Are Flattening Curves And Style Rotations Deceptive Omens?
Bond market pundits often warn that bear yield curve flatteners or inverted yield curves ultimately lead to recessions. Similarly, some equity experts caution that periods of violent back-and-forth rotations among stock sectors and/or style factors are precursors to a market top. Additionally, the combination of a bearish flattening trend and volatile equity rotations leads some analysts to forecast a recession, with concerning market repercussions. The argument we present in this article is that predicting economic or financial market activity is not as simple as following two indicators…
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