14:28
  to help connect the dots. If you've got questions
• 14:31
  or want to learn more, visit us at snarful .com.
• 14:35
  Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next
• 14:37
  time.