The FOMC Sees Zero Downside Economic Risks
The graph below, courtesy of Apollo, shows that not one FOMC member sees downside risks to the economy. This must be a very bullish signal, given that most FOMC members are seasoned business veterans or economists. Further, they are supported by over 400 PhD’s in economics. Unfortunately, despite the experience and educational background of the FOMC members and their staff, their outlooks have little predictive value. Across the four major peaks of pessimism and troughs of optimism since 2012, economic growth was weaker six months later in 7 of the 8 cases. If we look at their forecasts 12…
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