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The Debate: Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle
The team offer an exhaustive analysis of the forces driving Bitcoin’s characteristic multi-year market cycles, outlining two competing yet complementary theories. The Halving Cycle thesis posits that Bitcoin’s internal, predictable supply shock—the Halving—serves as the primary catalyst for bull markets, historically leading to a peak approximately 12 to 18 months after the event. Conversely, the Global Liquidity Cycle thesis argues that Bitcoin acts as a high-risk asset whose price is overwhelmingly determined by macroeconomic conditions, specifically the expansion and contraction of the…
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