Latest / The Ben Ferguson Podcast / Will Michelle Obama Replace Biden? plus Part 2: Predicting Supreme Court Opinion on Colorado Trump Case
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Welcome.
- 0:01Speaker 2: It is verdict with Senator Ted Cruz Ben Ferguson. With you, Senator,
- 0:05Speaker 2: we said we were going to do a two part
- 0:06Speaker 2: series on this Colorado case that is going to the
- 0:09Speaker 2: Supreme Court and get into some more of the history
- 0:12Speaker 2: of it. This will be part two. But a prediction
- 0:17Speaker 2: that you made on this show seems to be much
- 0:20Speaker 2: closer to becoming a reality than anyone imagine. As the
- 0:25Speaker 2: former First Lady Michelle Obama said in a recent interview
- 0:29Speaker 2: that her fears about the twenty twenty four presidential election
- 0:33Speaker 2: keep her up at night, saying she's terrified and she
- 0:38Speaker 2: believes we need a real leader. It sounded to me
- 0:41Speaker 2: like she's saying, I might want to be the president
- 0:44Speaker 2: of the United States of America. You predicted this, sir.
- 0:47Speaker 2: Let's just take a little shock moment of victory lap.
- 0:51Speaker 3: At the same time, Well, look, it is certainly not
- 0:54Speaker 3: a victory lap because it's horrifying for the country. But
- 0:56Speaker 3: I will say months ago, we did an entire podcast
- 1:00Speaker 3: laying out that I thought the odds were rising dramatically
- 1:04Speaker 3: that the Democrat Party would pull the ripcord on Joe Biden,
- 1:10Speaker 3: parachute him out, abandon him, and replace him with Michelle Obama.
- 1:15Speaker 3: And my reasoning. Let's revisit the reasoning because because it's
- 1:19Speaker 3: you know, sometimes when I say this people they're like, Okay,
- 1:21Speaker 3: this seems ludicrous. Here's my reasoning. Number one, I think
- 1:26Speaker 3: if Joe Biden had dropped out two months ago, I
- 1:29Speaker 3: think you'd see a ton of Democrats jumping in the field.
- 1:31Speaker 3: I think the top four in the field would be
- 1:33Speaker 3: Kamala Harris, Pete Boudhaje Edge, Elizabeth Warren, and Gavin Newsom.
- 1:39Speaker 3: There'd be others, but those would be the top four
- 1:42Speaker 3: in that field. I am convinced in an open primary
- 1:46Speaker 3: in the Democrat Party, the winner would be Elizabeth Warren.
- 1:50Speaker 3: And the reason I'm convinced that, I think she is
- 1:52Speaker 3: the ID of the Democrat Party. They are radical socialists,
- 1:56Speaker 3: they're angry. Remember look in twenty twenty she ran and
- 1:59Speaker 3: Bernie sam they both split the whack job leftist part
- 2:03Speaker 3: of the party, and Bernie almost won. With Bernie out
- 2:07Speaker 3: of the field, I think Elizabeth Warren wins that open primary.
- 2:10Speaker 3: But at this point we're sitting here in January, it's
- 2:13Speaker 3: too late for Joe Biden not to run, so he's
- 2:15Speaker 3: going to run, he's on the ballot. That means the
- 2:19Speaker 3: only opportunity for the Democrats to pull Biden is at
- 2:22Speaker 3: their convention this summer. Now, if they do that, they
- 2:25Speaker 3: have a problem. If they pull Biden, the next person
- 2:28Speaker 3: in line is Kamala Harris. Now there are a bunch
- 2:31Speaker 3: of people saying, oh, they're going to replace Kamala with
- 2:34Speaker 3: Gavin Newsom. I think the chances of that happening are
- 2:37Speaker 3: zero points zero zero percent.
- 2:39Speaker 1: Why.
- 2:40Speaker 3: I think the Democrat Party is structurally incapable of replacing
- 2:47Speaker 3: an African American woman with a white guy, like I
- 2:50Speaker 3: think their party would implode and spontaneously combust in flames.
- 2:56Speaker 3: They cannot do that, And so they've got a problem
- 3:00Speaker 3: because if you're a Democrat and you want the Democrats
- 3:02Speaker 3: to win, most Democrats that break into double digits in
- 3:08Speaker 3: the IQ say Kamala is a really bad candidate, Like, wow,
- 3:13Speaker 3: we don't want Kamala to be the candidate.
- 3:15Speaker 2: But and remind, remind people she was one of the
- 3:19Speaker 2: first people to drop out and when she ran for
- 3:22Speaker 2: president because she didn't connect with anyone.
- 3:24Speaker 3: Yeah, she got she couldn't figure out who she was.
- 3:27Speaker 3: Is she a liberal? Is she a moderate? What like
- 3:29Speaker 3: she was all over the place. Her approval ratings are
- 3:32Speaker 3: worse than Joe Biden's, which is hard because his approval
- 3:35Speaker 3: ratings are terrible. And look, I'm going to try to
- 3:40Speaker 3: frame this politely. I think it is a reasonable prediction
- 3:45Speaker 3: that Kamala will not be winning any Nobel Prizes in
- 3:48Speaker 3: the future.
- 3:50Speaker 1: I think that's a good way of putting it.
- 3:51Speaker 2: And I think the Democratic Party knows that that's the
- 3:53Speaker 2: reason why they're trying to figure out. Okay, if it
- 3:56Speaker 2: isn't Joe Biden, who do we get and how do
- 3:58Speaker 2: we all Floadamala? Well, then you'd have to pick a woman,
- 4:02Speaker 2: and who better than Michelle is not just.
- 4:04Speaker 3: A woman, an African American woman, And so from the
- 4:07Speaker 3: Democrat Party's perspective, that really is a set of one.
- 4:10Speaker 3: They couldn't push her aside for, you know, for a
- 4:15Speaker 3: house member, for a low like you can't push the
- 4:17Speaker 3: sitting Vice president aside for someone further down the political
- 4:22Speaker 3: pecking order. So there is literally one person on planet
- 4:26Speaker 3: Earth who the Democrat Party could tolerate pushing Kamala aside for,
- 4:31Speaker 3: and that is Michelle Obama. And Michelle Obama is a
- 4:34Speaker 3: first for or first lady. She sort of stands on
- 4:36Speaker 3: a different footing. And so we did a podcast several
- 4:40Speaker 3: months ago that got a ton of attention and people
- 4:42Speaker 3: noticed where I said, I think the chances of risen
- 4:45Speaker 3: dramatically of Michelle Obama. Now, at the time, my assessment
- 4:51Speaker 3: was that it was about thirty five percent that Michelle
- 4:55Speaker 3: Obama would be the nominee. Now that's I still don't
- 4:58Speaker 3: think didn't think it was more likely than not. But
- 5:01Speaker 3: going from zero to thirty five percent, that ain't nothing. Now,
- 5:05Speaker 3: in just a second, we're going to play for you
- 5:07Speaker 3: this interview Michelle did. I think this interview is incredibly
- 5:11Speaker 3: revealing and it's caused me to change the percentage that
- 5:15Speaker 3: I put as to the likelihood of Michelle being the nominee.
- 5:18Speaker 3: But before I tell you how it changed, let's listen
- 5:21Speaker 3: to what she said on this podcast interview.
- 5:24Speaker 1: What is the thing that keeps you up at night?
- 5:27Speaker 2: Now?
- 5:27Speaker 1: Well, what is your biggest fear? Now after having overcome
- 5:31Speaker 1: so many It.
- 5:31Speaker 4: Has less to do with me personally and more to
- 5:34Speaker 4: do with the world that we're in.
- 5:36Speaker 1: There's such a thing as knowing too much.
- 5:39Speaker 4: And when you've been married to the president of the
- 5:41Speaker 4: United States, who knows everything about everything in the world.
- 5:45Speaker 1: Sometimes you just want to do you know too much? Right,
- 5:47Speaker 1: it's I don't know.
- 5:48Speaker 4: I don't want to know what was in that folder
- 5:51Speaker 4: that you just got that made you quiet, you know,
- 5:54Speaker 4: I don't want to know why the security just pulled
- 5:57Speaker 4: you over. I mean, it could be any range of
- 6:00Speaker 4: things that comes across the desk of the leader of
- 6:03Speaker 4: the free world. Right, So I know a lot about
- 6:06Speaker 4: what's going on, and what keeps me up are the
- 6:10Speaker 4: things that I know. The war in the region in
- 6:14Speaker 4: too many regions, What is AI going to do for us?
- 6:18Speaker 4: The environment? You know, are we moving at all fast enough?
- 6:22Speaker 4: What are we doing about education? Are people going to vote?
- 6:26Speaker 4: And why aren't people voting? Are we too stuck to
- 6:29Speaker 4: our phones? I mean, those are the things that keep
- 6:32Speaker 4: me up because you don't have control over them, and
- 6:36Speaker 4: you wonder where are people at? Where are we in
- 6:39Speaker 4: this you know, where are our hearts? What's going to
- 6:42Speaker 4: happen in this next election? I am terrified about what
- 6:46Speaker 4: could possibly happen because our leaders matter, who we select,
- 6:51Speaker 4: who speaks for us, who holds that bullied pulpit. It
- 6:55Speaker 4: affects us in ways that sometimes I think people take
- 6:58Speaker 4: for granted, you know the fact that people think that government,
- 7:02Speaker 4: you know, does it really even do anything? And I'm like,
- 7:06Speaker 4: oh my god, does government do everything for us? And
- 7:10Speaker 4: we cannot take this democracy for granted? And sometimes I
- 7:14Speaker 4: worry that we do. Those are the things that keep
- 7:17Speaker 4: me up, Senator.
- 7:18Speaker 2: Those comments, they were not off the cuff. It was
- 7:22Speaker 2: obvious she wanted to cover that, she wanted to get
- 7:24Speaker 2: it out there. It was well thought out, well said,
- 7:28Speaker 2: and that's the reason why when I heard I go,
- 7:30Speaker 2: oh my gosh, she's literally floating herself.
- 7:33Speaker 3: Well, I think two things really stand out for those comments.
- 7:37Speaker 3: Number One, the biggest argument that is given against why
- 7:41Speaker 3: Michelle would be the nominee, as people say she doesn't
- 7:43Speaker 3: want it. She hasn't run before, she doesn't have the
- 7:46Speaker 3: fire in the belly. She has a great life. She
- 7:49Speaker 3: has a life of a movie star at a celebrity.
- 7:52Speaker 3: She has a life of George Clooney or Oprah or
- 7:56Speaker 3: Bruce Springsteen. She hangs out Martha's vine. She's got a
- 8:00Speaker 3: couple hundred million dollars, she flies on private jets. She
- 8:04Speaker 3: doesn't want to be president. And what is really striking
- 8:08Speaker 3: there is where she's like the thing that keeps me
- 8:11Speaker 3: up at night is who's going to be the next
- 8:13Speaker 3: leader of the free world? And she says, you know,
- 8:15Speaker 3: what does government do? She goes, oh, my god, government
- 8:18Speaker 3: does everything in our lives. Now, that's a pretty powerful
- 8:22Speaker 3: refutation of the point that she doesn't care if it's
- 8:25Speaker 3: keeping her up at night, and she thinks government does
- 8:28Speaker 3: everything in the question of who's going to be the
- 8:30Speaker 3: leader of the free world, it is what is filling
- 8:32Speaker 3: her mind. Okay, that's significant. And then the second thing
- 8:37Speaker 3: she says, where she's talking about being first lady, and
- 8:39Speaker 3: she says, I know a lot, and she basically is
- 8:44Speaker 3: like pitching her qualifications, like everything she knows because she
- 8:49Speaker 3: was married to Barack Obama when he was president and
- 8:51Speaker 3: still is today. That that that that she like knows
- 8:55Speaker 3: everything the president needs to know. And you're right, it
- 8:58Speaker 3: does feel a little bit like a pitch. Hey guys,
- 9:00Speaker 3: I'm here, I'm ready, I can step in, and I'm
- 9:04Speaker 3: willing to do it. And so I would change, as
- 9:07Speaker 3: I said, my assessment a couple of months ago was
- 9:10Speaker 3: the odds of Michelle being the nominee were thirty five percent.
- 9:14Speaker 3: Based on this interview, I would change those odds from
- 9:18Speaker 3: thirty five percent to forty five percent. I still think
- 9:22Speaker 3: it is slightly more likely than not that Biden remains
- 9:26Speaker 3: the nominee, but I think it's fifty five to forty five.
- 9:28Speaker 3: I think it is almost a coin flip. And candidly,
- 9:33Speaker 3: I had been hoping the thing that might save America
- 9:38Speaker 3: is that Michelle would be selfish enough to say, I
- 9:41Speaker 3: don't want the nomination, even if you hand it to me,
- 9:44Speaker 3: even if it's a coronation, even if I don't have
- 9:46Speaker 3: to run for two years, even if I'm just like
- 9:49Speaker 3: invited into the Oval office with the blow of a trumpet,
- 9:53Speaker 3: I don't want it because I like my life. Like
- 9:56Speaker 3: I would really like Michelle to say that, because I
- 9:58Speaker 3: think if she's the Democrat nominee, it is incredibly dangerous.
- 10:03Speaker 3: She is a dangerous, dangerous, dangerous nominee because the first
- 10:08Speaker 3: Lady has a patina of teflon. She's not perceived as
- 10:14Speaker 3: overly partisan, she's not perceived as combative. Now I think
- 10:18Speaker 3: she's incredibly partisan. I think she's more partisan than baraque
- 10:22Speaker 3: is and was as president. But look, if you look
- 10:26Speaker 3: at the polling numbers, Michelle Obama is the most popular
- 10:30Speaker 3: woman on the face of the planet. And that's just
- 10:32Speaker 3: objectively true. And a first lady is protected by that,
- 10:36Speaker 3: particularly a first lady that had eight years of the
- 10:40Speaker 3: media and Hollywood just singing her praises. And so I
- 10:45Speaker 3: listened to that interview and frankly, it scares the heck
- 10:48Speaker 3: out of me.
- 10:48Speaker 2: Well, let me ask you one other question and just
- 10:51Speaker 2: remind people how this scenario could become reality if they
- 10:55Speaker 2: maybe missed that episode where we talked about this. If
- 10:58Speaker 2: Democrats wanted to allow Joe Biden, the place to do
- 11:02Speaker 2: it would be at the convention, and explain how this
- 11:06Speaker 2: could go down very quickly where Michelle Obama hypothetically could
- 11:10Speaker 2: then have a campaign that would basically be two months
- 11:13Speaker 2: in some days, that's it, because she wouldn't have to
- 11:17Speaker 2: run a real campaign. You could also argue that there's
- 11:20Speaker 2: a very good chance she then wouldn't even have to
- 11:22Speaker 2: debate if Donald Trump is the nominee, for example, because
- 11:25Speaker 2: it's a two month plus campaign.
- 11:28Speaker 3: Well, and look, that's one of the things people say
- 11:30Speaker 3: in response to this is they say, look, we don't
- 11:32Speaker 3: think Michelle wants it because she didn't run in twenty sixteen,
- 11:35Speaker 3: she didn't run in twenty twenty. If she wanted to run,
- 11:38Speaker 3: they say she's not Hillary Clinton. She didn't dive in
- 11:40Speaker 3: immediately and want to be the candidate on the ballot.
- 11:42Speaker 3: That's what Hillary did after Bill was president. Is Hillary
- 11:45Speaker 3: is like me, me, me, and Michelle did not do that.
- 11:49Speaker 3: I think it's a very different decision for Michelle a
- 11:54Speaker 3: year plus ago to ask do I jump in? Do
- 11:57Speaker 3: I spend two years running? Look, run for president is
- 12:01Speaker 3: brutally hard. I know this from first ten knowledge. I
- 12:04Speaker 3: loved every minute of it. But it ain't easy. It's
- 12:06Speaker 3: all consuming. And Michelle knows that. I mean she knows
- 12:09Speaker 3: that uniquely, and that she was side by side Barack
- 12:13Speaker 3: Obama worked his butt off running for president. He was
- 12:16Speaker 3: a phenom of the modern age. And so she made
- 12:21Speaker 3: the decision in sixteen and in twenty and in twenty three,
- 12:26Speaker 3: preparing for the twenty four election not to jump in.
- 12:30Speaker 3: It's a very different cost benefit analysis to say, do
- 12:35Speaker 3: you come in in the summertime in the convention? Are
- 12:40Speaker 3: you handed the nomination without having to debate a single
- 12:43Speaker 3: primary opponent, without having the campaign, without having to fight,
- 12:47Speaker 3: and do you have a three month campaign where the
- 12:49Speaker 3: media will be singing hosannas that Saint Michelle has come
- 12:54Speaker 3: to save us. That's a very different cost benefit analysis.
- 12:58Speaker 3: And I got to say, the number of people on
- 13:01Speaker 3: planet Earth who, if you were offered jump in for
- 13:05Speaker 3: three months and you can become president, who would say no,
- 13:09Speaker 3: is really small. There may be some, but man, I
- 13:13Speaker 3: know for a fact, if I told you right now, hey,
- 13:15Speaker 3: jump in the summer, you can be president November or
- 13:18Speaker 3: elected president November and start in January, you'd be a yes.
- 13:21Speaker 3: I'd certainly be a yes. And it's a much wider
- 13:26Speaker 3: set than the people who are psychotic enough to actually
- 13:28Speaker 3: run for president.
- 13:30Speaker 2: Yeah, and what an easy road. I mean, it would
- 13:32Speaker 2: just not it's a coronation. It's not an election. It's
- 13:35Speaker 2: a coronation. But I got to say, if I were
- 13:38Speaker 2: David Axelrod, if I were a Democrat strategist, I would
- 13:41Speaker 2: be all in on this.
- 13:42Speaker 3: I'd be like, this is how we keep our radical
- 13:46Speaker 3: left wing agenda going. Joe Biden has so many faults.
- 13:50Speaker 3: And by the way, Axelrod has floated trial balloons the media.
- 13:53Speaker 3: Who is the left wing of the Democrat Party. They
- 13:55Speaker 3: keep floating trial balloons of gosh, Biden's a really crappy
- 13:59Speaker 3: can like, let's sing his praises, let's say thank you
- 14:03Speaker 3: for coming in for four years, but let's put them
- 14:05Speaker 3: on an ice float and push them out into the Arctic.
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- 15:28Speaker 2: also back to this bigger issue a part two of
- 15:32Speaker 2: this conversation that we started, and if you missed it
- 15:34Speaker 2: in our last show, you got to go back and
- 15:37Speaker 2: listen to part one. And this has been a dive
- 15:41Speaker 2: into this case from Colorado that's going to the Supreme
- 15:44Speaker 2: Court and what is going to happen there. And you
- 15:48Speaker 2: wanted to break down the history as well behind the
- 15:52Speaker 2: premise of this whole argument, uh, with insurrection et cetera,
- 15:56Speaker 2: and the president not being convicted of that.
- 15:59Speaker 1: Uh.
- 15:59Speaker 2: And I want to pick it up there because this
- 16:01Speaker 2: is going to be something that moves and it's going
- 16:04Speaker 2: to have a major impact on the future of this
- 16:07Speaker 2: country as well.
- 16:09Speaker 3: Well. That's right, And I want to encourage listeners. If
- 16:12Speaker 3: you didn't listen to Monday's podcast, you ought to go
- 16:15Speaker 3: back and listen to it because in that podcast, I
- 16:18Speaker 3: break down what I believe the Supreme Court is going
- 16:20Speaker 3: to do in the Colorado appeal, the decision about whether
- 16:23Speaker 3: Donald Trump can be on the presidential ballot, and I
- 16:26Speaker 3: explain why I believe the Supreme Court is going to
- 16:28Speaker 3: reverse Colorado, and I think there's a very real chance.
- 16:31Speaker 3: I think it is more likely than not that the
- 16:33Speaker 3: decision from the Supreme Court is unanimous. And I go
- 16:36Speaker 3: through each of the arguments that Trump is making and
- 16:39Speaker 3: I give my assessment of him. Some of the arguments
- 16:41Speaker 3: are stronger than other arguments, and I lay out the
- 16:44Speaker 3: theory that I think is going to command a unanimous
- 16:46Speaker 3: Supreme Court decision, And it's the sort of thing I
- 16:50Speaker 3: have to admit, Ben, you and I have done a
- 16:52Speaker 3: lot of podcasts. Monday's podcast is one of my favorites
- 16:56Speaker 3: that we've ever done because the content in it, I
- 17:01Speaker 3: believe you can't get anywhere else, Like there's literally no
- 17:05Speaker 3: other source, there's no other podcast, there's no other news
- 17:07Speaker 3: broadcast that there's no other source that has that content.
- 17:11Speaker 3: And it's one of the reasons I love doing this
- 17:14Speaker 3: podcast because we walk through issues at a level of
- 17:17Speaker 3: detail and substance that it just doesn't exist elsewhere.
- 17:22Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, it was one of my favorite shows
- 17:24Speaker 2: as well, and it's amazing how many people actually responded
- 17:27Speaker 2: going I can't wait for part two, because you clearly
- 17:29Speaker 2: weren't done explaining how this is going to work through
- 17:32Speaker 2: the Supreme Court.
- 17:33Speaker 1: Let's pick it up there.
- 17:34Speaker 3: Okay, So the Supreme Court has addressed what the Fourteenth
- 17:38Speaker 3: Amendment in section three means, and it's addressed it a
- 17:40Speaker 3: couple of times. First of all, it addressed it concerning
- 17:44Speaker 3: Jefferson Davis. Now, Jefferson Davis was the head of the
- 17:48Speaker 3: Confederacy and what happened after the Civil Wars. The United
- 17:53Speaker 3: States indicted Jefferson Davis in Virginia for treason, and Jefferson
- 17:58Speaker 3: Davis argued in response that the Fourteenth Amendment Section three
- 18:05Speaker 3: imposed a penalty that barred a treason prosecution. Davis argued
- 18:11Speaker 3: that that section three was an exclusive criminal punishment, and
- 18:15Speaker 3: he said that applying it to him would violate double jeopardy.
- 18:21Speaker 3: And he argued, as part of that also that section
- 18:24Speaker 3: three was self enforcing. We talked about this in the
- 18:27Speaker 3: last podcast. Self enforcing means a provision of the Constitution
- 18:31Speaker 3: that doesn't need additional legislation to give it effect, but
- 18:35Speaker 3: rather has legal effect on its own. And in response,
- 18:39Speaker 3: the United States argued Section three was not a punishment,
- 18:44Speaker 3: or that if it was, that exclusion from future office
- 18:48Speaker 3: was not the exclusive punishment. And in response to that,
- 18:57Speaker 3: whether Section three the Davis the Jefferson Davis treason prosecution
- 19:05Speaker 3: was never fully resolved. And what happened was there was
- 19:09Speaker 3: a district judge named John Underwood who disagreed with the
- 19:14Speaker 3: Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Justice Chase, and the
- 19:18Speaker 3: issue was then certified for appeal to the U. S.
- 19:21Speaker 3: Supreme Court. But then President Andrew Johnson gave Jefferson Davis
- 19:26Speaker 3: a pardon, and once he was pardoned, it rendered the
- 19:28Speaker 3: case moot because you didn't have to adjudicate whether he
- 19:31Speaker 3: could be tried for treason because he'd been pardoned, So
- 19:33Speaker 3: he couldn't be tried for treason once he was pardoned.
- 19:37Speaker 3: And so that was one issue where there was a dispute.
- 19:41Speaker 3: But secondly, the very same judges gave a different reading
- 19:45Speaker 3: over Section three dealing with black defendants in Virginia. So
- 19:51Speaker 3: you had number one, Jefferson Davis, the head of the Confederacy.
- 19:54Speaker 3: They had one determination. And then there were some black
- 19:57Speaker 3: criminal defendants who were sentenced, tried, and sentenced by state
- 20:02Speaker 3: judges and there was a challenge to those convictions arguing
- 20:09Speaker 3: that those state judges could not serve in office because
- 20:13Speaker 3: they had been in the Confederacy, and they were contrary
- 20:18Speaker 3: to the ban on people who'd taken an oath of
- 20:21Speaker 3: office to support the Constitution then engaging in an insurrection.
- 20:27Speaker 3: And what happened was that Virginia appealed. So the district
- 20:33Speaker 3: judge granted a writ of habeas corpus, which is, in
- 20:36Speaker 3: other words, it ordered that black defendants be released from
- 20:40Speaker 3: criminal imprisonment. And Virginia appealed that, and it went to
- 20:45Speaker 3: Chief Justice Salomon Chase in his capacity as circuit judge.
- 20:49Speaker 3: And so in nineteen sixty nine, the Chief Justice reversed
- 20:53Speaker 3: the decision of Judge Underwood in a decision that is
- 20:58Speaker 3: known as Griffin's case. Griffin's case is significant because it
- 21:03Speaker 3: is it is the most meaningful Supreme Court adjudication of
- 21:10Speaker 3: what the Fourteenth Amendment, Section three means. Now it's a
- 21:14Speaker 3: lone justice, it's not the full court, but it still
- 21:17Speaker 3: has presidential effect. Now, what did the Chief Justice say? Well,
- 21:22Speaker 3: on the merits of the Section three case. The Chief
- 21:25Speaker 3: Justice began with first principles, and this is a quote
- 21:28Speaker 3: from his opinion. What was the intention of the people
- 21:31Speaker 3: of the United States? In adopting the Fourteenth Amendment, what
- 21:34Speaker 3: is the true scope of the purpose of the prohibition
- 21:36Speaker 3: to hold office contained in the third section, And before
- 21:40Speaker 3: answering those questions, Chief Justice Chase said that quote a
- 21:45Speaker 3: construction which must necessarily occasion great public and private mischief
- 21:51Speaker 3: must never be preferred to a construction which will occasion neither,
- 21:58Speaker 3: and neither in so great a degree, unless the terms
- 22:01Speaker 3: of the instrument absolutely require such preference. And he went
- 22:07Speaker 3: on to say the practical aspects of Section three. The
- 22:12Speaker 3: Chief Justice said, the text preferred reading quote best harmonizes
- 22:17Speaker 3: the amendment with the general terms and spirit of the
- 22:21Speaker 3: Act Amendment. The principle forbids a construction of the Amendment
- 22:26Speaker 3: not clearly required by its terms, which will bring into
- 22:29Speaker 3: conflict or discord with other provisions of the Constitution. And
- 22:36Speaker 3: after that, Chase wrote, quote those provisions of the Constitution
- 22:41Speaker 3: which deny to the legislature power to deprive any person life, liberty,
- 22:45Speaker 3: or property without due process of law, or to pass
- 22:47Speaker 3: a bill of attainder or an ex post facto, are
- 22:50Speaker 3: inconsistent with their spirit and the general purpose. With a
- 22:54Speaker 3: provision Section three which at once, without trial deprives a
- 23:01Speaker 3: whole class of persons of offices held by them. And
- 23:07Speaker 3: as a result, the Chief Justice offered a solution to
- 23:11Speaker 3: what he said were the practical and legal difficulties with
- 23:15Speaker 3: giving Section three a literal interpretation. He said Section three
- 23:19Speaker 3: was not self executing, and he said it could not
- 23:23Speaker 3: be self executing, and he said that Congress did not
- 23:27Speaker 3: implement Section three in Virginia until February eighteen sixty nine,
- 23:31Speaker 3: when a joint resolution ordered the military commanders to remove
- 23:34Speaker 3: ineligible officers who had not received amnesty from Congress. And
- 23:39Speaker 3: so the habeas petition granted by the District judge Judge
- 23:42Speaker 3: Underwood predated the joint resolution, which meant the grants were
- 23:46Speaker 3: erroneous because the trial judges were not ineligible. What that
- 23:51Speaker 3: means that there's a lot of legal jargon there. So
- 23:55Speaker 3: if you're not a lawyer constitutional.
- 23:57Speaker 2: Scholarship, I was only going to laugh and say, oh, okay,
- 24:00Speaker 2: put that in layman terms, so I understand it, and
- 24:02Speaker 2: everyone else listening because I'm even confused on it and
- 24:06Speaker 2: paying close attention.
- 24:07Speaker 3: Look, and this is nineteenth century, and so nineteenth century
- 24:10Speaker 3: judges spoke in some jargons, So I'd read you the language,
- 24:13Speaker 3: but I get it's not easy to understand. It's not
- 24:16Speaker 3: easy to understand for modern day lawyers, much less for
- 24:19Speaker 3: non lawyers. But what he is saying is that the
- 24:23Speaker 3: prohibition on Confederate officers serving in office is not self executing.
- 24:30Speaker 3: It doesn't go into effect on its own, but it
- 24:33Speaker 3: needs rather an act of Congress to give it force.
- 24:36Speaker 3: And understand what was happening here. These were state district
- 24:40Speaker 3: judges who had presided over criminal trials, so they were just,
- 24:43Speaker 3: you know, a judge that you had criminal defendants who
- 24:46Speaker 3: had committed crimes. And the argument of the criminal defense
- 24:49Speaker 3: lawyers were was, Hey, these judges had previously taken an
- 24:56Speaker 3: oath to defend the Constitution and then they supported the Confederacy,
- 24:59Speaker 3: so they're they are for they're ineligible to serve as
- 25:03Speaker 3: state judges under Fourteenth Amendment, Section three. And therefore my
- 25:08Speaker 3: criminal conviction is not valid because the judge that presided
- 25:11Speaker 3: over it doesn't have the authority to serve in it.
- 25:14Speaker 3: And what Chief Justice Chase concluded was, No, that's not
- 25:20Speaker 3: true because Congress did not legislate to give that effect. Now,
- 25:25Speaker 3: do I think this determination is binding and conclusive on
- 25:29Speaker 3: the court.
- 25:30Speaker 4: No.
- 25:31Speaker 3: And the way it works a decision by an individual justice.
- 25:34Speaker 3: So the way it worked, Supreme Court justices used to
- 25:39Speaker 3: do what was called ride circuit, and so the justice's
- 25:43Speaker 3: riding circuit, and it was literally riding circuit meant in
- 25:46Speaker 3: many cases getting on a horse and riding around the circuit.
- 25:51Speaker 3: Each justice had a different judicial circus circuit that they
- 25:54Speaker 3: were the appellate judge for, and they would hear appeals
- 25:58Speaker 3: as individual judges. In some way, it sort of functioned
- 26:01Speaker 3: like they were the Court of Appeals. And look, this
- 26:03Speaker 3: is relatively early in our country's history, so you didn't
- 26:06Speaker 3: have the full court of appeals system we have now.
- 26:10Speaker 3: A decision by an individual justice riding circuit does not
- 26:13Speaker 3: have the presidential force of a US Supreme Court decision
- 26:20Speaker 3: joined by a majority of the court. That is binding
- 26:22Speaker 3: Supreme Court president and an individual circuit justice is not.
- 26:26Speaker 3: But the decision of a circuit justice is considered persuasive.
- 26:30Speaker 3: It's not binding, but it has real force. And in
- 26:34Speaker 3: this case, it's the Chief Justice of the United States
- 26:37Speaker 3: opining on what the Fourteenth Amendment meant. And so I
- 26:41Speaker 3: think in the Supreme Court argument that will happen on
- 26:44Speaker 3: February eighth, you will see a lot of argument about
- 26:47Speaker 3: Griffin's case. The DOJ will argue that there's a lot
- 26:51Speaker 3: of modern day scholarly criticism that they don't like Chief
- 26:55Speaker 3: Justice chases reasoning in Griffin's case. But this is going
- 26:59Speaker 3: to be a major topic of discussion in the oral argument.
- 27:03Speaker 2: When you look at which side has the strongest argument
- 27:06Speaker 2: and compare it to the weakest. Who walks in with
- 27:08Speaker 2: the biggest advantage with these Supreme Court justices as it
- 27:12Speaker 2: sits now.
- 27:14Speaker 3: So, and this is something I explained in the last podcast. Look,
- 27:18Speaker 3: I try to think. Let me tell you how I
- 27:20Speaker 3: approached arguments. I really enjoyed being a Supreme Court litigator.
- 27:23Speaker 3: It was an incredible joy. And the way I.
- 27:26Speaker 2: Appros by the way I got to ask you this
- 27:28Speaker 2: question now because everybody listening is gonna want me to
- 27:30Speaker 2: ask it, and I'm gonna ask it. Yeah, people hear
- 27:33Speaker 2: the name Ted Cruz and they know that obviously you
- 27:35Speaker 2: ran for president twenty sixteen, that you love being a
- 27:38Speaker 2: United States senator. But every time I go around, and
- 27:41Speaker 2: it happens multiple times a month, you're like, man, I
- 27:44Speaker 2: wish Ted Cruz was on the Supreme Court.
- 27:46Speaker 1: Why isn't he on the Supreme Court.
- 27:48Speaker 2: It should he have been on the Supreme Court because
- 27:50Speaker 2: you're so good at it and you love it. So
- 27:52Speaker 2: can you dive into that for just a moment, because
- 27:54Speaker 2: everybody asked me that question and I always laugh and
- 27:57Speaker 2: I'm like, well, there's some backstories there, but why isn't
- 28:01Speaker 2: Ted Cruz on the Supreme Court?
- 28:03Speaker 3: Yeah? Look, it is a very flattering. It is a
- 28:06Speaker 3: very kind thing to say. And as you know, as
- 28:08Speaker 3: I travel around, people say to me with some regularity,
- 28:12Speaker 3: you should be a Supreme Court justice. And look my
- 28:14Speaker 3: response when someone says that, I just say thank you,
- 28:15Speaker 3: because that's Look, that is an incredibly gratifying thing to say.
- 28:21Speaker 3: The short answer is I do not want to be
- 28:23Speaker 3: on the Supreme Court. I and when Donald Trump was president,
- 28:29Speaker 3: that opportunity was very real. So for all three of
- 28:33Speaker 3: the vacancies that occurred under Trump, Trump had very serious
- 28:38Speaker 3: conversations with me about them. The most serious concerned the
- 28:42Speaker 3: initial vacancy, which was Justice Scalia's seat that was vacant
- 28:46Speaker 3: and was ultimately replaced by Justice Corsic. And right after
- 28:51Speaker 3: the presidential election in twenty sixteen, in November, I flew
- 28:54Speaker 3: up the next week to New York I went to
- 28:55Speaker 3: Trump Tower. I spent four and a half hours with
- 28:58Speaker 3: with President Elector and with his senior team, and he
- 29:03Speaker 3: spent an enormous amount of time really leaning in and
- 29:07Speaker 3: frankly trying to convince me that the Supreme Court was
- 29:10Speaker 3: a great option. Now, I don't want to overstate it.
- 29:12Speaker 3: He didn't offer me the position, but it was not
- 29:16Speaker 3: subtle what he was saying and what his team was saying.
- 29:18Speaker 3: They were all like, what the hell's wrong with you?
- 29:20Speaker 3: Why don't you want to go to the Supreme Court.
- 29:23Speaker 3: Here's the answer. I think the court matters exquisitely. I've
- 29:28Speaker 3: spent other than my time in the Senate, I've spent
- 29:31Speaker 3: almost my entire adult life litigating in front of the
- 29:35Speaker 3: US Supreme Court. I think it is an incredibly important
- 29:38Speaker 3: institution for the rule of law, for our constitutional liberties,
- 29:41Speaker 3: for our freedoms in America. A principled federal judge stays
- 29:48Speaker 3: out of politics and stays out of policy fights. And
- 29:52Speaker 3: if I were a federal judge, that's what I would do.
- 29:55Speaker 3: I would stay out of those fights. The simple answer, Ben,
- 29:59Speaker 3: I don't want to stay on are those fights. I
- 30:01Speaker 3: think policy fights in political fights matter intensely and frankly, listen.
- 30:07Speaker 3: I think there are a lot of people who are
- 30:09Speaker 3: wonderful human beings who want to be tremendous judges or justices,
- 30:13Speaker 3: and I would like to be involved in nominating or
- 30:16Speaker 3: confirming scores of wonderful constitutionalists to the federal bench. I
- 30:22Speaker 3: don't want me to be one of them, because if
- 30:24Speaker 3: you want to fight in the political arena, the right
- 30:27Speaker 3: place to do so is in the elected positions and government.
- 30:32Speaker 3: So I'm in the United States Senate. I think of
- 30:34Speaker 3: the Senate as the Roman colisseum. And to be honest, look,
- 30:40Speaker 3: I how many people do you know in the Senate
- 30:43Speaker 3: that are actually standing up and fighting this fight every day.
- 30:46Speaker 3: It's a small number. I'm not going to give you
- 30:48Speaker 3: a number, but it's not huge that are effectively going
- 30:53Speaker 3: to battle day in and day out, defending the Constitution,
- 30:57Speaker 3: the Bill of Rights, defending conservative principles, defending our value.
- 31:00Speaker 3: And I jump out of bed every day eager to
- 31:03Speaker 3: do that fight. And so when Trump talked to me
- 31:06Speaker 3: very seriously about the Supreme Court, I told him flat out, no,
- 31:10Speaker 3: I don't want it. I wouldn't accept it. I am
- 31:12Speaker 3: not interested in being on the Court. I care profoundly
- 31:16Speaker 3: about who's on the court.
- 31:17Speaker 2: But it amy one other question I want to ask
- 31:20Speaker 2: you about this case moving forward. You predicted that this
- 31:25Speaker 2: is going to be probably a very stern Supreme Court
- 31:29Speaker 2: on this issue with Colorado. As your mind changed at
- 31:33Speaker 2: all since we did part one on that, I mean,
- 31:36Speaker 2: you're back in DC. You've seen, I guess more of
- 31:38Speaker 2: the press reaction, You've seen more of the reaction in Washington.
- 31:42Speaker 2: Do you still think that the Supreme Court is eager
- 31:44Speaker 2: to not only take this up, but also to say, hey,
- 31:47Speaker 2: you can't in America, In the United States of America
- 31:50Speaker 2: right now, we let the people decide. We don't let
- 31:53Speaker 2: people dictate who you can and can't vote for.
- 31:57Speaker 3: So let me say I wouldn't say eager is the
- 32:00Speaker 3: right adjective. They're not eager. The Court would love to
- 32:04Speaker 3: stay out of this. They don't want to be involved
- 32:06Speaker 3: in this presidential election. They want to stay out of it.
- 32:09Speaker 3: But once Colorado ruled that they were pulling Trump off
- 32:12Speaker 3: the ballot, the Court had to get in. And I
- 32:16Speaker 3: actually think every justice recognized, Okay, we've got a responsibility.
- 32:21Speaker 3: We can't duck this. We've got to resolve this because
- 32:25Speaker 3: this is the court exists to resolve the most important
- 32:29Speaker 3: legal issues in the country, particularly concerning the constitution, and
- 32:33Speaker 3: whether you will allow the voters to vote for a
- 32:37Speaker 3: candidate for president is right at the top of it.
- 32:41Speaker 3: Is difficult to imagine a more consequential constitutional issue than that,
- 32:46Speaker 3: and so I think every justice recognized, even though they
- 32:49Speaker 3: didn't want to be in this, they had a responsibility
- 32:52Speaker 3: and they really had no choice. Now, I also believe
- 32:55Speaker 3: the odds are overwhelming, close to one hundred percent the
- 33:00Speaker 3: Supreme Court will reverse the Colorado Supreme Court. I just
- 33:04Speaker 3: I do not believe they are going to allow one
- 33:09Speaker 3: of the two major parties candidates for president to be
- 33:11Speaker 3: removed from the ballot and to tell the voters you
- 33:14Speaker 3: don't get to decide who the president is. That is
- 33:17Speaker 3: contrary to democracy. It is an assault on democracy. Ironically,
- 33:23Speaker 3: while Joe Biden is prancing around and proclaiming his defense
- 33:29Speaker 3: for democracy, he and the Democrats and the media are
- 33:33Speaker 3: trying to utterly frustrate democracy and stop the voters from
- 33:37Speaker 3: voting for their opponents. I think the Court is going
- 33:40Speaker 3: to easily reverse it, and I desperately hope. I got
- 33:45Speaker 3: to say, there are very few things I have hoped
- 33:47Speaker 3: for more passionately that I can recall than that. I
- 33:52Speaker 3: hope that this is unanimous. If it's six ' three,
- 33:55Speaker 3: If it's the Conservatives voting to reverse and the Liberals
- 33:58Speaker 3: voting to affirm, that is bad for the Supreme Court.
- 34:02Speaker 3: It is bad for the country. It is bad for
- 34:04Speaker 3: the rule of law. It will cement the perception that
- 34:09Speaker 3: the Court is a political body, and that is disastrous
- 34:12Speaker 3: for the Court. I am certain that there is no
- 34:17Speaker 3: human being on the planet that feels that urgency more
- 34:20Speaker 3: intensely than Chief Justice John Roberts. I know John Roberts
- 34:23Speaker 3: very very well. We've been friends for thirty years. He
- 34:26Speaker 3: cares exquisitely about the legitimacy of the Supreme Court. And
- 34:32Speaker 3: so I think the Chief Justice is going to ben
- 34:34Speaker 3: over backwards to find any theory that would produce a
- 34:40Speaker 3: unanimous decision. There are lots of theories he could do.
- 34:43Speaker 3: The one I find most persuasive. If I had if
- 34:47Speaker 3: Trump had offered me the Scalia seat and I'd gotten
- 34:51Speaker 3: the nomination in the place of Gorsa to the Senate,
- 34:53Speaker 3: he confirmed me if I were a justice, the theory
- 34:57Speaker 3: that I would be inclined to agree with is what
- 35:01Speaker 3: I laid out on the last podcast, which is it
- 35:04Speaker 3: is absolutely true and I think correct that if an
- 35:11Speaker 3: individual engages in insurrection, they're not eligible to be elected
- 35:17Speaker 3: to federal office. I'm convinced of that. However, what is
- 35:23Speaker 3: not clear is how you determine whether someone quote engaged
- 35:28Speaker 3: in insurrection. As I described in the last podcast, the
- 35:32Speaker 3: Civil War was indisputably an insurrection. No one can dispute
- 35:35Speaker 3: that we had a four year war with six hundred
- 35:38Speaker 3: thousand dead Americans. Like it is why the Fourteenth Amendment,
- 35:43Speaker 3: Section three was passed. It was in response to the
- 35:46Speaker 3: Civil War. It is the embodiment of an insurrection. There
- 35:49Speaker 3: is a real and acute debate over whether what occurred
- 35:54Speaker 3: on January sixth, twenty twenty one constitute an insurrection. I
- 35:59Speaker 3: think the answer is easy. I think the answer is
- 36:00Speaker 3: hell no. I don't think it remotely reaches that level.
- 36:03Speaker 3: But there are those who disagree. I will acknowledge there's
- 36:06Speaker 3: disagreement with almost every damn Democrat and all of the media.
- 36:10Speaker 3: They say routine the insurrection, insurrection, and insurrection. However, the
- 36:15Speaker 3: constitutional question is, how do you determine that someone has
- 36:21Speaker 3: engaged in an insurrection in the Civil War. Since nobody
- 36:25Speaker 3: disputed the Civil War was an insurrection. The only question
- 36:29Speaker 3: did you engage in it? So if you put on
- 36:30Speaker 3: a Confederate uniform, if you had stars stars on your shoulder,
- 36:35Speaker 3: you were guilty. Like that, it was easy to determine
- 36:39Speaker 3: whether you fell into that disqualification.
- 36:41Speaker 1: Yeah, it was as simple as you could make it
- 36:43Speaker 1: at that point.
- 36:44Speaker 3: Yeah, there was no No one disputed the Civil War
- 36:47Speaker 3: was an insurrection. And I'm not aware of anyone that
- 36:51Speaker 3: disputed if someone was in fact a Confederate officer. I
- 36:53Speaker 3: don't know have anyone that said, no, no, I wasn't a
- 36:55Speaker 3: Confederate officer. Like the two pieces were admitted, and so
- 37:00Speaker 3: so there was no meaningful factual dispute here. There is
- 37:06Speaker 3: a reason that Jack Smith and every other prosecutor, that
- 37:10Speaker 3: left wing prosecutor that hates Donald Trump, that nobody has
- 37:13Speaker 3: charged Trump with the crime of insurrection because you couldn't
- 37:17Speaker 3: remotely prove that. The facts don't demonstrate it. And so
- 37:22Speaker 3: I think the theory of the Supreme Court will say,
- 37:26Speaker 3: and I predicted a sentence from Look when this comes down,
- 37:29Speaker 3: and I think it'll come down, it'll be argued February eighth.
- 37:31Speaker 3: I'm going to predict it comes down February nineteenth. I'm
- 37:36Speaker 3: just pulling a date out. It will be some time
- 37:38Speaker 3: between February eighth and March fourth. I'm pulling a date
- 37:40Speaker 3: out of the air, saying February nineteenth. When it comes down,
- 37:44Speaker 3: I'm predicting right now, there will be a sentence. We
- 37:48Speaker 3: express no opinion over whether the events of January sixth,
- 37:52Speaker 3: twenty twenty one constitute an insurrection or not. However, in
- 37:59Speaker 3: order for the fourteenth Amendment prohibition to apply, there needs
- 38:03Speaker 3: to be a conclusive determination that it was an insurrection.
- 38:08Speaker 3: And for those who urge Trump should be ineligible. For
- 38:13Speaker 3: the Biden Department of Justice, which has urged Trump should
- 38:16Speaker 3: be ineligible, they have a path to prove that case,
- 38:19Speaker 3: which is to charge him with insurrection and convict him
- 38:23Speaker 3: and obtain a final judgment that he's guilty of insurrection.
- 38:26Speaker 3: If they do so, he will be ineligible for office.
- 38:29Speaker 3: But they have not done so. And accordingly, this decision
- 38:34Speaker 3: should not be made by judges in Colorado or a
- 38:39Speaker 3: partisan unelected secretary of State in Maine, but rather, the
- 38:43Speaker 3: decision of the next president should be made by the
- 38:46Speaker 3: voters and the American people. I think that that's what
- 38:50Speaker 3: I would rule if I were a justice. That is
- 38:52Speaker 3: the sort of opinion I would write. And my hope
- 38:56Speaker 3: is I really hope the liberal justices are are not
- 39:01Speaker 3: infected by Trump derangement syndrome like so many Democrats are.
- 39:05Speaker 3: That they recognize the damage to the court if they
- 39:08Speaker 3: make this a partisan decision will be historic and irreparable.
- 39:13Speaker 3: So I pray they don't do that.
- 39:15Speaker 1: We're gonna be watching it all here, don't forget.
- 39:17Speaker 2: We do this show Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and a week
- 39:20Speaker 2: recap on Saturdays. Hit that subscribe follow our auto download button. Also,
- 39:25Speaker 2: if you do this show and listen to it on Apple,
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- 39:36Speaker 2: so in the new year, make sure you check that
- 39:38Speaker 2: it is important that you do that. And the Senator
- 39:40Speaker 2: and I will see you back here in a couple
- 39:42Speaker 2: of days.