Sequence Of Return Risk: The Math That Breaks Retirements

RIA · Oct 5, 2026

The sequence of return risk is the quiet reason two retirees with identical average returns can end up in very different places. Let’s start with an easy example. Two people retire on the same day with the same million dollars. They have the same portfolio and the same 30-year average return. They should both live comfortably, right? However, while one does die comfortably, the other runs out of money. Nothing separates them except the ORDER in which their returns arrived. That is the “sequence of return risk,” and probably the single most underappreciated threat to anyone who has stopped…