Simulating Extreme Decisions With LLMs

Logosofia no Dia a Dia · Apr 12, 2026 · 23m

The CIA's operational assessment of Snow Globe—IQT Labs' AI wargaming platform—alongside a Stanford and Hoover Institution study of 214 national security experts reveals a structural problem: large language models cannot faithfully simulate extreme human decision-making. When assigned personas as pacifists or sociopaths, GPT-3.5, GPT-4, and GPT-4o produce statistically indistinguishable outputs. The models collapse toward the center, their training process pulling them toward reasonable moderation even when explicitly instructed otherwise. For intelligence analysts, this creates a dangerous…