Will Political Pressure Or Economic Hardship End The War?
Media speculation about a possible agreement between Iran and the US often focuses on President Trump’s incentives to end the war. In particular, high gasoline and diesel prices are creating real political pressure heading into the midterms, as we share below. Thus, the reasoning goes that Trump may cave to political pressure to reduce energy prices and enter into a peace agreement. While that argument has merit, the framing is incomplete. Iran's incentive to come to terms is arguably stronger. The IMF projects Iran's economy will contract by 6.1% in 2026, with inflation running over 70%…
The skinny
The skinny isn't ready yet — notes appear once the transcript is processed.