AI Capex Risk Cuts Both Ways In The American Economy
Just over a year ago, I made the case that the deficit narrative would find its cure in artificial intelligence. Goldman Sachs has since published research that, on first reading, appears to refute. It isn't. But after more than thirty years of watching capex cycles play out, I've learned the right move when new data lands is to test the original argument against it. So far, that thesis from June 2025 holds. However, the AI capex risk profile has gotten sharper since then, and the argument needs tightening in a few places. The bull case and the tail risk are now the same buildout, but they…
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