Shows / RIA
Episodes
- RIA
Democratic Socialism: A Beautiful Cake With A Bitter Aftertaste
Democratic Socialism promises affordability and fairness. The bill, from Caracas to Copenhagen, is something else entirely. On January 1st, a self-described…
- RIA
Bitcoin Up 22%: Has The Halving Cycle Begun?
Bitcoin peaked a year ago, hitting an all-time high of $126,210 in October 2025, and has since fallen more than 50%, bottoming near $58,000 two months ago. The…
- RIA
Druckenmiller Has A Warning: Don’t Mess With Markets
Famed investor Stanley Druckenmiller published a Wall Street Journal opinion piece (Let The Bond Market Speak) on Monday, in which he warns Treasury Secretary…
- RIA
Productivity On Gilligan’s Island: Episode 2
Over 7 years ago, we wrote a piece using the 1960s TV sitcom Gilligan's Island to provide a simple example of why productivity is the most important driver of…
- RIA
TGA Could Turn A Small Buyback Into A Market Mover
The Treasury General Account (TGA) is Treasury's cash balance held at the Federal Reserve. Its balance is the net of cash inflows like tax receipts and…
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Will Warsh Talk Down The Hawks At Jackson Hole?
Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair on Friday, August 28, at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Wyoming. The meeting occurs…
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Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)
"Investor Psychology" is chapter 2 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around "investing for the long run." Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor In the…
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The Basis Trade: Is The Bond Market Signal Distorted?
🔎 At a Glance The Basis Trade: Is The Bond Market Signal Distorted? Market Brief & Technical Review From Lance's Desk: Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt…
- RIA
Nasdaq Is About To Make Wall Street Sleepy
Starting December 6, 2026, Nasdaq will offer a trading session starting at 9 p.m. to 4 a.m. ET. The new hours, in addition to the standard 9:30 a.m. to 4:00…
- RIA
Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong
A 5% long bond isn't the crisis, it's the receipt, and the fifteen years when money was free did far more damage to growth than normal interest rates ever…
- RIA
The US Treasury Doubles Down On Buybacks
The U.S. Treasury announced yesterday that it will at least double its liquidity-supporting buyback operations for Treasury notes and bonds with 10 or more…
- RIA
The Gamma Cliff: August 21st- Mark The Date
Cem Karsan is flagging August 21, the monthly options expiration (OPEX) date, as the setup for what he calls a gamma cliff. On August 21st, one of the year's…
- RIA
Three Percent Real TIPS Yields: Boring But Valuable
Would you consider investing in a bond that earns more than three percent after accounting for inflation? What if that security has zero chance of default?…
- RIA
AI For The People Or Meta’s Bottom Line?
Last week, we wrote two short articles within our Commentary summarizing Mark Zuckerberg’s new stance on AI. We were skeptical of his “AI for the people” essay…
- RIA
Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)
"Think Like An Investor" is chapter 1 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around "investing for the long run." There is a chart that lands in your feed…
- RIA
Weak Retail Sales Take Rate Hikes Off The Table
Friday's weak retail sales report did more damage to the hawkish case. Sales fell 0.6% in July against expectations for a 0.1% gain. The control group, the…
- RIA
Record Highs: Should You Chase The Rally?
🔎 At a Glance Record Highs: Should You Chase The Rally? Market Brief & Technical Review From Lance's Desk: Yen Intervention Narrative: What's True And Not…
- RIA
Yen Intervention Narrative: What’s True And Not
Japan didn't just spark a currency crisis; it reminded everyone that the Fed has quietly backstopped the dollar for 60 years. The Yen intervention is not new…
- RIA
Tariff Refunds Soften The Fed’s Passthrough Warning
According to an article published Wednesday in The Wall Street Journal, more than 40 S&P 500 companies have reported roughly $9.6 billion in tariff…
- RIA
Wall Street To Support Data Center Growth
Nvidia announced an agreement with Wall Street heavies, Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR. The six Wall Street firms will…
- RIA
Lacy Hunt Turns Bearish Bonds: Studying His Reversal
Economist Lacy Hunt has been a bond bull longer than most money managers have been in the business. Recently, he made a surprising U-turn on his bullish…
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Abel Takes Charge at Berkshire Hathaway
Greg Abel just completed his first full quarter as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, taking the throne from Warren Buffett. In his first earnings announcement…
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Leveraged ETFs: Math Often Trumps Hype
The Tweet on the right below irresponsibly suggests that if SK Hynix shares double, as Cantor Fitzgerald's $300 target implies, a 2x leveraged fund like SKHA…
- RIA
Earnings Drive Both Bull & Bear Markets
"Earnings drive market outcomes. In 151 years, every single 20% market decline was accompanied by a double-digit earnings decline, with zero exceptions." Every…
- RIA
BLS And ADP Reports Take Rate Hike Off The Table
The Friday BLS employment report showed the economy lost 23k jobs. Along with last Wednesday's ADP report (+44k), the two reports suggest the spring pickup in…
- RIA
AI Narrative Risk: The Hyperscaler Story Changes Again.
🔎 At a Glance AI Narrative Risk: The Hyperscaler Story Changes Again Market Brief & Technical Review From Lance's Desk: Sound Money: Be Careful What You…
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Sound Money: Be Careful What You Wish For
A return to sound money has become the rallying cry for a growing crowd of investors, politicians, and commentators who are, understandably, fed up. Fed up…
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AMD and SanDisk Set A High Bar For Nvidia
AMD and SanDisk (SNDK) delivered earnings beats this week, yet both stocks fell. AMD posted record revenue up 50% year over year, with data center revenue more…
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Palantir Earnings Provide Hope For The Software Sector
Software stocks have taken a beating this year on fears that AI will erode pricing power across the industry. While the fear may be genuine for some companies…
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Hidden Debt: Is Our Hyperscaler Thesis Wrong – Part 2
Having just published Carnage In Hyperscaler Credit, a reader pointed us to an article from Nikkei Asia titled "Five US Tech Giants’ Hidden Debt Soars To…
- RIA
The BEA Is Reformulating Its Key Inflation Gauge
According to A Statistical Revamp Is About To Lower Inflation by The Wall Street Journal, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is reformulating its Core PCE…
- RIA
Bessent Is Buying Yen In Support Of US Bonds?
The US Treasury bought Japanese yen last Friday and again Monday morning in its first coordinated intervention in the currency since 2011, following Japan's…
- RIA
Leverage Turned A Winning Thesis Into A Stupid Bet
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Fund turned $225 million into as much as $45 billion. Not bad for a 24-year-old with little experience. In June…
- RIA
Bonds In Your Portfolio: Why Ditching Them Is The Wrong Move
Lately, it seems like you can't open a financial publication without stumbling across another article declaring the 60/40 portfolio dead. The pitch is…
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The Momentum Crash: Is It Over?
🔎 At a Glance Is The Momentum Crash Over? Market Brief & Technical Review From Lance's Desk: AI Bear Case: What Skeptics Get Right And Wrong - RIA Market…
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Long Bonds Are Weary Of Warsh’s Inflation Resolve
At Wednesday's FOMC press conference, Chair Warsh made it clear that the Fed's number one goal is returning inflation to its 2% target. The reaction in the…
- RIA
AI Bear Case: What Skeptics Get Right And Wrong
The AI "bear case" isn't one argument; it's three. Burry on earnings. Bernstein on circular financing. MIT on revenue. Two are half right. One falls apart on…
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A September Rate Hike Is On The Table
Despite the market assigning a moderate 35% chance of a rate hike at yesterday's FOMC meeting, the Fed left rates unchanged. However, three dissenting voters…
- RIA
Will High Oil Prices Force The Fed’s Hand
The FOMC meeting concludes today with the rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM. Heading into today’s announcement, the…
- RIA
Carnage In Hyperscaler Credit: Really?
“Carnage in hyperscaler bond land”, claims the Tweet below. The graph below the Tweet shows “exploding” yield spreads for hyperscalers. These hyperbolic…
- RIA
Chip Momentum Is Fading Despite Strong Earnings
Last week, chip maker Intel delivered its seventh consecutive quarterly earnings beat with revenue growing 25% year over year, its fastest growth since 2011…
- RIA
Are US Treasuries Still A Safe Asset?
Every time interest rates rise, the "bond bears" flood the media with commentary suggesting US Treasuries are no longer a "safe asset." The 30-year Treasury…
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Small Caps Are Quietly Winning While Mega Caps Wobble
Thursday's selloff, led by Alphabet down 7% and Tesla down nearly 15%, was a great example of a story that has been unfolding throughout most of the year…
- RIA
The AI Capex Bill Comes Due
🔎 At a Glance The AI Capex Bill Comes Due Market Brief & Technical Review From Lance's Desk: AI Capex Depreciation Risk Is The Catch To Record Earnings…
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AI Capex Depreciation Risk Is The Catch To Record Earnings
The second-quarter earnings season is in full swing. So far, the results are landing in line or better than the upwardly revised Wall Street estimates. That's…
- RIA
Are Oil Prices Driving The Iran Conflict?
In physics, kinetic equilibrium describes a system in which forces are balanced, and motion continues at a steady, unchanging rate. Felix Vezina-Poirier of BCA…
- RIA
Prediction Markets: A New Sentiment Gauge For Traders
Prediction markets leader Polymarket has a daily contract that bets on whether the S&P 500 opens higher the next trading day. Yesterday's contract, as…
- RIA
Can SpaceX Fire On All Cylinders?
SpaceX's June IPO raised $75 billion, resulting in an initial valuation of $1.77 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history. SpaceX, encompassing its…
- RIA
Alphabet And Intel: Q2 AI Earnings Kick Off
Alphabet reports earnings after today's close, and Intel follows tomorrow. Together, they provide a first clue as to whether AI-related spending and investment…
- RIA
Moonshot AI Raises Red Flags In The AI Industry
Moonshot AI, a Chinese company, just released AI model Kimi K3. Kimi K3 is a 2.8 trillion-parameter open-source AI model that the company claims is the largest…
- RIA
The Deficit Spending Problem With A Non-Political Fix
The national deficit debate usually focuses on entitlement and defense spending. While they have merit, they miss the single largest driver of America's…
- RIA
Why Retail Traders Consistently Underperform Over Time
Decades of data across global markets reach the same verdict: the more frequently retail traders trade, the worse they perform. The infrastructure has never…
- RIA
Momentum Meltdown Catches Traders By Surprise
🔎 At a Glance Momentum Meltdown Catches Traders By Surprise Market Brief & Technical Review From Lance's Desk: Home Affordability: Better Than Headlines…
- RIA
Inflation Will Be A Thing Of The Past- Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh delivered his first semiannual testimony to Congress earlier this week. In it, he used every opportunity to stress the urgency of returning…
- RIA
Home Affordability: Better Than Headlines Suggest
The doom feed says home affordability locked a generation out. The math on the payment you actually write says something the headlines won't. Here are the…
- RIA
Spotting Market Bubbles: Why History Says It’s Nearly Impossible
If you knew you were standing inside a stock market bubble, you wouldn't be standing in it for long. You'd sell. So would I, and so would everyone reading…
- RIA
US Energy Efficiency: We Have Come A Long Way
The graph below paints a very interesting picture of US energy efficiency and a key structural economic change in this country. For roughly 25 years after…
- RIA
Big Bank Earnings Kick Off Earnings Season
🔎 At a Glance Big Bank Earnings Kick Off Earnings Season Market Brief & Technical Review From Lance's Desk: AI Capex Risk Cuts Both Ways In The American…
- RIA
The Feds Ambiguous Guidance
The FOMC released the minutes from Chair Warsh's first meeting on Wednesday, and the best word to describe the Fed's advice is "ambiguous." Merriam-Webster…
- RIA
AI Capex Risk Cuts Both Ways In The American Economy
Just over a year ago, I made the case that the deficit narrative would find its cure in artificial intelligence. Goldman Sachs has since published research…