Shows / Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
A five-day-a-week morning podcast on Bitcoin market structure, on-chain data, ETF flows, derivatives, macro risk, and key signals for active investors. Each episode turns the latest Adler AM brief into a clear, data-driven audio update. Not financial advice.
Episodes
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders in Profit Since 2023: 72% Cushion
Bitcoin long-term holder realized price is $48.6K, with BTC 72% above it. LTHs in profit since Jan 2023, but their cost basis is falling.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Miner Fees Below 1%: S19 vs S21 Cost per BTC
Fees are just 0.64% of Bitcoin miner revenue. At $0.05/kWh, mining 1 BTC costs $86.7K with an Antminer S19 vs $44.3K with an S21.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Long Liquidations Hit $520M: Stress Index Near Peak
Bitcoin fell to $80.7K as $520M in longs were liquidated Oct 2-8. The Stress Index hit 49.9, near 3-month highs, then eased to 7. What's next?
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Falls to $82.8K After FOMC Minutes Signal Rate Hike
Fed minutes signal another rate hike by year-end. Bitcoin falls to $82.8K, Regime Score at -22. What FOMC said and the -30 bear threshold.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Price Drops Below $84K as Long Liquidations Spike
itcoin fell from $85.5K to $83.9K overnight as long liquidations and taker sell pressure spiked. Shakeout or start of sustained selling?
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Reduce Positions for 7th Week
Bitcoin long-term holders cut positions for a 7th week (-73.4K BTC). LTH SOPR at 1.18 shows profit-taking as the market absorbs supply.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Buying Pressure Hits 4.9 - Highest Since August
Bitcoin futures buying pressure hit 4.9, the highest since August, as open interest rose 9K BTC in 24h. The key level for new longs is $83K.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Rises to $73.7K
Bitcoin trades 14% above the short-term holder cost basis (realized price) at $73.7K, while the long-term holder cost basis falls to $48.8K.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Supply in Profit at 72% as Upward Momentum Fades
Bitcoin supply in profit hit its highest level since January and now stands at 72%, while price momentum has fallen to zero at $83K.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Profit-Taking Down 19%: Are Holders Selling Less?
Bitcoin realized 19% less profit than at the August peak despite a higher price. STH SOPR fell to 1.01 as short-term holder profit narrows.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Net Exchange Outflows Exceed 16K BTC per Day
Bitcoin exchange outflows averaged 16.1K BTC per day, the strongest weekly pace since October 2025, as futures positioning slips below zero.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
How Bitcoin Reacted to the Bitget Hack
Bitget hacked for $351M, withdrawals paused. On-chain data shows BTC kept leaving exchanges after the hack, with no panic inflows.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Is 37% Above Long-Term Holders' Cost Basis
Bitcoin is 37% above long-term holders' cost basis as MVRV recovers from breakeven. Compare today's drawdown to past bull market corrections.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin 6% Above Its Yearly Average for the First Time Since November
Bitcoin reclaims the 365D moving average at $80.5K for the first time since November 2025. Trend Pulse flips to bull mode. Key levels to watch.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Decline Slows Nearly 5x
Bitcoin long-term holder supply fell 21.7K BTC in 30 days vs 105.9K in late August. LTH SOPR slipped to 0.994 as BTC rose to $81.2K.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Rises 1.5%: Taker Order Pressure Turns Positive
Bitcoin recovered to $77.4K as Taker Order Pressure flipped to +0.86 and short liquidations dominated at +54.52. Is the buying edge real?
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin 7% Above Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $71.3K
Bitcoin at $76.2K vs STH realized price $71.3K: short-term holder profit cushion fell from 10% to 7% in a week. Exchange inflow P/L nears zero.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
92% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike: Risk of a Stock Pullback
Markets see a Fed rate hike as near-certain. History shows stocks often dip after a first hike. What that means for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Bollinger Bands Squeeze: No Clear Edge Yet
Bitcoin Bollinger Band width sits at 4.81%, below 6% for six days. Price holds $76.6K-$80.4K as taker flow turns neutral. No clear edge yet.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Holds Near $77K as Sellers Step Up Pressure
Bitcoin holds near $77K despite rising derivatives pressure and a persistent Coinbase discount. On-chain read on whether buyers can confirm.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Supply in Profit Hits 69% in Fastest Recovery
Bitcoin supply in profit hit 69% with a +41% 90-day change, one of the fastest on record. Why the speed shows scale, not a regime shift.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Sold 549K BTC After Squeeze
Bitcoin short-term holders sent 549K BTC to exchanges while STH-SOPR stayed above break-even. Price held most gains despite selling.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Sold 98K BTC, Selling Risk Remains
Bitcoin long-term holders sold 98.5K BTC since August as profit-taking resumed. Supply is stabilizing, but selling risk still remains.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Down 1.5%: Sellers Dominate as Open Interest Rises
Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $78.7K in two days as taker order pressure turned negative and open interest rose, a seller-driven leverage build-up.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Open Interest Is Rising Toward a Bullish Regime
Bitcoin open interest is rising: +11.2K BTC with price up 3.9%. Fresh long leverage, not short covering, lifts BTC toward a bullish regime.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Stablecoin Flows Neutral After 113 Days
Stablecoin exchange netflow turned positive after 113 days of outflows but is already fading. SSR is easing yet still elevated. Neutral.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Sentiment Index: 88 to 70, Still Extreme Greed
Bitcoin's Unified Sentiment Index cooled from 88 to 70 but stays in extreme greed - driven by Fear & Greed while votes and $77.6K price lag.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin LTH Distribution Hits 282K BTC After Short Squeeze
Long-term holder distribution rose to 282K BTC after the short squeeze as LTH MVRV hit 1.60. Can spot demand absorb the new supply?
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Open Interest Falls as Funding Rate Doubles
Bitcoin open interest fell 3.8% while funding rates doubled since Friday - long bias is rising within shrinking OI, raising long-squeeze risk.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Miners Resume Selling as Fee Revenue Stays Below 1%
Bitcoin's MPI turned positive for the first time since February as miners resume selling, while fee revenue stays below 1% - 377 days now.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Crosses Above 1 Again
Bitcoin's 90-day realized profit/loss ratio crossed above 1 as unrealized losses fell from 18% to 7% easing stress that still needs confirmation.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin On-Chain Flows Reverse, but Demand Stays Weak
Bitcoin Realized Cap flows turned net positive and apparent demand topped issuance for six days, but at 2.52 it sits in the weakest 10% since 2024.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Key Market Resistance - $83K
BTC reclaimed the STH cost basis at $68K and broke above SMA200/SMA111, putting short-term holders back in profit. SMA365 at $83K is resistance.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
75% of STH Supply in Profit, but Coins Flow to Exchanges
STH supply in profit jumped to 74.9% as BTC rebounded 22% to $77K, but net flow to exchanges crossed +25K BTC. Watch for distribution pressure.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin is Up 20% - What is Driving the Rally?
Bitcoin rose 20%, yet US spot premium is negative and open interest in BTC dropped 8.7%.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin in Strong Bull Regime, Short Liquidations Hit $1.42B
Bitcoin Regime Score hit Strong Bull (60) at $69.5K. The turn started Aug 17, before a $1.42B short squeeze amplified the breakout.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Buyers Dominate as Open Interest Declines
Net Taker Volume stays positive while Bitcoin open interest declines - buy-side demand without leverage. Watch for a break above $66.8K.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
LTH Barely Selling BTC: 1.30x Cost Basis, Low Risk Zone
Bitcoin holds 1.30x the LTH cost basis in the Low Risk zone. Supply near ATH with minimal spending shows no distribution. Watch a $74K reclaim.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Down 6%, No Capitulation Yet
STH MVRV at 0.94 and SOPR near 0.996 show Bitcoin short-term holders underwater, not capitulating. Watch $59.3K support, a SOPR reclaim of 1.0.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Coins in Profit Near Local Lows, Network Activity Up 23%
Bitcoin UTXOs in Profit sit near local lows at 53%, while 30-day transfer volume has jumped 23% from its April low, above its yearly average.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Miners: Fees at 2015 Lows, Hashrate Down 23%
Bitcoin miner fees sit near 2015 lows at 0.71% of revenue; hashrate is down 23% but holding. Watch a return above 1% for a regime shift.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Volatility Squeeze at 4% - ADX Confirms No Trend
Bitcoin volatility compressed to 3.8% and ADX fell to 11 - an extreme Bollinger Bands squeeze, no trend. Watch for band expansion, ADX above 20.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
New BTC buyers near breakeven, 3-6M cohort underwater
Bitcoin 0-3M holder NUPL is near breakeven while the 3-6M cohort sits at -0.14, its Realized Cap 69.6% below peak. Watch 3-6M to reclaim zero.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
MVRV Z-Score Falls to 0.41: Correction Without Capitulation
MVRV Z-Score at 0.41, below its 1.69 mean but above zero. BTC holds ~13% over the $57.6K cost basis. Lose it and $46.1K stress opens up.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
LTHs are Realizing Losses, but Their Cost Basis is 30% Below the Market Price
LTH SOPR below 1.0 does not mean the entire long-term holder cohort is under pressure. The average LTH cost basis is $49.3K, while Bitcoin trades at $64.3K, so…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Rebounds to $64.6K, but Fresh Demand has not Returned
The current price rebound is not confirmed by flows. The apparent demand-to-issuance ratio and net age flow are recovering from their July lows but remain…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Price Prediction August 2026: Macro & ETF Outlook
Bitcoin price prediction for August 2026 with historical performance, support and resistance, macro outlook, ETF flows, and on-chain data.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin remains in the high-stress zone: the indicator reached 71.5
This brief shows how the balance of supply in profit and loss has changed over the past year and how stress has evolved during the past month. The picture…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin sentiment is deteriorating, but the market is not in the Fear zone yet
The market is still in the Neutral zone, but sentiment continues to deteriorate and is approaching the Fear threshold.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin is Shifting from Speculators to Long-Term Holders
The short-term holder share is near multi-year lows, while the long-term holder share has approached historical highs. This points to lower coin turnover and…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
The market is boring, but stress is back for the second time in three days
Local stress rose to 16 points. The impulse was driven almost entirely by price movement, while exchange flows and derivatives do not confirm it.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Price Remains Weak While Exchange Flows Stay Neutral
Price weakness has not been accompanied by an increase in supply on exchanges. BTC inflows continue to decline, while Netflow remains neutral. Coins are not…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Supply in Profit Rose to 56%, but the Quarterly Trend Remains Negative
Around 56% of BTC supply is now in profit, compared with 47% at the June low. Market structure has improved, but the 90-day change remains negative: the…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin valuation is four times lower than its historical average
Bitcoin is in an undervaluation zone based on the MVRV Z-Score, but full capitulation, marked by the metric falling below zero, has not occurred. Realized P/L…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Holders' Realized Losses exceeded the 2022 peak by 19%
We compare the current bear market phase with the 2022 cycle through realized profit and loss.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
US Investors are buying Bitcoin again: ETFs have drawn $439M so far this week
The US spot market is emerging from a period of maximum pressure. The Coinbase discount has not disappeared, but it has narrowed significantly, while the…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Volatility Has Fallen 31% in July, Leverage Is Declining: Liquidation Cascade Risk Has Decreased
This brief examines what is happening inside the volatility compression. Low volatility is neutral on its own - its meaning depends on the direction of…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Stablecoins Have Been Leaving Exchanges for 35 Straight Days: Demand Is Absent
This brief examines the balance between supply and demand through exchange flows. As long as stablecoins continue to leave exchanges and Bitcoin does not enter…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
New capital inflows near yearly lows, STHs continue selling at a loss
This brief examines how weak inflows of new capital coincide with short-term holders realizing losses. Young coins account for a minimal share of realized…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Long-Term Holders Accumulated 371,000 BTC Over the Past 30 Days
Bitcoin LTH supply hit a record 16.34M BTC, with 371K absorbed in 30 days, while CDD 30D stays low at 313M. Scarcity is building, demand is not.