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Episode 129: The Outside View: What Base Rates Tell You
Today's episode teaches the Outside View — Daniel Kahneman's principle of consulting base rates before trusting your own story about a plan or project. It's a simple, clarifying move: find out what usually happens to ventures like yours, so you can act with real agency instead of borrowed confidence. The one practice today is to pick something you're currently planning and spend five minutes honestly searching for the reference class. Key Topics: base rates, outside view, Daniel Kahneman, decision-making, planning fallacy, mental models, judgment under uncertainty Subscribe to The Daily…
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