Has The Bond Market Already Done The Fed’s Job?

RIA · Sep 16, 2026

We publish this article hours before the Fed updates monetary policy at its September 16, 2026, FOMC meeting. Prior to its decision, the Fed has kept the Fed Funds rate steady even as inflation runs stubbornly above target. At the same time, longer-term bond yields have risen appreciably and, in the process, are tightening financial conditions. The 10-year Treasury just surpassed 5%, and mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and equity discount rates have all risen similarly. The combination of no Fed tightening but relatively significant market tightening raises a question. If…