Will High Oil Prices Force The Fed’s Hand
The FOMC meeting concludes today with the rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM. Heading into today’s announcement, the market is placing 62% odds the Fed holds rates at the current 3.50% to 3.75% range. However, as we share below, market expectations for a September rate hike are running at 82%. Will high oil prices and their impact on inflation force the Fed’s hand today and/or in September? The FOMC dot plot from June showed the committee split evenly: nine of eighteen officials forecasted at least one hike before year-end, the other half favored…
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