Latest / The Ben Ferguson Podcast / Inside the Shockwaves of the Iran Deal as Strait Reopens & Markets Explode

Transcript

Inside the Shockwaves of the Iran Deal as Strait Reopens & Markets Explode · The Ben Ferguson Podcast

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  Speaker 1: It's a very important document. And unlike Obama, who could
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  Speaker 1: have destroyed the Middle East with a horrible jc POA,
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  Speaker 1: it is the worst agreement that was a road to
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  Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon. Mine is a wall against a nuclear weapon.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, I see these people say, but we already
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  Speaker 1: had one. He paid a fortune for it, We paid nothing.
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  Speaker 1: We don't pay. There was some statement we're going to
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  Speaker 1: spend three hundred bion dollars.
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  Speaker 2: So you're listening to the forty seven Morning Update with
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  Speaker 2: Ben ferguson.
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  Speaker 3: Good Wednesday morning. Nice to have you with us on
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  Speaker 3: the forty seven Morning Update. And we've got the very
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  Speaker 3: big story that now we know more details about what's
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  Speaker 3: in the Iran deal, and there was a vote in
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  Speaker 3: the Senate to take away the presence war powers with
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  Speaker 3: actually attacking Iran. We have the details of how the
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  Speaker 3: vote went down and it was down to one single vote.
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  Speaker 3: But first I want to take a moment and I
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  Speaker 3: want to talk to you about my friends at the
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  Speaker 3: International Fellowship of Christians and Jews. From America's Revolutionary War
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  Speaker 3: to Israel's fight for survival in nineteen forty eight, both
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  Speaker 3: nations have faced moments that tested their courage. Yet freedom endured.
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  Speaker 3: In October of nineteen eighty five, President Ronald Reagan delivered
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  Speaker 3: these remarks about America's commitment to stand with Israel.
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  Speaker 4: In our talks, We've paid special attention to two issues,
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  Speaker 4: our commitment to Israel's security and well being, and our
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  Speaker 4: shared desire to move forward together toward a just and
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  Speaker 4: lasting piece between Israel and all its Arab neighbors. A strong,
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  Speaker 4: secure Israel is a shared interest.
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  Speaker 3: As Americas celebrates its two hundred and fiftieth anniversary, the
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  Speaker 3: International Fellowship of Christians and Jews reflects on the friendship
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  Speaker 3: between the United States and Israel, two democracies built on faith, liberty,
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  Speaker 3: and hope. Sign up to receive a free USA Israel
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  Speaker 3: flagpen when you go online to flag pin ifcj dot org.
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  Speaker 3: That's flag Pin IFCJTG. It's the forty seven Morning Update
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  Speaker 3: and it starts right now.
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  Speaker 5: Story number one, Well.
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  Speaker 3: The irando has sent shockwaves through the world economy. Stocks
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  Speaker 3: are still surging, oil prices are still falling, and the
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  Speaker 3: Trump team defends the agreement as many on the left
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  Speaker 3: and some on the right are angry.
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  Speaker 5: That is the big story.
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  Speaker 3: The economic reaction to President Trump's announcement is also exactly
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  Speaker 3: what he said it was going to end the war,
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  Speaker 3: reopen the Straight of Horn Moves, and then prevent Iran
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  Speaker 3: from obtaining a nuclear weapon. And the financial markets, they
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  Speaker 3: believe the president. For weeks, the biggest fear hanging over
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  Speaker 3: the global economy was what was going to happen with
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  Speaker 3: the Straight of hor Moves and would it remain blocked
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  Speaker 3: or would there be tolls, or would Iran continue to
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  Speaker 3: do terrorist activities on ships going through the Strait? When
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  Speaker 3: President Trump has announced the agreement and said the Straight
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  Speaker 3: will reopen, and the oil markets for the second day
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  Speaker 3: in a row reversed what they were doing. Drasts, Crude
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  Speaker 3: prices have plummeted from the crisis highs seen during the conflict,
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  Speaker 3: falling as traders began pricing in the return of stability
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  Speaker 3: and the removal of the worst case scenario of a
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  Speaker 3: major Middle East supply disruption. Brent crude, which had served
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  Speaker 3: as high as roughly one hundred and eighteen dollars per
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  Speaker 3: barrel during the crisis, dropped significantly below eighty dollars a barrel.
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  Speaker 3: Now that matters for every American, and that's what the
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  Speaker 3: President promised. Lower crude prices would flow through to lower
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  Speaker 3: gasoline prices and then lower transportation costs and the broader
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  Speaker 3: inflation pressures. We talked about this yesterday, but the stock
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  Speaker 3: market doubled down and celebrated the news. Wall Street said,
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  Speaker 3: we believe this is real, and investors moved into stocks
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  Speaker 3: as fears of a prolonged Middle East war have faded quickly.
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  Speaker 3: Now the biggest winners were sectors that benefited from lower
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  Speaker 3: energy costs and improved global stability. The market rea action
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  Speaker 3: was simple, the less chance of a wider war, the
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  Speaker 3: lower the risk to the global economy. Markets rallied on
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  Speaker 3: the belief that shipping lanes will remain open, and then
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  Speaker 3: a major economic shock had been avoided. Now President Trump
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  Speaker 3: said great things are going to happen. In his new messaging,
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  Speaker 3: he's celebrated the agreement, saying this deal will not only
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  Speaker 3: ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon, but
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  Speaker 3: it also is allowing the Middle East to.
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  Speaker 5: Move forward with stability.
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  Speaker 3: Trump also towed the reopening the Strait of hor moves
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  Speaker 3: and predicted that a lot of great things would happen
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  Speaker 3: as the tensions ease and the global markets normalize. Now,
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  Speaker 3: the White House argument is very straightforward. The military pressure
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  Speaker 3: brought a rand to the negotiating table, and diplomacy secured
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  Speaker 3: an agreement that could avoid a larger regional war. Jesse
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  Speaker 3: Waters on Fox News Channel explained it this way, Well.
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  Speaker 6: It's the exact opposite of the Iran deal, where proxies
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  Speaker 6: and missiles are covered, because if they fund the proxies
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  Speaker 6: then they don't get the economic benefits. And the missiles
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  Speaker 6: are covered because eighty five percent of them have been
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  Speaker 6: destroyed and ninety percent of the industrial base has been destroyed,
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  Speaker 6: so they've been disarmed. They can't rearm because they can't
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  Speaker 6: manufacture more weapons.
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  Speaker 5: And now they can't.
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  Speaker 6: Really project power outside of their borders because they have
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  Speaker 6: no air force and they have no navy, and they
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  Speaker 6: don't pose an imminent threat to the United States anymore,
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  Speaker 6: and they have no air defense, so we have full
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  Speaker 6: air superiority. Also, the difference between the Obama deal is
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  Speaker 6: they cannot.
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  Speaker 5: Build a nuclear weapon.
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  Speaker 6: They can enrich at all, and they can't stockpile because
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  Speaker 6: they can't access the uranium. The dust is so deep
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  Speaker 6: down there the only people that can get it is us.
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  Speaker 5: And if we even just.
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  Speaker 6: Let it sit there, in a uranium grave for eternity.
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  Speaker 6: It's already destroyed their nuclear program. All the centrifugures are shattered,
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  Speaker 6: Their nuclear scientists are all dead. So if we do nothing,
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  Speaker 6: it's already accomplished the president's main objective, which is prevent
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  Speaker 6: them from ever getting a nuclear weapon. Everything he laid
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  Speaker 6: out the day after the bombing started has been achieved.
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  Speaker 3: Jesse went on to say, quote, this does what the
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  Speaker 3: Obama deal didn't do.
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  Speaker 5: And he's exactly right. Now.
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  Speaker 3: There's many that are angry right now about this deal,
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  Speaker 3: saying it doesn't go far enough that we had leverage
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  Speaker 3: and we're not doing enough with that leverage. And there's
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  Speaker 3: two ways to look at this. So let's be clear.
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  Speaker 3: You could continue to fight with a RAN. You could
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  Speaker 3: have continue high gas prices. You then get us dangerously
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  Speaker 3: close to the midterm elections, and then you could actually
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  Speaker 3: have Republicans lose the House and the Senate over this
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  Speaker 3: war with a RAN.
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  Speaker 5: That was a real possibility.
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  Speaker 3: Or you could find an exit ramp that has real
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  Speaker 3: accountability in it. Now to be clear, that exit ramp
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  Speaker 3: means this, you get gas prices lower. You have done
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  Speaker 3: with the present promised the American people, and that was
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  Speaker 3: make sure that we do not have a nuclear Iran,
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  Speaker 3: and then you go back to doing the business the
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  Speaker 3: American people care about here domestically. That is what you
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  Speaker 3: do before the midterms. Now we also have to know this.
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  Speaker 3: It's very clear that President Trump will Bauma Ran again
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  Speaker 3: if he needs to. Now, what was also interesting was
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  Speaker 3: what was happening on Capitol Hill as the Senate shot
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  Speaker 3: down a resolution to limit President Trump's military authority over Iran.
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  Speaker 3: It happened, and it was a very close vote. In fact,
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  Speaker 3: by a single vote. The Senate shut down a proposal
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  Speaker 3: on Tuesday that would have rained in the present's ability
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  Speaker 3: to use military force against Iran without congressional approval. The
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  Speaker 3: vote fell just one vote short, advancing forty eight to
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  Speaker 3: forty seven. Republican Senator Susan Collins, Bill Cassidy, Lisa Murkowski,
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  Speaker 3: and Ran Paul voted with the Democrats on the flip
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  Speaker 3: side the Savior with Senator John Fetterman, the Democrat from
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  Speaker 3: pennsylvaniass the Isle to vote alongside the Republican majority against
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  Speaker 3: the bill. Now, the bill was obviously political from the beginning.
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  Speaker 3: It was introduced by Senator Rafael Warnock, you know, the
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  Speaker 3: hardcore lefty democrat from Georgia, and the resolution sought to
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  Speaker 3: require Congressional approval for continued US military action involving Iran.
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  Speaker 3: Warnock had urged Republicans to vote for it, arguing that
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  Speaker 3: Congress shouldn't just sit back and let the President make
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  Speaker 3: all the decisions on foreign wars. The vote occurred as
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  Speaker 3: lawmakers press the White House for key details about the
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  Speaker 3: agreement that Trump announced Sunday between Washington and Tehran, and
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  Speaker 3: that he had promised as a path towards ending months
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  Speaker 3: of fighting. Quote, the deal with the Islamic Republic of
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  Speaker 3: Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all, Trump declared on
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  Speaker 3: true social Members of Congress are still completely in the
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  Speaker 3: dark about the agreement, leading to a push on the
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  Speaker 3: Administration for transparency. The Senate Majority Leader John Thune said
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  Speaker 3: lawmakers are demanding more details of how the arrangement actually works.
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  Speaker 3: Under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of twenty fifteen,
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  Speaker 3: agreements related to Iran's nuclear program must be submitted to
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  Speaker 3: Congress for review before sanctioned relief can actually take effect. Now,
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  Speaker 3: although the measure did not advance, the Senate Minority leader,
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  Speaker 3: the Democrat Chuck Schumer of New York said Democrats are
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  Speaker 3: continuing their discussion surrounding a separate proposal that's actually been
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  Speaker 3: sponsored by Senate Democrat Tim Kaine, and they're attempting to secure,
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  Speaker 3: they say, additional Republican support before bringing it up again.
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  Speaker 3: This also may be playing into why this agreement's being
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  Speaker 3: done right now. We also know the House recently approved
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  Speaker 3: its own legislation seeking to halt unauthorized military operations against Iran.
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  Speaker 3: Now that measure is yet to receive consideration the Senate,
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  Speaker 3: but administration officials they maintained the key portions of the
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  Speaker 3: War Powers Resolution are unconstitutional, and they're also contending that
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  Speaker 3: an April Ceas fire alter the timeline governing congressional authorization requirements.
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  Speaker 3: So at the end of the day, here's where we are.
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  Speaker 3: We have a present that understands a deal needed to
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  Speaker 3: be done. We have a present that made sure in
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  Speaker 3: that deal that Iran would not get nuclear weapons. We
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  Speaker 3: have a president that understood that gas prices in the
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  Speaker 3: economy and inflation are incredibly important issues heading into the midterms.
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  Speaker 3: And he understands that he can also hold a Ran
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  Speaker 3: accountable in the near future if he needs to as well,
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  Speaker 3: So that is where we are. One other thing you
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  Speaker 3: might want to put in consideration about this deal is this,
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  Speaker 3: You know it's not that bad when you have Mike
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  Speaker 3: Pence coming out saying the President should have gone back
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  Speaker 3: to his first instincts, saying the President's doing the wrong thing.
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  Speaker 3: If people like Mike Pence are criticizing you, well, then
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  Speaker 3: the deal is probably not half bad at all.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you for listening to the forty seven Morning Update
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  Speaker 2: with Ben Ferguson. Please make sure you hit subscribe wherever
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  Speaker 2: you're listening to this podcast right now and for more
• 11:10
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• 11:14
  Speaker 2: and we will see you back here tomorrow