Latest / The Ben Ferguson Podcast / DeSantis OUT, Is Nikki Haley Next? War Stories from the Presidential Trail

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DeSantis OUT, Is Nikki Haley Next? War Stories from the Presidential Trail · The Ben Ferguson Podcast

0:01
Speaker 1: Senator going to be with you in person this week.
0:03
Speaker 1: For everyone listening, we do one of our shows a week,
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Speaker 1: us there, make sure you foll us on YouTube, and
0:13
Speaker 1: you can watch this episode as well. I want to
0:15
Speaker 1: get in first into the big news. As we got
0:18
Speaker 1: here to film this, Ron DeSantis not only did he
0:21
Speaker 1: drop out, but he's endorsed Donald Trump for president. Your
0:25
Speaker 1: initial reaction to that is that the right decision, the
0:28
Speaker 1: right time to do it early on.
0:29
Speaker 2: Well, listen, it is big news. I will say, it's
0:31
Speaker 2: not surprising you. And I talked about this in our
0:34
Speaker 2: pod last week. As you know last week, I endorsed
0:37
Speaker 2: Donald Trump immediately following the Iowa caucus. And the reason
0:41
Speaker 2: I did that is the results of the Iowa caucus
0:43
Speaker 2: were clear. They were decisive. And what I said that
0:46
Speaker 2: next day is this primary is over, Donald Trump will
0:50
Speaker 2: be the Republican nominee. I thought that was clear from
0:53
Speaker 2: the results of Iowa. DeSantis. It was clear that DeSantis
0:58
Speaker 2: was going to drop out. We didn't know that it
0:59
Speaker 2: would necess be on Sunday, but we knew it would
1:01
Speaker 2: be soon. He did not have a path going forward.
1:05
Speaker 2: He did not have a path to victory. He recognized
1:08
Speaker 2: that once you don't have a path to victory, I
1:10
Speaker 2: think the right thing to do is to drop out.
1:12
Speaker 3: That's what he did.
1:14
Speaker 2: At this point, it is a two person race between
1:17
Speaker 2: Trump and Nicky Haley, and we've got the New Hampshire
1:20
Speaker 2: primary coming up right now. As I said, I think
1:24
Speaker 2: this primary is over, but New Hampshire might represent a speedbump.
1:29
Speaker 2: New Hampshire over history has at times been contrary. Haley
1:34
Speaker 2: and Donald Trump are polling basically neck and neck in
1:39
Speaker 2: New Hampshire. I think it is entirely possible we see
1:42
Speaker 2: a close outcome in New Hampshire. I don't think it
1:45
Speaker 2: is impossible that Nicky Haley wins New Hampshire. She's within
1:49
Speaker 2: two points of him right now. But whether it is close,
1:53
Speaker 2: or whether Haley wins New Hampshire, or whether Trump wins
1:56
Speaker 2: New Hampshire, I don't think it makes the Hill of
1:58
Speaker 2: Beans of difference. If Trump win, the race is over
2:01
Speaker 2: that instant. If Haley wins, the race is over shortly thereafter,
2:07
Speaker 2: because after New Hampshire the race moves on to South Carolina.
2:11
Speaker 2: Nikki Haley is a former governor of South Carolina. But
2:14
Speaker 2: Trump has a dominating lead in South Carolina. Trump is
2:18
Speaker 2: going to win South Carolina by double digits.
2:21
Speaker 1: And that hurts her more, you think, because it is
2:23
Speaker 1: her home state. It's kind of like what Al Gore
2:25
Speaker 1: loss Tennessee, for example. If you lose your home state,
2:28
Speaker 1: it's not gonna go well for.
2:29
Speaker 2: You well, and especially in a primary. Remember Gore lost
2:32
Speaker 2: Tennessee in the general election, so there was nothing to
2:35
Speaker 2: happen after that. In this instance, losing your home state
2:42
Speaker 2: in a primary is crushing. You need to be able
2:46
Speaker 2: to win your home state. I don't see any way
2:48
Speaker 2: that Nicky Haley is going to win South Carolina. And
2:51
Speaker 2: right after South Carolina are the Super Primary, the Super
2:54
Speaker 2: Tuesday states that are predominantly Southern states. In all of those,
2:59
Speaker 2: Trump has a big, big lead. What we've got plan
3:02
Speaker 2: out right now is Nicky Hayley has become the moderate
3:07
Speaker 2: establishment candidate. So anyone typically in a Republican presidential primary,
3:13
Speaker 2: about thirty percent of the voters self identified self identify
3:17
Speaker 2: as establishment moderates. That means seventy percent do not. At
3:23
Speaker 2: this point, Nicky is clearly owning the establishment moderate lane
3:28
Speaker 2: and part of the reason why it is possible that
3:31
Speaker 2: she wins in New Hampshire is New Hampshire's estate that
3:34
Speaker 2: has a lot of independence. Now, independence in New Hampshire
3:38
Speaker 2: can vote in either primary. They can show up on
3:40
Speaker 2: primary day and say I want to vote Democrat or
3:43
Speaker 2: I want to vote Republican, and so they can choose
3:45
Speaker 2: that day, and so independence can really influence the outcome
3:49
Speaker 2: of the New Hampshire primary. This weekend, the Boston Globe
3:53
Speaker 2: had a big editorial urging independence, do not vote in
3:56
Speaker 2: the Democrat primary, show up vote in the Republican primary.
4:00
Speaker 4: Operation chaos.
4:01
Speaker 2: Basically, well, no, no, but it's very specific, and vote
4:04
Speaker 2: for Nicki Haley beat Donald Trump is what the Boston Globe,
4:08
Speaker 2: and the Boston Globe says. We don't like Nicki Haley, yeah,
4:11
Speaker 2: but we hate Donald Trump. And so particularly if you
4:14
Speaker 2: see a bunch of Independents showing up in order to
4:18
Speaker 2: defeat Trump. That could happen in one state, but beyond that,
4:22
Speaker 2: I don't see any any path going forward for Haley
4:26
Speaker 2: or anyone to beat Trump.
4:27
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the Sanders for a moment, dropping out
4:30
Speaker 1: and what happens his voters in New Hampshire there are
4:34
Speaker 1: some that might be frustrated their guys out.
4:36
Speaker 4: Does a majority of them.
4:38
Speaker 1: Go historically to the underdog there because you're mad that
4:42
Speaker 1: you had your guy dropped out because the guy who's
4:45
Speaker 1: in the lead aka Donald Trump. Talk about the psychological
4:48
Speaker 1: aspect of voters and what happens historically there.
4:51
Speaker 2: So I have not seen the polling in New Hampshire
4:54
Speaker 2: of who Desantus's people lists their second choice, and that's
4:58
Speaker 2: among more sophisticated polling. You at people, all right, your
5:01
Speaker 2: first choices is Ben Ferguson, Who's your second choice? Mickey Mouse? Okay,
5:05
Speaker 2: so you write those down. My supposition, so Dessantus was
5:11
Speaker 2: about six percent in New Hampshire. He was not gonna
5:14
Speaker 2: do well in New Hampshire. That's part of the reason
5:16
Speaker 2: Ron didn't have a path. He was gonna get crushed
5:18
Speaker 2: in New Hampshire. Then he was gonna go to South
5:20
Speaker 2: Carolina and get crushed in South Carolina, and then he
5:23
Speaker 2: was gonna go on to the Super Tuesday states and
5:25
Speaker 2: get crushed, including getting crushed in his home state of Florida.
5:29
Speaker 2: And so they're just as you looked at the calendar
5:32
Speaker 2: and said, well, what state can he win? There wasn't
5:35
Speaker 2: an answer to that, which is why why this decision
5:39
Speaker 2: was made. You know, in terms of where the roughly
5:46
Speaker 2: six percent in New Hampshire voters go that we're going
5:48
Speaker 2: to vote for him, my guess is that more of
5:52
Speaker 2: them go to Trump than go to Hayley. I don't
5:54
Speaker 2: know that, But you've got kind of twin factors. If
5:58
Speaker 2: you're just making up positions on one factor. Look DeSantis
6:04
Speaker 2: as a candidate based on his record, there's much more
6:07
Speaker 2: of an ideological overlap with Trump. DeSantis was running as
6:11
Speaker 2: a pretty trumpy candidate. It was basically sure Trump without
6:15
Speaker 2: the baggage was to the extent there was a Dessatus
6:18
Speaker 2: message that was it.
6:20
Speaker 4: You and I talked about this.
6:20
Speaker 1: If you put them on stage and you went through
6:22
Speaker 1: one hundred concerned issues there and said raizor hand, if
6:25
Speaker 1: you agree with this or disagreed, they would probably have
6:27
Speaker 1: matched up about ninety nine out of.
6:28
Speaker 2: One hundred, and so the voters who were with DeSantis
6:32
Speaker 2: tend to agree with Trump on the issues Down the line. However,
6:37
Speaker 2: some of the voters with DeSantis are people who just
6:40
Speaker 2: didn't like Trump and decided DeSantis was the strongest alternative.
6:44
Speaker 2: So if you're a voter who doesn't like Trump, presumably
6:48
Speaker 2: you go to Nicki Haley. If you're a voter who
6:50
Speaker 2: is ideologically aligned and stylistically aligned with Trump and Dessantis,
6:56
Speaker 2: you presumably go to Trump. My guess is of the
7:00
Speaker 2: six percent, four percent goes to Trump and two goes
7:04
Speaker 2: to Haley. That's that's that's just pulling out of the air.
7:07
Speaker 2: But notionally, those would be the reasons that that would happen.
7:09
Speaker 1: All right, let's go back to your victory for a second.
7:13
Speaker 1: That was a life changing moment politically for you. Can
7:16
Speaker 1: we talk strategy just for a second there? What was
7:19
Speaker 1: your strategy and remind people what the issues were during
7:22
Speaker 1: that election with Donald Trump? It was I mean, that
7:26
Speaker 1: was a that was a just bloodbath. There was a
7:29
Speaker 1: lot of punches that were being swung. There was a
7:32
Speaker 1: lot of negative media and I'm talking about media stories
7:35
Speaker 1: and accusations and absurd things that I could have never
7:38
Speaker 1: imagined when it hit in that race and all of
7:39
Speaker 1: a sudden, it was all there and you came out
7:42
Speaker 1: with that victory. When did you think you were going
7:44
Speaker 1: to win?
7:45
Speaker 2: That?
7:45
Speaker 4: Was there a day or two before? When you thought
7:47
Speaker 4: we have the edge?
7:48
Speaker 2: Was it a week before, so on the weekend, all
7:50
Speaker 2: of the public polling showed Trump was going to win Iowa,
7:53
Speaker 2: and all the public polling was wrong. I can tell
7:56
Speaker 2: you my polling on the campaign showed we were going
7:58
Speaker 2: to win Iowa, and my polling, I think, was one
8:00
Speaker 2: point off. And that was consistent throughout the twenty sixteen campaign.
8:04
Speaker 2: Our internal polls were almost exactly where our numbers were,
8:09
Speaker 2: and so we knew where we were. We ran a
8:11
Speaker 2: very very data driven campaign. Listen, twenty sixteen was a
8:15
Speaker 2: race where there were seventeen Republican candidates. It was a
8:18
Speaker 2: very crowded field, and those seventeen candidates, it was a
8:21
Speaker 2: very strong field.
8:25
Speaker 1: The level of debate then was at a level that
8:27
Speaker 1: I don't think we've had in a long time in politics.
8:30
Speaker 1: And that's one of the things that I loved about
8:32
Speaker 1: that campaign was you did have a lot of brilliant
8:35
Speaker 1: minds on stage. I kind of missed that there was
8:39
Speaker 1: a level of debate that I thought was good for
8:41
Speaker 1: the country on issues.
8:43
Speaker 4: Did you enjoy that?
8:45
Speaker 2: Loved every second of every minute of every day. It
8:49
Speaker 2: was incredible, It was breathtaking, It was all consuming. It
8:55
Speaker 2: was most fun I've ever had in my life.
8:57
Speaker 4: Can I ask an insight baseball question there?
9:00
Speaker 1: Rubio, if he would have dropped out before South Carolina,
9:03
Speaker 1: what did y'all's polling show?
9:04
Speaker 2: Then Trump would have still won South Carolina, but it
9:09
Speaker 2: would have been would have been much closer. And and
9:12
Speaker 2: Rubio later on, Rubio state in the race for a
9:15
Speaker 2: long time and cuts support away from me. And and
9:20
Speaker 2: so you know, if you fast forward Super Tuesday and
9:24
Speaker 2: before the Florida primary, we polled at the time, what
9:28
Speaker 2: happened if Rubio and I ran together as a ticket?
9:31
Speaker 2: One ended up happening. I ended up winning twelve states?
9:37
Speaker 3: Uh?
9:38
Speaker 2: Trump won at the time, it was something like twenty
9:40
Speaker 2: three states, and no other candidate won more than a
9:43
Speaker 2: single state. So Kasik won Ohio, Rubio one Minnesota, and
9:48
Speaker 2: Trump and I won every other state. Uh. We did
9:52
Speaker 2: poll at the time right before Florida, what happens if
9:55
Speaker 2: Rubio drops out and if Rubio joins me? And our
10:01
Speaker 2: poll numbers showed that my support jumped double digits. Wow,
10:05
Speaker 2: And I think it would have changed the outcome If
10:07
Speaker 2: Marco had done that. I think it is quite likely
10:10
Speaker 2: the outcome would have changed. But he didn't. And so
10:15
Speaker 2: what ended up happening is even though I won twelve states,
10:21
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, Trump had too big
10:23
Speaker 2: a lead and it essentially took too long for the
10:27
Speaker 2: rest of the field to consolidate. That Rubia stuck around
10:30
Speaker 2: a long time, Casik stuck around a long time. They
10:33
Speaker 2: couldn't win anywhere, but they could suck votes away from me,
10:35
Speaker 2: and they did, and that they're sticking around played a
10:39
Speaker 2: pivotal part in Trump's winning the nomination in sixteen.
10:44
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Speaker 1: about dropping out, and I want you to kind of
13:00
Speaker 1: pull back the curtain, yep, because DeSantis just went through
13:03
Speaker 1: this gut wrenching moment. I think in politics people to
13:07
Speaker 1: understand how hard is not when you're running president. I
13:09
Speaker 1: think on just you, your family, your friends, your supporters,
13:15
Speaker 1: the people that are writing checks. It is one of
13:18
Speaker 1: the worst moments watching a candidate half decide how to
13:22
Speaker 1: drop out, when to drop out, where to do it,
13:26
Speaker 1: being good stewards of their supporters and their dollars that
13:28
Speaker 1: you're continuingly asking them to give. When you were looking
13:32
Speaker 1: at the idea of dropping out, how did that go down?
13:36
Speaker 1: Did you talk to a larger group of people. First,
13:38
Speaker 1: did you talk to donors, and then a smaller group,
13:41
Speaker 1: did you talk to your campaign staff? And then did
13:43
Speaker 1: you talk to your family? What was that cycle? How
13:45
Speaker 1: did that look like to make that decision, Because obviously
13:48
Speaker 1: DeSantis had to deal with that, and now there's a
13:50
Speaker 1: lot of people calling for Nicki Haley to get out.
13:52
Speaker 1: I don't think she's going to get out anytime soon,
13:56
Speaker 1: and so what does that decision look like when you
13:58
Speaker 1: were having to go through it.
13:59
Speaker 2: Well, listen, almost everyone drops out for the same reason
14:02
Speaker 2: they go broke. What drives you out of a campaign
14:05
Speaker 2: is when you're no longer able to raise the money
14:08
Speaker 2: to keep the lights on, when you're no longer able
14:09
Speaker 2: to raise the money to run any ads, when you're
14:11
Speaker 2: no longer able to raise the money to pay your
14:14
Speaker 2: campaign staff, when you're no longer able to raise the
14:16
Speaker 2: money to fly to the next campaign event. That's what
14:18
Speaker 2: drives people out. It's also a reason a lot of
14:22
Speaker 2: campaigns are terrible at budgeting, and they blow a lot
14:25
Speaker 2: of money fast and early, and they go broke. And
14:28
Speaker 2: so you have a lot of candidates who drop out
14:31
Speaker 2: before a single voter's cast, to drop out before Iowa happens,
14:38
Speaker 2: and so marshaling the money. One of the reasons DeSantis
14:41
Speaker 2: I'm not surprised that he dropped out is he was
14:45
Speaker 2: going broke and nobody would write him a check. At
14:48
Speaker 2: this point, when he's gotten crushed in Iowa and there's
14:53
Speaker 2: not a state coming up that he had any prayer
14:56
Speaker 2: of winning, it becomes impossible to raise money. Both large
15:01
Speaker 2: money you're calling donors and ask him to max out
15:04
Speaker 2: and no one to write a check. Then if they
15:05
Speaker 2: don't think you can win, your money disappears. But little donors,
15:08
Speaker 2: people giving five dollars or ten dollars, they don't do
15:11
Speaker 2: that either. If they don't believe you have a chance
15:12
Speaker 2: at victory, that dynamic is inevitably the case you also haven't.
15:20
Speaker 2: And look, it's worth underscoring believing you can win. If
15:28
Speaker 2: your supporters believe you can win, it becomes a self
15:30
Speaker 2: fulfilling prophecy. So for example, we came out of the
15:35
Speaker 2: first three states I want Iowa, Trump won New Hampshire
15:38
Speaker 2: and South Carolina. We then went forward. We had had
15:42
Speaker 2: Super Tuesday. I ended up on Super Tuesday. Trump won
15:46
Speaker 2: seven states. I won three, So I won Oklahoma, Maine,
15:53
Speaker 2: and Texas and Texas was a big deal a lot
15:55
Speaker 2: of delegates. I want a big double digit victory in Texas.
16:00
Speaker 1: Other win Texas than three or four other smaller states
16:02
Speaker 1: in the same day.
16:03
Speaker 2: Yes, but winning Oklahoma and that's the day Rubio one
16:07
Speaker 2: Minnesota that so that was his one victory. But winning
16:12
Speaker 2: those three states is what made it at that point
16:16
Speaker 2: a two man race, as I established myself as the
16:19
Speaker 2: principal alternative to Trump at this point if you fast
16:24
Speaker 2: forward from there. So there was a three week period
16:29
Speaker 2: in March and April when I won five consecutive primaries
16:34
Speaker 2: by double digits. I won Utah, North Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Wisconsin,
16:44
Speaker 2: all three of those played. All five of those played
16:47
Speaker 2: out over three consecutive weeks, and I won all of
16:50
Speaker 2: them by double digits, big crushing victories. Normally, when that happens,
16:55
Speaker 2: there's a narrative of the parties uniting, coming together. Whether
17:00
Speaker 2: you're winning, you're uniting different factions of the party. Wisconsin,
17:04
Speaker 2: for example, was that it was an enormous victory. You
17:06
Speaker 2: look at Wisconsin, Wisconsin. The knock that the media tried
17:10
Speaker 2: to do on me was the same knock they did
17:12
Speaker 2: on Hackabe and centaorum, which is he's an evangelical niche
17:17
Speaker 2: candidate that just just appeals in small circles. I never
17:21
Speaker 2: thought that was a very very accurate characterization. Yes, I
17:25
Speaker 2: am a Christian, and that is a big part of
17:28
Speaker 2: who I am, but I'm a very different person than
17:31
Speaker 2: Mike Cockabe or rec Centaurum. Wisconsin is one of the
17:38
Speaker 2: least evangelical states in the country. Wisconsin is a purple state.
17:42
Speaker 2: Wisconsin is a blue collar state. Wisconsin is a union state.
17:47
Speaker 2: Wisconsin is a working class state. And so under conventional narratives,
17:51
Speaker 2: I should have gotten crushed in Wisconsin. I ended up
17:54
Speaker 2: winning decisively in Wisconsin. I won very conservatives, I won
17:58
Speaker 2: somewhat conservatives. I want women, I won men, I won
18:02
Speaker 2: young people, I won Reagan Democrats. It was a thirteen
18:04
Speaker 2: point victory in Wisconsin.
18:06
Speaker 4: What was the issue there that made that difference.
18:12
Speaker 2: I campaigned on my record that I had a strong,
18:14
Speaker 2: proven record of fighting for conservative principles, fighting for jobs,
18:18
Speaker 2: fighting for the Constitution, and that proven record resonated. What
18:25
Speaker 2: happened subsequently, however, is the next week was the New
18:30
Speaker 2: York Primary. Now the New York primary is Donald Trump's
18:34
Speaker 2: home state. The New York primary also is a difficult primary.
18:39
Speaker 2: For one thing, New York has a curious way of
18:43
Speaker 2: doing primaries, and that they have a different party, the
18:45
Speaker 2: Conservative Party, so that many of the more conservative New
18:49
Speaker 2: York voters are not actually in the Republican Party, they're
18:52
Speaker 2: in the Conservative Party. And listen, one would expect Trump
18:57
Speaker 2: to win his home state. He did, won New York decisively.
19:02
Speaker 2: New York is also where most of the national and
19:04
Speaker 2: corporate media is headquartered.
19:06
Speaker 4: So they loved it.
19:07
Speaker 2: And so for the media, they obsessed on that, and
19:10
Speaker 2: what ended up happening. We saw a forty eight hour
19:15
Speaker 2: time period where the relentless media coverage was the race
19:19
Speaker 2: is over. Trump is won, he can't be beaten, he
19:21
Speaker 2: can't be beaten, he can't be beaten. Despite we just
19:24
Speaker 2: had five double digit victories in a row in a
19:26
Speaker 2: row consecutively. The media just flooded the zone with the
19:33
Speaker 2: message the race is over, and we saw our numbers plummet.
19:37
Speaker 2: So the next week was Pennsylvania before the New York primary.
19:41
Speaker 2: Trump and I were tied in Pennsylvania. After the New
19:44
Speaker 2: York primary, when the media hammered the races over, the
19:47
Speaker 2: race is over, we dropped double digits. Our people gave up.
19:50
Speaker 2: They said, you just can't win. That effect, and so
19:54
Speaker 2: I can tell you for DeSantis. Once your people believe
19:58
Speaker 2: you can't win, they don't show up. Yeah, they don't work,
20:02
Speaker 2: they don't make phone calls, they don't give money.
20:04
Speaker 1: They get yard signs, they don't do all the things
20:06
Speaker 1: that a campaign desperately needs.
20:08
Speaker 2: It just takes. So coming out of Wisconsin, the polling
20:12
Speaker 2: in California, I was leading Trump significantly in California. Interesting
20:17
Speaker 2: until the media just broke our back with the races,
20:22
Speaker 2: over the races, over the races, over Trump has one,
20:25
Speaker 2: Trump is one, Trump is one, and the media made
20:28
Speaker 2: that a self fulfilling prophecy. And so we saw my
20:33
Speaker 2: last primary was Indiana and Indiana the relentless media coverage
20:42
Speaker 2: and it actually it was quantified. Trump got three billion
20:45
Speaker 2: dollars in free media that cycle.
20:48
Speaker 1: And so my campaign, by the way, I think you
20:52
Speaker 1: should say that again because I think people forget this
20:54
Speaker 1: read billion with a B, and so people understand how
20:57
Speaker 1: we do this in the political world when're running campaign,
21:00
Speaker 1: there's earned media, there's there's there's free media, and there's
21:05
Speaker 1: news cycles. He just played to some people's advantage. Donald
21:08
Speaker 1: Trump just sucked the free media out of the every room.
21:13
Speaker 2: And there was no precedent for it. So in twenty sixteen,
21:17
Speaker 2: my campaign raised ninety two million dollars. It was the
21:20
Speaker 2: most money any Republican had ever raised in the history
21:24
Speaker 2: of presidential primaries, more than George W. Bush or John
21:29
Speaker 2: McCain or Mitt Romney. And that came from one point
21:32
Speaker 2: six million contributions all over the country. Ninety two million
21:35
Speaker 2: dollars is a crap ton of money, yeah, unless you
21:38
Speaker 2: have three billion dollars dollars on the other end. And
21:42
Speaker 2: it actually was quantified. The last thirty days of the campaign.
21:46
Speaker 2: Donald Trump got five hundred million dollars in free media.
21:50
Speaker 2: This is during the primary, the last thirty days, five
21:52
Speaker 2: hundred million dollars. Wow, over ninety percent of it was positive.
21:56
Speaker 2: Basically the last thirty days, the media just said it's over.
21:59
Speaker 2: It's over. It's over, it's over. And the floor collapsed
22:03
Speaker 2: on all of our numbers. Our people gave up. The
22:05
Speaker 2: media convinced them it was over. And once they convinced
22:09
Speaker 2: them it was over, it was so Dessantus is in
22:11
Speaker 2: the same place. His people had abandoned hope and at
22:17
Speaker 2: that point, he had no choice and so I suspended
22:21
Speaker 2: the campaign May third. I still remember it, well, we
22:24
Speaker 2: did a rally.
22:27
Speaker 4: What got you to that decision?
22:28
Speaker 2: Though?
22:28
Speaker 1: I understand that the money drying up, but explain that
22:32
Speaker 1: the sphere around you and how many meetings did it
22:35
Speaker 1: take to get to the decision.
22:37
Speaker 2: So look, I had a core team, a senior leadership
22:41
Speaker 2: team on the campaign, and these are very trusted advisors
22:44
Speaker 2: and it's about ten people, and we spent so the
22:51
Speaker 2: night before Indiana, we spent several hours going through the
22:57
Speaker 2: data and going through numbers. I told you we were
22:59
Speaker 2: in Hensley data driven. I don't think there has ever
23:02
Speaker 2: been a candidate and a campaign that was as data
23:05
Speaker 2: driven as we were. And we knew the results in
23:09
Speaker 2: virtually every state before they happened, and consistently our results
23:13
Speaker 2: were within one or two points of the outcome. So
23:18
Speaker 2: as we were sitting down the night before, we had
23:20
Speaker 2: a long, extensive meeting and we go through the numbers.
23:23
Speaker 2: We go through the numbers and the subsequent states, and
23:26
Speaker 2: as I'm looking at it, there wasn't a state we
23:30
Speaker 2: had a path to win.
23:32
Speaker 1: So is that just crushing to you personally? I mean,
23:37
Speaker 1: you're still in a campaign, you're still fighting center. I mean,
23:41
Speaker 1: so the media played a pivotal role in it. So,
23:44
Speaker 1: for example, the night of the New York primary, I
23:49
Speaker 1: gave a speech in Constitution Hall in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania was
23:54
Speaker 1: coming up the next week.
23:54
Speaker 4: I remember that.
23:56
Speaker 2: It was a brand new speech, so it was not
23:57
Speaker 2: my stump speech. It was a speech I'd never given before.
24:01
Speaker 2: It was it wasn't terribly long. It was like twelve
24:04
Speaker 2: thirteen minutes, so it was not a long stemwinder. The
24:08
Speaker 2: media cut it off, they didn't ear it, they just
24:10
Speaker 2: went away. Now, mind you, there are only two of us,
24:15
Speaker 2: Trump and me. There were four people on planet Earth,
24:17
Speaker 2: one of the four of whom was going to be
24:19
Speaker 2: the next president. Trump and me, Hillary and Bernie those
24:21
Speaker 2: were the four percentiate's remaining. And the media said, no,
24:25
Speaker 2: we're not even going to cover your speech. Mind you,
24:27
Speaker 2: They would do things like CNN had one press conference
24:31
Speaker 2: where they literally had the camera live on an empty
24:34
Speaker 2: podium waiting for Trump to speak, and they had the
24:39
Speaker 2: camera pointed at the air there's this plane. I mean,
24:42
Speaker 2: it was. It was breath taking coverage that just drowned
24:47
Speaker 2: everything out. And so as we're sitting there we looked
24:52
Speaker 2: at the upcoming states, and when our numbers collapsed, our
24:56
Speaker 2: numbers collapsed everywhere. So I'm sitting there with my data guys,
24:59
Speaker 2: and I'm like, well, okay, what's the path to victory?
25:03
Speaker 2: I mentioned why Desantus suspended he did have a path
25:06
Speaker 2: to victory. As I looked at it, I could not
25:09
Speaker 2: see any path to victory. Now, I also knew my
25:12
Speaker 2: numbers in Indiana. I knew that we were going to
25:14
Speaker 2: lose the next day. I knew we were going to
25:16
Speaker 2: lose by double digits. Now did I hold out hope
25:19
Speaker 2: for a miracle, sure, yeah, but our data was rock solid.
25:26
Speaker 2: And it's interesting there's some people in politics who hire
25:30
Speaker 2: staffers who just blow smoke at them, tell them what
25:32
Speaker 2: they want to hear. I don't understand that. I think
25:35
Speaker 2: that's idiotic. I hire a team that they will tell
25:38
Speaker 2: me when I've screwed up, they'll tell me when the
25:40
Speaker 2: polling's bad, like they're brutally honest. I think that makes
25:43
Speaker 2: you much more effective. But I knew that night, Okay,
25:47
Speaker 2: the next day, we're going to get clobbered Indiana. And
25:50
Speaker 2: if we get clobbered in Indiana, we go on in
25:52
Speaker 2: the state's coming up. We don't have any path. And
25:55
Speaker 2: I mentioned everyone drops out when they go broke. I'm
25:57
Speaker 2: one of the few people for whom that was not
25:59
Speaker 2: the case. I wasn't broke. We had several million dollars
26:02
Speaker 2: still in the back.
26:04
Speaker 4: You could have kept going.
26:05
Speaker 2: I had the money to keep going. Now, we couldn't
26:09
Speaker 2: do big.
26:09
Speaker 4: Advis yeah, but you could run in a campaign.
26:12
Speaker 1: You could get to the next state, you could set
26:14
Speaker 1: up shop, you could do the you could do the events.
26:16
Speaker 2: So when I suspended on May third, Trump was astonished,
26:21
Speaker 2: did not expect me to do that. And as I said,
26:25
Speaker 2: the reason I did is we looked at the polling
26:27
Speaker 2: numbers and there was no credible path to come back
26:31
Speaker 2: and win. And once there wasn't a path to win,
26:34
Speaker 2: I wasn't interested in running and being a spoiler. Listen.
26:37
Speaker 2: I wanted to beat Hillary Clinton. Yeah, and so I
26:40
Speaker 2: didn't want to stick around just for the heck of it.
26:42
Speaker 2: Once there wasn't a path forward, and so I had
26:46
Speaker 2: a speech prepared that night, and we had We're in Indiana,
26:49
Speaker 2: and we had several hundred of our strongest supporters that
26:53
Speaker 2: were there, and well, actually, let me tell you something
26:58
Speaker 2: about that morning. So the morning of the Indiana primary,
27:02
Speaker 2: I fly out to this event to do this speech.
27:05
Speaker 2: And by the way, in Indiana, I was campaigning with
27:08
Speaker 2: Mike Pence, Yeah, who was the governor of Indiana, who
27:11
Speaker 2: had just endorsed me.
27:12
Speaker 1: It was a big endorsement, and a lot of people
27:15
Speaker 1: thought that could maybe change those numbers you were talking about.
27:18
Speaker 2: Except we didn't because Pence's numbers were terrible in Indiana.
27:21
Speaker 2: He actually was underwater. His unfavorables were higher than his favorables,
27:26
Speaker 2: and so we had we actually there were very limited
27:30
Speaker 2: places in Indiana we could take Pence because most counties
27:33
Speaker 2: we went to it was not helpful. We picked a
27:36
Speaker 2: couple of counties where it was. But this is what
27:39
Speaker 2: I mean by being data driven. We say, Okay, if
27:42
Speaker 2: we're going to campaign with someone, let's do it somewhere
27:44
Speaker 2: where it helps and not hurts, and down to those
27:47
Speaker 2: day to day decisions. But the morning of the primary,
27:50
Speaker 2: we flew I forget what time. We flew to a
27:52
Speaker 2: speech that morning, and as we were driving by, there
28:00
Speaker 2: was an elementary school on the corner, and the school
28:04
Speaker 2: knew that a presidential candidate was coming, and so they'd
28:08
Speaker 2: let all the kids go out into the like the
28:11
Speaker 2: yard to like to see the presidential candidate. And I
28:15
Speaker 2: told the guy driving the truck, I said, pull over,
28:19
Speaker 2: I want to go go talk to the kids. And
28:22
Speaker 2: so I went and talked to the kids, and I
28:25
Speaker 2: ended up just kind of walking right into the group
28:27
Speaker 2: of kids, and I was surrounded by hundreds of fifth graders,
28:36
Speaker 2: maybe younger, but they seemed about fifth graders. And they
28:40
Speaker 2: were cheering and screaming at the top of their lungs.
28:46
Speaker 2: And I've never had that happen, by the way, that
28:48
Speaker 2: this is the only day in politics that I've ever
28:51
Speaker 2: had this experience. And they're literally jumping up and down
28:54
Speaker 2: around me and cheering. And I got to say that
28:57
Speaker 2: was emotional because I knew that morning that, barring a miracle,
29:02
Speaker 2: I was dropping out that evening. So so that was
29:05
Speaker 2: a hard day. That whole day was a hard day.
29:08
Speaker 2: And I will tell you, look, I don't don't like
29:11
Speaker 2: wearing faith on my sleeve, but ben I genuinely feel
29:16
Speaker 2: like that morning was God just giving me a hug. Yeah,
29:21
Speaker 2: Like I will tell you, to be surrounded by several
29:23
Speaker 2: hundred screaming fifth graders, just just cheering, I was grateful,
29:29
Speaker 2: like Okay, I needed this. I needed that, and it's
29:34
Speaker 2: still to this day it I'm getting choked up. I
29:37
Speaker 2: mean it was. It was a morning that was just
29:39
Speaker 2: like wow. So that night we have the rally. I
29:43
Speaker 2: have my prepared remarks and I'm giving my remarks, and
29:46
Speaker 2: they have me suspending the campaign. As I get to
29:50
Speaker 2: I say, I've always said I will stay in this
29:53
Speaker 2: as long as there is a path to victory. Ahead
29:56
Speaker 2: looking at the results, I don't see a path to victory,
30:01
Speaker 2: and therefore I am tonight suspending my campaign for president.
30:06
Speaker 2: When that happened, there was a woman in the crowd
30:10
Speaker 2: who let out a whale and it felt like she
30:15
Speaker 2: had been struck. And I gotta say, it struck me
30:18
Speaker 2: like a knife, like that whale hurt. And I made
30:24
Speaker 2: it through the speech, and I'll tell you it was
30:27
Speaker 2: not easy to make it through the speech. And then
30:31
Speaker 2: I went backstage. There was a big curtain that separated
30:34
Speaker 2: the backstage and I went backstage, and I'll tell you,
30:37
Speaker 2: I was just weeping. They just tears were streaming down
30:40
Speaker 2: my face. And to this day, I'm embarrassed because I
30:47
Speaker 2: couldn't go out there and thank those supporters, and I
30:50
Speaker 2: desperately wanted. There were hundreds of people who had flown
30:54
Speaker 2: from state to state and knocked on doors and made
30:56
Speaker 2: phone calls that poured their hearts into them, and I
30:59
Speaker 2: wanted with all my might to go out there and
31:01
Speaker 2: hug every one of them and say thank you, thank
31:04
Speaker 2: you for fighting for our country. And I just I
31:08
Speaker 2: couldn't stop weeping. And the problem was there were about
31:12
Speaker 2: two hundred TV cameras out there, and from my perspective,
31:15
Speaker 2: when I thought that night, I said, I'll be damned
31:19
Speaker 2: if I'm going to let the media turn lion ted
31:22
Speaker 2: into cry and ted that just no, no, they do
31:26
Speaker 2: not get to see this. It's none of their damn business.
31:29
Speaker 2: And I could so I couldn't come out. And Heidi
31:33
Speaker 2: was there, and it was one of Look, any good
31:35
Speaker 2: marriage is really a partnership, and Heidi is my best friend.
31:40
Speaker 2: That night, Heidi went out and spent.
31:43
Speaker 4: Probably two hours saying thank you.
31:46
Speaker 2: Saying thank you, and hugging every person there and they're
31:49
Speaker 2: all crying too, like it. It was a painful night,
31:52
Speaker 2: but Heidi had the strength to do what on that
31:55
Speaker 2: night I did not. That's a hard thing, like a
32:02
Speaker 2: presidential campaign is so all consuming it consumes sixteen to
32:08
Speaker 2: eighteen hours a day, seven days a week. It that listen,
32:15
Speaker 2: I feel for Ron and Casey.
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Speaker 1: that runs for president that's a serious candidate and drops out.
33:39
Speaker 1: People have asked me, what's it like on a president's
33:41
Speaker 1: campaign when it's over, Mike, it's like a funeral.
33:43
Speaker 4: Yeah, if you're a true.
33:44
Speaker 1: Believer in the campaign, in the candidate, you're giving it,
33:47
Speaker 1: you're all you're a staffer, you want your guy to win,
33:50
Speaker 1: and it's over.
33:51
Speaker 4: It's like a funeral.
33:53
Speaker 2: It and I spend a lot of time after Like
33:56
Speaker 2: our team, I still think the team willsembled. And I'm
34:00
Speaker 2: not impartial, but I think the team we assembled is
34:04
Speaker 2: the best campaign team certainly that I've ever seen. And
34:09
Speaker 2: they were like family. And so I went and assembled
34:12
Speaker 2: the entire team. Our headquarters was here in Houston, and
34:15
Speaker 2: I thanked all the staff that this is like A
34:17
Speaker 2: day or two later, I thanked everyone and brought them
34:19
Speaker 2: in and just just talked about reflected on what the
34:22
Speaker 2: campaign meant and what they'd accomplished. And when we started,
34:25
Speaker 2: nobody thought I had a prayer. Nobody thought we could
34:28
Speaker 2: win a single state, and we came with an inches
34:30
Speaker 2: of winning the whole thing. And I will tell you
34:33
Speaker 2: we had so Our campaign office was like an entire
34:38
Speaker 2: floor of cubicles here in Houston, not far from where
34:41
Speaker 2: we are right now, very close, very close to where
34:43
Speaker 2: we are right now. And as everyone you know, went home,
34:48
Speaker 2: I remember walking through that campaign office and just all
34:52
Speaker 2: the empty cubicles and you know the song from Le
34:56
Speaker 2: Miz empty chairs and empty table.
35:00
Speaker 4: Yeah, that was.
35:02
Speaker 2: The song I kept hearing in my mind. In fact,
35:09
Speaker 2: I'm sure Ron and Case you're feeling the same thing.
35:12
Speaker 2: And it's it is a hard thing because everyone pours
35:18
Speaker 2: themselves into it. You know, years ago someone told me
35:21
Speaker 2: there's a reason that both politics and war used the
35:25
Speaker 2: word campaign because it's all consuming. There is nothing else
35:28
Speaker 2: in life like when you are on a campaign. It
35:31
Speaker 2: is one hundred percent of your will and your heart
35:34
Speaker 2: and your mind and your soul and everything. And and
35:39
Speaker 2: you know, you do feel like you've let people down.
35:42
Speaker 2: You know, you're getting people their uprooting their lives, they're
35:47
Speaker 2: moving their families, they're giving sacrificially. They believe in you.
35:52
Speaker 2: And look at this point, I've won elections, I've lost elections.
35:55
Speaker 2: Winning is much better. Yeah, those nights are a lot better.
35:59
Speaker 2: But the reality here, I think this outcome was ordained
36:07
Speaker 2: the night of the Iowa Caucuses, when Trump won a
36:10
Speaker 2: dominating victory, it was clear to Santus had no oxygen.
36:16
Speaker 2: And Haley, as I mentioned, she will likely be competitive
36:20
Speaker 2: in New Hampshire, but I see no path for her
36:23
Speaker 2: beyond that, and so now we are going to test. Look,
36:26
Speaker 2: there are some big donors in the Republican Party that
36:30
Speaker 2: are never Trumpers, that who do not like Trump and
36:32
Speaker 2: are writing millions of dollars to try to change the outcome.
36:37
Speaker 2: I don't think the money can do it at this point.
36:42
Speaker 2: You know, they've got enough money in New Hampshire they
36:44
Speaker 2: could practically send a masseuse to give everyone a back
36:46
Speaker 2: rub and a foot rub on the way to the polls.
36:50
Speaker 2: But as you get on to South Carolina, I think
36:53
Speaker 2: Trump's lead weight is way too large for Haley to
36:56
Speaker 2: have a chance, And from there I don't think there's
37:01
Speaker 2: any path.
37:01
Speaker 1: Beyond final question your advice to Nikki Haley. If you
37:06
Speaker 1: don't have that pathway that you just described, what's the
37:09
Speaker 1: point of staying in now?
37:10
Speaker 2: Look, you know, I actually try to refrain from giving
37:13
Speaker 2: advice to other candidates that everyone's got to follow their
37:16
Speaker 2: own heart and do what they.
37:17
Speaker 4: Think is right in their own timeline.
37:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's you know, calling on people to
37:24
Speaker 2: get out. I don't think.
37:27
Speaker 4: Let it play out.
37:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, it will play out. It's going to play out naturally.
37:30
Speaker 2: It's going to play out naturally, and pretty quickly, I think.
37:35
Speaker 2: And so you know, I recognize the decision to suspend
37:39
Speaker 2: a campaign is not easy. And look, depending on when
37:42
Speaker 2: it occurs, it can often mean. So in twenty sixteen,
37:49
Speaker 2: you know, a bunch of the candidates suspended early, long
37:53
Speaker 2: before Iowa, and so I ended up of my opponents,
37:57
Speaker 2: five of my opponents ended up endorsing me in that race.
38:00
Speaker 2: And and so so I got endorsed by Rick Perry
38:03
Speaker 2: and Carly Fiorina and Scott Walker uh and and Jeb
38:09
Speaker 2: Bush and Lindsay Graham all backed me. And you know,
38:14
Speaker 2: you go out and campaign. So you know, Rick Perry,
38:16
Speaker 2: you know, went and campaigned with me, and in Iowa,
38:19
Speaker 2: you know, and and knew you know, I remember being
38:21
Speaker 2: in Barnes there and and look, Rick Perry was was
38:24
Speaker 2: my governor, someone who I knew and respected. He's older
38:27
Speaker 2: than I am. So it was a little surreal having
38:31
Speaker 2: having someone like Rick Perry come and campaign and say
38:33
Speaker 2: go go vote for Ted. Uh. You know Lindsay Graham,
38:37
Speaker 2: my colleague, you know, he had famously said that if
38:43
Speaker 2: you killed me on the floor of the Senate and
38:46
Speaker 2: the jury were other senators, you couldn't find a jury
38:49
Speaker 2: to convict me, to convict the murderer. And so when
38:53
Speaker 2: Lindsay endorsed me, you know, I jumped on on, you know,
38:57
Speaker 2: and he helped raise the money for me, and I
38:59
Speaker 2: remember saying and saying at the time, I said, Wow,
39:02
Speaker 2: this is the first time in my life I've ever
39:03
Speaker 2: been endorsed by someone who's publicly called for my murder.
39:08
Speaker 2: You know, politics can be a strange and Lindsay and
39:11
Speaker 2: I have become friends since then. But it was you
39:14
Speaker 2: get interesting Carly Ferina, who I thought was a terrific
39:19
Speaker 2: candidate that cycle. You'll recall I announced that if I'd won,
39:24
Speaker 2: she would have been my VP. Yeah, that was an
39:30
Speaker 2: unusual step to do it early, but frankly, I was
39:33
Speaker 2: trying to break through the narrative, the wall of the
39:37
Speaker 2: three billion dollars of free media, and I was trying
39:40
Speaker 2: to find something that actually would be heard by the voters,
39:45
Speaker 2: but the corporate media had no interest in anything being heard. Frankly,
39:49
Speaker 2: I think most of the media wanted Trump to be
39:53
Speaker 2: the nominee because they wanted Hillary to win.
39:55
Speaker 1: And they thought that that was what all of them
39:58
Speaker 1: are saying was give us Trump, he's the easiest to
40:00
Speaker 1: be it, and Hillary Quinton will become the president units
40:03
Speaker 1: It's America and will break that glass ceiling of that
40:05
Speaker 1: beautiful building.
40:07
Speaker 2: I think that was a very deliberate strategy, and I
40:09
Speaker 2: will say for all those bastards that kind of backfire.
40:13
Speaker 2: They got four years of Donald Trump as president. They
40:15
Speaker 2: may be about to get four more years of Donald
40:18
Speaker 2: Trump as president. And it's you know, the self declared
40:22
Speaker 2: media overlords that there is an old saying, be careful
40:25
Speaker 2: what you.
40:26
Speaker 4: Wish for, no doubt about it. I love these conversations.
40:28
Speaker 4: I love that we get to do this.
40:29
Speaker 1: Thanks for pulling back the curtain on sixteen and explaining
40:32
Speaker 1: it from a candidate's perspective, because, as you mentioned, what
40:35
Speaker 1: people go through when they have to drop out, especially
40:38
Speaker 1: DeSantis right now, it's tough. It can take months to
40:42
Speaker 1: come out from that fog of war afterwards, because all
40:45
Speaker 1: of a sudden you go from nine to nothing to
40:46
Speaker 1: it's all over, as you mentioned, And how long does
40:50
Speaker 1: it take to get out of that fog.
40:51
Speaker 4: I think it depends on the candidate.
40:52
Speaker 2: It depends a lot. Look, everyone has a period where
40:55
Speaker 2: you just kind of morning, I assume wrong, we'll do this,
41:00
Speaker 2: but but just about everyone goes and go somewhere on vacation.
41:04
Speaker 2: And my advice when I talk to a candidate after
41:07
Speaker 2: they've lost, and this is true. I've talked to lots
41:09
Speaker 2: of candidates who are running for Senate in the House,
41:11
Speaker 2: and some win, some lose. But for the ones that lose,
41:14
Speaker 2: I say, go somewhere, unplug, get off email, get off
41:18
Speaker 2: your phone, get off Twitter. Just just go sit by
41:22
Speaker 2: the beach with a pinacolada and and just recharge. Recharge,
41:26
Speaker 2: be with your family, hug your kids, just just get
41:30
Speaker 2: away for a while, and and look, the world gets
41:33
Speaker 2: a lot quieter. You know. In a presidential campaign, it's deafening.
41:39
Speaker 2: And then when you suspend it, it's like, Okay, I'm
41:43
Speaker 2: out of this crazy game at least for now. And
41:47
Speaker 2: then to come out of the funk list in every
41:49
Speaker 2: presidential candidate that loses, I think, without exception, goes into
41:55
Speaker 2: a funk. I mean you have a bit of depression
41:58
Speaker 2: and grieving, yeah, And the key to kind of I
42:01
Speaker 2: was no exception to that. I had a period where
42:03
Speaker 2: I was just kind of in a funk. Yeah. And
42:06
Speaker 2: I think the key to coming out of it is
42:08
Speaker 2: finding something to lean in that you love, that you
42:11
Speaker 2: engage in and you know, listen, I have a day
42:14
Speaker 2: job of representing thirty million Texans, which I love doing
42:17
Speaker 2: and pour all of my heart, mind and soul into it,
42:21
Speaker 2: and that became go. And then when Trump became president,
42:25
Speaker 2: you had everybody to work with, and I rolled up
42:27
Speaker 2: my sleeves and said, I am going to lead the
42:29
Speaker 2: fight in the Senate for us to deliver on our
42:31
Speaker 2: promises we got. We have work to do. And so
42:35
Speaker 2: pouring yourself into the fight and into the work is
42:38
Speaker 2: I think a really important part of coming out of it.
42:42
Speaker 2: And some candidates do that more quickly than others. It
42:45
Speaker 2: varies person by person.
42:46
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42:49
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