Shows / RIA
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- RIA
Think Rates Are Peaking? Consider Mortgage-Backed Securities
Think interest rates are peaking? If so, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) deserve a look. Think rates have further to climb? MBS may still earn a place…
- RIA
What The NFL Can Teach Us About Risk Management
Diversification is the practice of accepting a lower potential return to reduce risk and increase the likelihood of reaching your financial goals. A recent NFL…
- RIA
OpenAI Rains On The Tech Parade
Over the last couple of months, the technology sector has grossly outperformed the market, as many other sectors have fallen victim to higher yields and oil…
- RIA
Bonds At 5%: Is The 10-Year Treasury Finally A Buy?
With the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2002, buying bonds at 5% is the first real alternative that stock investors have had in nearly two…
- RIA
Bond Auctions: You Never Hear About The Good Ones
A weak Treasury auction brings doom-and-gloom headlines, while strong ones go largely unnoticed. Simply, the good auctions don't feed the bearish bond…
- RIA
Equity Risk Premium Has Vanished, And Stocks Aren’t Cheap.
🔎 At a Glance Equity Risk Premium Has Vanished, And Stocks Aren't Cheap. Market Brief & Technical Review From Lance's Desk: Gambling Epidemic: Gen Z Bets…
- RIA
Gambling Epidemic: Gen Z Bets Against Their Future
The Gen Z gambling epidemic is quietly moving a generation's money from the market to the house, and the bill comes due later. Something changed this summer…
- RIA
A Record Number Of Negative Beta Stocks
According to the graph on the left, Evercore counts 140 S&P 500 members with a negative beta, the highest on record. On the right side, that measure for…
- RIA
Are REITS Right For A Bond Rally?
Over the past six months, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by nearly a full percentage point, and REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) paid the price. XLRE…
- RIA
Worried Consumers Keep Spending: Here’s Why
For nearly four years, economists have been predicting that consumers would fail the economy. To their point, sustained high inflation, the fastest Fed…
- RIA
An Incalculable Concept That Is Misleading The Fed
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan recently said that she estimates the Fed Funds target rate needs to rise "an additional 50 basis points or more." Her…
- RIA
A Rising Dollar Becomes A Headwind
Since early September, the dollar Index has risen nearly 4%, reaching its highest level in over a year. The continued rally over the last few days is strange…
- RIA
Jobs Recovery Or One-Off Blip?
Last month, the BLS reported a stunning gain of 162k jobs in August. Accordingly, economists began to think the job market malaise may finally be thawing. The…
- RIA
Sequence Of Return Risk: The Math That Breaks Retirements
The sequence of return risk is the quiet reason two retirees with identical average returns can end up in very different places. Let’s start with an easy…
- RIA
Q4 Market Outlook: Strong Years Usually Finish Strong
🔎 At a Glance Q4 Market Outlook: Strong Years Usually Finish Strong Market Brief & Technical Review From Lance's Desk: Price Of Happiness: Missing The…
- RIA
Can Anthropic Outearn Its Obligations?
Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus, as reported by Reuters and the Financial Times, shows the company is growing faster than ever while committing to…
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Price Of Happiness: Missing The Things That Matter
The viral "price of happiness" number prices a survey answer, not the thing you feel, and it's quoted per person. The "price of happiness" chart came around…
- RIA
The Swap Market Says Treasury And AI Debt Is Not A Problem
Monday’s Tweet of the Day in the Daily Commentary highlighted rising swap spreads and noted that Treasury issuance is not the problem many pundits make it out…
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From TINA To TIGA: Diversification Pays Again
For more than a decade following the Financial Crisis, one acronym embodied the investment landscape: TINA, "there is no alternative." The logic behind TINA…
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Higher Yields Flipped The Math In The Investors’ Favor
Will 5.00% be the approximate ceiling for Treasury yields? Maybe, maybe not, but for bond investors, the risk-reward math is becoming very enticing even if…
- RIA
McDonald’s At Four-Year Lows Isn’t As Worrisome As Some Fear
McDonald's (MCD) hit four-year lows last week, down 22% on the year and 31% from its March high, marking a seventh straight weekly loss, its worst streak since…
- RIA
CMBS Losses Reach The AAA Tranche Again
Pimco faces losses of more than $35 million on a commercial mortgage bond tied to Philadelphia's Centre Square office towers, according to Bloomberg. The…
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Investor Optimism Wins As An Investment Strategy
The headlines have never sounded scarier, and the market keeps setting records, which is exactly why investor optimism wins over a full cycle, and why your own…
- RIA
Jefferies Sets 9000 Market Target: Everything Must Go Right
🔎 At a Glance Jefferies Sets 9000 Target For Market: Everything Must Go Right Market Brief & Technical Review From Lance's Desk: Consumer Credit Stress…
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Will Political Pressure Or Economic Hardship End The War?
Media speculation about a possible agreement between Iran and the US often focuses on President Trump’s incentives to end the war. In particular, high gasoline…
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Consumer Credit Stress: What The Data Really Shows
A viral stat claims credit card delinquencies just hit their worst level since 2008. However, the New York Fed's own data shows the opposite, and the real…
- RIA
No Relief At The Pump Despite Crude Falling
Crude peaked at $106 on September 15 and has since fallen nearly 15% to $90. Despite the recent downturn, gasoline futures are up 1.9% over the same period…
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Japan Breaks The ‘Debt Causes Inflation’ Narrative
A dollar today buys nearly twice as many Japanese yen as it did fifteen years ago. Crude oil, in yen terms, is up roughly 70% year to date. Food prices are…
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The FOMC Sees Zero Downside Economic Risks
The graph below, courtesy of Apollo, shows that not one FOMC member sees downside risks to the economy. This must be a very bullish signal, given that most…
- RIA
Dow Slides While Nasdaq Rallies: Omen Or Rotation?
The Dow has lost ground for three weeks running, down nearly 3.5% from its August 28 close, while the Nasdaq 100 is slightly higher over the same period. That…
- RIA
Earnings Mean Reversion: When Estimates Snap Back
Consensus earnings estimates now sit close to 50% above trend, and that gap is exactly where an earnings mean reversion tends to begin. This has been an…
- RIA
Low Jobless Claims Are ‘Half A Misnomer’
To justify hiking rates, Kevin Warsh and the Fed painted a rosy picture of the labor market. Interestingly, Warsh did so by citing record low jobless claims…
- RIA
The Fed Rate Hike Won’t Fix The Inflation It Targets
🔎 At a Glance The Fed Rate Hike Won't Fix The Inflation It Targets Market Brief & Technical Review From Lance's Desk: K-Shaped Economy: Reality Or…
- RIA
A Hike Like No Other
We hate to drone on about a Fed rate hike, but we want to stress the risks in the Fed's 25bps hike, as it is unlike any other hike we have seen in over thirty…
- RIA
K-Shaped Economy: Reality Or Media-Driven Perception
"What the K-shaped economy gets right, what it exaggerates, and what believing the worst version is costing a generation." The bottom half of American…
- RIA
Another Hike By Year End And No Cuts On The Horizon
The Fed hiked by 25 basis points and alluded to another hike, as the market expected and as we surmised in our prior Commentary. The more important takeaway…
- RIA
Has The Bond Market Already Done The Fed’s Job?
We publish this article hours before the Fed updates monetary policy at its September 16, 2026, FOMC meeting. Prior to its decision, the Fed has kept the Fed…
- RIA
Fed Hikes: Then What?
Our title, "Fed Hikes," is a bit presumptuous, but with Fed Funds futures assigning a 90% chance of a hike this afternoon, it's likely a done deal. Instead of…
- RIA
Amodei Says Slow Down: Trump And China Say No
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay, "We Must Pace the Frontier," on his personal website last weekend that is weighing on AI stocks. Amodei argues…
- RIA
Weak Buyback & Strong Auctions: Bullish Signals For Bonds
Last Thursday's Treasury buyback operation was deemed "weak" in the financial media as it bought back just $5.19 billion, less than the $6 billion investors…
- RIA
Portfolio Risk Management: Winning The Long Game (Chapter 5)
"How To Win The Long Game" is the final chapter of our series and we dig into the rules and guidelines for better investing and portfolio risk management…
- RIA
This Time Is Different? Earnings and Price Break 90-Year Trends
🔎 At a Glance September Market Weakness: The Setup Has Teeth Market Brief & Technical Review From Lance's Desk: US Debt Trap: A Crisis Without A Calendar -…
- RIA
US Debt Trap: A Crisis Without A Calendar
Wall Street's latest doom thesis says the Fed is trapped and a US debt trap is nearly here, but it never names a date, and the data says the trap door isn't…
- RIA
Crisis Will Test Our Mettle – Lessons From 9/11
Twenty-five years ago today, nearly 3,000 people lost their lives in the September 11th attacks, a tragedy that reshaped our country. We pause to honor those…
- RIA
Bessent Threatens ‘I Am The House’: Bond Traders Should Listen
At a speech Tuesday night at SMU, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened currency traders to bet against him on the Japanese yen, claiming, I am the house…
- RIA
Is Warsh Setting Up A Policy Error?
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's recent Hawkish Pivot raises a troubling question: is he actually worried about inflation, or is he changing his tune to build the…
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Hike Or Hold? Debating The Coming Fed Decision
Heading into the September 16 FOMC meeting, the debate over whether the Fed should raise rates or hold is heated. To help you appreciate the range of views, we…
- RIA
Yield Curve Tells Us More Than We Think
The BLS reported that payrolls jumped by 162,000, more than tripling estimates of a 50,000 gain. Unemployment held at 4.1%, and wages rose 0.3% for the month…
- RIA
Investing Myths Dismantled (Chapter 4 of 5)
"Investing Myths Dismantled" is chapter 4 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around "investing for the long run." Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor…
- RIA
September Market Weakness: The Setup Has Teeth
🔎 At a Glance September Market Weakness: The Setup Has Teeth Market Brief & Technical Review From Lance's Desk: AI Bears: Right About The Excess, May Be…
- RIA
Is CoreWeave At The Mercy Of The Bond Market?
CoreWeave, which rents GPU computing capacity to AI labs and hyperscalers, sits at the heart of a circular financing story that worries some investors…
- RIA
AI Bears: Right About The Excess, May Be Wrong On The Trade
While the AI bears focus on concentration and circular financing, the last tech overbuild was financed with debt, and this one is being paid for in cash…
- RIA
Global Bond Yields Fret Inflation & Deficits
For those worried about the impact of deficits and inflation on US bond yields, it's worth taking a trip around the world to get a better picture. Global bond…
- RIA
Market Valuation: Expensive CAPE Or Cheap PEG?
The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio just hit 41. Since 1881, the market valuation has been more expensive under CAPE only once. That was during the final…
- RIA
The Ternus Era Begins At Apple
After 15 years of guiding Apple to become the largest US company by market cap, Tim Cook stepped down as Apple's CEO effective September 1. In his place, John…
- RIA
Wall Streets Verdict: Warsh Turned Hawkish
Because Warsh doesn't believe in forward guidance, Friday's Jackson Hole speech may be the last window investors get into his thinking before the September 16…
- RIA
Warsh Makes A Hawkish Pivot
Traditionally, the annual Jackson Hole Symposium is where the Fed Chair signals which economic forces are shaping the Fed's thinking for the coming year. With…
- RIA
Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)
"Math of Loss" is chapter 3 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around "investing for the long run." Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2…
- RIA
Druckenmiller Warning: The Bond Market Already Priced It
🔎 At a Glance Druckenmiller Warning: The Bond Market Already Priced It Market Brief & Technical Review From Lance's Desk: Democratic Socialism: A Beautiful…
- RIA
Nvidia Revenue Growth Doubles
Nvidia reported record fiscal second-quarter results Wednesday with revenue more than doubling year over year to $96 billion. After initially falling on the…