Is Your AI Wargame Signal or Noise?

Logosofia no Dia a Dia · Apr 9, 2026 · 29m

As AI wargaming moves from hobbyist projects to policy workflows, the methodology behind running simulations becomes critical. This episode explores the tension between deterministic and stochastic runs, how temperature settings affect actor behavior, and why single-run simulations systematically underestimate risk. We break down the minimum viable run counts for different levels of rigor and tackle the philosophical question of whether LLM variance maps to real-world uncertainty. Episode 2135 — myweirdprompts.com/n/2135 (permanent short link: myweirdprompts.com/663089)