Shows / Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
A five-day-a-week morning podcast on Bitcoin market structure, on-chain data, ETF flows, derivatives, macro risk, and key signals for active investors. Each episode turns the latest Adler AM brief into a clear, data-driven audio update. Not financial advice.
Episodes
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bullish Signal Strengthens as Indicator Agreement Reaches 79%
This brief explains how the local bearish regime shifted to a bullish one and why the current move appears confirmed.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Gains 3% in 24 Hours on Fresh Demand
We examine what powered the daily move: aggressive market buying or the forced closing of short positions.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Market Underwater: Adjusted NUPL Below Zero for Six Weeks
The market has remained in unrealized loss territory for six weeks. STH moved underwater first and were also the first to begin recovering, while the aggregate…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Open Interest Falls 12% in 24 Hours: The Market Is Shedding Leverage
The price decline is accompanied by a sustained reduction in open interest and a weakening pressure index. At this point, it looks more like positions are…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
STHs are buying the dip like in February: seller pressure is easing
Buying pressure is once again outweighing selling pressure at the lows, repeating the February pattern, while price is holding near the Cost Basis of the…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
The rally attempt failed: sellers pushed Bitcoin lower again with $92.7M in sell pressure
This brief explains why initiative in futures still remains with sellers despite a local rebound attempt. Cumulative buy delta is shrinking quickly, and any…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
The Fuel is running out: Stablecoin Market Cap has shrunk by $3 Billion
A brief on how stablecoin inflows - the main fuel of the crypto market - have dried up over the past two months. The logic is simple: without fresh dollar…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Strategy Sells 3,588 BTC, but Price holds near $63K
The first major net BTC sale by Strategy in several years and the futures market's reaction to the announcement. The sale was driven by obligations, not by a…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Leverage demand has recovered: futures are trading above spot for the first time in a month
The futures market has turned toward greater willingness to take risk: the gap between futures and spot has moved back into positive territory, and the…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Bottom 2026? First BUY Since Nov 2022, Not Confirmed
This brief covers the first BUY signal in a long time from Net UTXO Supply Ratio and whether the Supply in Loss metric confirms the start of the final phase of…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Buyers are pushing the price higher, but without open interest growth the bounce is stalling
A brief on why the current bounce looks fragile. The logic is simple: buyers are pressing the market aggressively, but without growth in open interest the move…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Exchange Inflows are 50% above February, SOPR is Holding Below 1.0
The current drawdown looks heavier than February's: exchange inflows have increased, while SOPR below 1.0 shows that the market is realizing losses on average…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
LTH Hold a Record 16M BTC as MVRV Approaches a Three-Year Low
A brief on BTC approaching the LTH cost basis and why long-term holder behavior points to the market nearing the final phase of the bear cycle.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
135K BTC Has Left US Bitcoin ETFs
A brief on how demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs has completely dried up and turned into a sustained outflow. As long as momentum stays near historical lows, the…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Fifth month of selling at a loss, but holder support still sits below the market
Net realized P/L is persistently negative, which means the market is systematically locking in losses. But the cost basis of most holder cohorts is still below…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Strategy (MSTR) is down 78% from its peak
This brief is about how MSTR's deep drawdown and Strategy's shift from aggressive buying to defense are changing the role of the largest corporate BTC buyer…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bullish demand has dropped to zero - fuel is now on the side of the shorts
A brief on how bullish demand has run out and momentum is shifting to sellers: Net Taker has pulled back to zero, while long positions dominate liquidations.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Short-term holders are losing capital: -56%, while LTH show almost no drawdown
This brief is about short-term holders moving into loss while capital inside the STH group is shrinking sharply. At the same time, the LTH group shows almost…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Fresh capital is not entering Bitcoin, support is holding at $58.4K
Price is compressing toward Adjusted Realized Price as the main support zone, while the change in new capital inflow has turned negative. For now, the market…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Gold was bought back, Bitcoin was not: BTC fell below $64K after the Fed
This brief is about the Fed's hawkish pause and how differently assets reacted: gold was bought after the drop, while Bitcoin remained under pressure. The…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
The Second Capitulation Wave Is Almost Twice as Weak as February’s Panic
This brief is about the second wave of capitulation and why the fading strength of the selloff matters more than the panic itself. The logic is simple: if the…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
$60K becomes the new accumulation zone: the cycle's potential bottom is $48K
This brief is about how holder conditions and fundamental valuation have converged in the same zone. Supply moved deeply underwater around $60K, while CVDD…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
The rally off $60K: bullish taker demand is back, Funding Rate remains positive
The bounce off $60K is being driven by returning buyers, not a short squeeze. Taker Buy Sell Ratio closed above 1.0 in 8 of the last 10 days, while Funding…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin is moving onto exchanges and increasing sell pressure, while stablecoins are leaving
This brief is about the reversal in flows from May to the present. The logic is simple: BTC inflows to exchanges increase supply pressure, while stablecoin…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
The Puell Multiple is declining - miners are entering the stress zone
Miner metrics have entered a stress zone comparable to post-halving drawdowns, but the market has not yet reached a full-scale capitulation on the scale of…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
$12B Left the Network, Loss-Taking Sales Dominate
Capital is leaving the Bitcoin network, and participant behavior confirms a capitulation regime - sales are being made at a loss. This brief examines how close…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
22 Days of Net Losses: MVRV Z Cooled to 0.32
For 22 straight days, the market has been realizing net losses. But MVRV Z has already cooled to 0.32, versus a historical average of 1.71.Stress is there…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Price is rising, Open Interest is falling: a rebound without new leverage
Bitcoin bounced 3.7% off $60K, but Open Interest fell 6% with positive funding - a short-covering rebound, not new leverage. Watch OI for confirmation.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Tests the February Low: $7B in Losses, Nearest Support $54K
Bitcoin is testing the February low, while the current net realized loss of -$7B is already heavier than it was directly at the February price low. At the same…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
$62K Under Pressure Again: Fear at the Extreme
Over the past month, Bitcoin has pulled back after the May recovery and returned to a test of the February low at 60K - the level that became the local bottom…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bearish impulse accelerated to -59: taker-order pressure is moving negative again
Over the past month, the market has pulled back from the May highs to February levels. Both charts capture the same reversal, but at different speeds: the slow…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
The May Rally Has Been Erased: Bitcoin Under Pressure From Spot and Futures
Since the start of May, the market regime has completely reversed. What previously pushed price higher is now working against it. Two charts show how exchange…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Volatility Fell 56%: The Spring Is Loaded
Bitcoin realized volatility fell 56% to multi-year lows as market cap grows slower than realized cap. A coiled, de-risked setup. Watch the 200-day average.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
7,048 BTC Were Withdrawn From IBIT, Strategy Wallets Sent Coins to Coinbase Prime
BlackRock and Strategy-affiliated wallets moved BTC into Coinbase Prime infrastructure. A sale is not yet confirmed, but the market has received a new supply…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Sellers are returning, buyers are leaving
BTC is returning to exchanges after months of outflows, while stablecoins are simultaneously leaving exchanges - this is a double risk-off signal.
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Sellers Regain Control: Why Bitcoin's Rebound Is Losing Fuel
Bitcoin bounced +2.7% from the May 23 low, but the underlying futures microstructure deteriorated much faster than price. In this episode, we break down why…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Sellers Increase Pressure: +34K BTC in One Week
In this episode of Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, we break down last week’s local BTC pressure setup: +18K BTC moved onto exchanges, while U.S. spot Bitcoin…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Sellers are Pressing: STH Underwater, Network Realizes Losses
May 2026 has put short-term holders in a vulnerable position: BTC is trading below their aggregate cost basis, while Net Realized P/L has moved into negative…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bitcoin Bounced Toward $77K, but Coinbase Premium Shows No Demand From the U.S.
BTC bounced toward $77K after positive geopolitical headlines around Iran, but the underlying market structure remains unconfirmed. In this episode, we break…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bullish Impulse Broken: Macro Pressure Intensifies
In this episode of Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, we break down why Bitcoin’s bullish impulse has weakened just as macro pressure intensifies. Bitcoin Slow…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Supply in Profit Recovered to 63%, but STH-SOPR Has Not Held Above 1.0
Supply in Profit has recovered after the capitulation phase, but short-term holders are still not realizing sustained profits. There is still no behavioral…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Bears Are Back in Control of the Bitcoin Market Structure
Two structural signals confirm one conclusion: bulls have lost control. The market failed to hold above the zero zone, sellers absorbed the bullish impulse…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Three attempts - zero breakouts: STH are capping growth near $82K
Bitcoin approached the $82K zone three times and pulled back three times: STH-SOPR shows that short-term holders are using every rally to exit, confirming…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
The Bulls Are Running Out of Steam: Taker Pressure Is Falling, Funding Remains Negative
A brief on two signals working together: taker volumes point to a weakening bullish impulse, while funding confirms that traders are not rushing to open longs…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
STH Loss Pressure Hits Zero as Bitcoin Holds Above $80K
Bitcoin is trading above $80,000, and STH Loss Pressure has dropped to zero for the first time in several months. At the same time, the STH share of total BTC…
- Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Retail in Bitcoin Is Back in the Game: Demand Rose from -8.2% to +4.4% in 6 Weeks
Bitcoin retail demand momentum has turned sharply higher, but the recovery is still not fully confirmed by absolute transfer volume.In Morning Brief #167, we…