Yield Curve Tells Us More Than We Think

RIA · Sep 8, 2026

The BLS reported that payrolls jumped by 162,000, more than tripling estimates of a 50,000 gain. Unemployment held at 4.1%, and wages rose 0.3% for the month. Below, we share a bullish reaction and a more measured one from Wall Street analysts. While helpful to know how analysts view the data, they often contradict one another, creating confusion. Instead, we prefer to know what the world's largest bond portfolio managers and traders think about the data and how it may impact the Fed and inflation. To understand their view, let's appreciate what the yield curve tells us. One month doesn't…